India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[Indx TechStyle]

All in all we are nearly in stone age when it comes to chip manufacturing. ISRO is also helpless for all the good they have done. Until we decide to change things, it will remain same. We will keep exporting electronics from China Japan S korea

We can make chips and we already manufacture them for defence and research purposes in SCL Chandigarh and Bangalore at smaller scale than mass manufacturing.

Us being in stone age is an overblown statement hereby.

The concern is more of commercial viability than technical abilities in this case. A modern semi conductor plant set would take investment equal to economy of a medium size of country and it has risks to become outdated till its construction is completed. Semiconductor tech is a moving target and really tough for developing countries to sustain. Not China but US, Taiwan & Japan lead here.

China itself just a assembling country like India and not an OEM, imports 86% of its semiconductors for modern phones.

 

[dude00720]

We can make chips and we already manufacture them for defence and research purposes in SCL Chandigarh and Bangalore at smaller scale than mass manufacturing.

Us being in stone age is an overblown statement hereby.

The concern is more of commercial viability than technical abilities in this case. A modern semi conductor plant set would take investment equal to economy of a medium size of country and it has risks to become outdated till its construction is completed. Semiconductor tech is a moving target and really tough for developing countries to sustain. Not China but US, Taiwan & Japan lead here.

China itself just a assembling country like India and not an OEM, imports 86% of its semiconductors for modern phones.

China produces a lot of Wafers via a company called SMIC(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation)

Their customers include Texas Instruments, Qualcomm and Broadcomm. They hold the key in certain very important Areas,

FYI - Wafers are the base on which Integrated Circuit are embedded. So, Yes. China imports most of the chips.

Btw, Taiwanese company TSMC is world largest manufacturer of semiconductors. They have multiple foundries(or Fabs). They are news for having stopped Huawei shipments of chips. Or, will stop by , 2020 September.

India produces it's own chips, but, it primarily for defence and Space. It is still not a commercial player. A Semiconductor industry will not start unless Govt finances/subsidises it significantly.

While, I'm no fan of Govt in business, This is one sector, which is an exception. Remember, Jagadish Khattar from Maruti. He used to be an IAS and joined Maruti as a Govt nominee.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

We can make chips and we already manufacture them for defence and research purposes in SCL Chandigarh and Bangalore at smaller scale than mass manufacturing.

Us being in stone age is an overblown statement hereby.

The concern is more of commercial viability than technical abilities in this case. A modern semi conductor plant set would take investment equal to economy of a medium size of country and it has risks to become outdated till its construction is completed. Semiconductor tech is a moving target and really tough for developing countries to sustain. Not China but US, Taiwan & Japan lead here.

China itself just a assembling country like India and not an OEM, imports 86% of its semiconductors for modern phones.

, Semiconductor FAB sites are not THAT expensive. Yes. It’s an investment. There are dozens of Chip manufacturers in the US. And they do a damn good job at it.
guess who works for all these companies? GuessEd it right. Mostly Indian grad students. The number of students who work at Intel, amd, freescale,qnx, stmicro, applied materials is mind blowing.
Indian grad students get access to Fab design software during college itself. It’s really easy to pick up and not a whole big deal to it.
The real reason for little investment is little return. You will always have top notch products coming out of intel and amd or Qualcomm. Why buildour own when we have access to those chips. Issue is they keep getting better and better. They’ve moved from 200nm technology to 4nm technology. Put that in perspective, the band gap width of the cmos transistor on that chip is a 100 times smaller than the same thickness of your hair. That kind of continuous improvement needs a profit driven growth factor. You can’t fund it purely from the state. Unless we adopt or mandate most of the Indian manufactured chips for Indian products, or sign pacts with Taiwan which produces most of these chips, not too sure what we do there.

Also. There are TONS of VLSI experts in India. TONS. No joke.
You can have so many jobs created ifFAB sites are opened up here. Gives a great way to also build Network on a chip cards. All kinds of self made secure encryption devices could start flowing out.

 

[Tuco]

, Semiconductor FAB sites are not THAT expensive. Yes. It’s an investment. There are dozens of Chip manufacturers in the US. And they do a damn good job at it.
guess who works for all these companies? GuessEd it right. Mostly Indian grad students. The number of students who work at Intel, amd, freescale,qnx, stmicro, applied materials is mind blowing.
Indian grad students get access to Fab design software during college itself. It’s really easy to pick up and not a whole big deal to it.
The real reason for little investment is little return. You will always have top notch products coming out of intel and amd or Qualcomm. Why buildour own when we have access to those chips. Issue is they keep getting better and better. They’ve moved from 200nm technology to 4nm technology. Put that in perspective, the band gap width of the cmos transistor on that chip is a 100 times smaller than the same thickness of your hair. That kind of continuous improvement needs a profit driven growth factor. You can’t fund it purely from the state. Unless we adopt or mandate most of the Indian manufactured chips for Indian products, or sign pacts with Taiwan which produces most of these chips, not too sure what we do there.

Why not look into the future instead. We have already missed the silicon bus. Invest heavily in alternative materials research and tech development so that when next tech revolution comes we are at the forefront and not debating on how to catch up.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

Why not look into to future. We have already missed the silicon bus. Invest heavily in alternative materials research and tech development so that when next tech revolution comes we are at the forefront and not debating on how to catch up.

Semiconductor chips are not going away for a long time. They’re here to stay for the next century or so. Almost all our computing is driven by it.
The talent pool exists in India already. It’s bewildering how such a talent pool was created in the first place even though we don’t commercially produce so many chips here.
Jumping on the train is no big deal at all. Can be done this moment. All it takes is an initiative by some biggie to pour money into it in India. Ideally I would put it under the control of ISRO folks. They have proven themselves time and again with stellar management of resources.

The next generation of computing is quantum computing. That would be the next evolution. And that is a HUGE evolution. A literal human evolution. If we are successful with that, we could hypothetically contact extraterrestrial beings. For real.
I don’t see that hAppending too soon. It takes a brutal amount of research. If reports are to be believed, China is leading the way there in the amount of research done. USA is too, although the US hasn’t investedas much as the Chinese have. It has HUGE military applications.

 

[Indrajit]

Modi’s commitment to defence........

 

[Sehwag213]

^^^
Incorrect data . Why are you not including pensions of retired soldiers.

 

[Sehwag213]

The only criticism one can do is that Modi shouldn't have committed huge sum for OROP and used that money for modernisation the forces.

 

[Indrajit]

The only criticism one can do is that Modi shouldn't have committed huge sum for OROP and used that money for modernisation the forces.

The data is what it is. The OROP blunder was this government’s fault, can’t use pensions to buy systems, can we?

“Capex is worst hit at 0.74% of GDP in 2020 from a 1.34% of GDP in 2014.”

There is little to argue on this. I have always said that Modi was handed an economy in trouble but by own actions, including OROP, the situation has been made worse.

 

[Sehwag213]

The data is what it is. The OROP blunder was this government’s fault, can’t use pensions to buy systems, can we?

“Capex is worst hit at 0.74% of GDP in 2020 from a 1.34% of GDP in 2014.”

There is little to argue on this. I have always said that Modi was handed an economy in trouble but by own actions, including OROP, the situation has been made worse.

Does budget of 45 billion dollar also include salaries of active defense personnel?

So , how much of decrease in capex is due to increase in salaries due to 7th pay commission? Can someone confirm

 

[Indrajit]

Modi's bid to sway China's Xi with personal outreach was a big error. India's paying for it

India is now paying for those obsessions, and needs hard introspection, realism and course-correction, be it on China, US or Russia.

theprint.in

Shekhar Gupta article...^^^. Some comments about Pakistan and Bangladesh and Indian domestic policy causing friction excepted, reasonable reading especially w.r.t. China & US.


China

“There was also a definite misreading of Xi’s intentions, his powers and the way in which the Chinese system works. While Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng, as an individual, he might have less personal discretion over larger policy than a Modi.

India’s handling of him was immature, and since he kicked us in the shins in Doklam, the equation has shifted. It is now quite clear that he read Wuhan as Modi pleading with him not to create more mischief and upset his prospects in the coming elections. In these exchanges, if you respect the other side, you’d know that the Chinese think too. And they make their own assessment of your intentions, as you make of theirs. It doesn’t even matter who was right or wrong. What matters is what you get at the end of the day. That, in one word, is Galwan.”

US :

“Much of what hasn’t gone right, paradoxically, is linked to what has. The relationship with America, for example. Despite Washington’s responses so far, including the administration’s spirited defence of India in Congressional hearings on human rights situations in Kashmir and the CAA/NRC controversy, the overall relationship has remained transactional at a low, ‘small-deal’ level. It hasn’t been consummated like a ‘big-deal’ strategic alliance.

The reason is the Modi government’s inability to break out of historical obsessions with reluctant embraces, multiple alliances and that quaint, Indian notion of strategic autonomy. Even at the transactional level, Modi’s reluctance to sign even a tiny trade deal with Trump underlines his inability to shed this chronic Indian diffidence.

He happily went to Houston and chanted “ab ki baar, Trump sarkar”, and thereby, endorsed his candidacy for re-election, never mind the context. But he wouldn’t move on even a tiny trade deal. This, after so many commitments, promises and false hopes. Trump flew all the way to India in early coronavirus season on a short visit, mostly looking for a tiny campaign win such as this. But for the Modi government, misplaced ideology and irrational fear of global trade continued to drive India’s larger strategic interest.

This minimalism left no area of the relationship untouched, even military. In six years, India did buy a few small parcels of this and that from America. But no major acquisition, co-development or production started. None. It is a different matter that now when the Chinese have rudely kicked the door open in Ladakh, you have C-17s and C-130s, Apaches, Chinooks and M777 artillery to rely on. All of it has come from America, in retail purchases. Any of these could have been a larger, balance-shifting, co-production deal if the Modi government was willing to think big.”

 

[Mikesingh]

Sorry's to post this, but when did's this happened's . Did the PLAGF's troop's abodened their's Post's and Command's and joined the our's Side's, just joking's .

These are Chinese and Indian Army soldiers taking part in the joint counter-terrorism exercise ‘Hand in Hand 2018’ held in Chengdu, China.

 

[Sehwag213]

Modi's bid to sway China's Xi with personal outreach was a big error. India's paying for it

India is now paying for those obsessions, and needs hard introspection, realism and course-correction, be it on China, US or Russia.

theprint.in

Shekhar Gupta article...^^^. Some comments about Pakistan and Bangladesh and Indian domestic policy causing friction excepted, reasonable reading especially w.r.t. China & US.




“There was also a definite misreading of Xi’s intentions, his powers and the way in which the Chinese system works. While Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng, as an individual, he might have less personal discretion over larger policy than a Modi.

India’s handling of him was immature, and since he kicked us in the shins in Doklam, the equation has shifted. It is now quite clear that he read Wuhan as Modi pleading with him not to create more mischief and upset his prospects in the coming elections. In these exchanges, if you respect the other side, you’d know that the Chinese think too. And they make their own assessment of your intentions, as you make of theirs. It doesn’t even matter who was right or wrong. What matters is what you get at the end of the day. That, in one word, is Galwan.”

Yes Modi pleaded Xi to not upset his prospects in upcoming elections
This type of analysis is straight out of Congress IT cell that Pakistan did pulwama so that Modi could win election.

Which election is upcoming that is so important? Bihar election. BJP is winning it anyways.

 

[garg_bharat]

Modi's bid to sway China's Xi with personal outreach was a big error. India's paying for it

India is now paying for those obsessions, and needs hard introspection, realism and course-correction, be it on China, US or Russia.

theprint.in

Shekhar Gupta article...^^^. Some comments about Pakistan and Bangladesh and Indian domestic policy causing friction excepted, reasonable reading especially w.r.t. China & US.


China

“There was also a definite misreading of Xi’s intentions, his powers and the way in which the Chinese system works. While Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng, as an individual, he might have less personal discretion over larger policy than a Modi.

India’s handling of him was immature, and since he kicked us in the shins in Doklam, the equation has shifted. It is now quite clear that he read Wuhan as Modi pleading with him not to create more mischief and upset his prospects in the coming elections. In these exchanges, if you respect the other side, you’d know that the Chinese think too. And they make their own assessment of your intentions, as you make of theirs. It doesn’t even matter who was right or wrong. What matters is what you get at the end of the day. That, in one word, is Galwan.”

US :

“Much of what hasn’t gone right, paradoxically, is linked to what has. The relationship with America, for example. Despite Washington’s responses so far, including the administration’s spirited defence of India in Congressional hearings on human rights situations in Kashmir and the CAA/NRC controversy, the overall relationship has remained transactional at a low, ‘small-deal’ level. It hasn’t been consummated like a ‘big-deal’ strategic alliance.

The reason is the Modi government’s inability to break out of historical obsessions with reluctant embraces, multiple alliances and that quaint, Indian notion of strategic autonomy. Even at the transactional level, Modi’s reluctance to sign even a tiny trade deal with Trump underlines his inability to shed this chronic Indian diffidence.

He happily went to Houston and chanted “ab ki baar, Trump sarkar”, and thereby, endorsed his candidacy for re-election, never mind the context. But he wouldn’t move on even a tiny trade deal. This, after so many commitments, promises and false hopes. Trump flew all the way to India in early coronavirus season on a short visit, mostly looking for a tiny campaign win such as this. But for the Modi government, misplaced ideology and irrational fear of global trade continued to drive India’s larger strategic interest.

This minimalism left no area of the relationship untouched, even military. In six years, India did buy a few small parcels of this and that from America. But no major acquisition, co-development or production started. None. It is a different matter that now when the Chinese have rudely kicked the door open in Ladakh, you have C-17s and C-130s, Apaches, Chinooks and M777 artillery to rely on. All of it has come from America, in retail purchases. Any of these could have been a larger, balance-shifting, co-production deal if the Modi government was willing to think big.”

China is a tough nut to crack. Chinese attitude is to have the cake and eat it too.
Modi tried to make peace with China and failed.

Yes Modi's leader to leader approach has failed. Now there is no option but to prepare for war.

 

[garg_bharat]

I am not sure what is going on in the Indian defence establishment; but as a realist I must say that India MUST prepare for war at the earnest. A lot can be achieved by way of recruitment, training, and manufacture of arms and ammunition if proper planning is done quickly and execution starts.

Any delays will cost lives now.

 

[Indrajit]

Yes Modi pleaded Xi to not upset his prospects in upcoming elections
This type of analysis is straight out of Congress IT cell that Pakistan did pulwama so that Modi could win election.

Which election is upcoming that is so important? Bihar election. BJP is winning it anyways.

You should read the article, it’s an summarisation of what China and Xi’s probable thinking about the Wuhan summit. Not of now. You can dismiss it as wrong but then you will still have to come up with a reason for Chinese actions of the present if they didn’t think some variation of that .

I tend to agree that China decided to kick Modi and India in the shins because they were convinced that Modi had made no determined push to actually stand up militarily to China not withstanding Doklam. If that incident didn’t send alarm bells ringing and India still made no movement towards rapidly ramping up defence capability, which we didn’t; there is no other obvious conclusion to be drawn from that for those watching in China. Wuhan might have been okay if we had also moved towards shoring up our defence but the Chinese saw we didn’t and it’s a reasonably logical assumption to make that Modi came suing for peace because he wasn’t preparing India for war. The election bit might be a stretch but not one that could be ruled out completely considering their actions now which are contemptuous towards Modi and India.

 

[Mikesingh]

The only criticism one can do is that Modi shouldn't have committed huge sum for OROP and used that money for modernisation the forces.

Huge sum?? Are you for real? Cost of OROP - Rs 7500 crores per year which is peanuts. In contrast, since 2014, just ten states have waived and in the process of waiving loans of farmers to the tune of Rs 2,36,460 crore! You didn't mention this? And despite this largesse there has been NO improvement in the farm sector. . And this was just for 10 states! And how much of this amount has been pocketed in corruption? That's money gone down the drain.

Experts project that if the loan waivers are implemented nationally, it will cost about Rs 4 Lakh crores!! The massive amounts spent on useless farm loan waivers for votes every year during state elections eventually drastically affect the national balance sheet, not the measly Rs 7500 crores for OROP which guys like you are cheesed off about!

 

[garg_bharat]

You should read the article, it’s an summarisation of what China and Xi’s probable thinking about the Wuhan summit. Not of now. You can dismiss it as wrong but then you will still have to come up with a reason for Chinese actions of the present if they didn’t think some variation of that .

I tend to agree that China decided to kick Modi and India in the shins because they were convinced that Modi had made no determined push to actually stand up militarily to China not withstanding Doklam. If that incident didn’t send alarm bells ringing and India still made no movement towards rapidly ramping up defence capability, which we didn’t; there is no other obvious conclusion to be drawn from that for those watching in China. Wuhan might have been okay if we had also moved towards shoring up our defence but the Chinese saw we didn’t and it’s a reasonably logical assumption to make that Modi came suing for peace because he wasn’t preparing India for war. The election bit might be a stretch but not one that could be ruled out completely considering their actions now which are contemptuous towards Modi and India.

I have another theory. This theory is that all Chinese actions are planned years in advance; sometimes decades in advance. This is very different from Indian leader-oriented knee jerk reactions.

China is executing a plan which is given by Mao himself. Timelines do not matter. A country like China is capable of very long term planning. We do not understand it as we are not capable of understanding due to defects in our mental makeup and lower intelligence.

 

[garg_bharat]

Shekhar Gupta has the same shortcomings that other Indian elites have. He makes comments without a deep understanding of subject at hand. He is making comments on anything and everything. Obviously it is a business for him. The gullible think Gupta is some super intelligent person who knows everything.

I think the clash with China is inevitable. No Indian leader has the power to avoid it. Only thing possible is to prepare for the clash and at least draw the match if not win.

 

[Indrajit]

I have another theory. This theory is that all Chinese actions are planned years in advance; sometimes decades in advance. This is very different from Indian leader-oriented knee jerk reactions.

China is executing a plan which is given by Mao himself. Timelines do not matter. A country like China is capable of very long term planning. We do not understand it as we are not capable of understanding due to defects in our mental makeup and lower intelligence.

Any such theory has to take cognisance of present realities otherwise it would be an idiotic proposition. If a country made a determination decades ago about something but found common ground of either friendship or economics, it would be daft to rely on an earlier plan. Holds true for military cabilities of the chosen adversary..

Only if those basic parameters haven’t changed, would it make any sense to execute a decades ago predetermined plan.

My own opinion is that the Chinese decided on this particular action as a continuation of their border push but influenced post Doklam and Modi’s muddled signals. Whether this action was planned for this time regardless or whether it was an opportunistic move in the current covid situation is somewhat more difficult to answer.