We ought to see warfare as an extension of the global geopolitical overview.
Let's ask ourselves, does it even makes sense for China to invade India? I mean, invading the world's 4th strongest nation makes little sense, even if you are the 3rd strongest nation.
So what are the geopolitical consequences of China invading -
- Taiwan :- Capture of historical territory, akin to India capturing PoK. Global sanctions, world powers breathing down the neck but probably won't help with boots on the ground. No one dares to invade mainland China anyway. Maybe some airstrikes or naval support in favor of Taiwan.
Chances of success:- moderate
- India :- Hardly will be able to capture minimal territory which is absolutely barren with no natural resources and inhospitable climate. Might even have to cede territory at a few places due to a counter-attack, might even lose and has to protect territory instead.
Global sanctions, world powers breathing down the neck but now you have an angry India which has direct land borders with China being armed by NATO nations with deadly weapons, and it will definitely come back to settle scores.
Chances of success:- Low to very low
So, what makes more sense ?