Wao Mudi so Intelligent
Well why didnt he order more rafale,more meteor missiles,more AWACS or more MARS/MRTT or more Tejas after 27th feb dogfight?
Besides if one thinks 2 squadrons is enough then god help this country.We need 4 squadrons on just one front.If one takes into account specific missions and attrition then we could throw in additional 1 more squadron.So for both fronts we need 8-10 squadrons of rafale,which is never going to happen.Or even if it does then by then Rafale will be too outgunned and outmatched.
And Rafale production line could close in 5-6 years of time because egyptian and qatari orders have been fulfilled and our orders will be done by 2022 and french AF and navy will have their numbers by 2025-27.
Oh God, so the point is to basically complain complain complain - no matter what.
Those 36 Rafales were an EMERGENCY measure, until the MMRCA (which was being renegotiated at the time) could be thrashed out. We're fortunate he even went out on a limb in interest of national security and made that purchase.
Not just that, he risked paying the political cost due to the whole scam witchhunt - which would've been even worse with a bigger order. Not to mention, people would've just found a different reason to bitch at him, like "muhhh why didn't you sign a deal for ToT/Local Assembly of the Rafale order"
And I'm not even going into the cost aspect - which is conveniently being ignored.
Re: the dogfight - they immediately bought new missiles after that and changed the ROE's. Since then there's been one rumored engagement/strike, and multiple other occasions where PAF was baited but got cold feet and stayed away completely. What does that tell you?
And no btw, we don't need anything remotely close to 4 sqd's for Pakistan. Even the IAF + Navy's MiG 29's, Mirage 2000's, and a remaining mix of LCA's (once they enter service) can overpower the PAF - especially once they're fitted with Astras. And I haven't even accounted for all the Flankers they'd have to face yet.
60 odd squadrons is required because once you take into account the attrition rate and wear and tear during war lasting 2 weeks.Right now IAF cannot sustain more than 1 week of intense air war because of lack of munitions like PGB/LGB and faulty dumb bombs supplied by Muh OFB.
Difference is fighter capabilities is huge for sure but one fighter cannot be at 2 places at once.Is it financially impractical?Yes.It is not something we can fund today or in 10-20 years.If we need modern air force with adequate reach and firepower to dominate both china and pakistan then yes we need 60 squadrons.
No. 60 Squadrons isn't required or remotely realistic. Understand force multipliers, modern day Air Combat Ops, and conflicts in general. They're going to be rapid, short and intense - with a lot of swing role/swing theater ops. Check Gagan Shakti's findings.
Munitions shortage has nothing to do with my discussion of squadron strength/fighter acquisitions.
A ~45/50 Squadron force made up of LCA MK1A's, upgraded Mirages, upgraded MiG 29's and Su-30's, along with the Rafales - is more than capable of handling any contingency. I'm not even going into the projects/acquisitions of the future.
Nor have I factored in advanced ADS systems that India is setting up, further purchases of platforms like AWACS/Tankers, use of standoff weapons like Brahmos, or transfer of CAS role to what will be a significantly increased helicopter wing. That's how you face a collusive threat with reasonable numbers - not by chasing impossible numbers due to an imaginary worst case scenario, because there's no end to worst case scenarios.
Under-estimation of enemy always leads to bad decisions.
PAF although not very technically advanced but is still a pretty formidable foe.They have EW/ELINT aircraft that can jam our communications(they have demonstrated this capability),have adequate AWACS(more than us,lol) and MARS/MRTT fleet(not particularly great but still a nice addition in any AF fleet).S-400 is a proven dud system.We have seen its performance in syria and we will see again in libya where it will fail to shoot down anything.
But i do agree with PAF being outgunned with our BVR AAM missiles because we will be adding SFDR,Astra mk1a,mk2 and Meteor and MICA missiles.We already have python and derby missiles(though we could use these 2 in quite a bigger numbers).
I'm not underestimating Pak, all the people so concerned about a Chi-Pak axis are. Pak will get drubbed, even in a 2 Front War - India will drub it before swinging to the Eastern Theater, and it'll be much quicker than a lot of people seem to realize.
The only fighters worth taking seriously were their F-16's, which aren't that numerous, not all are upgraded, and even among the upgraded ones - not all are flying. Spares are a serious issue for them too.
You should check Divine Heretic's post on the other forum re: Feb 27 and how PAF used up pretty much every trick/ace card that it had saved for an actual war with India. They went all out that day to try and save face, they gained very little, but gave away most of the "surprises" they had been stocking up.
I do not agree on the S400, and it makes little sense to argue about that until those systems are seen in action during a conflict w/ Pak and/or China.
Yes.Chinese are at a disadvantage compared to us but when you take into account their tanker fleet,AWACS fleet and the ginormous number of 4th gen capable jets we start to see that IAF will have a really tough job at its hand.Not that it cant handle but will cause massive wear and tear and attrition obviously.Right now Chinese have some 7 airbases in Tibet and xinjiang region which can at best handle some 150-300 fighter jets.But in future they will have many more bases,frontline airfiels and ALG.
Chinese plan things in really long run(15-20+ years).Now when you factor that we have had light weight aircraft deficit since 90s(mig were darn obsolete back in 90s,limited range payload and radar capability,good enough for GCI only).Never really had a good Midweight category aircraft(mirage 2000 wasnt purchased in right numbers,and Mig-29s were again really limited by range and payload).In a country ours which takes 20+ years to finalise a deal for 7 squadrons and purchases only 2 should really be wary of any such country.
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So we agree India is capable of handling the current PLAAF. As for your speculations on the future, we will also have our own acquisitions and developments by then - while Pak will have likely only deteriorated.
And regarding the Chinese, they can add all the hardware they want, and build all the bases they want - but in actual training/capability of pilots - they might even be worse than PAF. Their Air Force is one of the biggest paper tigers, waiting to be exposed. There's no shortage of material online about the quality of their pilots/training and operational approach. The quality of their knockoff aircraft also remains to be evaluated in a conflict setting.
The thing is if IAF were given to fight on just one front then it will come out on top(but with good deal of attrition).But when it has to split its resources between 2 fronts then we are hopelessly outgunned.We only have 350-400 odd 4th gen aircrafts(not 4++).While Pakistan and china have combined 200+800/900(granted chinese can only deploy 300 at max).
What IAF needs is a comprehensive 10/20/30 year plan.Why so long,you might ask.Well it takes a good load of time to finalise a deal of combat aircrafts.Anywhere between 6-7 years minimum.We have critically short on force multipliers as well.Transport fleet will be in a state of disrepair in 5 years,already the An-32s have started to fall from the sky.Il-76s are also nearing the end of life and as for c-130s,we could use a lot more of them(anywhere between 40-60 for various roles),its a really flexible platform.Can be used for special forces operations to setup forward airbases in enemy territory(read up on first gulf war,how amreekis setup a FOB in iraq with massive heli and c-130 airlift).C-17s are really worth their weight in gold,IAF would be regretting not ordering additional of them when the line was open.
I have never said anything to the contrary. But your wishlist is huge, and eyewateringly expensive. Will take quite a bit of time, when all three services have big ticket priority items that are already above budget.
What IAF can do with present set of resources is build up numbers with right allocation of money on combat aircrafts for force multipliers and combat aircrafts.
It can have 50 squadron air force in 20 more years(which will be okay enough force for its time but will get the job done).
15 squadrons of Su-30,10 squadrons of Dassault rafale and rest 25 being tejas(larger number of mk2).
2 dozen MARS/MRTT
2 dozen AWACS
ELINT aircraft
A good transport fleet.
By the time this is realized(hopefully 2040) the Chinese will have perfected 5th gen tech and pakis might get their hands on J-31(Its pretty shit,even the chinese admit that).
Starting a dedicated EW school.Right now we dont have any good EW platform and rafale is a really good platform to start our school).
I am basing my points based on a book released by former ACM AY tipnis.
IAF vision 2020(you can search for it on internet).
I do not expect India to ever have a total of 10 Rafale squadrons. I'd be very pleased with even a total of 6.
India has to make LCA's like there's no tomorrow. MK1A's need a huge order ASAP, followed by MK2's. And ORCA simply has to become a reality, and must be used to supplement Rafale's in a cost effective manner.
The Navy acquiring TEDBF's will also boost overall capability and numbers in a conflict.
As for stealth, it all depends on how the AMCA pans out - in terms of project timeline and quality - otherwise I've always proposed buying some off-shelf squadrons of Su-57's from Russia and customizing them, it'd give us a squadron boost, get us used to flying stealth fighters, and aid the domestic 5 Gen project too.
