That is for sure.
These could be the wrong premises. China attacked India in 1962 when it was almost facing a famine and hunger situation and there was internal strife inside the Party. Mao wanted to exhibit his military nationalistic powers. It was also a time when the world especially US and USSR were engaged in Cuban missile crisis and both could not have intervened to save India. The Chinese have the capability and intentions. They are the most treacherous and untrustworthy nation.
Wars always have political aims. In this difficult Corona Times China is very fragile and unsettled. India is emerging as a competitor. So military instruments could be used to many end besides being directed towards saving Pakistan.
Not possible considering two and a half front war. We can not even achieve parity. Achieving 2:1 strength on Northern and Eastern borders is only possible if 700 battalions of CAPF is militarised. In the present form they are useless and would rather be a burden. But Indian bureaucracy would not allow that to happen for their narrow self-interests..
Economic and Scientific growth is solely dependent on bureaucratic reforms as both these are under firm grips of bureaucracy. Narendra Modi Ji may try quite a lot but bureaucracy is capable of stalling everything in India. We need basic fundamental changes in administrative structure of India. Unless we abolish the Babu culture nothing is possible.
Firstly I have my doubts on the Chinese planning a major attack on us. Agree that the dragon does act irrationally as seen in 1962 when even while being beset with severe economic problems initiated a misadventure. But a BIG difference. India of 2020 is not India of 1962.
We may not be able to go on the offensive and capture Chinese held territory but they will get a very bloody nose and unacceptable losses. India of today has nuclear weapons and also delivery systems which can cover whole of China including their northern most city of Harbin. If the Chinese want to capture Arunachal Pradesh India will not allow it. Do the Chinese want to lose Shanghai for gaining Arunachal?. I would think that 's a big no.
So what do they want?.
Of course China also has nuclear weapons and both countries will suffer greatly in a nuclear war.
Secondly this Corona Virus pandemic has almost paralysed their economy. Their economy has shrunk for the first time in 3 decades. Any costly war with India will damage them even more. They know that the only gainer will be the US economically. I believe the Chinese are more f**c**d up by Covid 19 than India. We will bounce back faster. Most of the foreign exchange China earns is from exports to US and Europe. Both regions are very unhappy with the Chinese.
And presently the truth is any major attack on India by China will draw in the US. The Chinese cannot defeat both of us combined. They are still about a decade behind the US in technology. Of course everybody knows that the US is now our fair weather friend because it needs us.
As I mentioned before if their main intention is to prevent the Pakis becoming naked then this current intimidation has limited objectives and will slowly ebb away.
Regarding my proposal to raise the Indian Army strength versus China. What other options do we have to make our country safer and raise the costs for China. Can we match China in terms of equipment?. More light tanks, more T90 tanks in Ladakh, more artillery pieces, more mortars, ATGM's, aircraft, helicopters, MBRL, tactical ballistic missiles etc. Unfortunately currently their economy is 5 times ours.
One effective way to neutralise numbers is technology. But India right now is not ahead of China in high technology weapons.
So increase in number of soldiers could be the short to medium term response. Presently the PLA has a numerical advantage over the Indian Army in the region. I believe numbers have their own logic. Especially in the mountains. The Communists in USSR and China believed in superior numbers which was why they. had the largest armies in the world. The US though heavily outnumbered met this challenge with nuclear weapons in the European theatre.
India has a large young population today which is an asset. Of course the costs of training and equipping the additional mountain battalions is onerous. Our salaris and pension bills will balloon. Sacrifices will have to be made. But the additional costs will be for probably a decade or two till we equal and then outmatch the Chinese in science and technology.
An numerical superiority will raise the costs for the Chinese. Right now the balance is tilted in China 's favour. We should remember that our Mountain Strike Corps is only a deterrent to China. They will cross the border only if the Chinese launch a major attack on us. We will not be undertaking any expeditionary offensive into Tibet to capture land.
Our present posture is fully defensive in nature unlike the Pakistani border where our three strike corps will enter and dismember Pakistan.
Hope we can have a discussion on options to counter the PLA. Maybe some out of the box idea may crop up. We are dealing with a bully who underestimates India.
