My analysis on CCP-US rivalry, Taiwan situation and its impact.
Taiwan situation is an interesting one. For long many strategists have suggested a worst case scenario for them and that was invasion by CCP.
Hear I have differentiated CCP from China because Taiwan is actually the real Chinese government that fled from the violence of Communist Party. So this conflict isn't about one country vs another but rather an ideological conflict of one country.
Now before discussing Taiwan situation lets go back to WW2.
After WW2, the world was divided into 5 zones for 5 victors. Each victor was given a region of influence and power that other victor won't interfere. This was the deal. China got much of the East Asia as part of the deal.
Taiwan was ceded by Chinese King to Japan in 1895 as part of a treaty and remained part of Japan for 50 years until end of WW2. At the end of WW2, westerners gave away island of Taiwan to Chinese as a gift for their assistance in defeating Japanese.
After RoC gov ran away to Taiwan island, it became a sour point for CCP. For them it was an ideological fight. Communism vs Democracy. The legitimate gov vs illegitimate gov. The state vs rebels. Bringing Taiwan under CCP control because an obsession in the party. The idea of unification of China was born.
USA, China and P5 world order
After braving the WW2, the mighty American military invaded Korea for ideological reson. Capitalism vs Communism. In this war a major rule of new world order was broken. "P5 countries will never directly fight eachother". When Korea was almost won by US led forces Chinese sent their soldiers to directly fight Americans. This shocked US and they backed off. Unification of Korea never happened.
For west what is more important than ideology is stability. There is a belief that P5 is important for maintaining world order. If this institution breaks down chaos would insure. This is why Americans who had capability to nuke China into oblivion at that time and only nuclear power on earth, simply backed off.
After this event both Americans and Chinese have held many talks to make sure such incidents don't occur in future and it never did.
Hong Kong and Western betrayal
Hong Kong was an ideological issue for many Chinese. There was always a belief that people in Hongkong are protected from totalitarian regime of CCP by support of democratic western countries. However when Americans made peace with Chinese in 70's one of the demand of CCP was Hong Kong, Macau and its permanent seat at UNSC.
For people of Hongkong this was betrayal of west and led to mass migration of population from HK. To save their face west signed a treaty that they knew CCP won't honour. This is exactly what happened and west remained silent. The ideology was sacrificed.
Taiwan and current situation
Taiwan is again an ideological issue for USA. For CCP its their Kashmir. In the minds of CCP cader, China isn't complete without Taiwan. So in the face of agressive CCP, Taiwan can only be protected by a full scale war with China. Thus another Korea in making.
USA today is not USA of 1950s and China today is not China from 1950s. One has lost considerable power and other has gained. A situation like Korean was would have concecqunces far greater today than it was in 1950s. Also this will break down post WW2 world order.
So, the question is will USA defend Taiwan?
for Americans war with China will mean a massive bloodshed. On top of that below scenarios will occur regardless of outcome of war.
1) They would have to pull their troops from all other bases around the world to fight against China. This will leave other fronts open for regional players. This means end of US world power status.
2) The US China war would also destroy American economy.
Both outcomes are unacceptable for any nation unless they are under a direct threat. Any President who decides to go to war against Chinese will have to face fury of American population who will be angry at the cost of this war. It will be a political suiside for that president and his party.
3) Unlike 1950's, there is a looming danger of nuclear war.
For a small island country which isn't even white, America will never go that far.
So what will US and west do?
First posturing.
2 or maybe 3 aircraft carriers in SCS to assert their power and Partnership with other Asian powers. These things are done to show an agressive posture of west towards China. They want to create a fog of war by saying that price of war is too high for "both sides". This may act as deterrent for some time.
Second is AUKUS.
It is a military alliance of Anglo-Saxons in Asia. It speaks one message loud and clear to China that, "stay away from whites". USA may not care about Asians but whites is off limits.
AUKUS maybe a preparation for coming Chinese dominance in East Asia. This alliance can also be used to bargain Chinese from position of strength. AUKUS can bring the fight to Chinese backyard.
AUKUS is also a peak into future new world order.
World trade and supply chains
Whether CCP invades Taiwan or not, the supply chains for western capitalist consumer machine must continue. China is world's factory. Therefore a deal with China, after their invasion of Taiwan would be needed for west. However with CCP, things can go in any direction so a deal may not be that easy.
The west needs an insurance policy. Vietnam , Phillipines are part of East Asia. The trade can be blocked by powerful navy of China, also East Asian countries can even be subject to soft takeover by China via coups as demonstrated in Burma.
So this leaves a golden oppertunity for India to absorb some of that industries. China knows this. It could be one of the reason behind Laddakh stand off. Chinese maybe trying to show that even India can be pushed down by mighty power of China, so there is no alternative to China.
QUAD and India
Japan is worried about increasing Chinese power in Asia. There is an element in Japanese society that yearns for the lost glory of Japan. Also Japan who once took Taiwan from China, can't see this development without feeling dishonour. A powerful, confident China that dislodged west from East Asia is also not in Japan's intrest.
India also isn't happy with China being all powerful in East Asia and India fears Chinese influence in Indian Ocean region. There is also an issue of Pakistan and terror which is supported by Chinese money and weapons.
USA is trying everything it can to contain China outside military option.
Australia before AUKUS deal was highly afraid of Chinese influence in East Asia and its impact on trade & security.
So QUAD was brought back to life. Its a non military containment of CCP. A cooperation between like minded countries, joined by ideology. Its a small glimpse of what would world look like if present world order breaks.
Future
Its been 76 years since end of WW2. In 24 years it will 100 years. The world has changed so much since then. The old allience that fought together are no longer relevant. The old enemies are no longer threats. New power centers are growing outside P5.
The new realities have made old WW2 era international institutions obsolete and bound for replacement and maybe Chinese invasion into Taiwan could be the event that puts the final nail in its coffin.
.
