India-China 2020 Border conflict

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mist_consecutive

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To train an in-experience force, you have to simulate war-time conditions. This is not Psy-Ops, it called "pre-conditioning". Take the example of Taiwan airspace raids. The bomber fleet along with SU27s are gradually increasing in numbers. Why is the question here?

The simplest reason I could think off, is to keep the enemy on heightened alertness, while this heightens the sensitivity, it also help pre-condition pilots to not flee from an air-battle, and so on D-day most of the pilots won't be reaching home ever again on the PLAF side, yet its is required to gain airspace deniel over Taiwan but with losses, and you cannot win the war without them, so preconditioning trains the pilots to cool-off some steam. Air squadron moral is always required during battle.
Interesting take about the pre-conditioning theory.

But don't you think this will be applicable for only a handful of pilots/soldiers? 30-40 pilots ingressing assuming complete air superiority and quickly turning away after challenged, is not really stressful.

Stress will be something when soldiers face imminent war-like situations, like the situation which brewed after Galwan clash or South Pangong Tso ridge capture. The situation could have turned south at any moment.

more PLA weirdness.

This is just trying to look macho thingies. They think these things are patriotic and cool, the whole world looks at them and thinks they are idiots with sheep brains.

Would it be a better option to provoke them by violating their air space, set a trap, lure them and shoot down a PLAAF jet in our airspace. Will be a massive score against the adversary. We can tell the world we shot down enemy jet that violated our airspace
Yeah, and unlike us, they are not spineless and will 100% counter-attack with a bigger ambush.

I am still angry IAF did absolutely nothing and swallowed the insult after Pakistan targetted our military bases and tried to take cheap shots at our jets from long range.

Pakis did this stunt on 27th Feb and unfortunately we were at the receiving end.
That's because of Wing Cdr. Abhinandan spectacularly walked straight into their trap.
 

mokoman

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Yeah but can't they just build ours here and now we will share profits with them these fks will die before forming and alliance with us we will get nothing like always if goi is smart they will set these fabs first and do something else later otherwise only china will dominate this and we would have missed the bus
most fabs are in taiwan , western world wouldnt let it all fall into chinese hands.

if the taiwanese move out the fabs , they will then be in weaker position.
 

scatterStorm

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These are just threats, a warning to keep Taiwan under constant pressure and fear.

No sane country flies its AWACS into enemy territory. It's just a message that says, "Look, we are so powerful we can fly into your airspace unchallenged, fear and obey us".



We will scramble ours, and the enemy aircraft will be challenged. Depending upon threat perception and availability, ground-based SAMs might be used to target enemy aircraft if they cross the LAC.
If they try any hostile action, they will be engaged with reinforcements.

But surprisingly, unlike PLAGF, PLAAF has largely maintained a big distance from our CAPs and LACs in general, maybe they don't want to show their tricks up their sleeve, or they are not confident enough in engaging IAF.
PAF has been more proactive in countering our CAPs than PLAAF.
Again, its experience vs inexperience playbook scenarios. The interesting question here is, does PLAAF understand modern rules of engagements. Example, when Syrian air strikes were ongoing, USA did notify the Russians, and thus both parties have to honor the quid-pro-quo or gentlemen's-agreement.

What I am worried about is, does PLAAF understands the rules of modern air-combat or are they living in the cold-war era, where everything will start-off with one PLAAF pilot not understanding the modern rules of air engagements, fire off a Fox-3.

Indian fighter pilots will have to suck it up with a possibility of this, which again begs the question, should we engage first, even though PLAAF has been tight G-locked on this.
 

The Shrike

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Again, its experience vs inexperience playbook scenarios. The interesting question here is, does PLAAF understand modern rules of engagements. Example, when Syrian air strikes were ongoing, USA did notify the Russians, and thus both parties have to honor the quid-pro-quo or gentlemen's-agreement.

What I am worried about is, does PLAAF understands the rules of modern air-combat or are they living in the cold-war era, where everything will start-off with one PLAAF pilot not understanding the modern rules of air engagements, fire off a Fox-3.

Indian fighter pilots will have to suck it up with a possibility of this, which again begs the question, should we engage first, even though PLAAF has been tight G-locked on this.
Rules of engagement are set by your own side, basically to avoid escalation (political directive), avoid friendly fire, civilian casualties etc. There is no such thing as "modern" or antiquated RoE AFAIK.
 

Mantospace

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Being a Nuclear Power does not give us a leverage to go for offensive mode..So atleast not offensive but they can do following things..
1) Increase our offensive defensive posture
2) strengthen our borders
3) Development of infrastructure
4) maximum use of indiginious weapons..
It has to be an Integrated Developement but the sad fact is we do showbaaji with dozens of phoren maal like Rafales, K9 vajra , Chinooks, Apaches, Spikes and M 777s which even wont last for 2 days when china attacks....

Atags ka koi pata nahi, bofors kaha kaha ghumayenge kabhi china ke border pe dikhta hai to kabhi pakistan ke, kestrel drdo ka logo vaala ladakh se uttrakhand tak ghumate hai, LCH HAL vaale apne paisa se banake de rahe hai fir bhi nahi le rahe hai Army ya airforce.

So inko chahiye to sirf Phoren maal aur gaal....

PATHETIC..
Our attitude is biggest problem, if god give us brahmastra then also we act like shanti dut.
 

The Shrike

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If someday PLA planes hover over our borders, what will GOI do then? Can't even say ''It's about perceptions anymore". Lol, where will you give Chai biscuit in the air?
A lot of people believe that this cannot happed near borders because of high altitude airbases etc. But I'm betting this will happen a few years down the line as PLAAF gets more air to air refuelling capability, the "mainland" plains are a lot closer to eastern AP then some people think (Chengdu to Walong is ~725 km, Walong to Hasimara is ~750km for example). What will happen if IAF radars sees 50 fighters heading towards NE? Taiwan has mostly stopped sending its fighters to intercept PLAAF fighters because they simply cannot sustain the rate of operation. With 30 odd squadrons and that to in the restrictive geography of the the NE, IMO we will find it challenging too, numbers matter at the end of the day. Of course I don't expect it to be reported as meticulously as the Taiwanese have done when it eventually happens 😉.
 

scatterStorm

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Rules of engagement are set by your own side, basically to avoid escalation (political directive), avoid friendly fire, civilian casualties etc. There is no such thing as "modern" or antiquated RoE AFAIK.
Agreed.

I have a different take to this, lets assume the possibility that upon constantly being challenged over radio by ground stations, as we rely on ground station to this day, and PLAAF ingresses over dokhlam in complete radio silence, should we engage or do we ascertain a PLAAF fighter squadron closing in yet not firing off its weapons package.

Example gulf war saw two su-24 (not sure) were following F14 tomcats, upon constantly warned to the Iraqi pilots, the F14 pilot finally engages with Fox2.
 

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more PLA weirdness.

Aur yaha mudi ji Sab letter, love, video, audio, mms pe kindling maar ke baithe hain.. Much release nahi hota.. Aur wahan Dhakka mukki hui nahin Galwan mein.. Pura Khoon bhari maang picture release kar diya.. :frusty:
 

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That's because of Wing Cdr. Abhinandan spectacularly walked straight into their trap.
Son of an Air Marshal just landed on their lap.. Hope IAF learns from this.. and keeps all sons of Generals away from the front, until War is declared.. because, a HVT being taken prisoner at the beginning of a potential conflict, can change the dynamics to our disadvantage, if it was our intent to escalate... ( Although I believe Modi had zero intent to escalate even if Abhinandan was not captured, but had been killed )
 

DownWithCCP

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Son of an Air Marshal just landed on their lap.. Hope IAF learns from this.. and keeps all sons of Generals away from the front, until War is declared.. because, a HVT being taken prisoner at the beginning of a potential conflict, can change the dynamics to our disadvantage, if it was our intent to escalate... ( Although I believe Modi had zero intent to escalate even if Abhinandan was not captured, but had been killed )
GO to sleep bro.
 

Maharaj samudragupt

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Son of an Air Marshal just landed on their lap.. Hope IAF learns from this.. and keeps all sons of Generals away from the front, until War is declared.. because, a HVT being taken prisoner at the beginning of a potential conflict, can change the dynamics to our disadvantage, if it was our intent to escalate... ( Although I believe Modi had zero intent to escalate even if Abhinandan was not captured, but had been killed )
You are right , its always better to run away then being captured alive.
 

HitmanBlood

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My analysis on CCP-US rivalry, Taiwan situation and its impact.


Taiwan situation is an interesting one. For long many strategists have suggested a worst case scenario for them and that was invasion by CCP.

Hear I have differentiated CCP from China because Taiwan is actually the real Chinese government that fled from the violence of Communist Party. So this conflict isn't about one country vs another but rather an ideological conflict of one country.

Now before discussing Taiwan situation lets go back to WW2.

After WW2, the world was divided into 5 zones for 5 victors. Each victor was given a region of influence and power that other victor won't interfere. This was the deal. China got much of the East Asia as part of the deal.

Taiwan was ceded by Chinese King to Japan in 1895 as part of a treaty and remained part of Japan for 50 years until end of WW2. At the end of WW2, westerners gave away island of Taiwan to Chinese as a gift for their assistance in defeating Japanese.

After RoC gov ran away to Taiwan island, it became a sour point for CCP. For them it was an ideological fight. Communism vs Democracy. The legitimate gov vs illegitimate gov. The state vs rebels. Bringing Taiwan under CCP control because an obsession in the party. The idea of unification of China was born.

USA, China and P5 world order

After braving the WW2, the mighty American military invaded Korea for ideological reson. Capitalism vs Communism. In this war a major rule of new world order was broken. "P5 countries will never directly fight eachother". When Korea was almost won by US led forces Chinese sent their soldiers to directly fight Americans. This shocked US and they backed off. Unification of Korea never happened.

For west what is more important than ideology is stability. There is a belief that P5 is important for maintaining world order. If this institution breaks down chaos would insure. This is why Americans who had capability to nuke China into oblivion at that time and only nuclear power on earth, simply backed off.

After this event both Americans and Chinese have held many talks to make sure such incidents don't occur in future and it never did.

Hong Kong and Western betrayal

Hong Kong was an ideological issue for many Chinese. There was always a belief that people in Hongkong are protected from totalitarian regime of CCP by support of democratic western countries. However when Americans made peace with Chinese in 70's one of the demand of CCP was Hong Kong, Macau and its permanent seat at UNSC.

For people of Hongkong this was betrayal of west and led to mass migration of population from HK. To save their face west signed a treaty that they knew CCP won't honour. This is exactly what happened and west remained silent. The ideology was sacrificed.

Taiwan and current situation

Taiwan is again an ideological issue for USA. For CCP its their Kashmir. In the minds of CCP cader, China isn't complete without Taiwan. So in the face of agressive CCP, Taiwan can only be protected by a full scale war with China. Thus another Korea in making.

USA today is not USA of 1950s and China today is not China from 1950s. One has lost considerable power and other has gained. A situation like Korean was would have concecqunces far greater today than it was in 1950s. Also this will break down post WW2 world order.


So, the question is will USA defend Taiwan?

for Americans war with China will mean a massive bloodshed. On top of that below scenarios will occur regardless of outcome of war.

1) They would have to pull their troops from all other bases around the world to fight against China. This will leave other fronts open for regional players. This means end of US world power status.

2) The US China war would also destroy American economy.

Both outcomes are unacceptable for any nation unless they are under a direct threat. Any President who decides to go to war against Chinese will have to face fury of American population who will be angry at the cost of this war. It will be a political suiside for that president and his party.

3) Unlike 1950's, there is a looming danger of nuclear war.

For a small island country which isn't even white, America will never go that far.


So what will US and west do?

First posturing.

2 or maybe 3 aircraft carriers in SCS to assert their power and Partnership with other Asian powers. These things are done to show an agressive posture of west towards China. They want to create a fog of war by saying that price of war is too high for "both sides". This may act as deterrent for some time.

Second is AUKUS.

It is a military alliance of Anglo-Saxons in Asia. It speaks one message loud and clear to China that, "stay away from whites". USA may not care about Asians but whites is off limits.

AUKUS maybe a preparation for coming Chinese dominance in East Asia. This alliance can also be used to bargain Chinese from position of strength. AUKUS can bring the fight to Chinese backyard.

AUKUS is also a peak into future new world order.

World trade and supply chains

Whether CCP invades Taiwan or not, the supply chains for western capitalist consumer machine must continue. China is world's factory. Therefore a deal with China, after their invasion of Taiwan would be needed for west. However with CCP, things can go in any direction so a deal may not be that easy.

The west needs an insurance policy. Vietnam , Phillipines are part of East Asia. The trade can be blocked by powerful navy of China, also East Asian countries can even be subject to soft takeover by China via coups as demonstrated in Burma.

So this leaves a golden oppertunity for India to absorb some of that industries. China knows this. It could be one of the reason behind Laddakh stand off. Chinese maybe trying to show that even India can be pushed down by mighty power of China, so there is no alternative to China.

QUAD and India

Japan is worried about increasing Chinese power in Asia. There is an element in Japanese society that yearns for the lost glory of Japan. Also Japan who once took Taiwan from China, can't see this development without feeling dishonour. A powerful, confident China that dislodged west from East Asia is also not in Japan's intrest.

India also isn't happy with China being all powerful in East Asia and India fears Chinese influence in Indian Ocean region. There is also an issue of Pakistan and terror which is supported by Chinese money and weapons.

USA is trying everything it can to contain China outside military option.

Australia before AUKUS deal was highly afraid of Chinese influence in East Asia and its impact on trade & security.

So QUAD was brought back to life. Its a non military containment of CCP. A cooperation between like minded countries, joined by ideology. Its a small glimpse of what would world look like if present world order breaks.


Future

Its been 76 years since end of WW2. In 24 years it will 100 years. The world has changed so much since then. The old allience that fought together are no longer relevant. The old enemies are no longer threats. New power centers are growing outside P5.

The new realities have made old WW2 era international institutions obsolete and bound for replacement and maybe Chinese invasion into Taiwan could be the event that puts the final nail in its coffin.
 
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