well, SCS is getting out of US hands. I mean SCS is a front, though well-protected by the US Fleet, might (in all probability) get overruned confidently should the Chinese decide to invade Taiwan. Yes, US of course will give a thrashing they would never expect, but the cost will be aggravatingly high and will put US policymakers under a lot of domestic scrutiny.
On the other hand, if US cashes in on a Indo-Pak-China war, you know what happens? Pakistan gets erased from the world map completely......COMPLETELY. It's a front India won't hesitate to pulverize before taking China head-on. But what happens next is a complete game-plan by the US military.
The US's only significance in the IOR is the Diego Garcia. Most, not most but all the countries of Asia and SE Asia are SOVEREIGN, including Pakistan. That means a US base the likes of which exist in the Middle East and Europe are almost non-existent because sovereign nations treat such large bases of another established nation on their soils as humiliation and obviously don't take it kindly. Here in comes Pakistan.
Of all the good and bad in this world, whether done by the US or it's allies, one thing remained constant, and that's PAKISTAN. Afghanistan is a lost cause...... and it's strategic significance has reduced considerably for the US. But Pakistan still is and will be a CIA/US military hotspot. The location of Pakistan is such that if a faraway nation like the US is able to establish itself through it's bases there, it's presence will be enough to subdue the India-China front on the East and Middle East-Afghan front on the west. Pakistan, for fortunate or unfortunate reasons or otherwise, did not allow that to happen till now
Now, with Pakistan gone and the Indian front considerably weakened due to an Indo-China war, it becomes imperative that India would need outside help, preferably the US, to help rebuild its economy. US will only oblige if it's effectively given control of some/all of the Pakistani territories which India decimated earlier. They can even cite reasons/threat/coerce the future GoI then to consider their proposals of setting up their base/s there. Now, obvious effects of that will be their full-fledged establishment in Asia as a dominant bulwark against Russian "hegemony" and not to mention then that our nuclear programme is going to get easily scuttled/stolen/destroyed. Old habits die hard. Our entire security apparatus will be at grave risk, not only terrorism, but also our nuclear weapons programme and nuclear second-strike capabilities due to their snooping capabilities.
As for China, China will exist but without Tibet and/or Xinjiang. Their presence in Central Asia will be effectively nullified in any land war with India.
I can tell you if China goes against established global norms, it is forcing us to make an eternal enemy of them without any ANY reason. But, there will be nothing as a Limited War, it's going to be World War and a 3rd one already. So ultimate loser in the war.......BHARAT and no-one else. China will just break-up by itself. It won't matter to us anymore after a war with China, the "China" won't exist anyhow, we are not going to capture their lands and properties. But the ultimate winner, yes its the grand old USofA. They are right to cash in on a future third-party conflict just like they cashed in on others' weaknesses all though these years (beginning Cold War).
So, I think we must calm down a little and think through a little more. There's still time, but the future is bleak if China doesn't mend it's ways.
