India-China Border conflict

[mist_consecutive]

we won't attack in tibet...sadly not even covertly....

sometimes i feel had Ramji the spymaster would had been living in this era

Not in Tibet, but maybe in Aksai Hind, take some in Pangong Tso, Galwan, Depsang, etc, nothing ambitious, only our rightful territory.

 

[ShouvikGhosh]

If usa thinks Taiwan then China may attack India
But the point is why will they
In this episode they have gained something

China will invade Taiwan I think, because the Chinese people have a stronger sentiment towards reunification of Taiwan. Also because invading Taiwan will be more economically viable. Most Nations don't even recognise Taiwan.

I don't think USA will retaliate with force. Because unlike Japan & Phillipines USA doesn't have a security arrangements set up with Taiwan.

I also don't belief that a full fledged Chinese conquest of Arunachal is possible. They will keep doing these salami slicing till they enjoy a tactical advantage in most of the boarder areas.

India is a Nuclear state & the Chinese wouldn't be able to bear a Russian type economic sanction after the military conquest of Arunachal. The stakes are just too high.

 

[The Shrike]

Possibly Taiwan will be the flashpoint, that's why US Navy has placed 3 Carrier Strike Groups in close vicinity to Taiwan and Japan

Repeating myself here, but an invasion of Taiwan will be extremely challenging and a huge military undertaking - the PLA is simply not ready to accomplish it for another 8-10 years or so. On the India border though there is scope for a conflict which the Chinese can start with limited objectives so as to keep it short and limited geographically - which can mean moving the border by as little as a few kilometres. Taiwan on the other hand has to be an all or nothing approach, they will have to successfully invade and hold on to the main island - if they lose they can forget their super power status and invading one of the minor islands will just spur defence spending of Taiwan and allies which will make a future invasion of main island much more difficult.

 

[Jimih]

On the India border though there is scope for a conflict which the Chinese can start with limited objectives so as to keep it short and limited geographically.

They are not fools. They know the consequences.

 

[ShouvikGhosh]

Repeating myself here, but an invasion of Taiwan will be extremely challenging and a huge military undertaking - the PLA is simply not ready to accomplish it for another 8-10 years or so. On the India border though there is scope for a conflict which the Chinese can start with limited objectives so as to keep it short and limited geographically - which can mean moving the border by as little as a few kilometres. Taiwan on the other hand has to be an all or nothing approach, they will have to successfully invade and hold on to the main island - if they lose they can forget their super power status and invading one of the minor islands will just spur defence spending of Taiwan and allies which will make a future invasion of main island much more difficult.

Man your severely underestimating the India Army.

The Chinese wouldn't be able to get past even the 1st border village by moving the border a little a few kilometres with evey conflict. They can only build bunkers in uninhabited land & build roads in area's inaccessible from the Indian side.

As soon as they take over the 1st human inhabitantion on the India side , it's not salami slicing any more, it's a full fledged war.

The Chinese couldn't even hold on their advantageous position in Galwan or Pangong how will they hold on to the entier Arunachal ?

On the other Hand. The Chinese have Worlds largest navy. They can easy cut off entier Taiwanese trade & mask the island from US warships using its navy . Then airdropping its soldiers from their transport aircraft after destroying the Taiwanese air defence. Taiwan can be easily surrounded & subjugated.

 

[prasadr14]

I have often heard China will invade Taiwan.

Would like to know how Chinese would do it without putting soldiers on ground on Taiwanese land.
Once the soldiers are on ground as occupational force, it would be an extended warfare.

Or is someone under the assumption that China will bomb Taiwan into submission?

Once the first bomb drops on Taiwan, it will pretty much be curtains to Chinese economy.

 

[no smoking]

I have often heard China will invade Taiwan.
Would like to know how Chinese would do it without putting soldiers on ground on Taiwanese land.
Once the soldiers are on ground as occupational force, it would be an extended warfare.

The problem with Taiwanese youth is that no one wants to join the army.
The latest poll shows over 60% of Taiwanese believe US will come to save them and over 65% of youth refuse to serve military.
So, one of major expectation in Taiwanese (not Mainland) is they will surrender if their airforce and navy lost.

In fact, no one in Taiwan is planning to fight to last standing soldier.

Basically, it won't be an extended war.

 

[prasadr14]

The problem with Taiwanese youth is that no one wants to join the army.
The latest poll shows over 60% of Taiwanese believe US will come to save them and over 65% of youth refuse to serve military.
So, one of major expectation in Taiwanese (not Mainland) is they will surrender if their airforce and navy lost.

In fact, no one in Taiwan is planning to fight to last standing soldier.

Basically, it won't be an extended war.

Funny thing about war is that no one knows what happens after the first shot is fired.

Even Afghans with house made weapons fought US allies to a stand still.
In Kashmir, bunch of Half bananas have been fighting us for decades.

While I give in to what you said, it does not need full population to fight.
All it needs is dedicated few to really hurt the invasion forces on the ground.
And to top it, China has bigger problems with their own populations dedication to their own cause.

Last but not the least, any war to be sustainable needs certain level of backing from major powers in the world.
Even if the west does not come to the rescue of Taiwan, the economic sanctions due to compulsions would basically set back China by decades.
This is even before China knows the outcome of whether or not they can capture Taiwan.

To top it all, imagine if Taiwan manages to bomb Beijing or some other critical city sitting on the east coast.
Unless we are to assume Taiwan's military is pathetic and would not be able to get even bomb across to hit China.

The whole capture thing boils down to how China can put boots on ground in Taiwan. Unless they get around that issue, Taiwan is not happening for Chinks.

 

[Vinash]

Invasion of Taiwan won't happen this decade.

 

[prasadr14]

Invasion of Taiwan won't happen this decade.

It all depends on how desperate Xi is.
If things go south, Xi and his supporters would be decimated.

To attack Taiwan, Xi would have to make a compelling case in front of the world.
West and even India would be forced to choose sides & any democracy choosing China at that point will have hard time selling it to their public.

In last 50 years, even major powers have had extraordinarily tough time to occupy a country.
China would face a similar situation with Taiwan.
Bombing Taiwan is markedly different to occupying Taiwan.

 

[maximus777]

IMO it's a bit premature for CCP to envision capturing Taiwan now. But in about a decade, they will clearly pull ahead as the number one superpower. All that massive investment in AI/Tech along with industrial scale stealing, they will close or exceed the qualitative gap with the West. Their demography would still be in their favor but not too much longer after that. If they get their calculations right, they should probably start their brazen invasion in the early part of the next decade. US/West will most likely only make some noises and impose sanctions. Not sure if Xi would still be around, but if they wish to make civilizational changes, they should make patience their virtue.

India is the only power with enough skin the game to stop them, but I doubt we would get involved if a distant Taiwan gets swallowed. If we really want to stick it to the CCP, we should covertly nuke arm Taiwan but I doubt any govt in India would have the testicular fortitude to do so.

 

[prasadr14]

IMO it's a bit premature for CCP to envision capturing Taiwan now. But in about a decade, they will clearly pull ahead as the number one superpower. All that massive investment in AI/Tech along with industrial scale stealing, they will close or exceed the qualitative gap with the West. Their demography would still be in their favor but not too much longer after that. If they get their calculations right, they should probably start their brazen invasion in the early part of the next decade. US/West will most likely only make some noises and impose sanctions. Not sure if Xi would still be around, but if they wish to make civilizational changes, they should make patience their virtue.

India is the only power with enough skin the game to stop them, but I doubt we would get involved if a distant Taiwan gets swallowed. If we really want to stick it to the CCP, we should covertly nuke arm Taiwan but I doubt any govt in India would have the testicular fortitude to do so.

For China to have a chance in hell to "occupy" Taiwan, it will be similar to what US did in Iraq.
China will attack and prop up a pro-China party and similar to Hong Kong will take it sweet time to spread it's tentacles into Taiwan. One day decades later, it will be organically assimilated.

That is the only play here.

There is no scenario where China is going to put millions of troops on ground in Taiwan and over power Taiwan by killing significant number of Taiwanese.
That is NOT a possibility now & not a decade or two as well.

 

[nixin]

Bravo! Chinese Rocket Scientist involved in DF 17 hypersonic missile program and other major classified program of China defects to Britain and then to US.

MI6 played a major role in this over the horizon 0peration.

Spoiler: TWEET_SOURCE

 

[Jimih]

Bravo! Chinese Rocket Scientist involved in DF 17 hypersonic missile program and other major classified program of China defects to Britain and then to US.

MI6 played a major role in this over the horizon 0peration.

Spoiler: TWEET_SOURCE

express.co.uk news, again Tabloid style reporting.

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

I have often heard China will invade Taiwan.

Would like to know how Chinese would do it without putting soldiers on ground on Taiwanese land.
Once the soldiers are on ground as occupational force, it would be an extended warfare.

Or is someone under the assumption that China will bomb Taiwan into submission?

Once the first bomb drops on Taiwan, it will pretty much be curtains to Chinese economy.

They will probably do a blockade, then let them wear out before doing anything.... Can easily capture the Taiwanese islands except for main island, that would be slightly tricky.

 

[Jimih]

Can easily capture the Taiwanese islands except for main island, that would be slightly tricky.

Ya, start with Spratly Islands

 

[altruist ROR]

Bravo! Chinese Rocket Scientist involved in DF 17 hypersonic missile program and other major classified program of China defects to Britain and then to US.

MI6 played a major role in this over the horizon 0peration.

Spoiler: TWEET_SOURCE

Hmm..
The panic is real

 

[mist_consecutive]

I have often heard China will invade Taiwan.

Would like to know how Chinese would do it without putting soldiers on ground on Taiwanese land.
Once the soldiers are on ground as occupational force, it would be an extended warfare.

Or is someone under the assumption that China will bomb Taiwan into submission?

Once the first bomb drops on Taiwan, it will pretty much be curtains to Chinese economy.

You know right China has prepared and kept ready a massive airborne and marine force that can be air-dropped and moved via amphibious ships to Taiwan at short notice ?

In short, yes they are planning to put a massive army on Taiwan.

Considering China has pretty much the whole European union on leashes, only a few countries will actually protest against it. How many countries tried to penalize China for bio-engineering a virus, releasing it to the public, and causing a global pandemic ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you like battle simulations, watch this. This loosely replicates a Chinese air attack on Taiwan to cripple its airfields, air defenses, and fighter fleet. China is on heavy handicap here (keeping around 1:1 numbers of fighter jets, no naval attack). British, Japan and USA join post 2nd and 3rd days to save them.


TLDW: Even with a massive handicap (few J-20s, no naval fleet, no numerical superiority, no ballistic missiles), the Taiwanese airforce fleet is basically wiped out by 3rd day.

 

[THESIS THORON]

Bravo! Chinese Rocket Scientist involved in DF 17 hypersonic missile program and other major classified program of China defects to Britain and then to US.

MI6 played a major role in this over the horizon 0peration.

Spoiler: TWEET_SOURCE

when will raw do this kind of stuff ?? otherwise we will always depend upon our research and TOT.

 

[warmachine541]

when will raw do this kind of stuff ?? otherwise we will always depend upon our research and TOT.

It is not in their mandate. BUREAUCRACY!!!