China is already a bigger economy than USA. It will catch up in military tech in next two decades.
By then India would surpass USA too in gdp ppp.
So we will have a world with four major poles.
China India USA and EU ( if it remains together).
That's by definition a multipolar world.
It can’t really catch up that fast militarily unless they innovate.
A small story. The technology that I work in is very sought after for a lot of applications. Military and commercial, mostly commercial. I’ve been to China plenty times and I’ve worked with their startups and medium range companies. Both of which are flush with cash.
What they try to do is probe and probe to get more access to IP core tech and source codes. It’s very evident from their approach that they find it more economical to buy or emulate rather than innovate. It’s sort of a natural thing for them. Very interesting. Observe all facets of their life. The rich in China emulate western culture and America is viewed with awe.
Bet you top dollar, that unless you innovate and bring that culture of not finding the short way out, it’s tough to compete with Americans or even Russians and the Israelis. That goes for India too.
There is a cultural angle that plays deeply into this. Germany, a small country definitely not the resource rich country even back then, was able to innovate and create groundbreaking technologies back in the day. Let’s see how long this gdp is sustained by the CCP.
As automation gains a stronger foothold in manufacturing, coupled with the fact that companies are slowly but definitely diversifying and pulling out, let’s see how the CCP will be able to sustain the economy.
Great tweet by syed akbaruddin:
