India-China Border conflict

[Optimistic Nihilist]

According to some message circulated by CCP 50 cent followers, Russia will be the last pawn for China to conquer. Basically they were pointing to some territories China lost to Russia long ago. For Chinese the entire world view is that they are master race and all others are barbarians. They have been wronged in the last 100 years now they can do whatever they want and the entire world should just sit back and bend over.

While this thread has been talking about everything related to military and geopolitics, what this thread misses is that Chinese demographics. You only fight a war when you have abundant young men in your country. The moment your country becomes a aging society where old people outnumber the young then any war will be a disaster. CCP and Xi knows that they can't reverse the current trend of Chinese having fewer children. The demographic collapse is imminent. If they plan to fight any war after 2025 they will have to take into account the worst case scenario of how many men they will lose.

Just ask Russia. WW2 was a death knell for Russia in terms of demographics. Even today 75 years after WW2 women outnumber men in Russia. Without favorable demographics going to war is suicidal in the long run. Whatever war Chinese have to fight for what ever reason, they have to do it before 2030. Their population pyramid is already inverted and it is only going to get worse from 2030 onwards.

I had posted this a while back:

China is projected to have 400 million less people by the end of the century. Their growth will be incredibly hard to sustain. Imagine the US losing 28% of its population from 1925–2000. That is what China is facing.

China will never start an actual war unless they have a brilliant plan that would knock out both Taiwan and USA out of the conflict. Keep in mind that all the problems in CCP: low birth rates, energy crisis and corruption would be uncontrollable in an all out war with US and would fuck china so hard that it would return to the state like it was in 50s.

 

[Jimih]

Same old, same old

 

[Jimih]

Under weak POTUS anything can happen

 

[Jimih]

Some insights of the watershed

 

[Tshering22]

‘Far weaker india…….. What do you mean?

If china was that strong then they would have taken all of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh including Sikkim. The Chinese know that one defeat and all their prestige is in the dustbin. That defeat could happen because 1962 India is a bad memory. Now it is very strong India. Moreover Chinese equipped with copied and reverse engineered military hardware can posture but cannot fight.

You are talking like an amateur now. Yes, their entire prestige is at stake with one war and that is what makes them worse - they will use any means necessary without giving any heed to the international rules of engagement of any sort. While our soldiers and side are capable of a solid defense, my fear is that we are not willing to go "far enough" due to our political obsession to hold a higher moral ground.

Prove me wrong here.

The former Mongol Empire had 2 main characteristics when they conquered enemies;

a) Psychological warfare - The Mongols were brutal with their enemy, even when they were weak. They would stop at nothing to intimidate an enemy even when they were the smaller force. Mutilating enemy traders, burning their cattle alive, pillaging and raping everyone they could find linked to the targeted kingdom until they either wore down or just surrendered out of fear. There was a method to their madness to gain undue advantage over even a larger enemy.

b) Extreme mobility - as we all know, Mongols were essentially cavaliers and used subdued kingdoms' soldiers for infantry combat. Their mobility along with their speed was due to their minimalistic lifestyle of living off the land. Their logistics were easy and practical.

While, modern China is not Mongol Empire, where the hell do you think they get their crazy ideas from? Sun Tzu? His treatise does not talk about warfare but the mindset of warfare. The lessons that the Chinese are using here are tactics from a mish-mash of Mongols, Huns, and imperial Japanese, in a modern-day context.

I don't need to tell you how mobile PLA is. Combine that with greater resources & superior logistics than any democratic country (except the US) can amass in today's times, They will be troublesome.

Our forces are strong enough to deal damage but it will only be enough to repel them and not destroy; Also, till CCP controls communication IN AND OUT of China, they can always censor their defeats and spin it off. Their real defeat won't come until their public hears about how they lose. One thing that India has failed to do miserably in all these years.

CCP is still stuck with the thought process of the 19th century and so is the Chinese population. They don't understand any other language. And our historic obsession with having moral ground whether in modern history or medieval history has always been our downfall. That's what scares me.

 

[mokoman]

Some insights of the watershed

good thourough thread.

basic summary is something like , Mcmahon drew the border line using terrain data which was not correct.

survey of india (gov) took it and simply overlaid it on actual terrain

google LAC (most places) is the actual correct one and follows what Mcmahon actually wanted.

@Haldilal if u can , do retweet it

 

[Jimih]

good thourough thread.

basic summary is something like , Mcmahon drew the border line using terrain data which was not correct.

survey of india (gov) took it and simply overlaid it on actual terrain

google LAC (most places) is the actual correct one and follows what Mcmahon actually wanted.

@Haldilal if u can , do retweet it

Not entirely fault of McMahon, technologies like today didn't existed back than when he drew the line.

SOI was incompetent back than and still now in present day, nothing changed.

@Haldilal nibba

 

[mokoman]

Not entirely fault of McMahon, technologies like today didn't existed back than when he drew the line.

SOI was incompetent back than and still now in present day, nothing changed.

@Haldilal nibba

SOI probably doesnt have the authority on its own to 'correct' the line .

babus werent interested either i guess .

so now decades later people are asking y chinese village is being built in indian lands

 

[Holy Triad]

Redrawing Army's command boundaries along China border step towards creating theatre commands

ANI | Updated: Nov 20, 2021 13:05 IST
New Delhi [India], November 20 (ANI): The redrawing of the boundaries of the Indian Army's commands looking after the China border is a step towards the creation of theatre commands and this will help in better management of the resources.
In a step towards better border resources management, the Indian Army recently brought the entire border along the China border in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand under the Lucknow-based Central Command.
The Chandimandir-based Western Command has now been asked to focus mainly on the Pakistan front, the sources said.
"As we move towards the creation of new theatre commands, this referring of boundaries and responsibilities of the operational commands was important," government sources told ANI.
The Department of Military Affairs headed by Chief of Defence Staff Gen Bipin Rawat has been asked by the government to create theatre commands to improve the jointness among the three services for war-fighting.
The China border was earlier looked after by the Northern, Western, Central and Eastern commands of the Indian Army but it will now be managed by three commands only.
Sources said that when the theatre commands are created, the western command would also be taken out from Jammu and Kashmir where it looks after a small portion of the Jammu sector.
Increasing responsibility of the Central Command also is important as the current Central Army commander Lt Gen Y Dimri is also conducting the study for the creation of the eastern theatre which would look after the entire China border from Himachal Pradesh to Arunachal Pradesh.
The union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh would continue to be looked after by the Northern command as the entire area is highly sensitive and would be brought under theatre commands gradually.
The three defence forces have been asked to submit their respective study reports on the creation of new theatre commands by April and the Indian Army nominated the Central Army commander Lt Gen Dimri and South Western Army commander Lt Gen AS Bhinder to conduct the study.
The Indian Army has also increased the allocation of forces for the northern and eastern fronts with China as an additional corps with armoured division has been given responsibility in the Ladakh area.
The eastern front has also been provided with a full-fledged Mountain Strike Corps to thwart any misadventure in the Arunachal sector by the Chinese Army.
The corps has also been exercising with other services to war-game the offensive operations in the eastern sector.

Redrawing Army's command boundaries along China border step towards creating theatre commands

New Delhi [India], November 20 (ANI): The redrawing of the boundaries of the Indian Army's commands looking after the China border is a step towards the creation of theatre commands and this will help in better management of the resources.

aninews.in

 

[warmachine541]

Construction halted on secret project at Chinese port in UAE after pressure from US, officials say

Look what the chinese are doing at their ports around the world.

 

[pipebomb]

I had posted this a while back:

View attachment 120616

China is projected to have 400 million less people by the end of the century. Their growth will be incredibly hard to sustain. Imagine the US losing 28% of its population from 1925–2000. That is what China is facing.

China will never start an actual war unless they have a brilliant plan that would knock out both Taiwan and USA out of the conflict. Keep in mind that all the problems in CCP: low birth rates, energy crisis and corruption would be uncontrollable in an all out war with US and would fuck china so hard that it would return to the state like it was in 50s.

But you have to hand it to them on their greyzone warfare

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

I had posted this a while back:

View attachment 120616

China is projected to have 400 million less people by the end of the century. Their growth will be incredibly hard to sustain. Imagine the US losing 28% of its population from 1925–2000. That is what China is facing.

China will never start an actual war unless they have a brilliant plan that would knock out both Taiwan and USA out of the conflict. Keep in mind that all the problems in CCP: low birth rates, energy crisis and corruption would be uncontrollable in an all out war with US and would fuck china so hard that it would return to the state like it was in 50s.

I wouldn't put it past China to force its people to have two kids. They could link it to some social scheme that greatly favours those with two children. Maybe limiting promotions or job opportunities or maybe even the cities one can move in to live. If you want to live in a Tier-1 Chinese city, and they impose the rule that you can move in there only after you have your second kid, the Chinese people will do just that.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

I wouldn't put it past China to force its people to have two kids. They could link it to some social scheme that greatly favours those with two children. Maybe limiting promotions or job opportunities or maybe even the cities one can move in to live. If you want to live in a Tier-1 Chinese city, and they impose the rule that you can move in there only after you have your second kid, the Chinese people will do just that.

Relaxation of the one child policy into the two child policy is like "neutral" policy. 3 decades of one child policy has built up a cultural aversion to have two kids, especially since the vast majority of people of childbearing age right now and a decade into the future are only childs, and only childs prefer to also only have one children.

To reverse the birth rate China has to actively be pro-natalist, and implement the same kind of penalties they had on people having multiple children, but in reverse on people only having one/none. Like literally issuing fines for people who choose not to have 2 kids, public shaming campaigns for people without children, preventing people from rising in the party/joining the party if they don't have at least 2 kids, and raising taxes on people not getting married and having children.

Although, good luck getting all those young men wives with the fucked up gender ratio that the one child policy created. China is going to have to deal with a literal generation of incels because of 1.15:1 M:F ratio. They will have to import women from other countries and that's going to be a load of fun.

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

Relaxation of the one child policy into the two child policy is like "neutral" policy. 3 decades of one child policy has built up a cultural aversion to have two kids, especially since the vast majority of people of childbearing age right now and a decade into the future are only childs, and only childs prefer to also only have one children.

To reverse the birth rate China has to actively be pro-natalist, and implement the same kind of penalties they had on people having multiple children, but in reverse on people only having one/none. Like literally issuing fines for people who choose not to have 2 kids, public shaming campaigns for people without children, preventing people from rising in the party/joining the party if they don't have at least 2 kids, and raising taxes on people not getting married and having children.

Although, good luck getting all those young men wives with the fucked up gender ratio that the one child policy created. China is going to have to deal with a literal generation of incels because of 1.15:1 M:F ratio. They will have to import women from other countries and that's going to be a load of fun.

There is a solution to the gender ratio problem:-

And they will take (probably already taking) Uyghur women. Killing the men.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

There is a solution to the gender ratio problem:-

 

[another_armchair]

I wouldn't put it past China to force its people to have two kids. They could link it to some social scheme that greatly favours those with two children. Maybe limiting promotions or job opportunities or maybe even the cities one can move in to live. If you want to live in a Tier-1 Chinese city, and they impose the rule that you can move in there only after you have your second kid, the Chinese people will do just that.

How much of China's population is likely to hit the not so productive age of 70+ in 20 years from now?

 

[Okabe Rintarou]

How much of China's population is likely to hit the not so productive age of 70+ in 20 years from now?

No idea, probably more than 25-30%.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

And they will take (probably already taking) Uyghur women. Killing the men.

Don't know how successful that would be. Uyghurs are not that numerous that they can reverse their skewed ratio.

But it could be done. Which is pretty fucked up when you think about it. The history on how the Uyghur women and men for that matter were brutalized and raped even throughout medieval times to just a couple of decades ago is devastating and almost borders on genocidal levels.

If the Chinks do try to reverse the gender ratio now using Uyghur women, you can bet that it will be through mass rapes for months on end.

 

[XR SAM]

Inshallah Bois played well and will continue playing like this

 

[mist_consecutive]

You are talking like an amateur now. Yes, their entire prestige is at stake with one war and that is what makes them worse - they will use any means necessary without giving any heed to the international rules of engagement of any sort. While our soldiers and side are capable of a solid defense, my fear is that we are not willing to go "far enough" due to our political obsession to hold a higher moral ground.

Prove me wrong here.

The former Mongol Empire had 2 main characteristics when they conquered enemies;

a) Psychological warfare - The Mongols were brutal with their enemy, even when they were weak. They would stop at nothing to intimidate an enemy even when they were the smaller force. Mutilating enemy traders, burning their cattle alive, pillaging and raping everyone they could find linked to the targeted kingdom until they either wore down or just surrendered out of fear. There was a method to their madness to gain undue advantage over even a larger enemy.

b) Extreme mobility - as we all know, Mongols were essentially cavaliers and used subdued kingdoms' soldiers for infantry combat. Their mobility along with their speed was due to their minimalistic lifestyle of living off the land. Their logistics were easy and practical.

While, modern China is not Mongol Empire, where the hell do you think they get their crazy ideas from? Sun Tzu? His treatise does not talk about warfare but the mindset of warfare. The lessons that the Chinese are using here are tactics from a mish-mash of Mongols, Huns, and imperial Japanese, in a modern-day context.

I don't need to tell you how mobile PLA is. Combine that with greater resources & superior logistics than any democratic country (except the US) can amass in today's times, They will be troublesome.

You are partially correct about the comparison of Mongols with China, I will even say it is just "causation implied by correlation" in the case of PLA.

Breaking down into granular parts of the comparison -

1. Pschological warfare :-
   • While Mongols indeed implemented fear tactics of surrender or perish, it was not their go-to tactics. First was diplomacy and alliance, often through marriage. Country following this ideology closest to its modern warfare version is actually USA.
   • A lot of other tribes, especially muslim tribes originating from Arabian and Persian peninsula were actually much crueler.
   • Chinese version of psychological warfare is 100-foot Chinaman image. They attack none, but create the illusion of power by indirect actions like building infrastructure (islands, villages, roads) and military posturing (intrusions, airspace violations, military excercises).
2. Extreme mobility :-
   • I will say this is nothing unique to China, in the way it was unique to Mongols. Any country with strong mechanized infantry & armour, that includes USA and Russia, posses good mobility.
   • Mongol mobility especially stands out during medival warfare due to two main reasons -
     • Their horse-back archers, which were unrivaled during that time.
     • Their nomadic lifestyle and symbiotic relationship with horses, which allowed them to carry or generate their own supplies (food, clothes).
   • The main reason the Chinese army "seems" mobile is because of their road infrastructure, which is frankly nothing unique because it is limited within their boundaries.
   • I will even argue that mechanized infantry and armour require more resources and hence even more unrealistic to keep supplied behind enemy lines.
   • A truly "mobile" force in today's modern warfare is actually USA, because of their air superiority and vast fleet of transport.
   • India possesses a shadow of that and we have always emphasised on behind the enemy-lines operations, by raising a dedicated PARA brigade with its own air-dropped mechanized artillery and armour battalion and pairing them up with special operation aircraft like C-130Js.

Our forces are strong enough to deal damage but it will only be enough to repel them and not destroy; Also, till CCP controls communication IN AND OUT of China, they can always censor their defeats and spin it off. Their real defeat won't come until their public hears about how they lose. One thing that India has failed to do miserably in all these years.

CCP is still stuck with the thought process of the 19th century and so is the Chinese population. They don't understand any other language. And our historic obsession with having moral ground whether in modern history or medieval history has always been our downfall. That's what scares me.

If you have observed carefully, China has actually been unable to stop negative news about itself from reaching a common audience. Whether it is the ridiculous claim of only 3 soldiers killed, or their retreat from Pangong Tso.
Yes, they captured and punished people who questioned it, but that did not stop the news from propagating. For the 1% who raised their voice, 99% were mute spectators and did nothing fearing their well-being.