Assuming that we manage to prevent the Chinese from advancing any further a status quo situation that legitimises China 's present land grab is not a very good outcome. How much time will pass before they decide to do a repeat in another sector of the LAC. Where do we draw the red line.What possibly are the political goals of Chinese Military Adventure in Ladakh ?
The way events are unfolding there are only two plausible estimations of the Chinese Political Goals.
Firstly - To punish India for developing political. diplomatic and military proximity to USA seen as the main enemy of China. In super power arrivals hitting an alley is considered as conveying the massage of strength as also
an action to hurt the adversary.
Second. The goal could be exclusively India centric to eliminate competition for China in Asia and convey a massage to USA and hostile Asian countries about Chinese supremacy. This is being done by a military action against India directed at destroying the nationalist image of Narendra Modi. bring down his regime and promote a weak Congress or coalition regime. This would also addresses some of the key concerns of China such as restoration of Article 370, security to BRI and CPEC and assuring security to it client Pakistan.
The second goal seems to be more probable as that somehow addresses the first goal also. In both the center of gravity is Narendra Modi and his image which is sought to be destroyed by imparting a military blow and orchestrate a massive psy operation in conjunction with oppositions. communists in India. Muslims and India;s neighbors to bring down Modi.
Modi is the main target.... Then hold Chinese firmly on LAC and launch a counter offensive at home turf is the correct strategy Modi seems to be following..
It is a loss of face if the PLA does not withdraw to April positions.
The Congress would have done far worse in the present situation as everyone knows. All their bravado would have disappeared and God knows what compromise they would have agreed to.
A very difficult dilemma no doubt for the Government. Should we wage war?. What will be the long term impact of acquiescence to Chinese demands?.