India-China Border conflict

[Azaad]

neither , what is even there in ladakh for china to start war over . AP has lots of juicy land but i doubt they will take such high risk .

maybe new standoff in AP , once our LAC road construction starts they will bring in 1000 troops do some dharna . seems like they r already building road/posts for it

Chinese agenda now has many items on it . Previously it was to seize territory till the 1959 claim line but as of the present it seems to be to seize Ladakh in toto & see Paxtan seize the Valley thus establishing seamless connectivity as opposed to the trouble some Khunjerab Pass given that they overshot their 1959 claims in some sectors in Ladakh in 2020 notably the Depsang Plains .

Objective behind a massive campaign in AP could be to seize as much territory in AP & bargain for an exchange in Ladakh while retaining Tawang in case Plan A doesn't fructify .

However at this point we really don't know where they will stop if they get a chance.

 

[mokoman]

Chinese agenda now has many items on it . Previously it was to seize territory till the 1959 claim line but as of the present it seems to be to seize Ladakh in toto & see Paxtan seize the Valley thus establishing seamless connectivity as opposed to the trouble some Khunjerab Pass given that they overshot their 1959 claims in some sectors in Ladakh in 2020 notably the Depsang Plains .

Objective behind a massive campaign in AP could be to seize as much territory in AP & bargain for an exchange in Ladakh while retaining Tawang in case Plan A doesn't fructify .

However at this point we really don't know where they will stop if they get a chance.

that would require a 2 front war . Chinese evicting us , Pakistan coming in taking over the area. will Pakistan agree to that with its economy in toilet ?

raki nala / Depsang plains is still well inside their claimed borders . they captured it to keep aksai chin under firm control .

Chinese taking over Tawang again is unlikely , we are talking about full blown months long war . doubt they have the aukut for that . if they make any move anywhere . we can make similar moves in chumbi valley + central sector .

 

[Azaad]

that would require a 2 front war . Chinese evicting us , Pakistan coming in taking over the area. will Pakistan agree to that with its economy in toilet ?

raki nala / Depsang plains is still well inside their claimed borders . they captured it to keep aksai chin under firm control .

Chinese taking over Tawang again is unlikely , we are talking about full blown months long war . doubt they have the aukut for that . if they make any move anywhere . we can make similar moves in chumbi valley + central sector .

2 front war may be a possibility. Alternatively China could take over whole of Ladakh & link up in Baltistan , since grabbing the Valley is out of the question for Paxtan as of the present & immediate future. I was giving you an outlay of past plans .

Yes & I believe I read somewhere they exceeded their 1959 claim line in certain sectors. I can't locate the said article.

Right now with the kind of build up they're undertaking in Xinjiang & Tibet , I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around. It's another matter the powers that be in Delhi aren't voicing out their opinions on the matter out loud .

 

[raju1982]

2 front war may be a possibility. Alternatively China could take over whole of Ladakh & link up in Baltistan , since grabbing the Valley is out of the question for Paxtan as of the present & immediate future. I was giving you an outlay of past plans .

Yes & I believe I read somewhere they exceeded their 1959 claim line in certain sectors. I can't locate the said article.

Right now with the kind of build up they're undertaking in Xinjiang & Tibet , I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around. It's another matter the powers that be in Delhi aren't voicing out their opinions on the matter out loud .

Before fhat there will be full blown war and one if the bloodiest ever. Xi will regret that forver till he lives.

 

[mokoman]

2 front war may be a possibility. Alternatively China could take over whole of Ladakh & link up in Baltistan , since grabbing the Valley is out of the question for Paxtan as of the present & immediate future. I was giving you an outlay of past plans .

Yes & I believe I read somewhere they exceeded their 1959 claim line in certain sectors. I can't locate the said article.

Right now with the kind of build up they're undertaking in Xinjiang & Tibet , I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around. It's another matter the powers that be in Delhi aren't voicing out their opinions on the matter out loud .

1959 claim line doesnt matter anymore , they have extended it since then . their current official border is now mostly west of 1959 line .

imho honestly hard to believe they will start a Russia-Ukraine style full hot war with us. will end up full humiliation for them .

I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around.

why not , we even have land outside our official borders in AP . no road access from our side . they just need to come down from the ridge line and take it . Modiji can say with full confidence 'kohi nahi gussa'

 

[raju1982]

1959 claim line doesnt matter anymore , they have extended it since then . their current official border is now mostly west of 1959 line .

imho honestly hard to believe they will start a Russia-Ukraine style full hot war with us. will end up full humiliation for them .

I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around.

why not , we even have land outside our official borders in AP . no road access from our side . they just need to come down from the ridge line and take it . Modiji can say with full confidence 'kohi nahi gussa'

Skirmishes after and before Galwan gave them bloody noses. Even General Naravne mentioned that. We just need to prepare for a war by 2028 or so. Make the supply chain for long war. There is long road coming up along Arunachal border.

 

[mokoman]

Skirmishes after and before Galwan gave them bloody noses. Even General Naravne mentioned that. We just need to prepare for a war by 2028 or so. Make the supply chain for long war. There is long road coming up along Arunachal border.

we are building a lot of roads to LAC border in AP + highway planned along LAC , if Chinese dont act before the highway is finished then its over . if no war before highway is finished then Tawang + other AP areas will be lost to Chinese

honestly best for both sides to just give up claims and convert LAC to actual border.

 

[Tridev123]

Arunachal it is: Simply we are lagging Infra development even after 62 years- and still trying to catch. Quickly linking with troops might be difficult. Also dont discount Chinese using Burmese/Bhutan Airspace and Land for incursions.

Why always think of a war in Indian territory.
Why not the next Indo - China conflict take place inside Chinese occupied Tibet. Let's say several dozen kms inside Tibet.

Agree that China is a big country with a large industrial base.But is India an total pushover. Remember the vast majority of China's industrial output takes place more than a thousand kilometers from Tibet's border with Mainland China.

In a major war with India almost all the resupply of ammunition and armaments would have to come from Mainland China. Meaning a very long logistics footprint.By air(very expensive) or by road or rail.
Making the extremely long transportation network very vulnerable to an Indian attack.

How can there be extremely large military power(also economic power) disparity between India and China on the Indo - China border especially in Tibet and Xinjiang provinces.

I am not at all saying that India can project power in Fujian province or Sichuan or Beijing capital region.
We respect Chinese strength in their core region.

But we should be able to challenge Chinese power in their border regions especially in Tibet and Xinjiang.

I believe Chinese military and economic power in these two regions is not an insurmountable barrier for India.

It is a result of decades of unnecessary trepidation and ultra cautious approach practised by sections of our establishment. A mental block.

We have already returned to 7% plus economic growth rate. Should aim for at least double digits growth 10% for the next decade.

We should be having enough resources to achieve our economic and military ambitions.

 

[spacemarine2023]

Although IMF has supported the same GDP growth % as CCP of 5.2% in 2023, the actual growth is closer to 1.5%.
Household consumption has gone down, govt spending has gone down worst investment has down.
The population growth is zero.

CCP is definitely looking for a military showdown against India.
The obvious point is Kailash ranges in Ladakh and Himachal.
I suspect chinese has moved PLA and rocket force near kailash ranges stretching over few 100 kms.

Har Har Mahadev…
If chinese attack it will be end of their occupation of Kailash ranges

 

[Azaad]

1959 claim line doesnt matter anymore , they have extended it since then . their current official border is now mostly west of 1959 line .

imho honestly hard to believe they will start a Russia-Ukraine style full hot war with us. will end up full humiliation for them .

I doubt anyone in Delhi thinks they'd be undertaking another nibbling exercise the next time around.

why not , we even have land outside our official borders in AP . no road access from our side . they just need to come down from the ridge line and take it . Modiji can say with full confidence 'kohi nahi gussa'

You just claimed in the previous post they stuck to their claim lines to protect their national highways in Aksai Chin. And now this ...

They won't start out believing they'd get into a Ukraine style situation but that's precisely how Russia thought & look what happened.

That's precisely what I meant . In other words the Chinese will come down the LAC in full force & we'd have to mobilize to meet such a force.

If that's the case , why're we even investing thousands of crores in infrastructure in AP.

 

[Azaad]

we are building a lot of roads to LAC border in AP + highway planned along LAC , if Chinese dont act before the highway is finished then its over . if no war before highway is finished then Tawang + other AP areas will be lost to Chinese

honestly best for both sides to just give up claims and convert LAC to actual border.

Total upgradation & restructuring of the Chinese armed forces is expected to be accomplished by 2027-28. Add a year or 2 of buffer but from 2027-28 onwards the countdown begins . It's either Taiwan or the LAC.

They could well opt for the latter as a morale & ego boosting exercise before moving on to Taiwan apart from serving notice to the world at large about their capabilities & intent.

That's where the danger lies for both parties. The Chinese could get more than they bargained for & we could end up taking much more damage in men material & monetary terms for inadequate preparations than we should or at least we hoped to

 

[Azaad]

 

[Cheepek]

Chinese general calls for crackdown on ‘fake combat capabilities’ in military

He Weidong’s message seen to be related to weapons procurement and problems with training.

www.scmp.com

 

[patriots]

 

[spacemarine2023]

no one wants to EASE the tensions, Tibet landmass is ancient India… Bharat flag needs to fly below the feet of Mahadev under the foot of Kailash mountain

 

[Azaad]

 

[Azaad]

 

[Azaad]

Very informative tweet.

 

[Azaad]

Posting this here for what this basically conveys is China is well on track to 100% EVs as per plans, thus replacing their ICE automobiles possibly as early as 2030 thus solving their Malacca dilemma & its around the same time they'd accomplish their military modernisation & reorganization viz theaterization . Do remember that China produces 20-25% of its own crude oil .

Hence any time around 2030 give or take we can either expect them to launch their campaign to take Taiwan or across the LAC

 

[Blademaster]

Same can be done on their side. No reason for me to believe China somehow has superior Guerilla warfare tactics. Infact whatever we know about PLA is they are not really deadly except for the tiktok videos they post.

So in short, no gain, no loss scenario, periodic raids & minor post/area capture by both sides like active LoC? And who benefits from that? No one right.

So keeping this in mind, is Arunachal really a good place for an Chinese offensive?

Depends on their artillery capabilities and resupply chains that they can bring to bear upon along with drones and communication coverage.