Civil war in Ukraine

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
On Uglegorsk:

Semenchenko's Battalion Decimated at Uglegorsk

1/31/2015

Uglegorsk. Second Attempt.

By Yurasumy

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk


In the morning Semen who is Semenchenko made the following businesslike announcement:

[Semenchenko Facebook]

"Glory to Kievan Rus. Novorossia today [smiley] is a popular joke this morning. Go with God! It will be a good day. Glory to Ukraine

[The post earned 5491 likes and 171 reposts]

Then:

"We are assaulting Uglegorsk."

Then somehow the initial optimism vanished:

"Donbass battalion press service announces the following: on January 31, in accordance with orders from CTO HQ, the liberation of Uglegorsk begun, by units of the Ukrainian army, National Guard, and police battalions [presumably MVD]. The enemy fortified his positions at Uglegorsk over the past several days. There is heavy fighting on the approaches and in the city itself. Enemy defense was broken in several sectors," noted Semenchenko, adding that Ukrainian forces in Uglegorsk itself have been aiding the offensive for several hours.

And then Mochanov announced the "super-unpleasant" news:

"Debaltsevo—Uglegorsk road. Can't go any further. We were met by Donbass Bn and Semenchenko. Our guys could not break through to the garrison in Uglegorsk, they fell into an ambush in a fire sack—there were markers on trees indicating its location, just as the Institutskaya and Shelkovichnaya streets when they were shooting at the Maidan. It was hard. And loud. Artillery war and small arms fire at the "greenery". No communications with Svityaz [Ukrainian commander defending Uglegorsk], the information from our guys in Uglegorsk is most contradictory, very little of it is cause for joy" reports Mochanov.

P.S. Interesting, so Semen was actually"¦there?

P.P.S.: Judging by reports, everything was prosaically simple. For Semen the word "tactics" is just a word. And so is "experience." Therefore the "Donbass" guys simply got into their armored vehicles and drove off. They got pummeled by artillery, which was only to be expected, and whoever still could saved their butts. Semen, can I ask you a question? The same thing happened yesterday. When are your very own troops going to hang you from the nearest tree? Or maybe it had already happened, in which case we won't hear from you again. That would be too bad, because you are a terrific commander, from my point of view. If the Ukrainian army/national guard had more like you, the war would be over and I would be home.
"Apparently Ukrainian forces have major problems with combat effectiveness''--Uglegorsk update

1/30/2015

Uglegorsk Post-Factum

By Yurasumy

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk


Unfortunately I was absent, therefore I'm a little late with information.

The situation in Uglegorsk is becoming more clear. Judging by various sources of information, here's what happened. After a short artillery bombardment of Ukrainian positions (which was very effective), the assault group broke into the city. The first odd thing here is that, aside from the fortifications on the approaches to the city, there were practically no Ukrainian troops inside (up to one infantry platoon and two tanks). Therefore the city was taken almost instantly, and Novorossia forces were able to prepare for Ukrainian counter-attacks. And then they set a TRAP. Novorossia forces let the first wave of "liberators" into the city and surrounded them. The second column was destroyed by rocket artillery salvoes as soon as it left Debaltsevo. The first column was then simply finished off. Mopping-up operations continue, but without help from the outside, the National Guard forces that entered the town are DOOMED.

So I see the today evening situation something like this. Novorossia forces can no longer be ejected from Uglegorsk. One is left with the impression that the Ukrainian army and national guard cannot cover all the sectors and are starting to crumble. Apparently reserves on this sector have already been used up. All that's left is to shorten the front line and attempt to cover all the breaches. Therefore now the Ukrainian command faces the choice of withdrawing (in order to reduce the half-pocket area in half) and conducting a positional battle around Debaltsevo, or of trying to accept the risk and hold everything. In that case the entire Ukrainian grouping may suffer a very rapid catastrophe.

P.S. To be honest, the whole Debaltsevo situation is puzzling to me. The forces that were sent there could not have been used up so quickly. Judging by Novorossia actions, they also did not anticipate such a turn of events in Uglegorsk, but once they achieved a breakthrough they decided to exploit it to the fullest. Apparently Ukrainian forces have major problems with their combat effectiveness.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
Hope the best for them.. :namaste:
That news is unconfirmed. There are alternative sources that say Debaltsevo is not completely surrounded yet, but their movement in and out of the cauldron is restricted.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
REPORTS: Debaltsevo Surrounded. Rada Deputy Says National Guard Has Fled

Multiple sources are now reporting the same thing: the cauldron is closed


RI Staff [SOURCE]


There seems to be a number of sources (from both sides) now confirming what everyone long suspected: that it was just a matter of time before the NAF closed the Debaltsevo Cauldron. An LPR commander claims:

The militia has fully encircled Debaltsevo. Road to Artemovsk is under Novorossia control. It is impossible to travel on it, we are about to put up roadblocks. Ukrainian forces will attempt to break out, but they have relatively few forces left, they have problems with ammunition and food. The annihilation of the Debaltsevo pocket will occur in the near future.

Compare this report to an urgent plea from Rada Deputy Taras Pastukh, who is currently participating in the fighting at Debaltsevo:

"Greetings from the still-Ukrainian Debaltsevo. We just repelled an attack on our base camp. Earlier it could barely be reached by artillery, but today enemy infantry had arrived. The National Guard had left the city, thus leaving us open to attack. All blocking positions report constant shelling and tank attacks. We never received any reinforcement. It went to the CTO zone, but never went where it was needed."

"We are being abandoned here, while at the same time others are simply running away," he added.

He also asked the country's leaders for support.

"I ask for your help. Tell everyone you can about the critical situation here. Maybe someone got the idea I was excessively panicked, because the President had said that he had everything under control. Unfortunately, I was only wrong about the time, because I could not believe they would come at us with such force, while we continued to hope to abide by the Minsk Agreement and discuss whether a martial law is needed," noted the deputy.

In his words, "this is genuine betrayal of the country by the entire military command, including our so-called 'president'."

TASS is also reporting that Ukrainian troops in Debaltsevo are now completely cut off from reinforcements. Even The Los Angeles Times is relaying rebel claims that 8,000-10,000 Ukrainian troops are now trapped and can't escape without surrendering.

Stay tuned.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
Ukraine War: Debaltsevo Forces Cutt Off but Pocket Still Not Closed

The rebels have the only resupply route into Debaltsevo protrusion under effective artillery fire, but do not yet physically occupy it.

The Saker [SOURCE]

The Saker is our regular contributor. This article also appeared at The Vineyard of the Saker.



Here is, according to Colonel Cassad (by far the best source of info right now) the map of the situation this evening (local time):



The junta forces are definitely in a bad operational situation. They are surrounded all all sides except the north, but the highway leading north which the junta needs resupply its forces in and around Debaltsevo and which it could use to withdraw these forces is under constant Novorussian fire.

They crucial city of Uglegorsk (УГЛЕГОРСК on the map, bottom left) is mostly in Novorussian hands, but the outskirts are still held by the junta. In Chernukhino (ЧЕРНУХИНО on the map, bottom right) the Novorussian attack was successfully repelled by the junta forces.

Yesterday evening I listened with interest at the combat report of Basketok, the military commentator of the Anti-Maidan website who looked at the bigger picture and who commented in some details about the situation around Mariupol. So, as they say, there is good news and there is bad news.

The good news: the junta appears to be completely unable to mount any effective offensive. Except for one successful counter-attack north of Peski, even the junta can't even claim a single tactical success.

The bad news: the Novorussians are clearly stronger, and they are generally prevailing, but nowhere near the kind of superiority to achieve an operational breakthrough.

At this point in time, and unless something qualitatively changes, my very tenuous prognosis is that the Novorussians will close the Debaltsevo cauldron and most of the junta forces will either die or be taken prisoner with only a minority extracted on time. I hope that Novorussians will be able to take Avdeevka, Pervomaiskoe, Nevelskoe, Krasnogorovka and Mar'inka and relieve the pressure on Donetsk, but I don't see the Novorussians retaking Mariupol (I hope that I am wrong, of course).

If I am correct, and that is a very big "if", then the new frontlines will give the Novorussians a more or less viable line of contact. The one agreed upon in Minsk left most of Donetsk within striking range of junta artillery, unless, of course, the junta complied with a 40 or 50 kilometer withdrawal, which it clearly did not. This is why the Novorussians have indicated that a return to the original Minsk line of contact was unacceptable, and this is the correct decision, of course.

The last very good and important news item is that the junta's mobilization is a disaster which now forces the junta to even use road cops to hunt down draft dodgers. I know that I have said that many times in the past, and caught hell for doing so, but time is definitely not on the junta's side, not politically, not economically and not militarily.

UPDATE: Debaltsevo cauldron - still *not* closed:

According to Cassad, the cauldron is still not closed and I trust him. This being said, the Novorussians are holding the only highway out of the cauldron under their fire and they selectively allow some units to leave (medical, support & staff, for propaganda purposes) while destroying others (combat units). So even if the cauldron ain't quite closed, the junta forces are de-facto surrounded. See map (from Cassad):




 

asianobserve

Senior Member
Joined
May 5, 2011
Messages
11,370
Likes
6,575
Country flag
You are simply crazy. What the hell is your question about?? What do you mean by "sanctioned Putin".
Be careful at what you accuse others as it may apply to you more, which is true in your case. You want to argue with me and yet you're sorely deficient in facts. The US-EU economic sanctions against key Russian personalities intentionally do not include Putin himself so as to leave a diplomatic wiggle room for Putin. If the West is really bent on destroying Russia or even Putin then it would have totally sanctioned it and Putin.

Western sanctions are really a diplomatic tool to bring Russia to the negotiating table, one which sadly due to Putin's ego is not serving its purpose.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
Be careful at what you accuse others as it may apply to you more, which is true in your case. You want to argue with me and yet you're sorely deficient in facts. The US-EU economic sanctions against key Russian personalities intentionally do not include Putin himself so as to leave a diplomatic wiggle room for Putin. If the West is really bent on destroying Russia or even Putin then it would have totally sanctioned it and Putin.

Western sanctions are really a diplomatic tool to bring Russia to the negotiating table, one which sadly due to Putin's ego is not serving its purpose.
Be careful. That you called another member "Einstein" has not escaped my attention. Try to control your habit of name-calling.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
You are simply crazy. What the hell is your question about?? What do you mean by "sanctioned Putin".
He is not crazy (and no need to call him that). IMHO, he takes the State Department statements at face value.
 

asianobserve

Senior Member
Joined
May 5, 2011
Messages
11,370
Likes
6,575
Country flag
Be careful. That you called another member "Einstein" has not escaped my attention. Try to control your habit of name-calling.
Please try to remind posters to avoid accusing other members as peddling lies when they don't agree with their post. This kind of statements trigger forceful reactions that sometimes include name calling.

You keep on repeating the same lies over and over again. USA's war against Russia is actually quite old and did not stop with the end of cold war. We are seeing a new phase of USA's war with Russia.

Russia and China are the adversaries left in world domination spree of small clique that actually rules the Western world including USA.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
The US-EU economic sanctions against key Russian personalities intentionally do not include Putin himself so as to leave a diplomatic wiggle room for Putin.
The EU will never sanction Putin, so let's not even talk about it.

The US will not sanction Putin, because then, the following things will happen:
  • It will make Putin a hero in Russia, and his 83% approval rating will jump to 99%.
  • Russia will up the ante, roll Russia troops into Ukraine, and make life even more miserable for the Kiev regime, which will only make the US look weaker, and the US will have to swallow its pride and request "talks."
  • Worse (not worst) case, Russian tanks will roll into Lithuania, and surround some NATO bases and US soldiers, citing violation of "no permanent troops in Baltics," of which the US is party to. The US will not take any military action.

If the West is really bent on destroying Russia or even Putin then it would have totally sanctioned it and Putin.
The West has been hell bent on destroying Russia since the days of Tsar Nicolas. How did it work out so far?

Western sanctions are really a diplomatic tool to bring Russia to the negotiating table, one which sadly due to Putin's ego is not serving its purpose.
If Putin had ego, he's have shut out Russian gas exports to EU. Russia wouldn't earn money, the Russian people would suffer a little, but Putin would be fine in that case. However, Putin has one quality, and that is, he cares for the welfare of his people. This is one quality that is lacking in many western leaders.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
Please try to remind posters to avoid accusing other members as peddling lies when they don't agree with their post. This kind of statements trigger forceful reactions that sometimes include name calling.
I already told him not to call you crazy.
 

asianobserve

Senior Member
Joined
May 5, 2011
Messages
11,370
Likes
6,575
Country flag
The EU will never sanction Putin, so let's not even talk about it.
True.


The US will not sanction Putin, because then, the following things will happen:
  • It will make Putin a hero in Russia, and his 83% approval rating will jump to 99%.
  • Russia will up the ante, roll Russia troops into Ukraine, and make life even more miserable for the Kiev regime, which will only make the US look weaker, and the US will have to swallow its pride and request "talks."
  • Worse (not worst) case, Russian tanks will roll into Lithuania, and surround some NATO bases and US soldiers, citing violation of "no permanent troops in Baltics," of which the US is party to. The US will not take any military action.
Wrong. US and Eu will not sanction Putin or impose the kind of sanctions regime made on Iran because they want a diplomatic solution in Ukraine.

Regarding Russian invasion in NATO countries, Obama has categorically said that it will trigger NATO's Art. 5. I don;t think Putin wants that otherwise he would have steamrolled already to these countries.

Ukraine is another matter for NATO since it is not a NATO country. But I doubt Putin will send his tanks to Kiev. Want to bet your right testicles? :laugh:


The West has been hell bent on destroying Russia since the days of Tsar Nicolas. How did it work out so far?
This is the kind of stories that circles in Russia nowadays. Perhaps you should dig out who helped Russia the most during its 1920's famine...


If Putin had ego, he's have shut out Russian gas exports to EU. Russia wouldn't earn money, the Russian people would suffer a little, but Putin would be fine in that case. However, Putin has one quality, and that is, he cares for the welfare of his people. This is one quality that is lacking in many western leaders.
Well, it's not his lack of ego that keeping him from shutting down Russian gas supplies to the EU, it is his sanity. Russia is staying afloat until now due to gas revenues from the EU.
 
Last edited:

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
Wrong. US and Eu will not sanction Putin or impose the kind of sanctions regime made on Iran because they want a diplomatic solution in Ukraine.
Diplomatic solution and Molotov cocktails are mutually incompatible. Have you been paying attention to what others have said or the pictures that have been posted a year ago? Doesn't seem like it. You seem to love to repeat a fixed set of narratives.

Regarding Russian invasion in NATO countries, Obama has categorically said that it will trigger NATO's Art. 5. I don;t think Putin wants that otherwise he would have steamrolled already to these countries.
We can talk when Russia invades. Not interested in fantasy.


Ukraine is another matter for NATO since it is not a NATO country. But I doubt Putin will send his tanks to Kiev. Want to bet your right testicles? :laugh:
He does not want to as it is against the interests of Russia. He will instead kill the Dollar.

No, I don't want to bet my right testicle. I just want to boot you out for using vulgar language.

This is the second count of leniency I am affording you.

This is the kind of stories that circles in Russia nowadays. Perhaps you should dig out who helped Russia the most during its 1920's famine...:
Irrelevant.



Well, it's not his lack of ego that keeping him from shutting down Russian gas supplies to the EU, it is his sanity. Russia is staying afloat until now due to gas revenues from the EU.
I don't think Putin will let his ego come in the way of pragmatism.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539

The chocolate seller is in trouble.

Ukrainian border sealed to hold 80% of men fleeing mobilization - Minister of Defense

February 2, 2015
Russian RT
Translated by Kristina Rus
All regions of Ukraine managed to recruit only 20% of the necessary number of soldiers during mobilization. This was stated by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Stepan Poltorak. He proposed to limit the travel abroad of all men from 18 to 60 years old.

He explained that many Ukrainians are trying to avoid mobilization and migrate to other countries, RIA Novosti reported with reference to the Ukrainian media.

According to the head of the Defense Ministry, because of this, travel abroad of all men from 18 to 60 years old will be limited. "That's the reason for introduction of certificates at the border. All men who will fall under this category must provide a certificate, showing the cause of departure was approved. This should be done not only by those who have received the summons," - said Poltorak.

Translators Note:

The men voted with their feet, I will believe this survey before any other! How does the Ukrainian government think they have a mandate to wage war, if 80% of males are against it? And probably even a higher percentage of females. This will give you an idea of how much trust this government has and how much out of touch they really are!

As you can see, a possible future military junta (if Poroshenko is toppled) would have even less support, and only from their own active radical minority.

This actually means that there is a light at the end of the tunnel!

Ukraine is tired of war...
It is so clear now. Most Ukrainians don't want to be forced to fight, and the Nazi cowards would rather "Heil Hitler" and jump like monkeys in Kiev than fight like men in the front.

Why doesn't that Arsenic fellow pick up a gun and fight? After the coup d'état, he was blabbering "The-partment of The-fence," and "The-O-The." Idiot doesn't even know that Ukraine has a Ministry of Defence, not Department. What a sorry clown.
 

pmaitra

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
33,263
Likes
19,539
"A position of strength"--Novorossia negotiating strategy

2/2/2015

Kiev breaks off Minsk negotiations "within one step of capitulation."

By Russkiy Malchik

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The Minsk negotiations were broken off one more time, this time without having even started: DPR and LPR representatives never met Kuchma on January 30, and on January 31 it was Kuchma who had nobody to meet with. The situation would have been comedic had it not been for the continuing battles around Debaltsevo and the intensifying shelling of Donetsk and Gorlovka. But nothing has been decided yet, as the negotiations could resume any day: it takes an hour to get to Minsk.

One should not complain about the eternally failing negotiations: it takes no great skill to wave a sword around, but forcing an opponent to capitulate in a way that he himself does not notice takes consummate skill. What makes the current round of negotiations different is that Novorossia is dealing with Kiev from a position of strength. It's not even September, when Kiev was forced to issue a memorandum under the threat of losing Mariupol: back then Kiev was forcing only a scattered militia that had neither the experience nor the forces to take a major fortified area or, especially, a city. Now the Kiev forces are facing a powerful and effectively coordinated Novorossia army, which closed its flanks over the Debaltsevo salient. The pacification force is being defeated, there is growing discontent in Kiev, while the junta is under a growing pressure from various sides—the local radicals, the US, and Moscow which is compelling it to make peace. There is talk about the imminent overthrow of Poroshenko. What is more, the commander of the Azov pacification battalion for all intents and purposes forbade Poroshenko to conduct negotiations and warned that "Ukraine is within one step of capitulation."

Kiev's unwillingness to hold negotiations from such a weak position is understandable. Kuchma delayed his arrival on the 30th possibly because Poroshenko hoped the Debaltsevo salient would be relieved. But it did not happen, so Kuchma flew to Minsk but by then Novorossia representatives ignored the meeting. Moreover, they issued conditions: stop the shelling of Donbass cities and send a plenipotentiary representative (Kuchma, in Pushilin's words, does not have that status). In other words, Donbass will put down its signature only together with official government representatives of Kiev, ensuring automatic recognition of the Novorossia government by Kiev and its Western curators. After that one can negotiate as equals, assuming there will be someone to negotiate with (if there remains a single government in Kiev).

Russia's post-Crimea strategy, in spite of all the doubts in its effectiveness, is weakening the junta by hook or by crook. The main thing is that Novorossia's army must not stop before reaching a genuine agreement with Kiev. And until it pushes the pacification force as far as possible from its current positions. It is that offensive—difficult, bloody, and heroic—which with every kilometer is forcing the junta to capitulate.

Translator's Note: It is difficult to say whether "Russkiy Malchik" speaks for Zakharchenko or any other Novorossia leaders, but one has to keep in mind that his earlier writings described Novorossia's strategy of limited battlefield aims (and reasons for them) very accurately. What he writes here is also very consistent with Zakharchenko's oft-stated intent to bring Poroshenko to the negotiating table, sooner or later, and the later it happens, the worse Kiev's position will be. It may be that the reduction in the pace of Novorossia operations is motivated by the desire to give Poroshenko an opportunity to protect his "right flank" against the neo-Nazi radicals who very openly threatened a revolt should any agreement be reached in Minsk, before returning to the negotiating table and hammering out a final agreement. At the same time, Zakharchenko was careful to warn Poroshenko not to expect to use this relative lull to rebuild his badly damaged forces. However, it is clear that Novorossia's preferred endgame is a legal, binding agreement between Kiev and Donetsk/Lugansk on the special status of Novorossia. That is why there is little interest in seeing Poroshenko fall (which, incidentally, allows Poroshenko to get away with murder of innocent civilians on the Donbass). What is more, external pressure by EU, IMF, and even the US which thwarted the next tranche of IMF assistance, appears to have the intent of pushing Kiev in the same direction.
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top