India China LAC & International Border Discussions

[cereal killer]

Dear Friends,
Just wanna know can we handle two front war which seems likely to happen in current scenario as our western and eastern front is disturbed.I am asking this as I am layman and not expert like forum members.As citizen of the nation just want to know our preparedness.I support Modiji and his core team members,but what I see is that we are begging to China for status quo.why can't we for evicting them from our territory.
Thanks
Jai Hind

That's a long answer bro but I shared my views on it few days ago on this thread. Some others have also shared it. U can find through some digging

 

[right wing]

Some OSINT are claiming this is happening because of the pak defense budget released today and this happens every year?Can some one confirm ?are we sure this is Chinese related?

Nothing can be done if one is in denial mode... That is fact no one disputes..

What is disputed is not the clash but 72 ITBP men hospitalized and the attempt to paint that there were no injuries on the other side by some in media.

 

[Hiranyaksha]

Problem with a "War" is that there is no guarantee of a favourable outcome. once it starts, you never know when it will end.

True. Which is why Chinese have spread out their forces across the border. so that even short limited skirmish victory cannot be allocated to the Indian armed forces.

But I still think war can be fought. May be in Ladakh sector that too just before onslaught of winter when MSR will be cut off from both sides. Then the Iron of the men will be tested , which I am pretty sure that Indian armed forces will win. For that we need to stall Chinese till that time.

 

[right wing]

Such skepticism would not have been warranted if one knew a little more about The veterans being a little more concerned about the nationals security and the state of affairs of their serving brotherns.

Veterans population of the country is about 2.6 million ex-servicemen, and 60,000 widows/ war widows, i.e., a combined total of 3.2 million. If you wish to muffle their voices that would not be in order. They before being anything else are the honourable citizens of India with all democratic rights, Many of them have second or third generations serving the armed forces.

If one is a little more aware, it is not hard to find how more than 40 percent of politicians, prominent policy influencers, opinion makers etc in the USA and Western societies are Ex-Servicemen and Veterans. Indian culture however is absolutely contrary to that where Servicemen and veterans contrary to belief face hostile attitudes and environment, especially in an urban milieu.

No one is asking any special privilege but only their normal right of citizens. In fact the veteran community in India is rather not vocal and in my opinion, must play their socio-political role deserving their large numbers. That is what is expected in a Democracy....

All other charges leveled are prejudicial, made up and contrary to facts..

All these doesn't mean that u guys don't have bad apples...that too in a plenty a form as police force or DRDO/OFB folks or any other govt wing.

 

[right wing]

True. Which is why Chinese have spread out their forces across the border. so that even short limited skirmish victory cannot be allocated to the Indian armed forces.

But I still think war can be fought. May be in Ladakh sector that too just before onslaught of winter when MSR will be cut off from both sides. Then the Iron of the men will be tested , which I am pretty sure that Indian armed forces will win. For that we need to stall Chinese till that time.

That is precisely the aim..if there be war drag it to when it suits us best.

 

[cereal killer]

Our exports to china are also just 6% .In SCS we cant do anything other than some statements.But killing the import machine will have profound efect on our economy because alternate suppliers develop here who will intimately compete with Chinese in world market which is looking for an alternative for china.Win for us loss for them.

Bhai what you are saying is indeed good but for that we need proper substitutes in our country which are frankly not there yet. Most of it includes electrical equipments & agriculture sectors too. Moreover Chinese also have invested in India. According to India our Exports to China are around 16%. So it is easier said than done. You can Google on it whether it is possible or not.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

This is the most important battle that India needs to win as a nation. Unfortunately, we are right now barely scraping through.

Personally, I feel that we will stick and stay put. No draw down. Publicly it may be claimed, as Dokalam. But beefing up of forces on either side will take place significantly, as at Dokalam today.


Lets see how this works out.

How are Indian and Chinese military postures at Doklam today compared to pre-2017....?
Also, as Indian and chinese forces are deployed in strength all across the LAC, and as most supplies for the few hundred thousand chinese troops and support elements come from thousands of kilometers away.. compared to the shorter Indian supply lines.. will there be any benefit for India to drag out this hightened deployment beyond winter.. And if that happens, how will China's games in SCS be affected?

 

[captscooby81]

I really don't understand the nuclear test solution what is the point of doing more test if we don't have intention to use nukes at all , By doing these test are we showing to chinese we will use nukes ? if that's what we want to achieve the onus is already on china to call our nuclear development bluff , Exactly like how the onus of calling paki tactical nuclear bluff is on us . Let china take the gamble push the country to brink of extinction and then see if a nuke doesn't fly over to peking or not .

I think India should now conduct series of major nuclear tests after completing necessary border infrastructure. Anything less than that will not work. This is the time to show that we carry biggest swords. Saving India's image for being major power who can resolve its own issue without foreign intervention.

 

[M.J.K]

well they violated our sovereignty so this option is not out of the table in my opinion. We can weaponize Vietnam, Taiwan along with our boats (may be aircraft carrier) patrolling in Formosa Strait (Taiwan Strait), abbidding international laws, yet violating Chinese sovereignty. So option is still there.

CPEC is still our integral territory - not Chinese . so targeting it will not be attacking their sensitivity.

SCS is their backyard we cannot do any thing meaningful militarily than the US or Japanese or the Vietnamese .We can do a few statements but that doesn't threaten them it merely annoys them.

Though i am not sure whether it is us holding ourselves back from selling brahmos to vietnam and philiphines or russia or vietnamese and philippines themselves.

 

[Hiranyaksha]

That is precisely the aim..if there be war drag it to when it suits us best.

Fighting a war will not solve it then and there . Because just after fighting and winning the war. We will have to embrace China abit and so that we can make it look as there is not much distance between us, as war will be seen as us moving towards west. And that my friend will be difficult situation for both of the leaderships.

So war is a far worse option which should not be taken. Testing series of major weapon systems and our presence in 9 dash line + Formosa Strait along with pushing Chinese in Himalayas is much better option.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Fighting a war will not solve it then and there . Because just after fighting and winning the war. We will have to embrace China abit and not to make it look much distance with us as they we will moving towards west. and that my friend will be difficult for both of the leaderships.

So war is a far worse option which should not be taken. Testing series of major weapon systems and our presence in 9 dash line + Formosa Strait along with pushing Chinese in Himalayas is much better option.

Our involvement in any major war against china will most likely be part of an anti chinese alliance.

 

[cereal killer]

I really don't understand the nuclear test solution what is the point of doing more test if we don't have intention to use nukes at all , By doing these test are we showing to chinese we will use nukes ? if that's what we want to achieve the onus is already on china to call our nuclear development bluff , Exactly like how the onus of calling paki tactical nuclear bluff is on us . Let china take the gamble push the country to brink of extinction and then see if a nuke doesn't fly over to peking or not .

Yeah & face possible sanctions as well. This Nuclear Joke has to stop. Like China doesn't know we are a nuclear country. India can do so many things that can rattle China. Only question is whether India is willing to do that?

 

[Hiranyaksha]

I really don't understand the nuclear test solution what is the point of doing more test if we don't have intention to use nukes at all , By doing these test are we showing to chinese we will use nukes ? if that's what we want to achieve the onus is already on china to call our nuclear development bluff , Exactly like how the onus of calling paki tactical nuclear bluff is on us . Let china take the gamble push the country to brink of extinction and then see if a nuke doesn't fly over to peking or not .

I am not sure but by what I understood that our higher yield capacity nuclear test failed in pokhran. Until overtly proven it makes no difference. and we should also conduct tests of other major weapon systems. It is not about proving onus anymore. US, Russia and China do not put onus onto adversary to prove their own capability during time of crisis. Power is defined by our ability to project our will onto others to gain what we want from them. Proving our capability brings credible threat to world peace onto the table. And just empowering us to not just avoid the situation of using nuclear weapons but also get what we want.

 

[M.J.K]

Bhai what you are saying is indeed good but for that we need proper substitutes in our country which are frankly not there yet. Most of it includes electrical equipments & agriculture sectors too. Moreover Chinese also have invested in India. According to India our Exports to China are around 16%. So it is easier said than done. You can Google on it whether it is possible or not.

Please check the below link bro its says its just 5%.We will never be ready .we need a disruption .just see how we did with PPE and masks, we came from zero to worlds second largest producer.I am not saying govt should ban everything from china (it not officially possible until both countries are part of WTO),but an economic war with china benefits us.There are many alternatives for electrical and electronic equipment in the world and the cost can be competitive easily with the market size we have ,if we force the Chinese out.

https://commerce-app.gov.in/eidb/iecnt.asp

 

[Bhadra]

Dear Friends,
Just wanna know can we handle two front war which seems likely to happen in current scenario as our western and eastern front is disturbed.I am asking this as I am layman and not expert like forum members.As citizen of the nation just want to know our preparedness.I support Modiji and his core team members,but what I see is that we are begging to China for status quo.why can't we for evicting them from our territory.
Thanks
Jai Hind

As per known and declared strategy, our two and a half front war capability is =
1. Deterrence on One front
2. Dissuasion on the other
3. Continuation of managing internal threats.

3, Dittrence is a capability to inflicted a decisive military loss on the enemy. Dissuasion is to have a capability that the enemy would not easily opt for military options.

Considering the development post Kargil war, it appears that the last part - that is considered a half front, namely Internal Security has taken over the first two and overshadowed the War fronts efforts, It has hijacked the national Security management system for selfish bureaucratic aims.

The national strategy is reflected in force development and force structuring. Post Kargil war . the central govt has raised more than 350 battalions of CAPF primarily for policing and internal security. No increase has taken place in the Services capabilities. If fact IAF has come down to 31 Squdrons from sanctioned 45 squadrons. The MSC approved for Army still lies in limbo. Artllary modernisation is mired in a bureaucratic system, Soldiers are stuck up with a danda called INSAS. The border policing and guarding battalions are increasingly becoming more of police and less of military-oriented guarding banks rather than borders.

Hence. In my view the strategy of two and half front war is still very much lacking proper force levelling and structuring.. Let someone here remain in Mungeri Lal's dreams. We have simply become a police state.

 

[Hiranyaksha]

SCS is their backyard we cannot do any thing meaningful militarily than the US or Japanese or the Vietnamese .We can do a few statements but that doesn't threaten them it merely annoys them.

Though i am not sure whether it is us holding ourselves back from selling brahmos to vietnam and philiphines or russia or vietnamese and philippines themselves.

Nothing meaningful will Chinese gain from putting up forces on our Himalayan border. We have to understand that it is about positioning. We have to weed off Chinese pressure without being pawn of any other power. That is the primary objective. Not regaining control of Aksai Chin or anything else.
In SCS and East Sea we are getting into pond where it is a multiparty issue, not just ours. Hence telling Chinese we can complicate this issue for you. That would be major headache for them.
If things escalate in SCS then others have to join without India and China asking. Thus sending the message that China and India cannot solve their own issues. Hurting China credibility most, it will hurt bit of us but then we will be able to equate ourselves with China.

 

[captscooby81]

The best veteran is one who goes to CSD collects his monthly quota of liquor gulps it and crashes to his sleep they are best they don't have opinion, solution, advice or giving lecture to serving ones.i know one like that who sits in my home and hardly bothers to even discuss about any topics . Last time i tried to get his opinion he said my opinion should only matter when i have power to put them in action once i am retired i have no bloody business in giving opinions on matters i have no authority to act .

Forget Veterans we have new breed in social media called Army brats they keep coming in every topic and push their views and you cant counter them because their fathers served the country . how does that make your views better than someone else just because you have a stamp of armed forces family ? they bring that army brat tag just to push their stupid point of view without it being countered .

And to veterans and army men here,yes we are proud of you and u are very brave folks who have to work in very challenging conditions.
But to blame the govt DRDO itbp politicians and every other person but the army for ills at the border today is a bit funny.
We the common folks have seen how many men in uniform have also stymied each and every Desi project of mention,had junkets with aman Ki asha gang,have actively participated in advisory groups to give up Siachen,continue to get caught in massive scams and kickbacks.
Plus we have likes of ajai and sahwney as veterans themselves and many others.
So it will also be better for veterans to do some soul searching before blaming everyone but themselves and continuing their agendas at the cost of truth.
This applies to others also in the forum and at large ..be it scientists analysts police men or doctors like me.

 

[Suryavanshi]

Pre-emption has been done with. They have played a neat game.
By encouraging/facilitating 'leaks' into Indian Mainstream Media, they have put the GoI under lot of pressure. The present dispensation projected itself as being 'strong' on the 'national security'.

Yet, in all honesty, all that has changed on the ground are the optics & enabled certain 'options', if one was to dispassionately observe the changeover.

In reality, conduct of cross border 'surgical strikes' is something that had been happening away from public glare. The difference came in the political 'ownership' of the act, which was new and which changed the balance for GoP and PA, which, hitherto, were having a rather "free run" as political and diplomatic costs were relatively low. This overt ownership also allowed GoI to get 'options' in the form of a more 'aware' public/citizen which/who can be mobilized in case of a need to employ escalatory measures.

This, like all advantages, had a drawback. The public assumed a rather more 'machoistic' approach of the present dispensation, something that is agreeable to the masses, who need something visible to believe in. But it also placed the GoI in the difficult position with respect to China, which has done exactly what it was always expected to do - creep in to areas of mutual demilitarization, as agreed in various rounds of JWG.

I have oft said, and this is for those who do read what I post, that for China any treaty is merely a document outlining an understanding that is valid only for the period/time till when those conditions which were prevalent when they entered in to it, prevail. Once those conditions change, and here the Chinese have a very unilateral approach of deciding the 'changeover', the treaties by themselves need either be re-negotiated or made redundant.

I digress. Apologies.

With the publicizing of this creeping in, the GoI is in a spot. If it allows the PLA to remain, it loses political capital (not even considering the national costs) and if it decides to use force to evict PLA, it risks a war that shall have mixed results with quite a few risks that may cost them severely.

So, being the politicians that they are, they have decided to use the opportunity to delay and buy time, by making military commanders spend time discussing something that can ever be decided by the military commanders of the either side, hoping to work through the back channels to reach some kind of face saving exit for both sides.

Unfortunately, for GoI today, the options are very limted. PRC needs to settle Indian border issue without loss of face or withdrawing from its original claim lines of 1962, in order to address multiple challenges it is now facing, to reduce one, rather powerful adversary. To do this, it is willing to risk a war, perhaps basing its premise of GoI not willing for a military confrontation, on the reasons mentioned above by me.

They are, in all probability, calculating a worst case scenario wherein IA may be ordered to evict them from the zones and they have prepared accordingly, to beat back Indian offenses and hold territory already held and if given an opportunity, make further ingress on precisely the same logic as we have based our Cold Start on, that of holding small pockets of land all along the boundary in order to reach a political settlement.

As long as the present stand off continues and PLA continues to occupy areas traditionally demilitarized, they remain the victorious. So, in my personal view, it is not PRC which is in a tough place right now, but GoI.

I read it all mate.

Is this the reason u were pissed off at this government mate?

And also do u think this macho posturing is good if they intend to act on it?

 

[Blue Water Navy]

I read it all mate.

Is this the reason u were pissed off at this government mate?

And also do u think this macho posturing is good if they intend to act on it?

I really don't understand the guy.

 

[Bhadra]

What is disputed is not the clash but 72 ITBP men hospitalized and the attempt to paint that there were no injuries on the other side by some in media.

It is not made up by me. It came up in multiple media. Please sue them I a court.