India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

Sehwag213

New Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2020
Messages
2,311
Likes
12,087
Country flag
I have another theory. This theory is that all Chinese actions are planned years in advance; sometimes decades in advance. This is very different from Indian leader-oriented knee jerk reactions.

China is executing a plan which is given by Mao himself. Timelines do not matter. A country like China is capable of very long term planning. We do not understand it as we are not capable of understanding due to defects in our mental makeup and lower intelligence.
My thinking is that by 2022-23 we will complete most of our border infrastructure project and we will get Rafael ,S-400 etc. This will put China at a huge disadvantage. So they want to fight a war when they are still in advantageous situation.
 

Indrajit

New Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2018
Messages
4,242
Likes
16,090
Country flag
Huge sum?? Are you for real? Cost of OROP - Rs 7500 crores per year which is peanuts.
Not quite correct. That sum has been taken out of the defence budget and depending on the exact figures, may be between Rs.45,000 - 75000 crores in these 6 years. Hardly a sum to scoff on as peanuts.

Pointing out that farm loan waivers etc cost more is hardly going to help with the defence budget. Either way, this government has cut the legs off the defence budget and no amount of excuses will help.
 

garg_bharat

New Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
5,078
Likes
10,138
Country flag
Any such theory has to take cognisance of present realities otherwise it would be an idiotic proposition. If a country made a determination decades ago about something but found common ground of either friendship or economics, it would be daft to rely on an earlier plan. Holds true for military cabilities of the chosen adversary..

Only if those basic parameters haven’t changed, would it make any sense to execute a decades ago predetermined plan.

My own opinion is that the Chinese decided on this particular action as a continuation of their border push but influenced post Doklam and Modi’s muddled signals. Whether this action was planned for this time regardless or whether it was an opportunistic move in the current covid situation is somewhat more difficult to answer.
Imperial China claimed suzerainty over Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan as an extension of its claim over Tibet.[4] These claims were asserted by the Chinese imperial resident in Tibet in 1908, who wrote to the Nepalese authorities that Nepal and Tibet, "being united like brothers under the auspices of China, should work in harmony for mutual good." He suggested the "blending of five colours" representing China, Tibet, Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan as part of his program to assert the Chinese claim in the face of British opposition.[5] In 1939, the founding chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Mao Zedong termed Bhutan and Nepal as China's tributary states.


Lobsang Sangay, the leader of the Central Tibetan Administration, linked the policy with the Doklam standoff.[20] It has also been cited as the reason behind the 2020 China–India skirmishes by Sangay,[21] Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (leader of the Indian National Congress in the Lok Sabha),[22] Seshadri Chari (former foreign affairs cell head of the Bharatiya Janata party),[23] and M. M. Khajuria (former Director General of Police of the former Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir).
 

Indx TechStyle

Kitty mod
New Member
Joined
Apr 29, 2015
Messages
18,416
Likes
56,946
Country flag
China produces a lot of Wafers via a company called SMIC(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation)

Their customers include Texas Instruments, Qualcomm and Broadcomm. They hold the key in certain very important Areas,

FYI - Wafers are the base on which Integrated Circuit are embedded. So, Yes. China imports most of the chips.

Btw, Taiwanese company TSMC is world largest manufacturer of semiconductors. They have multiple foundries(or Fabs). They are news for having stopped Huawei shipments of chips. Or, will stop by , 2020 September.

India produces it's own chips, but, it primarily for defence and Space. It is still not a commercial player. A Semiconductor industry will not start unless Govt finances/subsidises it significantly.

While, I'm no fan of Govt in business, This is one sector, which is an exception. Remember, Jagadish Khattar from Maruti. He used to be an IAS and joined Maruti as a Govt nominee.
1. I already elaborated that we don't produce that commercially. I though have refuted that we are in "stone age" in this regard.
2. Those "lot" of chips China produces are useless for modern devices.
 

garg_bharat

New Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
5,078
Likes
10,138
Country flag
Not quite correct. That sum has been taken out of the defence budget and depending on the exact figures, may be between Rs.45,000 - 75000 crores in these 6 years. Hardly a sum to scoff on as peanuts.

Pointing out that farm loan waivers etc cost more is hardly going to help with the defence budget. Either way, this government has cut the legs off the defence budget and no amount of excuses will help.
I think issue is not income of military staff BUT effectiveness. If higher pay increases effectiveness then it is justified.
 

Tuco

New Member
Joined
Feb 16, 2009
Messages
2,918
Likes
12,258
Country flag
Make the armed forces earn money for the country by buying India made defense products. Which will indirectly fund the armed forces.
 

Indrajit

New Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2018
Messages
4,242
Likes
16,090
Country flag
My thinking is that by 2022-23 we will complete most of our border infrastructure project and we will get Rafael ,S-400 etc. This will put China at a huge disadvantage. So they want to fight a war when they are still in advantageous situation.
Im afraid adversaries cannot be expected to fight at the time of our choice. Which makes this government’s handling of defence all the more sad. Pick an aircraft that can’t be delivered for 6-7 years, kick all artillery purchased to the side, build almost no ships.....this on top of an OROP giveaway from the already squeezed defence budget.

As I have said, this is a problem coming down over the last couple of decades and not this government’s fault alone but this government hasn’t made any big moves to improve the situation. That’s simply a sad fact and one that we all must have no hesitation in admitting. Hopefully this has been a rude wake up call and pray that it won’t be a super costly mistake before we rectify the situation.
 

Knowitall

New Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Messages
7,930
Likes
35,898
Im afraid adversaries cannot be expected to fight at the time of our choice. Which makes this government’s handling of defence all the more sad. Pick an aircraft that can’t be delivered for 6-7 years, kick all artillery purchased to the side, build almost no ships.....this on top of an OROP giveaway from the already squeezed defence budget.

As I have said, this is a problem coming down over the last couple of decades and not this government’s fault alone but this government hasn’t made any big moves to improve the situation. That’s simply a sad fact and one that we all must have no hesitation in admitting. Hopefully this has been a rude wake up call and pray that it won’t be a super costly mistake before we rectify the situation.
The problem is everyone here is trying to look at the situation in black and white which simply doesn't work.

There is no black and white here. Did the government build border infrastructure better than the previous administration and allot more funds for it true.

Did the government sleep on the military budget and the overall modernization of the armed forces remain extremely slow and neglected also true.

Is the government standing up to the Chinese true but were they caught off guard and had put too much faith in their diplomacy yes that's true too.

The answer lies somewhere in the middle the government has achieved various degrees of success and failures in multiple domains on the Chinese front.

Too simply brush them under a simple good work or bad work doesn't do justice to the situation we are in.
 

cyclops

New Member
Joined
Apr 24, 2016
Messages
1,340
Likes
5,860
Country flag
, Semiconductor FAB sites are not THAT expensive. Yes. It’s an investment. There are dozens of Chip manufacturers in the US. And they do a damn good job at it.
guess who works for all these companies? GuessEd it right. Mostly Indian grad students. The number of students who work at Intel, amd, freescale,qnx, stmicro, applied materials is mind blowing.
Indian grad students get access to Fab design software during college itself. It’s really easy to pick up and not a whole big deal to it.
The real reason for little investment is little return. You will always have top notch products coming out of intel and amd or Qualcomm. Why buildour own when we have access to those chips. Issue is they keep getting better and better. They’ve moved from 200nm technology to 4nm technology. Put that in perspective, the band gap width of the cmos transistor on that chip is a 100 times smaller than the same thickness of your hair. That kind of continuous improvement needs a profit driven growth factor. You can’t fund it purely from the state. Unless we adopt or mandate most of the Indian manufactured chips for Indian products, or sign pacts with Taiwan which produces most of these chips, not too sure what we do there.

Also. There are TONS of VLSI experts in India. TONS. No joke.
You can have so many jobs created ifFAB sites are opened up here. Gives a great way to also build Network on a chip cards. All kinds of self made secure encryption devices could start flowing out.
Indeed, the expertise and the manpower is really not that much of an issue. However, a semiconductor fabrication plant is extremely expensive to construct and likewise expensive to run.

The sheer amount of constant electricity and clean water(both of which are very very precious in India) needed makes it an increasingly challenging task.

Moore's law makes it even more difficult and government entities won't alone be able to sustain a R&D and mass manufacture model, private cos have to come in amd lead from the front.

In essence GOI doesn't just have to support that desi semiconductor co with monetary, scientific and material(water, land, electricity, etc) support, it also has to make sure that the co gets enough demand for its products in India and abroad and basically has to incubate it and protect it from foreign competition till it reaches maturity and can compete and take care of itself.
 

Indrajit

New Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2018
Messages
4,242
Likes
16,090
Country flag
The problem is everyone here is trying to look at the situation in black and white which simply doesn't work.

There is no black and white here. Did the government build border infrastructure better than the previous administration and allot more funds for it true.

Did the government sleep on the military budget and the overall modernization of the armed forces remain extremely slow and neglected also true.

Is the government standing up to the Chinese true but were they caught off guard and had put too much faith in their diplomacy yes that's true too.

The answer lies somewhere in the middle the government has achieved various degrees of success and failures in multiple domains on the Chinese front.

Too simply brush them under a simple good work or bad work doesn't do justice to the situation we are in.
I concur with your post completely and I have elsewhere supported different actions of the government but what they haven’t done is now in focus and by no means does it belittle what has been done.
 

Synergy

New Member
Joined
Jun 27, 2020
Messages
680
Likes
2,074
Country flag
such childish post :hehe:

go back and read my post again, i simply said, we need tejas to fill in the numbers but we should also definitely start investing towards 6th gen fighers. or else we will be importing fighters from other countries for the rest of our existence.

5th grade bal-mandir vidhyarties makes such arguments.



let me ask you these? did we build generation 1, generation 2 tanks? but today we built a better tank called ARJUN MBT. it had flaws so with 2-3 years we even made more improved and deadlier version of ARJUN MBT - MK2 tank.

like wise, we never built, 2,3, 3.5 generation planes (except IAF marut with german engineers). but today, Tejas MK2 is already in sight with 4.5 gen standards and people have been comparing it with at least on par with similar class fighters from other countries.

now we if we had same arguments in 80's like we didn't build 2 or 3 gen planes or tanks how can we build 4th gen planes or arjun mbts??? - well guess what? we would not have seen tejas today, or it would have been impossible to talk about ORCA, MWF, TEDBF etc.

as @utubekhiladi mentioned, that tejas has revolutionized local industries and supply chain for our next gen fighters.. in due time, our local industries and capabilities will also mature...

world has already gone towards 6th gen fighters, there are several prototypes and variants. we need to have guts and catchup with rest.

or after 25 years, we will talking about importing 6th gen fighters from other countries on this same forum.
firstly, get some basic knowledge and understanding before writing something.

what's the production rate of Tejas? how long it will take to fill the gap?

leave 6 gen, how many 5th gen fighters are flying there?

Arjun tank based on which system/platform? who provides engine? who provides transmission and suspension? how much it weighs? (it's a formidable tank. no doubt about that).

yes, we have built fighters before Tejas that has given us much needed experience.
Tejas uses which engine? which radar? anyways, it has given us much needed experience to venture into next phase.

there are how many establishments in the world making battle tanks and how many are making fighter aircraft? can we compare apples with oranges?

from the advent of jet enging to 4.5th gen, fighters followed same philosophy. but from 5th gen onwards, it's completely uncharted territory.
fyki, Tejas was intended to replace MiG 21. and it has just piggy backed Marut.

name one 6th gen fighter prototype. lol. what do you smoke?

to build any building, at first we have to build the base. else... kaput...

do you have any info regarding how Japan has developed an engine for fighters?
being a developed economy and having a huge expertise, do you think Japan is so dumb to go for another 5th gen program when they already have F35?

our 6th gen should fall in which catagory? heavy? then what's about mediums? medium? then what's about heavies? or we will have heavy 6th gen, medium 6th gen and Tejas (later light 6th gen)?

if things were so easy, it wouldn't have taken 38 years to mature Tejas.

at first please get some basic knowledge and understanding. no point in thinking ourselves way too smarter than hal, ada, drdo, army/navy/af top brass, mod guys. ;)
 

LondonParisTokyo

New Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2015
Messages
2,971
Likes
8,238
Country flag

Shekhar Gupta article...^^^. Some comments about Pakistan and Bangladesh and Indian domestic policy causing friction excepted, reasonable reading especially w.r.t. China & US.


China

“There was also a definite misreading of Xi’s intentions, his powers and the way in which the Chinese system works. While Xi is the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng, as an individual, he might have less personal discretion over larger policy than a Modi.

India’s handling of him was immature, and since he kicked us in the shins in Doklam, the equation has shifted. It is now quite clear that he read Wuhan as Modi pleading with him not to create more mischief and upset his prospects in the coming elections. In these exchanges, if you respect the other side, you’d know that the Chinese think too. And they make their own assessment of your intentions, as you make of theirs. It doesn’t even matter who was right or wrong. What matters is what you get at the end of the day. That, in one word, is Galwan.”


US :

“Much of what hasn’t gone right, paradoxically, is linked to what has. The relationship with America, for example. Despite Washington’s responses so far, including the administration’s spirited defence of India in Congressional hearings on human rights situations in Kashmir and the CAA/NRC controversy, the overall relationship has remained transactional at a low, ‘small-deal’ level. It hasn’t been consummated like a ‘big-deal’ strategic alliance.

The reason is the Modi government’s inability to break out of historical obsessions with reluctant embraces, multiple alliances and that quaint, Indian notion of strategic autonomy. Even at the transactional level, Modi’s reluctance to sign even a tiny trade deal with Trump underlines his inability to shed this chronic Indian diffidence.

He happily went to Houston and chanted “ab ki baar, Trump sarkar”, and thereby, endorsed his candidacy for re-election, never mind the context. But he wouldn’t move on even a tiny trade deal. This, after so many commitments, promises and false hopes. Trump flew all the way to India in early coronavirus season on a short visit, mostly looking for a tiny campaign win such as this. But for the Modi government, misplaced ideology and irrational fear of global trade continued to drive India’s larger strategic interest.

This minimalism left no area of the relationship untouched, even military. In six years, India did buy a few small parcels of this and that from America. But no major acquisition, co-development or production started. None. It is a different matter that now when the Chinese have rudely kicked the door open in Ladakh, you have C-17s and C-130s, Apaches, Chinooks and M777 artillery to rely on. All of it has come from America, in retail purchases. Any of these could have been a larger, balance-shifting, co-production deal if the Modi government was willing to think big.”
Policy paralysis is the achilles heel of Indian "strategic" thinking!
 

Sehwag213

New Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2020
Messages
2,311
Likes
12,087
Country flag
Indeed, the expertise and the manpower is really not that much of an issue. However, a semiconductor fabrication plant is extremely expensive to construct and likewise expensive to run.

The sheer amount of constant electricity and clean water(both of which are very very precious in India) needed makes it an increasingly challenging task.

Moore's law makes it even more difficult and government entities won't alone be able to sustain a R&D and mass manufacture model, private cos have to come in amd lead from the front.

In essence GOI doesn't just have to support that desi semiconductor co with monetary, scientific and material(water, land, electricity, etc) support, it also has to make sure that the co gets enough demand for its products in India and abroad and basically has to incubate it and protect it from foreign competition till it reaches maturity and can compete and take care of itself.
This clean water for chip is the reason China wants to capture Siachin and Ladakh. They are afraid India will dam the river. They may be constructing or planning to construct a chip plant in PoK
 

Indrajit

New Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2018
Messages
4,242
Likes
16,090
Country flag
Policy paralysis is the achilles heel of Indian "strategic" thinking!
P.V. Narasimha Rao was famous for saying that the best thing to do in some situations is to do nothing. That though was a product of considered thought, no matter how much he was belittled for it. Now however as you have pointed out, “strategic thinking” is used to cover up policy paralysis using words like strategic autonomy, multipolar alliances etc. Grant the devil his due, the Chinese have shown that they suffer no such loony illusions nor do they suffer the foreign fools who are stupid enough to propagate such rubbish.
 

garg_bharat

New Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
5,078
Likes
10,138
Country flag
I concur with your post completely and I have elsewhere supported different actions of the government but what they haven’t done is now in focus and by no means does it belittle what has been done.
You guys forget that much of the funds of home ministry and surface transport ministry may be getting spent too. For example border road! Does it come out of defence budget?

There is no doubt that NDA has put significant focus on defence. Where they have erred is in understanding that timelines available to them was too small. China moved before India is ready.

However history is replete with such instances. You do not get war at the time of your choice. You have to make the best of circumstances.
 

HKedifier

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Jul 17, 2020
Messages
83
Likes
40
Country flag
The India-China conflict is rarely discussed in China, but it seems that many people in India discuss this topic
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Global Defence

Articles

Top