India China LAC & International Border Discussions

[Hellfire]

Why do I have a feeling that the Chinese might do a pre emptive strike on India.

Pre-emption has been done with. They have played a neat game.
By encouraging/facilitating 'leaks' into Indian Mainstream Media, they have put the GoI under lot of pressure. The present dispensation projected itself as being 'strong' on the 'national security'.

Yet, in all honesty, all that has changed on the ground are the optics & enabled certain 'options', if one was to dispassionately observe the changeover.

In reality, conduct of cross border 'surgical strikes' is something that had been happening away from public glare. The difference came in the political 'ownership' of the act, which was new and which changed the balance for GoP and PA, which, hitherto, were having a rather "free run" as political and diplomatic costs were relatively low. This overt ownership also allowed GoI to get 'options' in the form of a more 'aware' public/citizen which/who can be mobilized in case of a need to employ escalatory measures.

This, like all advantages, had a drawback. The public assumed a rather more 'machoistic' approach of the present dispensation, something that is agreeable to the masses, who need something visible to believe in. But it also placed the GoI in the difficult position with respect to China, which has done exactly what it was always expected to do - creep in to areas of mutual demilitarization, as agreed in various rounds of JWG.

I have oft said, and this is for those who do read what I post, that for China any treaty is merely a document outlining an understanding that is valid only for the period/time till when those conditions which were prevalent when they entered in to it, prevail. Once those conditions change, and here the Chinese have a very unilateral approach of deciding the 'changeover', the treaties by themselves need either be re-negotiated or made redundant.

I digress. Apologies.

With the publicizing of this creeping in, the GoI is in a spot. If it allows the PLA to remain, it loses political capital (not even considering the national costs) and if it decides to use force to evict PLA, it risks a war that shall have mixed results with quite a few risks that may cost them severely.

So, being the politicians that they are, they have decided to use the opportunity to delay and buy time, by making military commanders spend time discussing something that can ever be decided by the military commanders of the either side, hoping to work through the back channels to reach some kind of face saving exit for both sides.

Unfortunately, for GoI today, the options are very limted. PRC needs to settle Indian border issue without loss of face or withdrawing from its original claim lines of 1962, in order to address multiple challenges it is now facing, to reduce one, rather powerful adversary. To do this, it is willing to risk a war, perhaps basing its premise of GoI not willing for a military confrontation, on the reasons mentioned above by me.

They are, in all probability, calculating a worst case scenario wherein IA may be ordered to evict them from the zones and they have prepared accordingly, to beat back Indian offenses and hold territory already held and if given an opportunity, make further ingress on precisely the same logic as we have based our Cold Start on, that of holding small pockets of land all along the boundary in order to reach a political settlement.

As long as the present stand off continues and PLA continues to occupy areas traditionally demilitarized, they remain the victorious. So, in my personal view, it is not PRC which is in a tough place right now, but GoI.

 

[Indrajit]

Not necessary ..
We know what the Chinese did in Vietnam against USA.
Loas and Cambodia too....

In Korea they got into direct confrontation....

The Chinese did what in Vietnam? I thought it was the Russians. The Vietnamese don’t like the Chinese at all.

Edit: stand corrected.

 

[Hellfire]

The Chinese did what in Vietnam? I thought it was the Russians. The Vietnamese don’t like the Chinese at all.

The Chinese supported NVA with equipment and trainers (operators)

 

[Blue Water Navy]

They are doing this on purpose . they wont leave until they get something and we wont fire the first shot .so what then , can we station troops year round ? .

We didn't push forward somewhere (tit - for - tat) , we wont escalate , we wont fire the shot . Unless we take some of their territory, punish them for their actions they will keep doing this and we already lost .

They don't follow any world map. They follow their Chinese map which is of their own. So, even if we take back some area. It will be shown to them that we have captured their territory. CCP and/or PLA won't back from this land grab attitude. Unless the whole communist party falls apart.

 

[Hellfire]

I don't think GOI is in a mood to give concessions.
If that was the case, it wouldn't have come to this.

They are in a spot. They can neither go to war, nor make the PRC vacate demilitarized outcrops occupied by them, without a significant climb down (road building is just a small excuse)

We are in for the long haul & the Chinese know it.

As long as Chinese hold the territory, they have already won.

 

[Hellfire]

So what, our "export" to them is raw material. Let them get it some where else - we will see if they succeed.

They will. Africa.

 

[Indrajit]

The Chinese supported NVA with equipment and trainers (operators)

Mostly Russian run, the Chinese are historically disliked by the Vietnamese. They did fight a border war shortly after the Americans left and the Chinese came out worse.

Stand corrected. You are right.

 

[Hellfire]

Sorry for repeating this once again. The specific tactical weapon holds the key to success in this sort of conflict. M77 is such a weapon which can be airlifted at a very short notice, Excalibur is such a round. Pinaka Mk2 also holds the key. T 72 configured for mountain of Himalaya , Hercules and globe master, Chinook, Appache , Brahmos shall be our trump card, Most of the weapons useful in desert and plane area shall be of little use in Himalaya.

For the bold, such as?

 

[Hellfire]

Mostly Russian run, the Chinese are historically disliked by the Vietnamese. They did fight a border war shortly after the Americans left and the Chinese came out worse.

Stand corrected. You are right.

HONG KONG, MAY 16 -- China admitted today that it sent 320,000 combat troops to Vietnam to fight against U.S. forces and their South Vietnamese allies. In a report monitored in Hong Kong, the semi-official China News Service said China sent the soldiers to Vietnam during the 1960s and spent over $20 billion to support Hanoi's regular North Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong guerrilla units. The disclosure was made a month after military officials in the Soviet Union admitted that a contingent of Soviet advisers in Vietnam took part in combat against U.S. forces and helped shoot down American planes. Moscow had previously denied its troops played a combat role in the war. The agency report cited "The History of the People's Republic of China," published by the official State Archives Publishing House, as saying more than 4,000 Chinese soldiers were killed during the war.

source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...nam-war/6b9cb8a4-4d18-48bf-80d2-bea80f64057c/


Also, if can look up:

Building Ho's Army: Chinese Military Assistance to North Vietnam by Xiaobing Li

 

[Shredder]

My Economic War on China :-

1. Increase import Tariffs on China

2. Ban new Chinese investment in India

3. Direct China to sell off all their investments in India within 3 years

4. Restrict Travel & Tourism

5. Ban all Chinese media, apps, software etc in India spread over 3 years in phases.

Thereafter think of Military action if still Required.

1. It's a two-way street, we would take a much harder beating than the chinese. It takes government will and effort to nurture a manufacturing powerhouse which china is, India has significantly improved though. Thanks to them bat-eating scum, we should be getting more investments as time progresses.

2. Startups are hungry for investment especially at this juncture, and rules cannot be made up to ban chinese investment outright.

3. Again, based on a company's valuation, who will be willing to buy stake from the chinese. Actually, the more they are vested the better (in smaller-fry startups).

4. Hardly matters. Except for sharing a border, interaction between people is minimal, except for HK and Macau to a minimal extent.

5. This can be done, but wouldn't make any difference. It is also good to see how deluded them chinks are right?

 

[Hellfire]

I think he uses just enough truth in some of his tweets so as to create a doubt of whether something he says may be true. He's quite interesting if u realise that there is no way to verify most of what he says...even the most improbable.

Au contraire, very easy to verify and take these funny posts down. But, that would seriously expose one to Official Secret Acts.

Sometimes, it is best to be mum, when you know something. And sometimes, you need to underplay what you have.

 

[Hellfire]

I want to ask one question about Kargil because it's somehow related to china india border tension.In Kargil war pakis occupied some 6-7 heights we cleared them but some heights still in their hand like in dras sector point 5353.millitary says because of political leadership unwillingness to allow to cross loc that's why without crossing loc impossible to capture these heights, musharaf also said in some of his interviews about these heights.

Yup they have that. And they have lost the highest peak in Gurez-Dras junction. Big deal.

 

[Hellfire]

These missiles are completely obsolete now, their technology got outdated 40 years ago.

Not sure if they will even fire. We should quickly replace them with BrahMos coastal battery.

They are good enough for the tin pots that we call Pakistan Navy.

 

[right wing]

They are in a spot. They can neither go to war, nor make the PRC vacate demilitarized outcrops occupied by them, without a significant climb down (road building is just a small excuse)



As long as Chinese hold the territory, they have already won.

1. Your basic premise that cross border strikes have been happening now and only thing that the GoI did was appropriate them politically is way inaccurate.
Never since 1971 has India or for that matter any nation entered 70-80 kms and conducted bombing raids into a nuclear powered country.
So the change of posture wasn't just nominal.
2.U yourself said that Indians have occupied as many if not more rocks in the disputed area as the Chinese...if that is so how is it a loss for the country if the Chinese keeping on sitting for a prolonged time till the winters put everything to toss.

 

[Knowitall]

Pre-emption has been done with. They have played a neat game.
By encouraging/facilitating 'leaks' into Indian Mainstream Media, they have put the GoI under lot of pressure. The present dispensation projected itself as being 'strong' on the 'national security'.

Yet, in all honesty, all that has changed on the ground are the optics & enabled certain 'options', if one was to dispassionately observe the changeover.

In reality, conduct of cross border 'surgical strikes' is something that had been happening away from public glare. The difference came in the political 'ownership' of the act, which was new and which changed the balance for GoP and PA, which, hitherto, were having a rather "free run" as political and diplomatic costs were relatively low. This overt ownership also allowed GoI to get 'options' in the form of a more 'aware' public/citizen which/who can be mobilized in case of a need to employ escalatory measures.

This, like all advantages, had a drawback. The public assumed a rather more 'machoistic' approach of the present dispensation, something that is agreeable to the masses, who need something visible to believe in. But it also placed the GoI in the difficult position with respect to China, which has done exactly what it was always expected to do - creep in to areas of mutual demilitarization, as agreed in various rounds of JWG.

I have oft said, and this is for those who do read what I post, that for China any treaty is merely a document outlining an understanding that is valid only for the period/time till when those conditions which were prevalent when they entered in to it, prevail. Once those conditions change, and here the Chinese have a very unilateral approach of deciding the 'changeover', the treaties by themselves need either be re-negotiated or made redundant.

I digress. Apologies.

With the publicizing of this creeping in, the GoI is in a spot. If it allows the PLA to remain, it loses political capital (not even considering the national costs) and if it decides to use force to evict PLA, it risks a war that shall have mixed results with quite a few risks that may cost them severely.

So, being the politicians that they are, they have decided to use the opportunity to delay and buy time, by making military commanders spend time discussing something that can ever be decided by the military commanders of the either side, hoping to work through the back channels to reach some kind of face saving exit for both sides.

Unfortunately, for GoI today, the options are very limted. PRC needs to settle Indian border issue without loss of face or withdrawing from its original claim lines of 1962, in order to address multiple challenges it is now facing, to reduce one, rather powerful adversary. To do this, it is willing to risk a war, perhaps basing its premise of GoI not willing for a military confrontation, on the reasons mentioned above by me.

They are, in all probability, calculating a worst case scenario wherein IA may be ordered to evict them from the zones and they have prepared accordingly, to beat back Indian offenses and hold territory already held and if given an opportunity, make further ingress on precisely the same logic as we have based our Cold Start on, that of holding small pockets of land all along the boundary in order to reach a political settlement.

As long as the present stand off continues and PLA continues to occupy areas traditionally demilitarized, they remain the victorious. So, in my personal view, it is not PRC which is in a tough place right now, but GoI.

I wanted to ask you do you expect the administration to push these soldiers out of these these zones since I read somewhere that in the last meeting the Commander told his chinese counterpart that we will have to throw you out.

DO you expect action from the GOI why/why not.

 

[ezsasa]

They are in a spot. They can neither go to war, nor make the PRC vacate demilitarized outcrops occupied by them, without a significant climb down (road building is just a small excuse)



As long as Chinese hold the territory, they have already won.

by your logic, there is no way forward but for a military confrontation. CCP has nothing to loose, there is no public pressure on PLA to achieve something.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

by your logic, there is no way forward but for a military confrontation. CCP has nothing to loose, there is no public pressure on PLA to achieve something.

They risk being humiliated internationally at a time the whole world hates them.

 

[Hellfire]

1. Your basic premise that cross border strikes have been happening now and only thing that the GoI did was appropriate them politically is way inaccurate.

Please. I am quite well aware of precisely what we have done since 1982.

Never since 1971 has India or for that matter any nation entered 70-80 kms and conducted bombing raids into a nuclear powered country.

IAF did not enter 70-80 kms my dear sir.

2.U yourself said that Indians have occupied as many if not more rocks in the disputed area as the Chinese...if that is so how is it a loss for the country if the Chinese keeping on sitting for a prolonged time till the winters put everything to toss.

Because:

1. They occupy territory that you call yours? You occupying 5 rocks to every 1 of their occupation does not mean they do not occupy your rock.

2. What makes you think troop maintenance is difficult in a terrain where very little snow is static?

 

[Hellfire]

I wanted to ask you do you expect the administration to push these soldiers out of these these zones since I read somewhere that in the last meeting the Commander told his chinese counterpart that we will have to throw you out.

DO you expect action from the GOI why/why not.

No General tells an opposing General that we will throw you out. No political statement is ever made by any Indian Army Field Commander. Rhetorics aside, that does not promote further negotiations.

The fact that military commanders are talking over topics that they have no control over, indicates what is at play here.

 

[porky_kicker]

Pre-emption has been done with. They have played a neat game.
By encouraging/facilitating 'leaks' into Indian Mainstream Media, they have put the GoI under lot of pressure. The present dispensation projected itself as being 'strong' on the 'national security'.

Yet, in all honesty, all that has changed on the ground are the optics & enabled certain 'options', if one was to dispassionately observe the changeover.

In reality, conduct of cross border 'surgical strikes' is something that had been happening away from public glare. The difference came in the political 'ownership' of the act, which was new and which changed the balance for GoP and PA, which, hitherto, were having a rather "free run" as political and diplomatic costs were relatively low. This overt ownership also allowed GoI to get 'options' in the form of a more 'aware' public/citizen which/who can be mobilized in case of a need to employ escalatory measures.

This, like all advantages, had a drawback. The public assumed a rather more 'machoistic' approach of the present dispensation, something that is agreeable to the masses, who need something visible to believe in. But it also placed the GoI in the difficult position with respect to China, which has done exactly what it was always expected to do - creep in to areas of mutual demilitarization, as agreed in various rounds of JWG.

I have oft said, and this is for those who do read what I post, that for China any treaty is merely a document outlining an understanding that is valid only for the period/time till when those conditions which were prevalent when they entered in to it, prevail. Once those conditions change, and here the Chinese have a very unilateral approach of deciding the 'changeover', the treaties by themselves need either be re-negotiated or made redundant.

I digress. Apologies.

With the publicizing of this creeping in, the GoI is in a spot. If it allows the PLA to remain, it loses political capital (not even considering the national costs) and if it decides to use force to evict PLA, it risks a war that shall have mixed results with quite a few risks that may cost them severely.

So, being the politicians that they are, they have decided to use the opportunity to delay and buy time, by making military commanders spend time discussing something that can ever be decided by the military commanders of the either side, hoping to work through the back channels to reach some kind of face saving exit for both sides.

Unfortunately, for GoI today, the options are very limted. PRC needs to settle Indian border issue without loss of face or withdrawing from its original claim lines of 1962, in order to address multiple challenges it is now facing, to reduce one, rather powerful adversary. To do this, it is willing to risk a war, perhaps basing its premise of GoI not willing for a military confrontation, on the reasons mentioned above by me.

They are, in all probability, calculating a worst case scenario wherein IA may be ordered to evict them from the zones and they have prepared accordingly, to beat back Indian offenses and hold territory already held and if given an opportunity, make further ingress on precisely the same logic as we have based our Cold Start on, that of holding small pockets of land all along the boundary in order to reach a political settlement.

As long as the present stand off continues and PLA continues to occupy areas traditionally demilitarized, they remain the victorious. So, in my personal view, it is not PRC which is in a tough place right now, but GoI.

I get your overall point , it's definitely valid

But how about the " options available " and importantly the " intent to act on them " down the line.

War is best won when one gets to choose the time/place of one's choice and is suitably prepared to successfully pursuit the same with a reasonable chance of success.

Problem is currently India has neither of the luxury IMO.

If I had been in charge , I would " verbally yet peacefully and forcefully " try to impress on the Chinese down the line I will take the offensive into Chinese occupied territories and Tibet in the future if they do not yield the ground. Today you played me , tomorrow I will fuck you up in ways you can't fathom.

If they want to exercise their luxury of choice as to when and where to open a front based on dubious claims . So would we , we will bid our time and prepare for the same and without any doubt we will do a " reverse china " in a larger scale along the border and well into Tibet with no holds bar at the time and place of our choosing .

Meantime I will impose economic costs on the Chinese as well as go on the offensive diplomatically building up a anti Chinese alliance overtly .

We always have been defensive since 1947 thanks to cucks who were incharge since 1947.

Look at our weaponry , almost everything is defensive or dual use. We have not invested in overtly offensive weapons . We invest in BMD which is purely defensive and with low probability of guarantee when we could have invested in purely offensive counter strike systems with higher guarantee of deterrence and actionable capabilities which would have shifted the entire onus of keeping peace to the enemy . I hope you get my point.

In the end let me ask you a question

In the scale of 1 to 10 what do you think is India's chances " currently " to blunt and push back any Chinese attack , provided that happens.