the best of assesments say that nothing will turn out of the conflict except a bloody stalemate for both sides . Neither india nor china will make much gains except a few tactical victories here and there .
Yeah. It is a difficult job to attack across Himalayas for both India and China. But China has smooth logistics upto border while logistics is difficult on Indian side. I doubt India will ever take a preemptive strike across the border. Any strike by India will happen only after China attacks and a conflict is already on.
As far as missile siloes, air defence and a network of thin defending force along the border is concerned. I doubt it is feasible to put a defending force across the border which can resist Chinese onslaught. But still we need to put some kind of defence. What kind is the question.
What are the clear strategic points in Tibet that we can hold. I guess it is difficult. China will have plain movement to take out any Indian ingression.
Even after conflict, I doubt any side will gain territory. All will be back to where they were.
We should take some targets on the east coast of China through missiles in the beginning of conflict. That will put some fear in them.
I beg to differ. On several points.
First, that PLA Logistics is better than ours.
Yes, perfectly true; we cannot, must not do anything beyond out-thinking their game of Go that is being played against us at the moment.
The thing is that their clear and marked unwillingness to start a shooting war gives us all the time in the world to improve our own logistics. What does it involve, in significant terms? a continuous, high-quality roadway from Daulat Beg Oldi to Walong, with emphasis on the parts from Manali to Dibrugarh/ Tinsukia.
Also rail lines, built to connect production centres to transhipment centres, and airports close to individual production centres, again with connected airports close to, or part of transhipment centres.
There is nothing to this that is beyond emulation
Second, who will attack and why.
The PLA wants the Indian Army to suffer a slow degradation of morale, by being posted in a war zone that is always tense, but that never has the tension let up, because one party wants to put psychological pressure on the other.
On the other hand, the Indian Army need not continue to do what it is doing today, waiting for the other shoe to drop.
So training troops to meet certain military objectives, but continuing to help respond to the planned campaign of a thousand small incidents, will help keep the fighting edge on our troops.
Then, if the opportunity arises to fight, we shall have a well-trained and well-motivated bunch ready for combat.
Why the combat?
There are very strong reasons, but at this moment, let us pause with the conventional war-planning against the PLA.
More to follow.