India-China Border conflict

Tridev123

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Good points.

Just a few pointers -

Most of our infrastructure industrial & commercial complexes in the North & East exist within 400-500 kms of the LAC well within the range of their TBMs. What exactly are we going to target in Tibet at those ranges except for their rear bases, supply lines, airfields, etc? That's another reason why we ought to possess such IRBMs for beyond a point we can tell them parity in terms of distance doesn't equal targets of strategic importance.

More than usage of N weapons it's our policy regarding it's usage which should be fine tuned if need be specifically with respect to China & announced before crafting what our response would be .

However I don't see the border war however much it escalates go into the N dimension . There's just too much at stake & both parties would be determined to keep it under the N threshold .
Bro, it is precisely because our economic heart land is closer to the Indo-China border as compared to the Chinese economic heartland that we would be compelled to threaten China with the use of Strategic Nuclear Weapons.

We need to draw the red lines clearly. An attack on our economic or population centres will trigger an nuclear response from India.

And can we really match China IRBM for IRBM. Number wise.

And please search for the number of IRBM's that the United States and the Soviet Union had at the peak of the Cold War. I would reckon it would not be in the thousands but in the hundreds. Building IRBM's is not cheap. And that too only arming them with conventional explosives is not a very wise decision.
 

Azaad

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While it makes no sense for India to enter China and try and occupy their lands, since it is not really feasible given the size and scope of it, the same dilemma is faced by China as well.
They can attack but to hold that land for long periods of time can be very costly for them as well.

Now coming to them attacking our infra in north and east, well, India does not need do the same across the border.
China has lot of traffic going through Bay of Bengal and Indian ocean. While they hit in the north, we hit in the oceans.
To be honest, to really cripple infra, China would have to use tens of thousands of their rockets.
For me, it just might be one missile for one of their commercial ships.
A couple of quick points -

China's Malacca dilemma won't be an issue as China produces nearly 25% of it's own natural gas & oil which means by 2030 the timeline where either the war across the LAC or on Taiwan or both are expected to commence, they will have stored up on adequate supplies to keep their military running .

What about their civilian energy requirements? Good question. Do you see the pace at which they're making the switch to EVs? By 2030 essentially all their vehicles would be EVs.

As regards commercial shipping, that doesn't feature much in the calculations as an all out war in any case will disrupt normal trade.
 

Azaad

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Bro, it is precisely because our economic heart land is closer to the Indo-China border as compared to the Chinese economic heartland that we would be compelled to threaten China with the use of Strategic Nuclear Weapons.

We need to draw the red lines clearly. An attack on our economic or population centres will trigger an nuclear response from India.

And can we really match China IRBM for IRBM. Number wise.

And please search for the number of IRBM's that the United States and the Soviet Union had at the peak of the Cold War. I would reckon it would not be in the thousands but in the hundreds. Building IRBM's is not cheap. And that too only arming them with conventional explosives is not a very wise decision.
US vs USSR is not the right scenario to be evaluated in case of IRBMs as both the nations were beyond the ranges of each other's IRBMs which tells you why they didn't mfg them in great numbers & focussed on ICBMs.

As far as the rest of your points go, you've made them before & they're good ones but let's just agree to disagree for as of now there isn't even talk of a N overhang as far as the Indo China question is considered leave alone some plan to overhaul our N doctrine in this regard. Do you see any such developments in the press on the subject since Doklam or Galwan? I think there in lies your answer.
 

Tridev123

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US vs USSR is not the right scenario to be evaluated in case of IRBMs as both the nations were beyond the ranges of each other's IRBMs which tells you why they didn't mfg them in great numbers & focussed on ICBMs.

As far as the rest of your points go, you've made them before & they're good ones but let's just agree to disagree for as of now there isn't even talk of a N overhang as far as the Indo China question is considered leave alone some plan to overhaul our N doctrine in this regard. Do you see any such developments in the press on the subject since Doklam or Galwan? I think there in lies your answer.
Well, if you insist that India's best interests are served by building(hope we have the money) a force of several thousand IRBM's armed with conventional warheads, you are free to hold your view.

Undoubtedly there can be several ways of looking at national security.

But for the record, IRBM's were designed, developed and manufactured by both the United States and the erstwhile USSR for use in continental Europe during the Cold War. A few examples. Like the Thor IRBM's based in the UK, the Perishing missile(almost an IRBM) series( 1,1a,2)and the SS20.

The numbers manufactured and deployed were in low hundreds. Of course it is believed that all the IRBM's had only nuclear warheads.

As for the assumption that nuclear weapons will play a minimum role in managing Indo-China relations, the harsh truth is that it is the fear of India's nuclear weapons and the delivery systems which have poured cold water on China's hegemonic designs in Asia.

If tomorrow India renounces nuclear weapons and destroys its stockpiles and shuts down nuclear weapons manufacturing facilities, what would be the reaction of China.

Probably they would turn extremely belligerent and aggressive. They still don't believe that India is capable of designing and manufacturing advanced conventional arms. Until India's military industrial complex begins to deliver both quality and quantity we are vulnerable.

The bitter truth is that India's nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantor of our independence, territorial integrity and security.

Though successive Indian Governments have tried to underplay the nuclear card and shift public attention I believe that the top policy makers realise the pivotal role played by our nuclear arsenal.

So let's not kid ourselves that nuclear weapons will never be a factor in controlling Chinese aggression.
.
 

mist_consecutive

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“The plan is to reach an understanding during the next round of talks to not bring back additional troops during summers,” a source said
How gullible and dumb can you be ? You trust China to not bring back troops ? China will 100% backstab with full force.
 

DumbPilot

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How gullible and dumb can you be ? You trust China to not bring back troops ? China will 100% backstab with full force.
I think it's just news articles being news articles. No one really does a research with recent historical context, so I am *confident* that the IA knows about China BSing
 

Master Chief

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How gullible and dumb can you be ? You trust China to not bring back troops ? China will 100% backstab with full force.
Isn't this deescalation before disengagement.. that India was against..
Anyway, it's not being gullible, when Jaishankar himself has said repeatedly that China has broken agreements..
Looks like Majburi..
 

mokoman

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How gullible and dumb can you be ? You trust China to not bring back troops ? China will 100% backstab with full force.
:lehappy: 3 months before 1962 war started. i think posted couple times here .


1962 + 62 = 2024 . gud chance some shit will happen just before election


 

Tshering22

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Yes, we need to be ready to hit deep inside China meaning on their southern & eastern flanks but with what? Right now, they have all the tools necessary to hit us deep inside the hinterland without any fear of retaliation because our security managers have decided all BMs < 750 km will be N tipped & under the SFC. Not so with the Chinese.
Chinese economic heartland can be reached from Arunachal Pradesh. The Pearl River Delta is within range but only as last resort.

When I said "deep inside China", I meant to target their supply lines in their hinterlands in Tibet and Xinjiang. Most Indians from the plains do not understand how vulnerable China is in Tibet; the place is an open field for anyone willing to shoot things like BrahMos, Pralay and Shaurya missiles for different targeted attacks.

Isolating PLA frontlines from their Han heartland is not as difficult as it appears. There are very few, distant connection points that connect Tibet with the rest of China. They may appear numerically superior to our connections, but they are much, much more vulnerable due to remoteness. The Hotan air base, for example, is situated in a convenient location that can be reduced to ashes, thereby causing significant delays to their airborne operations if hit early. There is a vast supply line gap between Hotan and tertiary bases closer to the Han heartland.

When stuff hits the ceiling & they unleash their massive missile power on our mainland in frustration over the expected stalemate (which itself isn't guaranteed but just for the sake of argument), over the situation on the border all our guys can do is hold their dicks while they do to us what Russia is doing to Ukraine purely because they can & we can't.
Don't be so sure. A massive missile retaliation that causes unacceptable damage in India (Heaven forbid), will force us to go nuclear across all of Chinese heartlands. At that time, paper agreements and treaties such as NFU will be useless. Chinese know that a prolonged fight against us would only mean mutually assured destruction. What we need to do is to move in with speed, hold territory and negotiate; Communists with a capitalistic flavour rely on negotiations.

See, Russia loves power and the Chinese love bargaining strategic leverage. That's where the Ukraine-Russia and China-India equations cannot be compared.

:lehappy: 3 months before 1962 war started. i think posted couple times here .


1962 + 62 = 2024 . gud chance some shit will happen just before election


Can't rule that out, given that secularist-Islamist-communist parties are all on board with the Chinese and Pakistanis. At the same time, Americans would also like a weakened central government.

Well, I see it as a way for PM Narendra Modi to use all of his deftness and ensure that elections become irrelevant in front of his and the country's success in case such an event takes place. One thing is clear; Indian foreign policy and military assertiveness will only get more forceful from hereon.

There is no turning back and any forceful action from the government will only be cheered on by the more youthful, increasingly nationalistic (even if not completely Hindu nationalistic) population. So the more hostile our retaliation is, the more stronger PM Modi's influence gets.

Basically, a war or even a skirmish will play to NaMo's advantage.
 

SUPERPOWER

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Chinese ornithopter flew for one and half hours...They can definately use it in Ladakh...Hope we too have it as i have heard we used in Surgical strikes...


 

mokoman

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Chinese ornithopter flew for one and half hours...They can definately use it in Ladakh...Hope we too have it as i have heard we used in Surgical strikes...


its a research drone with flapping wings instead of propellor . i guess will be more silent . not that big of a deal.
 

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