India China LAC & International Border Discussions

[ThE BrOkEn HeArT]

Pre-emption has been done with. They have played a neat game.
By encouraging/facilitating 'leaks' into Indian Mainstream Media, they have put the GoI under lot of pressure. The present dispensation projected itself as being 'strong' on the 'national security'.

Yet, in all honesty, all that has changed on the ground are the optics & enabled certain 'options', if one was to dispassionately observe the changeover.

In reality, conduct of cross border 'surgical strikes' is something that had been happening away from public glare. The difference came in the political 'ownership' of the act, which was new and which changed the balance for GoP and PA, which, hitherto, were having a rather "free run" as political and diplomatic costs were relatively low. This overt ownership also allowed GoI to get 'options' in the form of a more 'aware' public/citizen which/who can be mobilized in case of a need to employ escalatory measures.

This, like all advantages, had a drawback. The public assumed a rather more 'machoistic' approach of the present dispensation, something that is agreeable to the masses, who need something visible to believe in. But it also placed the GoI in the difficult position with respect to China, which has done exactly what it was always expected to do - creep in to areas of mutual demilitarization, as agreed in various rounds of JWG.

I have oft said, and this is for those who do read what I post, that for China any treaty is merely a document outlining an understanding that is valid only for the period/time till when those conditions which were prevalent when they entered in to it, prevail. Once those conditions change, and here the Chinese have a very unilateral approach of deciding the 'changeover', the treaties by themselves need either be re-negotiated or made redundant.

I digress. Apologies.

With the publicizing of this creeping in, the GoI is in a spot. If it allows the PLA to remain, it loses political capital (not even considering the national costs) and if it decides to use force to evict PLA, it risks a war that shall have mixed results with quite a few risks that may cost them severely.

So, being the politicians that they are, they have decided to use the opportunity to delay and buy time, by making military commanders spend time discussing something that can ever be decided by the military commanders of the either side, hoping to work through the back channels to reach some kind of face saving exit for both sides.

Unfortunately, for GoI today, the options are very limted. PRC needs to settle Indian border issue without loss of face or withdrawing from its original claim lines of 1962, in order to address multiple challenges it is now facing, to reduce one, rather powerful adversary. To do this, it is willing to risk a war, perhaps basing its premise of GoI not willing for a military confrontation, on the reasons mentioned above by me.

They are, in all probability, calculating a worst case scenario wherein IA may be ordered to evict them from the zones and they have prepared accordingly, to beat back Indian offenses and hold territory already held and if given an opportunity, make further ingress on precisely the same logic as we have based our Cold Start on, that of holding small pockets of land all along the boundary in order to reach a political settlement.

As long as the present stand off continues and PLA continues to occupy areas traditionally demilitarized, they remain the victorious. So, in my personal view, it is not PRC which is in a tough place right now, but GoI.

India need to wait till October. Later if Chinese doesn't retreat, need a minor skirmish in Ladakh and push them back.

 

[Hellfire]

by your logic, there is no way forward but for a military confrontation. CCP has nothing to loose, there is no public pressure on PLA to achieve something.

Exactly.

They have absolutely nothing to lose. They came prepared, and they executed.

What most members here miss is the broader picture, which I had hinted at earlier in my initial posts here. China is looking to negotiate a peace with India to secure it's interests. And it is prepared to go to war (limited) for that if need be.

The present stand off has all the makings of an adversary prepared to fight a limited war.

 

[Shredder]

Let's have the right figures, how much sq.km of territory has the chinese actually occupied? There is too much of BS going around, and our govt have their thumb up their asses without giving any info.

 

[Absolut_Vodka]

India need to wait till October. Later if Chinese doesn't retreat, need a minor skirmish in Ladakh and push them back.

I also thought the same, de-escalate and then bring troops and throw them out.

But we have large brigade of jaichands, mir jaffars and ultra nationalist who won't accept any patience.

 

[Hellfire]

India need to wait till October. Later if Chinese doesn't retreat, need a minor skirmish in Ladakh and push them back.

It does not work that way. That is purely a wishful thinking.

You will see now pressure being built up along western front - good optics and then you will see a quite 'resolution' along the Eastern Front.

Watch.

 

[Hellfire]

I also thought the same, de-escalate and then bring troops and throw them out.

But we have large brigade of jaichands, mir jaffars and ultra nationalist who won't accept any patience.

Less to do with any of the factors you have mentioned above. More to do with two things:

1. Projecting your self as strong on National Security and need to uphold the image.
2. High political costs for any action/inaction.

So, the military stand off is just an attempt to buy time to work something out where the political costs can be reduced sans a military conflict.

 

[Absolut_Vodka]

Exactly.

They have absolutely nothing to lose. They came prepared, and they executed.

What most members here miss is the broader picture, which I had hinted at earlier in my initial posts here. China is looking to negotiate a peace with India to secure it's interests. And it is prepared to go to war (limited) for that if need be.

The present stand off has all the makings of an adversary prepared to fight a limited war.

A decisive defeat of PLA can land a blow to authoritarian image of Xi and China.

China would have fired and killed Indian soldiers by now had they have complete trust on PLA.

 

[right wing]

Please. I am quite well aware of precisely what we have done since 1982.

Pakistan was not a declared nuke power then.


IAF did not enter 70-80 kms my dear sir.

The bombs well as deep that's what matters.


Because:

1. They occupy territory that you call yours? You occupying 5 rocks to every 1 of their occupation does not mean they do not occupy your rock.
Well they occupy the entire aksai chin for that matter and do read what u just said to a guy regarding kargil.
Us occupying ,according to u,Sir, 5 rocks in retaliation to theirs 1 does matter in that same manner.

2. What makes you think troop maintenance is difficult in a terrain where very little snow is static?

Because snow alone doesn't count for weather and till Now the encampments in question do not resemble anything solid.

 

[patriots]

@Hellfire
Will India able to contain chineese
Bdw what's about j20,s400
And 50+ submarine s. China have...
Will not theoretically s400 will shoot all jets within its range
Bdw do u believe s400 will be able to shoot brahmos
I heard thar barak8;is able to shoot
Bdw when you are going to fight a war ....our experts have planned..........

Is it possible to use recently de commisoned mig27...mig21 fighter s if need arises .........

 

[porky_kicker]

Exactly.

They have absolutely nothing to lose. They came prepared, and they executed.

What most members here miss is the broader picture, which I had hinted at earlier in my initial posts here. China is looking to negotiate a peace with India to secure it's interests. And it is prepared to go to war (limited) for that if need be.

The present stand off has all the makings of an adversary prepared to fight a limited war.

Just for the sake of conversation

What if we say we will expand the war and show our intent to do so on the ground ?

 

[Hellfire]

A decisive defeat of PLA can land a blow to authoritarian image of Xi and China.

China would have fired and killed Indian soldiers by now had they have complete trust on PLA.

There is no 'decisive defeat' of PLA. Yet.

At best, you can slug it out. And outlast them. That is it. Nothing more.

 

[right wing]

A decisive defeat of PLA can land a blow to authoritarian image of Xi and China.

China would have fired and killed Indian soldiers by now had they have complete trust on PLA.

That video itself brought so much sadness that pak defense forum was offed in china

 

[patriots]

And I strongly believe ,if a war happen s with China will do....... something in west

 

[porky_kicker]

It does not work that way. That is purely a wishful thinking.

You will see now pressure being built up along western front - good optics and then you will see a quite 'resolution' along the Eastern Front.

Watch.

Can you elaborate ?

 

[Floydian]

It does not work that way. That is purely a wishful thinking.

You will see now pressure being built up along western front - good optics and then you will see a quite 'resolution' along the Eastern Front.

Watch.

Matlab we will again end up ceding more territory to those chinki bastards, whereas the govt will make us change our focus to porkistan???

 

[mokoman]

Less to do with any of the factors you have mentioned above. More to do with two things:

1. Projecting your self as strong on National Security and need to uphold the image.
2. High political costs for any action/inaction.

So, the military stand off is just an attempt to buy time to work something out where the political costs can be reduced sans a military conflict.

so who is gaining , whose terms will the stand off end on ?

Also if we are holding their territory / buffer territory then arn't we also in a good position ??

 

[HawkisRight]

Exactly.

They have absolutely nothing to lose. They came prepared, and they executed.

What most members here miss is the broader picture, which I had hinted at earlier in my initial posts here. China is looking to negotiate a peace with India to secure it's interests. And it is prepared to go to war (limited) for that if need be.

The present stand off has all the makings of an adversary prepared to fight a limited war.

I know what u are taking about.. it's not a secret it's published on public forums u can speak frankly sirji

 

[patriots]

@Hellfire sir
Sir did iaf get new bvrs after Feb 27,you says helina not ready,we have limited Apache and mi35 ,which have atgm
70+ rudra will be toothless without atgm
Any plan

 

[Hellfire]

Just for the sake of conversation

What if we say we will expand the war and show our intent to do so on the ground ?

For the sake of conversation.

I am all for going for the military option. But unfortunately, we won't. Until and unless Chinese make a mistake. What we will end up seeing is a 'no land occupied by China' statement by GoI and permanent deployment of IA along LAC going forward.

OSINTs are going hyper over the deployment of Divisions to forward locations, something done every year as routine Op Alert forward deployment, as if something is expected to happen.

If something was expected to happen, you would have seen Strike Corps moving out already to forward locations for beefing up security along western front and reserves being quietly called up.

Nothing, nada.

 

[Hellfire]

@Hellfire sir
Sir did iaf get new bvrs after Feb 27,you says helina not ready,we have limited Apache and mi35 ,which have atgm
70+ rudra will be toothless without atgm
Any plan

Not the appropriate thread. Mods' have other work too.

But - yes to BVRs
HELINA not ready
Rudra - contingency for SPIKE exists. Hopefully, DRDO won't mess things up as NAG was.