India-China Border conflict

[Mikel]

what ur calling "information war" isnt even a war , the pakistanis fooled indians and world media.

we are fooling our own people , mate that isnt a war.

we should be doing what the chinese are doing , simply release pictures with no context / text through unofficial channels.

pics get more traction , doesnt matter if its irrelevant or taken out of context.

like the ones below taken from LAC , these were released internally without any context , minimal text .

framed perfectly to give wrong impression



but the gov needs a spine for that.

That I agree with. Pakis fooled the world cause they bombarded social media with ISPR accounts. You post that story from a hundred different media accounts and you see the impact.

 

[Mikel]

 

[mist_consecutive]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

Excellent analysis !

Few questions, if I may -

• If we factor in that Chinese were unprepared to fight or escalate, how do you see the carefully-planned Galwan ambush fitting into their strategy ? I say ambush because they were carefully prepared to fight that day, from bringing special forces, arming troops with riot-gear and medieval weapons, and going straight to our officer (Col. Santosh Babu) ?
  
  
• China reinforcing Tibet-PoK makes sense because India may become adventurous as we grow as an economy and a military power. However, China attacking us (instead of holding a defensive posture like the current situation) makes little sense.
  What does China possibly suppose to gain from that ? They cannot steamroll us, both sides will take massive losses, possibly NATO jumping in, or at least a naval blockade. All this for a few kilometers of land ?

Thanks !

 

[altruist ROR]

Chinese Counsellor seeking reply form MPs got burns.

 

[Cheepek]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

Before that Doka La also, no? I think Doka La standoff was the beginning that scarred Chinese psyche.

 

[ezsasa]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

Any thoughts on how long will it take for PLA to learn the skill set manage the climatic conditions in that region? have they already mastered dealing with High altitude warfare, or is it in progress?

say they have 50,000 troops on that given day, within those 50,000 not every infantry man will be fighting fit. the longer they are deployed in the region, higher the chances for them to develop/refine SOP’s to manage high altitude medical issues.

 

[altruist ROR]

O bhai...
Impact of 1 pic, 1 dirty flag, 2 actors.

 

[The Shrike]

Any thoughts on how long will it take for PLA to learn the skill set manage the climatic conditions in that region? have they already mastered dealing with High altitude warfare, or is it in progress?

say they have 50,000 troops on that given day, within those 50,000 not every infantry man will be fighting fit. the longer they are deployed in the region, higher the chances for them to develop/refine SOP’s to manage high altitude medical issues.

4-5 years is what from some interviews of retired generals that i have listed to.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Thank you, that's very insightful. About point 46, why didn't you account for pakistan? Especially cuz there have been considerable degree of cooperation between the two countries and if we are going by the timeline of 5-7 years to conflict that means what if China-Pakistan all these exercises will finally culminate to that and we will see attack from pakistan too?

1. Their Forex reserves are just $18 billion which will deplete every year.
2. Their ECI is low and isn’t diversifying.
3. Their external debt is reaching 50% of their GDP which is growing and growing as they’re now stuck in a vicious cycle of debt.

4. Their currency is devaluing sharply in the long run.
5. After achieving “Strategic depth” in Afghanistan, they themselves are stuck in a 3 front situation; India, Taliban and TTP/Baloch Freedom Fighters (Insurgencies, which are very very high in intensity in low population density areas).

6. Their military is 1/2 the size of Indian military but their GDP is 1/10th the size of our GDP, which means that their military is 5 times bigger a burden on their country than India, and is already over stressed after they achieved their “Strategic depth”. Not to mention their government tax collection is 1.5 times less than India as %age of GDP.

7. They very well know that in an event of war their only port i.e. Karachi Port will be smoked up first as Port Bin Qasem is just 150km away from India.

 

[THESIS THORON]

O bhai...
Impact of 1 pic, 1 dirty flag, 2 actors.

someone just run facial recongnition ai on all propaganda vid of chinese,. collect all pics of their celebrities and train that algo on those pics.

many things might come out

ccp will go crazy

 

[India Super Power]

O bhai...
Impact of 1 pic, 1 dirty flag, 2 actors.

Bhai ye kuch jyada hi nahi ho raha hai bas 3-4 pics keliye
Are I think they should release more pics related to that clash
MEA is on track for now might be we could get some

 

[Blank]

India no match to China's border infrastructure build-up - Times of India

From Hotan in Aksai Chin to Nyingchi near Arunachal, Beijing’s dual-use infra poses major challenge

m.timesofindia.com

Cope train chuk chuk chuk!

 

[Blank]

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

 

[mist_consecutive]

This also means we will become 3rd strongest military power by 2030 below the USA and China.

 

[THESIS THORON]

This also means we will become 3rd strongest military power by 2030 below the USA and China.

projections are good but that thing is not coming out, due to corona

 

[mist_consecutive]

projections are good but that thing is not coming out, due to corona

Corona will hardly halt our growth anymore. Corona is receding (in the intensity of variant) and will be no more harmful than the common cold in the next 2 years.

 

[Jimih]

O bhai...
Impact of 1 pic, 1 dirty flag, 2 actors.

He was demoted last month

India-China Border conflict

Well done.

defenceforumindia.com

 

[The Shrike]

projections are good but that thing is not coming out, due to corona

Not just corona, this form is old enough that you can go back and search older threads on GDP and Economy (below is just one example), and compare their predictions vs what we have actually achieved. Truth is there are simply no guarantees to what will happen in the future.

India to see 3-fold jump in GDP by 2020, will become $5.6 trillion: Dun & Bradstreet

NEW DELHI: India will become a $5.6 trillion economy by 2020, according to research firm Dun & Bradstreet, which has predicted a three-fold jump in the country's GDP from $1.7 trillion last fiscal on the back of rapid investment and growing consumer expenditure. "Indian economy will become a...

defenceforumindia.com

Added: or this one

India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar

In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020: India will overtake China as the...

defenceforumindia.com

 

[mist_consecutive]

Not yet seen any Chinese robotic soldier on LAC, will help their real soldiers escape extreme cold: Security sources

New Delhi [India], January 7 (ANI): Amid Chinese media claims that robotic soldiers have been deployed by their Army, top sources in security forces on Friday said that even though no such soldiers have yet been sighted on the borders but it would be helpful for the People's Liberation Army to...

www.aninews.in

Army and MEA are in trolling mood.

Amid Chinese media claims that robotic soldiers have been deployed by their Army, top sources in security forces on Friday said that even though no such soldiers have yet been sighted on the borders but it would be helpful for the People's Liberation Army to do so as their troops are finding it very difficult to cope up with the bone-chilling winters there.

We are yet to come across any of these robotic soldiers armed with guns. But if the Chinese Army is doing so, it would help their soldiers who are finding it difficult to survive there, sources in security forces told ANI. The Chinese soldiers are finding it difficult to come out of their barracks as at many locations, they venture outside only for very short periods and get inside quickly, they said.

Last year also, they faced similar issues and had to bring in 90 per cent of fresh troops last summer to replace the older ones who had suffered severe cold-related injuries and trauma. Even during the deployment in friction points in the Pangong lake area, Chinese troops were getting rotated on an almost daily basis at high altitude posts and their movement had become very restricted.

 

[Jimih]

Not yet seen any Chinese robotic soldier on LAC, will help their real soldiers escape extreme cold: Security sources

New Delhi [India], January 7 (ANI): Amid Chinese media claims that robotic soldiers have been deployed by their Army, top sources in security forces on Friday said that even though no such soldiers have yet been sighted on the borders but it would be helpful for the People's Liberation Army to...

www.aninews.in

Army and MEA are in trolling mood.