What possible limits could there be to absorption of technology by the armed forces ? The armed forces are inducting drones of various shapes sizes & roles by the dozens. I don't see any complaints there though each platoon would require dedicated personnel & redundancies in built for efficacy & consistency. We don't even know how they're going about it though the inductions themselves are a welcome move .
However one doesn't see the same alacrity as far as artillery goes be it tube or gun viz ATAGs , TGS , MGS , etc or the various tube artillery upto 300 kms range & in huge numbers . Where's the war time plan to replenish standard ammo , mortars , shells apart from these platforms & tube artillery ?
Then there's the rocket force which was planned & we assume is work in progress with no news as to how far they've reached. Inductions of TBMs & CMs are piece meal . No inductions of IRBMs for tactical roles. Further the sub sonic LR LACM are crucial both to our plans & budget. No clue how's the forthcoming Nirbhay / ITCM / LR LACM shaping up & the numbers we're preparing to induct them in .
When the Rafales were first selected in 2012 thry were deemed more than a match for the J-20 . Since then the Rafales have undergone / are undergoing a phased modernization vide the F-4 program which is more of a S/W upgradation, with upgrades to SPECTRA , more modes to the GaA AESA radar etc , whereas their definitive F-5 modernisation package due for the end of this decade has been pushed to 2035 . This was supposed to have a GaN AESA , a new SPECTRA suite , MUMT , various other software & hardware related upgrades including possibly a new upgraded TF.
For perspective our Rafales are the F-3 version . While their F-5 version even if it came by 2029-30 wouldn't have been of much use to us , a GaN AESA radar would definitely go a long way in countering the PLAAF where their J-20 has indeed come a long way from what it used to be & more importantly how the IAF perceived it to be when they settled on the Rafales to counter the J-20 way back in 2022 & which now is shaping up to be a VLO FA.
Then there's the issue of the numbers. The J-20 has already seen upwards of 200 nos inducted where guesstimates are they'd shoot up to 2000 by the end of this decade for obvious reasons in that it's going to be the tip of the spear as far as PLAAF goes when it expects to square up with the USAF where the F-35 & F-22 are expected to perform a similar role with the former planned for induction in similar nos as the J-20.
From our PoV even if they deployed a fourth of the numbers in the WTC , you can well imagine what the IAF is up against. Then there are the 4 & 4.5 Gen FAs in their inventory running into hundreds as far as the J-11 , the J-10 , the J-16 go apart from the Su-27 & the Su-30 MKK . Then there are their strategic bombers in significant nos.
Add to that the space based ISR assets apart from air borne ones plus supporting platforms like Air Refuelers. Pls also consider their ADS & BMD which is indeed formidable though we've a matching program too as far as our ADS goes especially once the LR SAM goes into production which it is expected to towards the second half of this decade which brings us back to the numbers game. Then again our BMD is work in progress as is our HGV program while they've already deployed both systems.
I could go on & fill in the complete page on the stark asymmetries we're facing which brings me to our strategy. Apparently as per some retired top brass of our armed forces the doctrine we're still following is deterrence by denial & not thru build up which is amply reflected in our arms procurement pre & post Galwan. This is the opposite of preparing for the worst & hoping for the best.
I've given this issue considerable thought and have reached the conclusion that once stalemate is ensured on the LAC , GoI is of the opinion the Chinese leadership will back down . I don't think Xi would be in any position to do so as the collective leadership introduced by Deng & followed by his successors like Jiang Zemin & Hu Jintao has been replaced by a dictatorship Mao style by Xi with his loyalists in charge.
Besides he's upset far too many powerful factions within the CCP for them not to call out his failures - both real & perceived. Hence a failure on his part will definitely mean a bullet thru the head for him & his coterie. You can imagine what the response of their armed forces will be better when you realise what is on stake especially as far as their supreme leadership goes wherein that desperation is transferred doen the heirarchy right down to the lowest rank .
What this means is even if we do manage a stalemate on the LAC of which there's no guarantee , Xi would merely up the ante & start targetting population & production centres in a concentrated manner to break supply chains & more importantly to break morale. This in turn brings us to the scenario where in we'd possibly threaten the usage of N weapons. The Chinese may well call our bluff like we did the Paxtanis in Balakote.
The only way we can avoid this is if we accumulate a stockpile of IRBMs , LACMs - LR , MR & SR to target their production & population centres in the east & south of China. Are we doing it ? Certainly not . And that's why I foresee our armed forces taking severe losses & a great toll for our infrastructure. In other words you can expect we'd play the role of a Ukraine or more accurately the role China played in WW-2 wherein they tied up a significant section of the Imperial Japanese Army & their material resources while the Allies under the US was on the march across the Pacific. We know how that one ended & the costs paid by all the participants in the end but especially from our PoV , by China in terms of men material & infrastructure.
what a fuckup
