India-China Border conflict

[Azaad]

We need to be ready to enter Chinese territory if they enter ours as means to negotiate territorial settlement should a war happen. Remember that the Chinese only negotiate - they are not going to fight wars that push them toward an existential crisis. Sustained manpower losses are something they cannot take as there is literally no one left to manage their forces internally despite having a massive population inside. Most of them are ageing and even with standoff capabilities, they will lose too many men to justify any gains.

The only way the Chinese appear 10 feet tall is by sneaking in, holding lands and negotiating. This needs to be retaliated in the same coin if it happens.

Even PLA does not guard every inch of their side and many areas inside Occupied Tibet are ripe for taking by the Indian Army in the event of a war.

This border war as & when it happens has the possibility to rapidly escalate beyond what both nations desire for the simple reason that a stalemate on the border is untenable from the Chinese perspective & is tantamount to defeat.

Why ? Coz the decision making process as opposed to what it used to be which was collective decision making in the highest echelons of the CCP is now singularly concentrated in the hands of one person .

And that one person has upset far too many people & factions not to retaliate in case of a perception of failure leave aside failure. Xi himself would be fully acutely aware of the precarious existence he leads as one wrong move could well spell the end of himself & his faction.

Hence things not going as per plans on the LAC can well metamorphose to something unimaginable. That's the true danger to us .

 

[Tshering22]

This border war as & when it happens has the possibility to rapidly escalate beyond what both nations desire for the simple reason that a stalemate on the border is untenable from the Chinese perspective & is tantamount to defeat.

Why ? Coz the decision making process as opposed to what it used to be which was collective decision making in the highest echelons of the CCP is now singularly concentrated in the hands of one person .

And that one person has upset far too many people & factions not to retaliate in case of a perception of failure leave aside failure. Xi himself would be fully acutely aware of the precarious existence he leads as one wrong move could well spell the end of himself & his faction.

Hence things not going as per plans on the LAC can well metamorphose to something unimaginable. That's the true danger to us.

That's why I said, we need to be ready to do what we have never done post-independence - snatch enemy land to negotiate for strategic terms if they resort to that. The Chinese know their weakness meaning they cannot fight a frontal war without extensive standoff capabilities. That means, they will send a few thousand soldiers but when bodies start dropping, they will use their long-range rocket artillery to target our positions.

We should be willing to use our long-range missiles to hit deep inside China and take whatever territory we can to negotiate a quick stalemate. Remember, it's an existential threat to us. WE have more incentive to fight.

 

[Blood+]

locals there will give hell to chinese if u equip them as a milita and they fight alongside the army

That much is assured.

 

[Azaad]

That's why I said, we need to be ready to do what we have never done post-independence - snatch enemy land to negotiate for strategic terms if they resort to that. The Chinese know their weakness meaning they cannot fight a frontal war without extensive standoff capabilities. That means, they will send a few thousand soldiers but when bodies start dropping, they will use their long-range rocket artillery to target our positions.


We should be willing to use our long-range missiles to hit deep inside China and take whatever territory we can to negotiate a quick stalemate. Remember, it's an existential threat to us. WE have more incentive to fight.

Yes , we need to be ready to hit deep inside China meaning on their southern & eastern flanks but with what ? Right now they have all the tools necessary to hit us deep inside the hinterland without any fear of retaliation coz our security managers in their wisdom have decided all BMs < 750 kms will be N tipped & under the SFC . Not so with the Chinese.

When stuff hits the ceiling & they unleash their massive missile power on our mainland in frustration over the expected stalemate (which itself isn't guaranteed but just for the sake of argument) , over the situation on the border all our guys can do is hold their d!cks while they do to us what Russia is doing to Ukraine purely because they can & we can't .

 

[Kumaoni]

That much is assured.

Yeah mate. Folks don’t take to kind to their villages being occupied by foreigners

 

[Blood+]

Yeah mate. Folks don’t take to kind to their villages being occupied by foreigners

Exactly. So long as the government is ready to arm us in times of conflict, we'll fight, and by god, we'll make such a fight that the PLA will remember it for generations, and this applies to not just the people of Uttarakhand but of all the bordering states.

 

[Blood+]

Yes , we need to be ready to hit deep inside China meaning on their southern & eastern flanks but with what ? Right now they have all the tools necessary to hit us deep inside the hinterland without any fear of retaliation coz our security managers in their wisdom have decided all BMs < 750 kms will be N tipped & under the SFC . Not so with the Chinese.

Yeah, that was dumb, but thankfully, that has now effectively changed with the planned and approved adoption of Pralay TBMs within the artillery divisions.

When stuff hits the ceiling & they unleash their massive missile power on our mainland in frustration over the expected stalemate (which itself isn't guaranteed but just for the sake of argument) , over the situation on the border all our guys can do is hold their d!cks while they do to us what Russia is doing to Ukraine purely because they can & we can't .

That's just Geography and therefore, cannot be helped. The Chinese have got the occupied Tibet as a big ass buffer zone where as we have none of that sorts.

 

[Azaad]

Yeah, that was dumb, but thankfully, that has now effectively changed with the planned and approved adoption of Pralay TBMs within the artillery divisions.


That's just Geography and therefore, cannot be helped. The Chinese have got the occupied Tibet as a big ass buffer zone where as we have none of that sorts.

I'm talking of hitting the eastern & southern coasts of China with conventional warhead tipped BMs. That requires missiles with a range of < 2500-3000 kms . Pralay doesn't cut it .

 

[Kumaoni]

Exactly. So long as the government is ready to arm us in times of conflict, we'll fight, and by god, we'll make such a fight that the PLA will remember it for generations, and this applies to not just the people of Uttarakhand but of all the bordering states.

Exactly. Ladakhi, Himachali, uttarakhandi, northeast

 

[Blood+]

I'm talking of hitting the eastern & southern coasts of China. That requires missiles with a range of < 2500-3000 kms . Pralay doesn't cut it .

That won't be economically feasible at all, I'm afraid. As I said, it's the tyranny of geography and cannot be helped. The best we will be able to do is hit the depth areas of PLA out to 500 km, and that should be enough for the war effort. For the rest, we'll have to heavily invest in anti-missile systems of various types.

 

[Azaad]

That won't be economically feasible at all, I'm afraid. As I said, it's the tyranny of geography and cannot be helped. The best we will be able to do is hit the depth areas of PLA out to 500 km, and that should be enough for the war effort. For the rest, we'll have to heavily invest in anti-missile systems of various types.

Why won't it be economically feasible to arm yourself with a few thousand < 2500 kms range missiles ?

And if that's the case be prepared to withstand massive bombardment of our commercial & industrial centres for that's what it boils down to . How economical would that turn out ?

ABM is unexplored territory with a questionable track record.

 

[Blood+]

Why won't it be economically feasible to arm yourself with a few thousand < 2500 kms range missiles ?

You do not understand. What I'm saying is that the PLA can hit our major population centers in northern India with relatively shorter-range missiles from TAR, which can be produced in far larger quantities than long-range missiles, and this situation becomes further lopsided in China's favor due to the sheer disparity of our GDP size. Heck, they can hit us with damn glide bombs!!
A few thousand long-range missiles won't cut it, and if we are to use those as a reciprocation for the potential targeting of our cities by the PLA, it'll end up being more symbolic than anything else. It's just not practicable.
Sure, long-range cruise missiles will have their place, but not for what you're suggesting.

And if that's the case, be prepared to withstand massive bombardment of our commercial & industrial centers, for that's what it boils down to. How economical would that turn out ?

If we can deploy laser based systems, then it should be quite economical.

ABM is unexplored territory with a questionable track record.

That goes for IRBM-class missiles and above. Tactical ballistic missiles are easier to intercept.

 

[Azaad]

You do not understand. What I'm saying is that the PLA can hit our major population centers in northern India with relatively shorter range missiles from TAR, which can be produced in far larger quantities than long range missiles, and this situation becomes further lopsided in China's favor sue to the sheer disparity of our GDP size. A few thousand long range missiles won't be enough.
Sure, long range cruise missiles will have their place and but not for what you're suggesting.

It's not just the north , but the west & south too . For that they'd definitely require IRBMs . A few thousand IRBMs in our arsenal would signify deterrence. Lack of it means an open invitation.

If we can deploy laser based systems, then it should be quite economical.

I'm referring to this decade not something that will happen 2-3 decades later .

That goes for IRBM class missiles and above. Tactical ballistic missiles are easier to intercept.

Be that as it may our attempts at BMD is still work in progress . I doubt we'd have the entire system operational in adequate numbers before the end of the decade. Even so it's a much more expensive proposition than getting those IRBMs inducted in our arsenal.

 

[Blood+]

It's not just the north , but the west & south too . For that they'd definitely require IRBMs . A few thousand IRBMs in our arsenal would signify deterrence. Lack of it means an open invitation.

Again, you've completely missed my point. And at any rate, I never said we shouldn't induct those long-range missiles; quite the contrary. All I'm saying is that you cannot fire them en masse to level a city as you can with MRLS systems and glide bombs!!
The best you can do with those long-range missiles is to target their critical infrastructure or even use them as a terror weapon against their civies if you're feeling really genocidal. I don't think those will be enough to deter the Chinese.

I'm referring to this decade not something that will happen 2-3 decades later .

The technology is already here and has matured well enough.

Be that as it may our attempts at BMD is still work in progress .I doubt we'd have the entire system operational in adequate numbers before the end of the decade.

Such TBMs can be intercepted even by our existing SAM systems like Spider, Akash, Barak 8 and upcoming QRSAMs.

Even so it's a much more expensive proposition than getting those IRBMs inducted in our arsenal.

No, just no, simply because a few thousand long-range missiles won't nearly be enough to deter an enemy like the Chinese. And as expensive as it may be, that's the only viable option we have.

 

[Azaad]

Again, you've completely missed my point. And at any rate, I never said we shouldn't induct those long-range missiles; quite the contrary. All I'm saying is that you cannot fire them en masse to level a city as you can with MRLS systems and glide bombs!!
The best you can do with those long-range missiles is to target their critical infrastructure or even use them as a terror weapon against their civies if you're feeling really genocidal. I don't think those will be enough to deter the Chinese.

I think it's you who's not getting my point completely. Where did I ever mention saturation attacks using such IRBMs? Obviously it'd be to take out strategic targets in their hinterland which happens to be their southern & eastern coasts. Now consider the following scenario - beyond a point the Chinese are frustrated by the stalemate on the LAC & they strike the refinery at Jamnagar with a salvo of IRBMs which is a crucial part of our war fighting machine. What are we going to employ to exact retribution?


Would they do that if we had our own inventory full of similar missiles where it'd be a given we'd retailate in kind. Your bringing up ABMs in such a scenario is purely a defensive measure which is needed but doesn't form part of our deterrence. Only an inventory full of IRBMs serves that purpose.

The technology is already here and has matured well enough.

Such TBMs can be intercepted even by our existing SAM systems like Spider, Akash, Barak 8 and upcoming QRSAMs.

Frankly TBMs aren't what I'm focussing on at all. We've that part covered or will in the not so distant future.

No, just no, simply because a few thousand long-range missiles won't nearly be enough to deter an enemy like the Chinese. And as expensive as it may be, that's the only viable option we have.

Frankly I don't know what are you talking about.

 

[Blood+]

I think it's you who's not getting my point completely.

Not at all, I get it perfectly and I'm not convinced.

Where did I ever mention saturation attacks using such IRBMs?

Admittedly, you didn't. I just assumed you did, so that's on me.

Obviously it'd be to take out strategic targets in their hinterland which happens to be their southern & eastern coasts.

No disagreement.

Now consider the following scenario - beyond a point the Chinese are frustrated by the stalemate on the LAC & they strike the refinery at Jamnagar with a salvo of IRBMs which is a crucial part of our war fighting machine. What are we going to employ to exact retribution?

Right now, there's nothing. Hopefully it'll change when the long range cruise missiles come online.

Would they do that if we had our own inventory full of similar missiles where it'd be a given we'd retailate in kind.

Yes, yes they would.

Your bringing up ABMs in such a scenario is purely a defensive measure which is needed but doesn't form part of our deterrence.

I thought we were strictly talking about the present scenario, and since right now we do not possess anything to retaliate in kind, an effective air defense is all we have to rely upon.

Only an inventory full of IRBMs serves that purpose.

Cruise missiles like Tomahawks will be a better and cheaper option.

Iron Beam.



Frankly TBMs aren't what In focussing on at all. We've that part covered or will in the not so distant future.

Frankly I don't know what are you talking about.

Figure it out. You are not a kid and it ain't that complicated anyway.

 

[Azaad]

I thought we were strictly talking about the present scenario, and since right now we do not possess anything to retaliate in kind, an effective air defense is all we have to rely upon.

Why? Don't we have the Agni 1-4 range of missiles all tried & tested? How much does it take to boost production & add on more to our upcoming conventional rocket force ?

Cruise missiles like Tomahawks will be a better and cheaper option.

Our own indigenous LACMs are still some time away. We should work with what he have viz IRBMs.

Iron Beam

Do we possess the Iron Beam? What are the chances we get our hands on it or even develop & deploy it this decade? Why bring in irrelevant points?

Figure it out. You are not a kid and it ain't that complicated anyway.

What's the issue we're arguing on? The fact that we aren't going to war with China or the fact that China won't extract a heavy toll on our infrastructure & industries in our hinterland to be read as mostly out of the range of their TBMs? How will they do that? Thru their inventory of BMs & CMs. How do we deter them? Thru a similar inventory of BMs & CMs. All other defensive tactics viz ABM, IADS etc would obviously be needed but they don't serve as any deterrence to the Chinese. And without which if they keep at hitting our hinterland with their salvos of BMs & CMs tfey effectively damage & diminish our waging abilities.


Anyway I think I've said whatever I had to on this topic as I see I've already entered the territory of repetition at which point it's time for me to cease posting on the issue.Thanks for engaging.

 

[Tridev123]

I really don't think that the Government of India, the military professionals, the strategic community, the intelligence community and other stakeholders see any great value in launching IRBM's of greater than 2000 km range armed only with conventional warheads. At a maximum it can only have a symbolic and psychological value.By targeting their flagship economic, military and cultural centres.

For argument sake let's say we target the PLA headquarters, the CCP headquarters, President Xi's home or even an important economic target(factory) in Shanghai.

How accurate will the IRBM's be. As everyone knows the accuracy of missiles decreases with increasing range. So a real possibility exists that the 1-2 tonnes of TNT/RDX types of explosives etc will detonate a km or even a few kms away from the target epicentre. Thus defeating the very purpose of the launch. Probably the cost of the launch vehicle may be more than the economic loss inflicted on the enemy.

The same argument stands for Chinese IRBM's also.

If in a war situation if the Chinese really start hitting our economic heart then probably there is no other option than to quickly start flexing our nuclear muscles.
Start by using an tactical nuclear weapon on the border as an first warning step.
If the PLA and the CCP are foolish enough not to heed the warning then obviously there will be a nuclear weapons exchange at the strategic level. Both countries will suffer deeply.

The Chinese will see all of their hard earned economic prosperity get vaporised. Obviously India also will feel the impact.

And the only gainers will be the Americans who will try to extend Pax Americana for the whole world by another 100 years.

Let's face it. China in its present form is too big and we cannot pose any sort of credible conventional threat to its economic heart in Mainland China.

Nuclear weapons should enter the calculation pretty soon if we wish to really deter the PLA and the CCP.

 

[Azaad]

I really don't think that the Government of India, the military professionals, the strategic community, the intelligence community and other stakeholders see any great value in launching IRBM's of greater than 2000 km range armed only with conventional warheads. At a maximum it can only have a symbolic and psychological value.By targeting their flagship economic, military and cultural centres.

For argument sake let's say we target the PLA headquarters, the CCP headquarters, President Xi's home or even an important economic target(factory) in Shanghai.

How accurate will the IRBM's be. As everyone knows the accuracy of missiles decreases with increasing range. So a real possibility exists that the 1-2 tonnes of TNT/RDX types of explosives etc will detonate a km or even a few kms away from the target epicentre. Thus defeating the very purpose of the launch. Probably the cost of the launch vehicle may be more than the economic loss inflicted on the enemy.

The same argument stands for Chinese IRBM's also.

If in a war situation if the Chinese really start hitting our economic heart then probably there is no other option than to quickly start flexing our nuclear muscles.
Start by using an tactical nuclear weapon on the border as an first warning step.
If the PLA and the CCP are foolish enough not to heed the warning then obviously there will be a nuclear weapons exchange at the strategic level. Both countries will suffer deeply.

The Chinese will see all of their hard earned economic prosperity get vaporised. Obviously India also will feel the impact.

And the only gainers will be the Americans who will try to extend Pax Americana for the whole world by another 100 years.

Let's face it. China in its present form is too big and we cannot pose any sort of credible conventional threat to its economic heart in Mainland China.

Nuclear weapons should enter the calculation pretty soon if we wish to really deter the PLA and the CCP.

Good points.

Just a few pointers -

Most of our infrastructure industrial & commercial complexes in the North & East exist within 400-500 kms of the LAC well within the range of their TBMs. What exactly are we going to target in Tibet at those ranges except for their rear bases, supply lines, airfields, etc? That's another reason why we ought to possess such IRBMs for beyond a point we can tell them parity in terms of distance doesn't equal targets of strategic importance.

More than usage of N weapons it's our policy regarding it's usage which should be fine tuned if need be specifically with respect to China & announced before crafting what our response would be .

However I don't see the border war however much it escalates go into the N dimension . There's just too much at stake & both parties would be determined to keep it under the N threshold .

 

[prasadr14]

Good points.

Just a few pointers -

Most of our infrastructure industrial & commercial complexes in the North & East exist within 400-500 kms of the LAC well within the range of their TBMs. What exactly are we going to target in Tibet at those ranges except for their rear bases, supply lines, airfields, etc? That's another reason why we ought to possess such IRBMs for beyond a point we can tell them parity in terms of distance doesn't equal targets of strategic importance.

More than usage of N weapons it's our policy regarding it's usage which should be fine tuned if need be specifically with respect to China & announced before crafting what our response would be .

However I don't see the border war however much it escalates go into the N dimension . There's just too much at stake & both parties would be determined to keep it under the N threshold .

While it makes no sense for India to enter China and try and occupy their lands, since it is not really feasible given the size and scope of it, the same dilemma is faced by China as well.
They can attack but to hold that land for long periods of time can be very costly for them as well.

Now coming to them attacking our infra in north and east, well, India does not need do the same across the border.
China has lot of traffic going through Bay of Bengal and Indian ocean. While they hit in the north, we hit in the oceans.
To be honest, to really cripple infra, China would have to use tens of thousands of their rockets.
For me, it just might be one missile for one of their commercial ships.