Basically everyone is suggesting to spend like the CHinese on defense forces and broder infrastructure. DO people here have any idea how many ships the chinese have built? Even the US navy is now concerned about the massive naval buildup by the chinese. Plus their highest technology programs are on target. But our budget is only 1/5th the Chinese budget. So, how will we do this? At the end of the day, infrastructure = money. There is no magic here. Where is the money? Plus, BJP must keep spending on social and poverty alleviation measures like water, roads, food subsidies, free money etc to not lose elections. Plus, we have to spend massive moneys to maintain paramilitary forces for all the internal movements in AFSPA areas + naxal infestation. Plus the Wuhan virus f%^ked up infrastructure and growth targets. States have to be compensated for GST shortfalls for more years now. Bharatmala Phase 1 road project is well behind target - what was supposed to be completed by 2022 will now be completed only by 2026. And the cost has escalated by 25% from $75 billion to $100 billion due to massive delays in land acquisition. That requires more mo, when we should have saved money and started Bharatmala phase 2 by now. No one knows if the PM Gatishakti will solve infrastructure problems quickly as stated as land acquisition is the major problem and Gatishakti does not solve that. This is all if BJP is in power post 2024. If they are not, expect poverty politics to return with significant deterioration in country's morale and defense technology R&D.
Other risks: With CDS Rawat having passed away in a very untimely way, theater command integration is at significant risk. But even before all this, IAF is very under prepared for modern warfare and can only fight defensively. So also Indian Navy (no expeditionary force while Chinese are building one). Indian Army as people have pointed out relies on brute force numbers and is hesitant to use technology.
There are significant problems as 2022 begins. We better take things seriously, do reforms in governance, defense, land acquisition areas constitutionally or become ready to serve as a junior power to China, similar to what Mexico is to the US.
In fact the 3 big North American countries relationship is getting replicated here in Asia. Russia is becoming the Canada of Asia - sparsely populated with large energy resources - powering the USA of Asia i.e China. India resembles Mexico (which is dependent on manufacturing moving out of the US due to its cheaper wages) relying on manufacturing moving out of China to India [which we did not take advantage of] and governed very chaotically and with a lot of political crime [just like in Mexico]. The comparison is quite interesting.
Right now, only Japan can take on China, as they have both money and technology and the efficiency to build things fast. And, they are tweaking their constitution to get rid of the passive power role put in there by the US. They also increased their defense spend to 1.5% of GDP now. Knowing how much technology superiority the Japanese have and can build quickly [Japan can actually deploy war fighting robots], the Chinese would be wetting their pants at the Japanese move. We should mass produce defense items for the Japanese in India and get strategically intertwined with them. Give our poor state of finances and only modest technology, we cannot take on China. That is why I have always been rooting for India-Japan-S.Korea-Taiwan nexus. This is the real Quad. The America led Quad is just nonsense and will never work.
indianexpress.com
i have this theory
