To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan needs a stronger army. Youth lacks patriotism to defend against China
Taiwan Army is a hollow shell: US analysts
TAIPEI, Taiwan —
If Taiwan is to fend off a Chinese invasion, it will need reluctant recruits like Roger Lin to summon the patriotism that inspired older generations but these days doesn’t burn as passionately in the young.
The 21-year-old French-language major regards his upcoming mandatory four-month military service as an unnecessary burden, even as complaints persist that such stints are too short to protect the island compared with the two to three years that previous generations served.
Weeks of flaring tensions between China and Taiwan, which has been buzzed by dozens of Chinese warplanes in a disquieting show of force, have not persuaded Lin to change his mind. If China and its much larger military decides to invade, the island’s devastation would be a fait accompli, he said, even with the outside chance the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense.
“The faster those four months pass, the better. It’s a waste of time,” Lin, swiping at his phone at a cafe on the campus of National Chengchi University in Taipei, said of his military service. “I don’t think the U.S. government will help us anyway. Whether they do or not, for us ordinary people, the outcome will be the same.”
Lin’s fatalism and indifference are somewhat expected among the young. But they come at a perilous moment. Fraught relations between Washington and Beijing are, more so than at any other volatile point, raising the possibility of war in Taiwan, a self-governed democratic island of 24 million that is roughly the size of Maryland. China has regarded Taiwan as a breakaway province since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.
The stakes for Washington are high. Losing a democratic Taiwan to China would probably signal the end of American power in the Pacific, freeing China’s military to project its strength in the region and beyond to the detriment of U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea.
Led by an increasingly nationalistic Xi Jinping, China has in recent weeks flown military sorties deeper into Taiwanese airspace and beefed-up military exercises aimed at invading the disputed territory. The best hope for preventing a conflict that would probably draw in the U.S. is Taiwan’s willingness and ability to deter China’s aggression, experts said.
Protesters gather Thursday near the Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles during a global day of action called by “Resist China.”
(Frederic J. Brown / AFP/Getty Images)
But the Taiwanese government has struggled to instill the same sense of urgency found in countries with national service requirements such as South Korea, Israel and even Singapore, which faces no immediate threats. A
recent pollsuggested the Taiwanese public was split on their willingness to repel an invasion even as the island remains overwhelmingly in favor of keeping free of China.
Taiwan’s active-duty military has shrunk to 165,000 from
275,000 three years ago. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army numbers 2 million.
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Under public pressure to move to an all-volunteer army, Taiwan began phasing-out conscription in 2013. Better pay, housing and college scholarships offered by the armed services haven’t been enough to attract Taiwan’s youth, a shrinking population on a progressive island where negative attitudes toward the military have been shaped by its past under martial law.
Taiwanese soldiers pause during a Jan. 15 military exercise in Kaohsiung, Taiwan. The island’s active-duty military has shrunk to 165,000 from 275,000 three years ago. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army numbers 2 million.
(Chiang Ying-ying / Associated Press)
“Taiwan doesn’t have that culture where you can go out in the street wearing your fatigues with pride,” said Huang Chung-ting, an assistant research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, the capital. “Soldiers leave as soon as they’ve completed national service. That’s a big problem. A lot of people think a good man doesn’t become a soldier.”
Lin Chen-feng, a 30-year-old salesman at an education start-up in Taipei, said he discounted the prospect of a military career after his national service.
“My friends and I didn’t consider the army a good choice because we felt like we would lose ambition and not be able to fit into the real world,” he said. “It’s shameful now, but we laughed at people who signed a deal to continue.”
That’s enraged some of the territory’s veterans who accuse the young generation of blissful ignorance in a time of existential threat.
“The young only like to criticize China with their keyboards, but won’t join the army to show their determination,” said respected analyst James Huang, 47, a retired lieutenant colonel who served in the infantry. “After a missile attack or bombing by the PLA, do they think they can still use the internet?
“People in Taiwan today are not prepared for war,” he added.
A stronger army is needed to deter a wider conflict that could entangle the U.S. at a time when calls are growing in Washington to defend the island.
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