India-China Border conflict

[BlackViking]

international opposition will be there , we cant even pass farm laws without talks of genocide . we need some legal basis .

local bhutanese would be against it too. gonna see PLA join in with bhutanese civilians against indian army .

maybe would have been possible in indira gandhi's time . now best we can do is apply pressure . like on nepal.

While I am not sure about the present Bhutani perspective wrt India, in the past (10-15 ya) they have been extremely pro-china but not anti-India (the people not govt). Also it appears to me at least that there is a thriving Pro Chinese Bhutanese wumao army in Bhutan, as propaganda brainwashing is going on for quite some time now.

 

[mokoman]

amount of construction going on in tibet is huge . started after doklam

picture of chinese construction inside bhutan . guy claims chinese gov dont release any info/images from these sites . this is apparently only pic from place

 

[mist_consecutive]

Bhutanese dude responding . seems like Bhutan had no choice but to give up its land , Bhutan being the loser here while India loses nothing and China gains a lot .

remains to be seen what happens in 1 or 2 decades

Tenzin Lamsang is nothing but a Chinese cocksucker.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Chinese promised to intervene incase India tried to forcibly merge Sikkim back then . they couldnt do much .

with Bhutan there will be strong local , international and chinese opposition so sadly not possible now .



i think doklam will be safe . rest remains to be seen . doesnt look like India has any say on rest of areas.

most likely a chinese embassy will come up in Bhutan in next 5 or 10 years.

This is one of the few strategic failures by Modi admnistration

 

[Blank]

I think what's happening is that. Bhutan has always been a symbol of loyalty in the subcontinent. No matter what problems happened, there has been no problem with Bhutan. All these encroachment on Bhutan, these land territory, lobbying in Bhutan etc etc is to make Bhutan distant from India.

Foreign people like to say that Chinas foreign policy is like Go. You need to isolate your opponents, and surround them with your own cards. Make them feel like boiling, anxiety, hopeless - these psychological stuff are what the Chinese focus on. It doesn't work on US because they are stronger. But in Indias case, it's slightly different - due to 1962, we won't be reckless. We will calculate their moves again and again. Taking time, while they have first mover advantage.

Either way, Bhutan is a small pawn for China in the grand scheme of things. It might have utility but making india look weak is the main deal. China doesn't want India to be arrogant - which really means that China doesn't wants India to think itself as powerful. It's still the same India that was after 1962 and China is superior - that's their goal. A broken country with broken future.

They might have given Bhutan a package deal that Bhutan will find hard to resist. But here is the thing. China most of the time in foreign policy at least starts out hard but tumbles later on. In BRI, on Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal. If we map the trend of the past, it will mean that we might lose Bhutan. But then their arrogance will kicked, and like always they will bully more then they will gift. Eventually, Bhutan will be back in the fold. But it will be too late by then

China will have encroached, India's relation with Bhutan will not be the same, there will be suspicions like now with Nepal, Sri Lanka.

 

[mokoman]

Tenzin Lamsang is nothing but a Chinese cocksucker.

they are going for the 'koi nahi gussa'™ "hear no evil" , "see no evil" approach on steriods .

fact is there is nothing we or them can do . Chinese have better connectivity to these places.

they wont backstab us and give doklam to Chinese and they dont have strength to face China .

if they want to commit suicide by chinese hands there isnt much we can do .

 

[Blank]

they are going for the 'koi nahi gussa'™ "hear no evil" , "see no evil" approach on steriods .

fact is there is nothing we or them can do . Chinese have better connectivity to these places.

they wont backstab us and give doklam to Chinese and they dont have strength to face China .

if they want to commit suicide by chinese hands there isnt much we can do .

his words actually sound like he is blaming us. It's like "it's India's fault that we can't have peace with China. China gave us a generous package of concession and we will have been ok. India doesn't understands us. "

There is so many things wrong with this statement. China is getting land but it is still a concession? India is to blame for this? Then what's next, our money going to Bhutan an obligation?

Beginning to feel, whole of Asia has some deep seated fear with China. Well at least Japan is less to some degree.

 

[mokoman]

his words actually sound like he is blaming us. It's like "it's India's fault that we can't have peace with China. China gave us a generous package of concession and we will have been ok. India doesn't understands us. "

There is so many things wrong with this statement. China is getting land but it is still a concession? India is to blame for this? Then what's next, our money going to Bhutan an obligation?

Beginning to feel, whole of Asia has some deep seated fear with China. Well at least Japan is less to some degree.

he is a press guy , he is lying about Chinese not intruding into Bhutanese land because that is official stand.

he already admited intrusion in his thread .

reality is like i said , they have no option. we should have backed them strongly but we cant even protect our own land . we were doing hindi-chini bhai bhai for over 30 years . now they are paying price.

 

[mokoman]

dayum , where did this come from

@Jimih looks like americans are playing a new game.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

have india -china agreed upon non dollar trade with each other???

 

[Sanglamorre]

have india -china agreed upon non dollar trade with each other???

Are they bringing every country surrounding India and India itself to boil?

Might be reprisal for not toeing their line on Russia, or they've done a underground Treaty of Tordesillas with China and now removing pieces from the board?

 

[AnantS]

Might be reprisal for not toeing their line on Russia, or they've done a underground Treaty of Tordesillas with China and now removing pieces from the board?

TRUE It seems US and China are busy in making G2. US needs to build paranoia against China for outside world for invrasing weapon sales and making countries agree to unreasonable demands in lieu of farcical security. On the 'underhand' jeep doing business with China, and together keep playing moves which help them in dividing spoils among themselves.

 

[Jimih]

dayum , where did this come from

@Jimih looks like americans are playing a new game.

See I told you, there is a geopolitical game being played by Unkil Sam.

I will write in a brief manner in this thread at an appropriate time.

 

[Bharatiya]

I think what's happening is that. Bhutan has always been a symbol of loyalty in the subcontinent. No matter what problems happened, there has been no problem with Bhutan. All these encroachment on Bhutan, these land territory, lobbying in Bhutan etc etc is to make Bhutan distant from India.

Foreign people like to say that Chinas foreign policy is like Go. You need to isolate your opponents, and surround them with your own cards. Make them feel like boiling, anxiety, hopeless - these psychological stuff are what the Chinese focus on. It doesn't work on US because they are stronger. But in Indias case, it's slightly different - due to 1962, we won't be reckless. We will calculate their moves again and again. Taking time, while they have first mover advantage.

Either way, Bhutan is a small pawn for China in the grand scheme of things. It might have utility but making india look weak is the main deal. China doesn't want India to be arrogant - which really means that China doesn't wants India to think itself as powerful. It's still the same India that was after 1962 and China is superior - that's their goal. A broken country with broken future.

They might have given Bhutan a package deal that Bhutan will find hard to resist. But here is the thing. China most of the time in foreign policy at least starts out hard but tumbles later on. In BRI, on Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal. If we map the trend of the past, it will mean that we might lose Bhutan. But then their arrogance will kicked, and like always they will bully more then they will gift. Eventually, Bhutan will be back in the fold. But it will be too late by then

China will have encroached, India's relation with Bhutan will not be the same, there will be suspicions like now with Nepal, Sri Lanka.

To be fair, our guys in the foreign relations and army aren't sitting still.

Even if Bhutan did get away from India, it wouldn't be seen as our weakness. A spot maybe, but anywhere near what India faced in '62. Ironically, we are already used to a hostile neighborhood. Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh. An addition of Bhutan wouldn't mean as much. It's just that if Bhutan bends over for China, then our relationship with them would also change.

About China trying to show India its place, they tried in Doklam, Galvan. Instead of achieving what they were hoping for, they only reinforced India to fight back harder. Remember PLI and Atmanirbhar only happened post-Galwan. People were charged against China. I don't know how the world saw it. But Indians themselves didn't see themselves as the defeated. We were fighting back even if we lost territory.

While I agree that we could've done better for Bhutan, the previous governments weren't known for having balls. Even if BJP wants to wean away Bhutan from China, they cannot just bid a higher price. The chinese purse is fatter. Still, if there are other ways, GOI should take risks. At least invest in narrative building in the region.

We'll have to focus on building our industry and economy. Once we hit $10T, we'll have far more leverage in the region. Unlike us whose main adversary is China, China's main adversary is US.

By the time, we can maintain our western border with much ease and focus mainly on eastern. China doesn't have that luxury. It will always have to look at the east for the US and Japan. As we shrink the gap with them, they'll not be able to outmatch us like they are doing now.

 

[Clairvoyance]

Bhutan: China has equal say in resolving Doklam issue - Times of India

It can’t be a coincidence that Bhutanese PM commented on the story just a few days after an authoritative commentary was published by a Chinese expert calling for direct ties between China and Bhutan.

Bhutanese PM's comments in the La Libre interview are now being discussed on Weibo.

"China must make it clear that it will not allow India to annex Bhutan. If not, it will send troops. The annexation of Sikkim by India is a big loss for China," said one commentator.

"India upholds hegemonism and expansionism to build regional order in the South Asian subcontinent. The "special relationship" between India and Bhutan has also become an important resource for India to maintain regional order", wrote Chen Yu in South Asian Studies newsletter.

Looks like something is clearly afoot between China and Bhutan. If India can no longer trust Bhutan, then the status-quo cannot be sustained. India should quickly secure its position in whatever form that may take, lest China makes a move first.

Thread by @aadilbrar on Thread Reader App

@aadilbrar: Bhutan: China has equal say in resolving Doklam issue - Times of India m.timesofindia.com/world/south-as… One wonders what has brought about this change of stance by the Bhutanese PM. Resharing my old ar...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Bharatiya]

Bhutan: China has equal say in resolving Doklam issue - Times of India

It can’t be a coincidence that Bhutanese PM commented on the story just a few days after an authoritative commentary was published by a Chinese expert calling for direct ties between China and Bhutan.

Bhutanese PM's comments in the La Libre interview are now being discussed on Weibo.

"China must make it clear that it will not allow India to annex Bhutan. If not, it will send troops. The annexation of Sikkim by India is a big loss for China," said one commentator.

"India upholds hegemonism and expansionism to build regional order in the South Asian subcontinent. The "special relationship" between India and Bhutan has also become an important resource for India to maintain regional order", wrote Chen Yu in South Asian Studies newsletter.

Looks like something is clearly afoot between China and Bhutan. If India can no longer trust Bhutan, then the status-quo cannot be sustained. India should quickly secure its position in whatever form that may take, lest China makes a move first.

Thread by @aadilbrar on Thread Reader App

@aadilbrar: Bhutan: China has equal say in resolving Doklam issue - Times of India m.timesofindia.com/world/south-as… One wonders what has brought about this change of stance by the Bhutanese PM. Resharing my old ar...…

threadreaderapp.com

But if we try to annex them now, we might face international pressure. Seriously, what a stupid move by India to not take these countries in when we clearly could've many decades ago. Like, really, what is even Bhutan left for? You could just make it a UT or something, they'll have their own culture and no one will bother them anyway. Same with Nepal, they wanted to join us, our first PM refused. Nehru was such a dumbfuck that I'm afraid my curses won't do him justice.

 

[Clairvoyance]

But if we try to annex them now, we might face international pressure. Seriously, what a stupid move by India to not take these countries in when we clearly could've many decades ago. Like, really, what is even Bhutan left for? You could just make it a UT or something, they'll have their own culture and no one will bother them anyway. Same with Nepal, they wanted to join us, our first PM refused. Nehru was such a dumbfuck that I'm afraid my curses won't do him justice.

It's a choice between facing possible international pressure and losing ground to China.

International opinion changes like the wind but territorial changes are more constant. Plus you have to take into account which countries India will take pressure from. International pressure really only means the US. The other countries will follow the US position.

At the core this is an India vs China issue. In my opinion, the US will be understanding because of this. They may still make noises nevertheless but they also want lucrative arms deals. An arrangement will likely be possible.

India's global image will certainly take a hit. But it will also establish India as a country that decisively protects its interests and it will humiliate China and weaken China's credibility as a power in the subcontinent.

The alternative is possibly losing Bhutan to Chinese influence. Meekly losing Bhutan will damage the global opinion of India more than annexing Bhutan will. This I am sure of. If India cannot protect its own client states from China, then what use will India be as a counter to China, let alone a global power in its own right.

 

[Shuturmurg]

Don't know if it should belong here or not but the the level of co-operation is dangerous for us.

Also I was reading some Japanese and Australian think tank reports, it said the exercises they do with us is surface level, since there is not much compatibility with our weapons systems. Not sure about the India-US ones.

Btw, these exercises not only help Pakistan but also China, since they haven't had any combat experience in a while and their only other meaningful exercises are with Russia. Whereas Pakistan till 10-15 years back used to have regular exercises with western nations.

 

[Shuturmurg]

they are going for the 'koi nahi gussa'™ "hear no evil" , "see no evil" approach on steriods .

fact is there is nothing we or them can do . Chinese have better connectivity to these places.

they wont backstab us and give doklam to Chinese and they dont have strength to face China .

if they want to commit suicide by chinese hands there isnt much we can do .

I think they have made calculated bet that India cannot protect them from China anymore (due to growing power differential) and hence hedging their options .

 

[SKC]

This is one of the few strategic failures by Modi admnistration

This is a failure of Bhutan Govt!

There is nothing we can do here. We even went to Doklam to stop Chinese activity but now Bhutan is saying we will decide whether to allow China or not.

Point is Bhutan is only ~7-8 lac population country and top people are now going into pockets of china.

If they have decided to fall to Chinese boots then the only thing we can do is invade and capture as much land as possible.