India-China Border conflict

[Tshering22]

Actually, if IA is cool headed, we wont poke chinese any more. Politicians wont undertake symbolic moves against china (like bycotting beijing olympics). Sad IK.

If we want POK, best keep troop levels on LAC low. If LAC becomes LOC, chinese will be incentivised to join in. If it goes back to normal, they will have to ferry over men and material before doing anything- not in the 10-14 days our military plans for a war with pak.

LAC HAS become LOC long back. Do you really think that the PLA will go back? Go back where? They don't have troops stationed on the Myanmar, Laos & Vietnam borders except for some low-level border guards who rely on China's diplomatic and economic dominance. Vietnam is still a bit more equipped but Laos and Myanmar are virtually Chinese satellite states ruled by border police factions, conscripts, and local commanders who take a cut of money from the local cross-border trade.

The best of China's everything including rockets, artillery, missiles, air defense, etc. is centered around their eastern flank where their economic pride is. They will never move their troops away from northern, central, and southern commands that face Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Not because they are stupid but because commies are a paranoid lot.

This is notwithstanding the fact that their internal security needs are almost the same size as external ones, unlike us where our HMO spends a fraction of what MoD spends. When talking about wars, we are not factoring in their internal troubles. China is not a society that is used to upheavals like we are. For us, everything is just "yeah a controversy". A dozen such controversies in Chinese society and their regime will teeter to the brink unless they suppress the said information.

If they are flaring up the way they talk, then there is definitely a lot of problems somewhere inside. Remember that with the Communists.

 

[Tshering22]

Seems like we missed something today. Documentary calls it China border, Pema Khandu prefers Tibet.
High time, India needs to change foreign policy over Tibet.

We need more ministers from Arunachal Pradesh and even Sikkim, in the central government. Rijiju needs to be given a frontal role in this. He's the one most personally invested.

 

[Tshering22]

Chinks learning from Taliban.

This was the limit. I hope we are able to bust some heads when they enter Sikkim in the forthcoming war. There will be payback for this. And I sure as hell would volunteer if I have to. We have never backed down from a fight. CCP soyboys will rue the day they joined PLA.

 

[THESIS THORON]

This was the limit. I hope we are able to bust some heads when they enter Sikkim in the forthcoming war. There will be payback for this. And I sure as hell would volunteer if I have to. We have never backed down from a fight. CCP soyboys will rue the day they joined PLA.

and I wish this time we can free tibet.

 

[Tactical Doge]

and I wish this time we can free tibet.

1971: part II

 

[Mikesingh]

China arrests 15 Weibo users for revealing the use of film actors by PLA during Galwan propaganda videos. Their accounts were also taken down.

 

[mokoman]

Ermm no. That's exactly how it works these days. Even if you say something that you know is crap, if you amplify it with thousands of tweets, fb posts you can further your cause to a great extent. Al Bakistanis under Ghafoora were masters of this and huge part of the reason why doubts were sown among Indians about Balakot operation for example. If you wanna do propaganda, go all in. If you half-ass it it's useless

what ur calling "information war" isnt even a war , the pakistanis fooled indians and world media.

we are fooling our own people , mate that isnt a war.

we should be doing what the chinese are doing , simply release pictures with no context / text through unofficial channels.

pics get more traction , doesnt matter if its irrelevant or taken out of context.

like the ones below taken from LAC , these were released internally without any context , minimal text .

framed perfectly to give wrong impression

but the gov needs a spine for that.

 

[The Shrike]

No source mentioned though.

 

[altruist ROR]

Chinese bridge dated Jan 6.

 

[altruist ROR]

1971: part II

Tagra Raho

 

[XR SAM]

Looks like MEA grew some spine after all

Too little too late. The way they have renamed Arunachal and Assam Police saying Chinese are fuelling separatists, they are openly challenging the integrity of India. Nothing less than Changing One China policy will suffice at this stage. China respects power, they only responds to hard acrion. Don't know why aren't we doing this and making concrete relationship with Taiwan, Lithuania and other Anti China forces. Are we scared that they will start full fledged proxy war in North East and we will not be able to control that? Or the Chinese will give us NSG seat and UNSC seat and stop providing arms to Pakis? What we will get from the Chinese for this appeasement?

 

[Knowitall]

No source mentioned though.

 

[maximus777]

IA after the Nth round of talks

 

[Jimih]

Decoys

 

[Jimih]

'Rocket Man' is angry on Xi Virus

 

[rvats]

My god guys, this thread moves really fast!

 

[rvats]

Good morning!

Details of S-400 System and its AD cover.

- Details of key components like surveillance and fire-control radars, TELs, support vehicles etc. which constitute S-400 Air Defense Missile System.
- Configuration of a typical S-400 missile regiment.
- Likely configuration of S-400 squadron in IAF service.
- Hypothetical scenario of deployment of 2 x S-400 squadrons on India's western border, and the type of air defense cover provided by them.

- Coverage provided by hypothetical deployment of 2 x S-400 Squadrons. One squadron is in the general area of Jalandhar, and other Squadron is close to Bikaner. The image shows primary (91N6E 'Big Bird') and secondary (96L6E 'Cheese Board') radar cover, and range of 40N6E(400-km), 48N6E3(250km), and 9M96E2 (120-km) range missiles.

Complete video with details of the system and coverage:

 

[rvats]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

 

[Jimih]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

Summed up well Sirji

 

[FalconZero]

India-China stand-off

Here are some thoughts on the subject -

1. If you want to understand what happened in 2020, you need to first revisit an incident that happened in September 2017.
2. Modi had just become the Prime Minister, and the Chinese initiated a big incursion in the Chumar sector.
3. They came prepared with more than regular number of troops.
4. However, what they had not fathomed was the changed leadership at the center.
5. Indian Army reacted in a much more forceful manner.
6. A Brigade of 39 Mountain Division (Northern Command Reserve) was exercising in eastern Ladakh, and it was immediately pushed into the Chumar sector.
7. We even had special forces in the area.
8. I don't recall who it was, 14 Corps Commander or GOC-in-C, Northern Command, who used this opportunity to even push a brigade into DBO Sector.
9. In the two decade before 2014, the PLA was used to having its way.
10. But here, they suddenly found themselves outnumber 4:1, or even higher. And that too, in a sector where they're geographically very disadvantaged.
11. And they had to back down, w/o any concessions from the Indian side.
12. So, when 2020 happened, the Chinese came with a MUCH LARGER body of troops, AS COMPARED to their earlier transgressions in eastern Ladakh.
13. Because they had gamed that India will reinforce using local sources, and they had worked out numbers to maintain parity.
14. Please remember that the PLA earlier used to manage the whole of eastern Ladakh with just 2-3 Border Defense Regiments (BDR).
15. They could do this because they know they'll be the first ones to fire shots in anger and that India will not use its numerical superiority to do any hanky-panky.
16. But in 2020, they came prepared lest India repeat Chumar performance. The numbers they had were meant to have parity with our forces deployed upfront. They did not come to launch attacks or fight a war.
17. BUT -
18. What India did was completely out of syllabus.
19. We mobilized double quick and the Chinese suddenly found themselves facing ~three divisions worth of troops.
20. The Chinese suddenly found themselves on a weak wicket and had to pull in troops from Xinjiang Military Region, and if I go by some data that I've seen, even Combined Arms Brigades from one of the Group Armies situated outside the Tibetan Plateau (more than 2,500 km from eastern Ladakh).
21. The force level they've inducted just about gives them parity with us.
22. Now, if you're looking for attacking an adversary, you need at least 3:1 advantage in numbers. Sure, the Chinese have considerable firepower but except for Combined Arms Brigades from 76 or 77 Group Army, their best have not been committed. Xinjiang Military Region has their least modernized troops.
23. Having inducted troops, the Chinese then went about building infrastructure to house these troops. And remember, you don't need only accommodation for troops but offices, vehicle parking areas, ammunition depots, Petroleum-Oil-Lubricant (POL) depots, food, supplies, etc.
24. They basically had to build large cantonments because remember, what they has earlier were only couple of Border Defense Regiments.
25. From couple of thousand of troops, the Chinese went to 50,000+ troops in a few months.
26. Yes, while also had to create new infrastructure, remember, we already has almost two division worth of troops already in the sector.
27. We went from X to 2X but they had to go from 0 -> 2X.
28. Hence, the massive infra that you see on Google Earth and various Twitter handles.
29. One more thing - while our lines of communication are tougher as we've to cross many mountain passes, the Chinese lines of communication to their LAC from major nodes is much longer.
30. So, if Rudok or Ngari is their equivalent of Leh, you'll see 2 to 3 sub-nodes from these super-nodes and their side of LAC.
31. The Chinese never came with the intention to fight a war; as it is, they'll never start a war if they're not sure of winning it.
32. They came with the intention of intimidating Indians, and to ensure that little bit of encroachment that they do, is not challenged and prevented by the Indians. Like Chumar where they had to back down because numbers weren't in their favor and Indians had made their intentions known.
33. But after Indians reacted the way it did, they had no option but to reinforce the sector themselves.
34. Because you, me and others on this forum and outside might feel that India will not be first to use force, as an adversary, you cannot go by this assumption. They'll do by capability because intentions can change and we'd planted the capability to go bang-bang if we wanted.
35. Chinese are now riding a Tiger they don't know how to get-off from. And they're stuck. Not least because Galwan happened.
36. Chinese cannot to be seen losing face.
37. As the bigger power, Chinese will lose if they're not seen explicitly as having won. While as a relatively smaller power, we will win if we simply hold them to stalemate.
38. Why is 2020 different from earlier times?
39. Well, earlier the Chinese ended up doing salami-slicing of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh with handful of troops. Now, they've to induct 50,000+ troops to try and retain few square kilometers of territory they've tried to grab.
40. Even that they've had to give-up in the process of establishing buffer zone, and disengagement.
41. A message has gone all over the world that there is ONE country which will stand toe-to-toe with the Chinese and not give in to their bullying.
42. What next?
43. Well, I see a major China-India confrontation coming-up in next 5-7 years.
44. Chinese are upping their infra in East, and developing a lot of infra here.
45. Especially in Eastern Ladakh, all this infra will form the firm base from where to next launch assault on India.
46. It could be in the form of short, sharp conflict with territory grab, or much larger one.
47. My estimate is that it will be a high optic, small, sharp, and intense operation where the Chinese will be visibly seen by everyone to have 'defeated' India.
48. They'll do this by achieving disproportionate superiority in one or two sub-sectors. And use the presence of their much larger force in rear areas to dissuade India from escalating the conflict further.
49. All in all, interesting times ahead.

Thank you, that's very insightful. About point 46, why didn't you account for pakistan? Especially cuz there have been considerable degree of cooperation between the two countries and if we are going by the timeline of 5-7 years to conflict that means what if China-Pakistan all these exercises will finally culminate to that and we will see attack from pakistan too?