India-China Border conflict

[Joe Shearer]

I don't follow. We currently don't have such an expeditionary force. Our supply lines will be stretched too thin or will be nonexistent. If you are thinking of a para-dropped force, they will be at mercy of PLAAFs unless we are confident of maintaining air superiority over Tibet, which I don't see happening.

A more realistic scenario is this one,

<deleted>

A brigade-sized force at each of the mountain passes (red lines) blocking Chinese supply routes, our supply lines are strong, and we can maintain local air-superiority with some difficulty aswell.

The more I look at your alternative, the more I feel like laughing. When trying to visualise a chain of locations to cover the boundaries with the Chinese, this exact same gap turned up as a problem, as the chain of communications for India has to take a massive C-curve from Demchok to a point in the Spiti and Lahaul region. It was so clearly a kink in the border crying out to be remedied.

And then you come out with this neat little thought, and I was thinking to myself, this has been irritating more people than I.

Nobody stops us from working on more than one scenario; this is the world of simulators, after all.

 

[prasadr14]

I don't follow. We currently don't have such an expeditionary force. Our supply lines will be stretched too thin or will be nonexistent. If you are thinking of a para-dropped force, they will be at mercy of PLAAFs unless we are confident of maintaining air superiority over Tibet, which I don't see happening.

A more realistic scenario is this one,

A brigade-sized force at each of the mountain passes (red lines) blocking Chinese supply routes, our supply lines are strong, and we can maintain local air-superiority with some difficulty aswell.

My take -

China would suffer massively if they cross over into India from North.
Does not matter how great their supply chain is in their border, once they cross and enter India, it's a different ball game. There would be multiple factors working against their invasion and most of them are fatal to Chinese.

Conversely, we are pretty much in a worse position to attack China.
We will face the same set of challenges when invading their territory that China would face, some times in a higher order of magnitude.

As Mike Tyson once famously said 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth'.
Indians are used to getting punched into the mouth & getting back up for the next fight.
When was the last time China was punched in the mouth?

 

[Joe Shearer]

My take -

China would suffer massively if they cross over into India from North.
Does not matter how great their supply chain is in their border, once they cross and enter India, it's a different ball game. There would be multiple factors working against their invasion and most of them are fatal to Chinese.

Conversely, we are pretty much in a worse position to attack China.
We will face the same set of challenges when invading their territory that China would face, some times in a higher order of magnitude.

As Mike Tyson once famously said 'Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth'.
Indians are used to getting punched into the mouth & getting back up for the next fight.
When was the last time China was punched in the mouth?

This is not good. I am beginning to like your analyses.

Both sides have the same two problems, apart from having unique problems of their own.

1. The supply chain
2. Acclimatisation

Where I will build my plan is on the basic that every point on our boundary with China is within reach of our population, ie, our manufacturing and supply centres (EXCEPT Ladakh). For the Chinese, NOTHING is close to their supply centres.

Clearly, we are looking at a decisive roll-back of PLA presence. The only way to achieve that is militarily. The correct time to do it is outside my own personal life-span; it will take 30 years or more of careful preparation and build-up. Another factor will come into play in these 30 years, and that is one that no one looks at nowadays.

In addition, an Indian plan for China that deals with land-related issues is, frankly, a mistake. We can pull ahead of them at sea far more easily than we can pull ahead of them, or even equal them, on land.

 

[prasadr14]

This is not good. I am beginning to like your analyses.

Both sides have the same two problems, apart from having unique problems of their own.

1. The supply chain
2. Acclimatisation

Where I will build my plan is on the basic that every point on our boundary with China is within reach of our population, ie, our manufacturing and supply centres (EXCEPT Ladakh). For the Chinese, NOTHING is close to their supply centres.

Clearly, we are looking at a decisive roll-back of PLA presence. The only way to achieve that is militarily. The correct time to do it is outside my own personal life-span; it will take 30 years or more of careful preparation and build-up. Another factor will come into play in these 30 years, and that is one that no one looks at nowadays.

In addition, an Indian plan for China that deals with land-related issues is, frankly, a mistake. We can pull ahead of them at sea far more easily than we can pull ahead of them, or even equal them, on land.

There is nothing stopping us from opening another front in the sea against China if they decide to invade from north.

Would love some one to game this.

China attacks from north.
Let us assume they have favorable weather conditions, their supply chain is working great and the Himalayas are flat lands for easy access to their tanks and artillery.

If India were to open a front in Indian ocean and lay siege at Mallaca straits, what impact would that have on China?
Food may not be a problem in short term but their exports could be crippled and could face shortages of oil.

 

[Joe Shearer]

There is nothing stopping us from opening another front in the sea against China if they decide to invade from north.

It should be quite independent of their invading from the north. Athens vs. Sparta.

Would love some one to game this.

So put up your hand.

China attacks from north.
Let us assume they have favorable weather conditions, their supply chain is working great and the Himalayas are flat lands for easy access to their tanks and artillery.

If India were to open a front in Indian ocean and lay siege at Mallaca straits, what impact would that have on China?
Food may not be a problem in short term but their exports could be crippled and could face shortages of oil.

Two things.

First, sitting passively at the Malacca Straits won't do much for us. Look at the map; there are twenty different routes to bypass these straits.

If we are to hurt them, they have to be actively attacked, and that means a full-scale war on the China Seas.

Second, it will not be convenient for them, but they can ship in oil from Russia, cross-country, and they can ship in oil through Gwadar and Karachi.

In short, we have to look at the big picture, always. Not just their combat units reaching Leh, but our dealing with them on various planes, at various points of engagement.

Modelling - war-gaming - is the best way to identify good options.

 

[prasadr14]

So put up your hand.

Not aware of all the variable to begin it.

If we are to hurt them, they have to be actively attacked, and that means a full-scale war on the China Seas.

That would definitely end badly for us.
Unless there is another naval front opened against Chinese, us fighting them in SCS on our own might be suicidal.

 

[prasadr14]

Second, it will not be convenient for them, but they can ship in oil from Russia, cross-country, and they can ship in oil through Gwadar and Karachi.

Oil supply on land is not that reliable option especially considering the route it has travel to get from Pak to China.

Besides that's a minor quibble. They can pretty much get on with Russian supply during the course of conflict.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Not aware of all the variable to begin it.

You don't have to begin it. Beginning it is a very elaborate process. You will put up your hand just to say that some day, some time, if there is an opportunity to reach a simulator and try war games, you would like to be there as a player.

That would definitely end badly for us.
Unless there is another naval front opened against Chinese, us fighting them in SCS on our own might be suicidal.

Are you so sure?

 

[prasadr14]

Are you so sure?

They have numerical superiority in the quantity of naval assets they can have in SCS,
the tyranny of distance would be applicable to us than them when we fight there.

Yes, we do have some nice weapons to counter their navy but they can attack us our naval assets in multiple ways in SCS. For one I would guess their AF would come into play where as our AF may not be able to play as big a role.

 

[karn]

You don't have to begin it. Beginning it is a very elaborate process. You will put up your hand just to say that some day, some time, if there is an opportunity to reach a simulator and try war games, you would like to be there as a player.



Are you so sure?

What are these simulators called .. can they be accessed by lay people ?

 

[hit&run]

Yeah it will put pressure on the east to west movement of troops and materials for the PLA.

If the logistics and movement of our troops can be managed there is a possibility to block it.

However Division wise it is still insufficient for this manouevre to take place.

Doesn’t ‘War of manoeuvring’ sounds familiar? A one trick pony may be.

From Firozpur and Fazika’s deceptive natural jump into Pakistan that will be killed right at the crossing of river Sutlej and then our columns will hit most formidable Pakistani defences backed by their canal systems to applying Nathu la/Cho la manoeuvring excecuted from a natural pass over seeing Chinese movements that gave us decisive tactical dominance applied on Ladakh planes and Galwan valley dead end I think we have to be very careful digesting these suggestions.

 

[Kumaoni]

Oh man this is beatiful. Hopefully china can self destruct itself.

Xi Jinping will be kicked out of CCP

 

[THESIS THORON]

Oh man this is beatiful. Hopefully china can self destruct itself.

it will self destruct. as people protest more chinks will try to tighten the restrictions then people will become more vocal.......... basically a positive feedback loop

 

[mist_consecutive]

The more I look at your alternative, the more I feel like laughing. When trying to visualise a chain of locations to cover the boundaries with the Chinese, this exact same gap turned up as a problem, as the chain of communications for India has to take a massive C-curve from Demchok to a point in the Spiti and Lahaul region. It was so clearly a kink in the border crying out to be remedied.

And then you come out with this neat little thought, and I was thinking to myself, this has been irritating more people than I.

Nobody stops us from working on more than one scenario; this is the world of simulators, after all.

Aftermath our armed forces captured the South & North Pangong Tso peaks in Sep 2020, I was idly looking for more peaks and areas which can be captured by us realistically for greater strategic leverage.

There are equally many areas under our dominance as China as under them, due to terrain, geographic, and infrastructure advantage. The area I pointed out, seems to be the (realistically) most ambitious, yet completely achievable target.

 

[mokoman]

The more I look at your alternative, the more I feel like laughing. When trying to visualise a chain of locations to cover the boundaries with the Chinese, this exact same gap turned up as a problem, as the chain of communications for India has to take a massive C-curve from Demchok to a point in the Spiti and Lahaul region. It was so clearly a kink in the border crying out to be remedied.

And then you come out with this neat little thought, and I was thinking to myself, this has been irritating more people than I.

Nobody stops us from working on more than one scenario; this is the world of simulators, after all.

its a gap , but thats why they are building g216 , from what i heard , they are on track to complete it asap .

better come up with a new battle plan now

 

[Joe Shearer]

They have numerical superiority in the quantity of naval assets they can have in SCS,
the tyranny of distance would be applicable to us than them when we fight there.

Yes, we do have some nice weapons to counter their navy but they can attack us our naval assets in multiple ways in SCS. For one I would guess their AF would come into play where as our AF may not be able to play as big a role.

Let us explain our points of view in detail. I am open to being convinced but hear me out first.

 

[Joe Shearer]

What are these simulators called .. can they be accessed by lay people ?

Oh yes.
We are planning to buy one for ourselves for my home forum. Oscar has been very generous with information. Give me half a day, and while I'm keeping my domestic affairs going, I will dig out what he shared with us.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Aftermath our armed forces captured the South & North Pangong Tso peaks in Sep 2020, I was idly looking for more peaks and areas which can be captured by us realistically for greater strategic leverage.

There are equally many areas under our dominance as China as under them, due to terrain, geographic, and infrastructure advantage. The area I pointed out, seems to be the (realistically) most ambitious, yet completely achievable target.

GOOD thinking!

We need to work on this. You will be surprised, but think of it this way.

The PLA is a long needle thrusting out of....Chengdu!
The Indian Army is a tank bund holding in the entire resources of the combatant country, nowhere more than 400 kms from their vital communications anywhere.
400 kms is not small; the logistics involved is not to be trivialised. If we look at the nature of the two armed contingents physical disposition, other dimensions come to mind.

 

[Joe Shearer]

its a gap , but thats why they are building g216 , from what i heard , they are on track to complete it asap .

better come up with a new battle plan now

Two things.

The longer we wait, the more complex their road network.

Second, anyone anywhere taken a look at their demographics?

 

[Joe Shearer]

A reminder to everybody: we are looking at a time-line that leads to engagement in around 2030.