India-China Border conflict

vidhwanshak

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He oversimplifies stuff but he's handing out copium so...
Here's some, guys-


Sniff it. Breath it all in.

Know that China can NOT afford to mess around in a full fledged war with us without absolutely screwing up it's near and long term future.
simple words, he is trying to say most of the Chinese are elderly right?
 

Shuturmurg

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He oversimplifies stuff but he's handing out copium so...
Here's some, guys-


Sniff it. Breath it all in.

Know that China can NOT afford to mess around in a full fledged war with us without absolutely screwing up it's near and long term future.
I have been following this guy for 6-7 years. His analysis specially related to how globalization and supply chains created modern world is really good.
He has been correctly predicting about "deglobalization", russian invasion of ukraine, wars of disorders (areas of world where war was prevented due to US security guarantess), etc. However, I think his China predictions are a bit hyperbolic. Yes, they will have huge issues due to demographic aging, but I don't think there will be collapse.

The biggest thing that this guys says and makes sense is this :
There are countries in world that have grown their populations to levels that cannot be supported locally. For eg. North Africa and Middle east, etc. can't grow enough food for their local population, globalization has enabled them to do trade at a large level and hence ensure supply of food. With all supply chains disrupted with deglobalization, expect famines in such countries. Same with other imported stuff as well.
 

Waanar

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simple words, he is trying to say most of the Chinese are elderly right?
To oversimplify the oversimplification further, he's basically saying China will implode unto itself by 2030 and won't exist as a country anymore.

What's interesting is he points to CCP data (which is itself pretty exaggerated to give a better outlook).

Basically, if their birthrate has fallen to what CCP says it is, they're done for. They can't fight a war.

If their birthrate is BELOW what CCP says (highly probable), they won't survive even without a war by 2030.
 

Waanar

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I have been following this guy for 6-7 years. His analysis specially related to how globalization and supply chains created modern world is really good.
He has been correctly predicting about "deglobalization", russian invasion of ukraine, wars of disorders (areas of world where war was prevented due to US security guarantess), etc. However, I think his China predictions are a bit hyperbolic. Yes, they will have huge issues due to demographic aging, but I don't think there will be collapse.

The biggest thing that this guys says and makes sense is this :
There are countries in world that have grown their populations to levels that cannot be supported locally. For eg. North Africa and Middle east, etc. can't grow enough food for their local population, globalization has enabled them to do trade at a large level and hence ensure supply of food. With all supply chains disrupted with deglobalization, expect famines in such countries. Same with other imported stuff as well.
Man, I must thank you.

You're the one who introduced me to this guy through one of your posts and I've learnt so much.

Yes, while you're right about a collapse not being an inevitability, we have to consider the heat China has on its back.

China has attracted the ire of the world with Covid and with it's wolf warrior diplomacy, the west.

If China was a benign nation on an isolated landmass, perhaps it would've been safer from foreign interference but I expect that will intensify incredibly with the invasion of Taiwan (which is very likely now that US has shown a lack of spine for Ukraine).

You also have to consider internal dissent and the massive landmass to govern with such a small population.
 

KurtisBrian

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There are countries in world that have grown their populations to levels that cannot be supported locally. For eg. North Africa and Middle east, etc. can't grow enough food for their local population, globalization has enabled them to do trade at a large level and hence ensure supply of food. With all supply chains disrupted with deglobalization, expect famines in such countries. Same with other imported stuff as well.
Famines will = Invasions.

Say food is fraudulently made too expensive in an effort to reward thieves. Perhaps caused to be in short supply by man made manipulation. What will happen? Probably, like greed and banking fraud before, it will first cause immigrant/migrant swarms, then INVASIONS of nations that have lots of wealth, good farmland and agricultural productive capacity.
USA, EU, UK, Canada, Nz, and India all have migrants a plenty. You guys love the Bangladeshi migrants in India?
Already the invasions begin. Weak no ally break basket Ukraine got HIT first.
Who else has lots of farmland and food? India, USA, France, South Africa? South American nations? Parts of Russia? Where can you survive if modern society breaks down?

World War Z? They are the people with no food and no wealth thus in a way they could be considered the dead.
 

THESIS THORON

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He oversimplifies stuff but he's handing out copium so...
Here's some, guys-


Sniff it. Breath it all in.

Know that China can NOT afford to mess around in a full fledged war with us without absolutely screwing up it's near and long term future.

after seeing this, btw nice insight.

but the demographic problem will hit us also :confused1:
 

prasadr14

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I had question if the war broke out then the war will be fought in our territory or theirs ?:notsure:
Neither has the capability or the capacity to fight in other's territory.
Either entering other's territory would be facing absolute extinction.

Russian invasion of Ukraine just proved the most important aspect of any war - logistics

There is a much higher chance of Pakis having success attacking India than Chinkies ever will.
 

Shuturmurg

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after seeing this, btw nice insight.

but the demographic problem will hit us also :confused1:
True, but ours is a natural drop, their drop was a super steep drop due to 1 child policy.
In 1967, fertility rate of china was 6.4, that went to 2.5 by 1982. In India it went from 5.75 to 4.70.
So, their dependency ratio will be much worse.

Btw, India just reached replacement fertility, china reached in 1991. China's working age population reached peak in 2017 :
.

So, for china it took 26 years to hit peak working population, for India it will take more since we didn't have steep drop.

Check population pyramids, India's is smooth curve, China's is super uneven :
 

mokoman

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Neither has the capability or the capacity to fight in other's territory.
Either entering other's territory would be facing absolute extinction.

Russian invasion of Ukraine just proved the most important aspect of any war - logistics

There is a much higher chance of Pakis having success attacking India than Chinkies ever will.
they have roads,rail network all across tibet . not to mention building more and more airports.

not war , but it wont be difficult for them to grab some valley in AP .
 

prasadr14

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they have roads,rail network all across tibet . not to mention building more and more airports.

not war , but it wont be difficult for them to grab some valley in AP .
Grab valley using what?

Even if they have rails, roads etc etc into AP, they still need move their men and material across to grab land.
Unless India just sits doing nothing while they are grabbing said land, it's not going to end well for any attacker.

AP has very inhospitable terrain for any attack from China.
China does not have any easy way to move into AP without facing hostile environment and the current infra may still not be suitable to move some of the heavier equipment.
All it would be need from India is some well placed attacks and the whole Chinese attack would come under a pincer and end there.

China moving their men and material into AP or anywhere into India without air superiority is suicidal.
 

mokoman

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Grab valley using what?

Even if they have rails, roads etc etc into AP, they still need move their men and material across to grab land.
Unless India just sits doing nothing while they are grabbing said land, it's not going to end well for any attacker.

AP has very inhospitable terrain for any attack from China.
China does not have any easy way to move into AP without facing hostile environment and the current infra may still not be suitable to move some of the heavier equipment.
All it would be need from India is some well placed attacks and the whole Chinese attack would come under a pincer and end there.

China moving their men and material into AP or anywhere into India without air superiority is suicidal.
how do u think they grabbed depsang , pangong tso F4 , hotspring ? and we almost lost entire chenmo valley

they have been building roads there for decades .

there are places in AP where we have no posts or roads , and they are building good roads right upto LAC

roads on chinese side means they can bring in lot more shit , balance is really in their favour.

not talking about full war . only god knows how that will go .
 

THESIS THORON

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how do u think they grabbed depsang , pangong tso F4 , hotspring ? and we almost lost entire chenmo valley

they have been building roads there for decades .

there are places in AP where we have no posts or roads , and they are building good roads right upto LAC

roads on chinese side means they can bring in lot more shit , balance is really in their favour.

not talking about full war . only god knows how that will go .
are we improving the infra ?
 

The Shrike

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Is our plan to keep having corps commander level talks with the Chinese for the next decade until their country collapses due to low birth rate? Copium is dangerous kids - one day you are occasionally snorting it for recreational use, and next thing you know you are an addict giving BJs under the bridge just so that you can get your next hit :dude:.
 

prasadr14

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how do u think they grabbed depsang , pangong tso F4 , hotspring ? and we almost lost entire chenmo valley

they have been building roads there for decades .

there are places in AP where we have no posts or roads , and they are building good roads right upto LAC

roads on chinese side means they can bring in lot more shit , balance is really in their favour.

not talking about full war . only god knows how that will go .
Missing the point here,
They grabbed them because we did not hit them back.

Once we hit them back, the situation changed.

Let us be frank, what they did by grabbing was not war. They just went there and pitched tents. Our political dispensation did nothing while they did it.

War is a totally different thing to grabbing land.

I am discussing a full scale war or a skirmish.
 

vidhwanshak

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Missing the point here,
They grabbed them because we did not hit them back.

Once we hit them back, the situation changed.

Let us be frank, what they did by grabbing was not war. They just went there and pitched tents. Our political dispensation did nothing while they did it.

War is a totally different thing to grabbing land.

I am discussing a full scale war or a skirmish.
What they did was an "act of war".
 
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