India-China Border conflict

[scatterStorm]

@Spitfire9
In the glorious tradition of sleeping with the enemy
=========

#Britain's ambassador to #China is accused of 'lobbying' Cabinet Ministers on behalf of the Beijing regime Dame Caroline Wilson was appointed to the position last year Sources say she sends letters to Ministers arguing for appeasement of China

2/ When Ms Truss and Dame Caroline discussed China during Ms Truss’s previous job as International Trade Secretary, Dame Caroline asked why the UK didn’t adopt a more emollient approach to China, similar to how ‘we treat the French’.

3/ Ms Truss replied: ‘Because the French aren’t committing genocide.’ Beijing has faced international criticism for its persecution of minorities such as the Uighurs, including forced sterilisation and slave labour.

The Canadian politics is also been breached.

 

[Jimih]

That slogan was decades ago, don't think that level of china prem survive anymore in WB.

Party still has it,

CPM editorial blames Centre’s stance for China conflict

CPM editorial blames Centre’s stance for China conflict | Thiruvananthapuram News - Times of India

Thiruvananthapuram: Unmindful of the growing criticism against CPM’s soft stand on China after the Galwan Valley conflict that claimed the lives of 20.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[scatterStorm]

I see

Can somebody will tell this handler "can you please explain the recent rise of black-market organ trafficking's". I mean come-on.

 

[Jimih]

More videos, all right,

Aane do

 

[mokoman]

More videos, all right,

Aane do

there is a chinese dude on twitter who is mislabelling CCP videos , and posting them

his post even got mentioned in an article on indiatimes

really nothing going on actually . they have been posting military exercises since forever.

i dont know y these OSINT or news people dont do any research any more , just take random posts from people and make it into news.

 

[Jimih]

really nothing going on actually . they have been posting military exercises since forever.

And one of these military exercises did lead to occupation of our land in Ladakh.

Our ISR thought that it was just a mere exercise, even Ruskis downplayed it when asked (cannot confirm)

 

[mokoman]

And one of these military exercises did lead to occupation of our land in Ladakh.

Our ISR thought that it was just a mere exercise, even Ruskis downplayed it when asked (cannot confirm)

yea but that was close to LAC , our genius babus and generals fucked up . just like they fucked up in kargil , in 2013 depsang intrusion , in 2015 depsang intrusion.

all the recent ones are far away . in depth areas. besides , they already have gigantic bases 20km away from LA C , so exercises are moot .

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

 

[The Shrike]

No I mean economical not psychological.
Do we lose jobs? Food crisis? Medical crisis.
They say a war will push us 10 decades back but how?
I think war will make us stronger.

Who says that? And who the F says 10 decades instead of 100 years?

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

No I mean economical not psychological.
Do we lose jobs? Food crisis? Medical crisis.
They say a war will push us 10 decades back but how?
I think war will make us stronger.

Factors would include:-
1.) Destruction of infrastructure in forward areas and some key infrastructure even in depth areas. Gen Naravane recently said that counter to popular assumption, the escalation will happen in reverse linearity. Meaning long range vectors will fire first, infantry assaults will occur last on the escalation ladder. I have my doubts regarding this, but its the assessment COAS himself put forward. And its apparent that PRC has more long range vectors than us while also having less civilian infra and economic belt near the front than we do. If they target a big dam on our side, could be disastrous for us economically. But would the Chinese attack a target that isn't directly related to the war effort? Might be dependent on how many long range vector attacks we are able to defeat. If we defeat enough of them, PLA will be forced to focus on critical military targets and some civilian infra critical to military war effort.
2.) Cyber attacks could target civilian infrastructure, not sure if it could lead to a large public safety disaster, such as through sustained grid failures, targeting of railways or airport controllers, not to mention the economic cost of sustained grid failures even if limited to certain parts of India. Not sure if banking sector could be breached by PRC cyber attacks. Could it lead to an Industrial Chemical disaster like Bhopal? What about targeting a dam to cause flash flood? I don't know. The latter is likely low probability if our critical facilities have air gap in internet and LAN.
3.) Very real possibility of a bioweapon being unleashed on us with full plausible deniability to PRC. They could engineer viruses to be like that (mimicking natural evolution), as we've seen with the recent Covid pandemic. This puts an immediate retaliation with WMDs of our own out of the question. Plus, after the current pandemic, rest of world will promptly stop travel to and from India. Economic damage would be significant.
4.) If the Chinese have co-orbital killer sats, they could send our satellite program 10 years back, though I doubt they could do it at that scale. Maybe a couple of stray attacks targeting a couple of our EOS, simply to demonstrate capability for future conflicts and propaganda/intimidation.
5.) I don't think export-import will be hit permanently. GoI would have to weigh the risk-benefit of stopping shipments at ports under guise of inspection like it happened last year. Supply chains need to keep running, the war is not meant to be total, so even if both sides pay lip service to trade embargoes, the trade will simply get rerouted through third countries like Vietnam, etc.
6.) Medical won't get overloaded unless its a WMD attack on us.
7.) Could the PRC unleash a weapon that targets our agriculture? I don't know, but a crop failure can be managed to some extent through government financing imports. Unless its nation-wide or worse, region-wide.
8.) FDI and tourism might suffer some if we lose, but former could also grow if we get a stalemate or pull-off a victory.

After the war, we might get a few NPAs due to infrastructure loses and government and private finances might be stressed for a while. No idea of what will happen to markets, most likely will be related to extent of damage to us in the war (will be more of a factor than if we won or lost, especially for FIIs, in my amateur opinion). I don't think we'll be set back 10 years though. That is a stretch. Might only happen if the cyber attacks or bio attacks on us are disastrous. Areas in direct kinetic range could see a setback of 10 years though. And that could cause a nationwide slowdown for a couple years due to lack of government and maybe even private finances.

View attachment 120678

Men at war time surprisingly feel much more happy than at peace. A certain type of kinship which is lacking in modern society.

Modern war will not stretch out like the world wars, nor did they have internet back then, so the effect of war could be different.
People in bordering districts will definitely be affected, psychologically at least they will be primed. But majority of Indians will not be living in these areas. Considering them in three categories:-
First Category:-
Aspirational, patriotic Indians will likely be the ones concerned about the war, maybe more than even their daily lives.
Second Category:-
Aspirational, unpatriotic Indians will mostly be concerned about how it affects their personal dreams and goals, which would in most cases be linked to the economic impact of the war. If an economic slowdown occurs, these people will justify why going to war was a bad idea. They might blame China or our government or both. They would also bring in stupid questions like "why spend our tax money on war equipment that got destroyed". The SJW types will try to justify how its all politicians making people fight, etc. Usual nonsense. Unless these people directly lose someone close to them due to the war, they'll remain an unpatriotic bunch.
Third Category:-
Non-aspirational Indians will likely not think of anything beyond how it affects their pockets, their neighborhood and the security of those around them. Beyond that, it will be a TV show for them. Something happening far away and it doesn't matter because they are unaffected. Just slightly different from the usual daily drama on news channels, but similar to it. Unless they get unnerved seeing multiple attacks in random civilian areas in India.

Now do we know what % of Indians fall into each of these categories? My guess is that the majority belongs to the first or third categories.

And then there is the elephant in the room: The outcome of the war. Nothing short of a decisive victory where we win some ground and rub Chinese noses in the dirt will lead to a Nation-wide resurgence of patriotism and happiness. A mild victory will be celebrated most by the first category, but for the others, it might not be anything much different from winning a cricket world cup times 2 or 3. A stalemate will still be celebrated as a victory by many in the first category, but those in the second category will likely question the need to go to war over some remote areas they have no understanding of. The third category will be fine either way. If we lose slightly, might shock some folks from third category into action, make them a bit more aspirational and patriotic. It will definitely make the first category patriotic. Second category will likely lament "wastage of taxes" or might not be affected at all. If its a crushing defeat, I have no idea. But its likely that people will see it in the following light: "India is stronger than Pakistan so it wins every time, but since China is so much stronger than India, its only natural they defeated us in 1962 and again this time." Some will resist this kind of thinking, but the spirits of many others will likely break. The psychological barrier that got created in 1962 will get reinforced 10 times over. Calls of negotiated settlement (read acquiescing to China) will strengthen. greatly.

 

[Brood Father]

Someone shut up Rajnath Singh..

 

[The Shrike]

Some insights of the watershed

This is a good thread on the geography defining the actual MacMohan/India's border line (claim). A few days back there was a report on a new border village being built in "Indian territory" - yes it was in territory we claim on our official map but on the Tibetan side of the watershed, where we never had control anyways, and that’s fine we are not doing much about it. But if you see in the below regions ("Fishtail") we have officially showing areas in our own side of the watershed as the part of Tibet - and the Chinese are coming in to this area regularly to stake their claim. And for the Chinese to come here they have to climb over a high mountain range and then comedown to the valley, while we have to just move along the valley (i.e. it should be much easier for us compared to the Chinese). What the Chinese have done over the last couple of years is build border villages in all the "grey zone" areas they have active control (and within their watershed), while we seemingly seem to have refrained from even building connecting roads to the "grey zone" with in our watershed. Neither are we fixing the official map to include those areas. To what end - Don’t provoke the Chinese? You can safely bet these areas are going to be the target of the Next Chinese move, and apologist/IT cell walas will give the excuse we never claimed that area as ours.

 

[Cheran]

This is a good thread on the geography defining the actual MacMohan/India's border line (claim). A few days back there was a report on a new border village being built in "Indian territory" - yes it was in territory we claim on our official map but on the Tibetan side of the watershed, where we never had control anyways, and that’s fine we are not doing much about it. But if you see in the below regions ("Fishtail") we have officially showing areas in our own side of the watershed as the part of Tibet - and the Chinese are coming in to this area regularly to stake their claim. And for the Chinese to come here they have to climb over a high mountain range and then comedown to the valley, while we have to just move along the valley (i.e. it should be much easier for us compared to the Chinese). What the Chinese have done over the last couple of years is build border villages in all the "grey zone" areas they have active control (and within their watershed), while we seemingly seem to have refrained from even building connecting roads to the "grey zone" with in our watershed. Neither are we fixing the official map to include those areas. To what end - Don’t provoke the Chinese? You can safely bet these areas are going to be the target of the Next Chinese move, and apologist/IT cell walas will give the excuse we never claimed that area as ours.

A Himalayan Blunder: How our maps ceded land to China

A Sify Exclusive!BY SOURAV ROYThe Special Representatives of India and China completed their 11th round of talks on the border September 26 without much to show for it. The border has plagued bilateral relations ever since Independence, with China refusing to accept the McMahon Line drawn by the...

www.sify.com

 

[pipebomb]

Party still has it,

CPM editorial blames Centre’s stance for China conflict

CPM editorial blames Centre’s stance for China conflict | Thiruvananthapuram News - Times of India

Thiruvananthapuram: Unmindful of the growing criticism against CPM’s soft stand on China after the Galwan Valley conflict that claimed the lives of 20.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

CPM is spent force imho, bjp need to concentrate its fire on cong and spread itself, would like see bjp govt in WB, a bjp chief minister leading nda govt in bihar for whole 5 years

 

[Hari Sud]

Change the subject matter from discussing political issues of India-China war of 1962, and let us discuss a more pressing issue.

‘’Chinese have moved a copy of Russian Tuplov strategic bomber(Hk-7) to Kashgar city in Sinkiang. It is only 300 miles from the India border. How much threat does this bomber poses to the Indian defences in the depth?

‘Now the key question….. Does the Indian installed S-400 system in the northern sector shoot down this bomber before it crosses over to Indian territory.

If it does, then threat is to the Chinese pilots and crew who will fly this on an offensive mission is the greatest. Once, this bomber is shot down over China then it is a huge insult to the Chinese strategic offensive action.

Can a Brahmos missile on Su-30mki can bomb the base in Kashgar and prevent future threats. Is there any other missile in Indian inventory which can do the job.

 

[Love Charger]

Change the subject matter from discussing political issues of India-China war of 1962, and let us discuss a more pressing issue.

‘’Chinese have moved a copy of Russian Tuplov strategic bomber(Hk-7) to Kashgar city in Sinkiang. It is only 300 miles from the India border. How much threat does this bomber poses to the Indian defences in the depth?

‘Now the key question….. Does the Indian installed S-400 system in the northern sector shoot down this bomber before it crosses over to Indian territory.

If it does, then threat is to the Chinese pilots and crew who will fly this on an offensive mission is the greatest. Once, this bomber is shot down over China then it is a huge insult to the Chinese strategic offensive action.

Can a Brahmos missile on Su-30mki can bomb the base in Kashgar and prevent future threats. Is there any other missile in Indian inventory which can do the job.

Shaurya can , so can brahmos and when nirbhay is inducted

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

Change the subject matter from discussing political issues of India-China war of 1962, and let us discuss a more pressing issue.

‘’Chinese have moved a copy of Russian Tuplov strategic bomber(Hk-7) to Kashgar city in Sinkiang. It is only 300 miles from the India border. How much threat does this bomber poses to the Indian defences in the depth?

‘Now the key question….. Does the Indian installed S-400 system in the northern sector shoot down this bomber before it crosses over to Indian territory.

If it does, then threat is to the Chinese pilots and crew who will fly this on an offensive mission is the greatest. Once, this bomber is shot down over China then it is a huge insult to the Chinese strategic offensive action.

Can a Brahmos missile on Su-30mki can bomb the base in Kashgar and prevent future threats. Is there any other missile in Indian inventory which can do the job.

How far can the Chinese bomber target? And regarding S400, the Chinese have had it before us, they would certainly take S400s capabilities into consideration.

Btw when does the 2nd S400 arrive? Cause I read somewhere the 1st S400 will be mainly for Delhi, now whether this changed after last year's standoff or not, is something I am not sure of.

 

[Jimih]

CPM is spent force imho, bjp need to concentrate its fire on cong and spread itself, would like see bjp govt in WB, a bjp chief minister leading nda govt in bihar for whole 5 years

For that BJP has to wait for Mamta to either retire or die.

She is one lethal and brutal politician. Not kidding.

 

[Jimih]

To what end - Don’t provoke the Chinese? You can safely bet these areas are going to be the target of the Next Chinese move, and apologist/IT cell walas will give the excuse we never claimed that area as ours.

Exactly

 

[Brood Father]

For that BJP has to wait for Mamta to either retire or die.

She is one lethal and brutal politician. Not kidding.

Actually this is a misconception that any politician is invincible. No one is (except Joseph Stalin) ..
At one point Mulayam ,Mayawati and Lalu were looking invincible look at them now

Same with Mamta , how you chose to forget that year back she was fighting for survival but couple of good decision from her and bad decision from BJP got us here

BJP is still considered to be a North Indian party .The day BJP cultivates the local leadership (like HS Biswa) in Bengal , Mamta can kiss goodbye to her chair ..Subhendu looks promising but can he deliver we have to see