Bullying and Chinese posturing.
Over the past two years, the Chinese have warned Taiwan of their intention to force join the island militarily with the rest of China. They also let India know that they will recover the tiny territory of India's Ladakh by moving the LAC line ahead a few miles. Not only that they are positioning themselves to recover Tawang in the east in Indian Arunachal Pradesh. To achieve all this, they have struck a posture of a militarily strong man ready to pick up a fight.
In the summer of 2020, they surprised India and advanced the LAC by several kilometers. They got into a fight in Galwan but they lost. Additionally, India retaliated by taking heights over Chinese positions in Kaliash Heights and threatened their supply base. The Chinese relented, they vacated two or three positions, but would not move back at the others.
Their big war like likely move was in the east. About 80 miles from the Chinese coast, Chinese struck a posture of immediate invasion to take back Taiwan island. Their intimidation tactics included fighter aircraft flying closer to the island and sending their large, imperfect and inexperienced navy around the island. Although Taiwan is militarily very strong, but the possibility of immediate invasion scared them. They called on the United States and other countries to help. This helps, the Chinese had partly taken into account in their invasion plans, and had developed weapons to counter the American plan to defend Taiwan. This included a plan to destroy aircraft carriers with their specially constructed missile 2,000 miles away before they reached Taiwan for defense. The Chinese calculated that the American public being very sensitive to American casualties will retreat if one of their aircraft carriers is struck with a missile or a salvo of missiles assuming Chinese missiles are highly inaccurate and sunk the vessel.
That's their plan, but the truth of it is less reassuring.
If Chinese are successful in their first strike on America, then the American public, being supersensitive to the losses, would in anger expect a huge retaliation. That could result in half of Chinese Navy being sunk. This is a distinct possibility as Americans are technically superior and far more experienced.
That's a World War III scenario. Defeated at sea, the Chinese could resort to use of nuclear weapons which in US counter retaliation could result in China being returned to the Stone Age.
The above is a scenario only. But it is possible because China's leaders are much more belligerent. Then the question is whether they risk an invasion of Taiwan. I hope they do not get carried away by slogan shouting Communist cadre and desist from invading Taiwan. Their military losses will be insurmountable. Their economic and commercial losses, as outlined below, will paralyze China for 100 years:
Their number one economic miracle for the last 20 years has been exports. It would be completely lost. The U.S. will order nothing from China. They would ask every company in the United States that works there to come back. Any manufacturing technology and its support that the Chinese have cleverly grasped will be denied. As there are no orders, the Chinese "Trash Manufacturing" will start to rust. Europe and the other main importers could follow suit. …… All this would be happening because of the Chinese express desire to grab Taiwan. It is a bad bargain for them. I do not believe, Chinese knowing all this, would undertake it. They will posture only.
In the Himalayas in Ladakh, the Chinese were compelled to stop. Indian troops are far too strong compared to the Chinese conscripts who have been sent to fight a shooting war. Realizing their effort at a dead stop in Ladakh, now they have turned their attention towards the east in Arunachal Pradesh. Over there, they want to grab Tawang. All their efforts to take heights near Tawang have been thwarted, so once again a dead stop has been reached there too.
It is almost impossible that China will make war on two fronts. If they fight to integrate Taiwan and lose the battle then it would be India’s opportunity to push Chinese away from the Indian territory which they have occupied for the last 70 years. Also join with Tibetans to expel China from their land.
