ADA Tejas Mark-II/Medium Weight Fighter

[Maharaj samudragupt]

So you mean unless the Military allowed to coup and CDS makes Modi dance we will keep saying IAS holds more power than Generals. This is the exact problem. People don't believe in rules and regulations they just want an absolute display of power.

General is an active part of DAC, DPC, and Military advisor while IAS has zero opinion on decision making except for few necessary inputs and formally signing a deal. Could you please tell me where IAS had a decision-making role in the Rafale deal?

Indian Army completed 5 years of work just in a year at Laddakh despite your claim IAS control money flow. then how is it possible? but it becomes possible Because General is just a call away to F#ck any irritant babu.

No , but cash flow should be controlled and scrutinized by the bureaucracy at all costs .

 

[IndianHawk]

You say more than 48 squadrons by 2035, I say if they could get to 42 by that time would be an achievement let’s see what the future holds!!

I was simply looking at how much we have to pay by 2035. We won't have 48 squadron as we will have to retire mirage Jaguar and mig29 by then.
( Only 37 Jaguar build in 2000-2008) might continue till 2040-45.

So by 2035 we might have
272 su30mki + 123 lca mk1a + 170-200 MWF + 108-144 Rafale. Total of 675 to 739 jets only.

Which equals to 37.5 to 41 squadron + 2 squadron of 37 Jaguar left. So total of either 39.5 or 43 squadron.

That is why number of MWF must touch 200 and rafale must be 144 for proper numbers.

 

[aditya10r]

So by 2035 we might have
272 su30mki + 123 lca mk1a + 170-200 MWF + 108-144 Rafale. Total of 675 to 739 jets only.

Which equals to 37.5 to 41 squadron + 2 squadron of 37 Jaguar left. So total of either 39.5 or 43 squadron.

Okay,

This is a really optimistic scenario and I do not think this will happen.
1. Rafales are too expensive and we cannot order any more of them anytime in the near future(2-3 years, factor in delivery times, and other shenanigans). Besides Dassault facility in France is totally booked right now for another 5-7 years. Orders are coming in from Croatia, possibly from Indonesia and more will come from Egypt. At most 18-36 more will be ordered and that's a big if and will most probably be delivered in the 2030s, by then would it really make sense to purchase such an expensive aircraft? I don't think so.

2. Metal cutting hasn't started for the Mk2 MWF so we cannot be sure about timelines now but probably it will have a much shorter development time than the OG Tejas. But it would still be ready for production at around 2030(Give or take 2 years or so).

Unless production is outsourced to some private vendor, do not expect HAL to crank out Tejas Mk2 MWF like pancakes because it will be in process of upgrading Su-30s which will consume a lot of its manpower and resources. So production figures unless not sourced to some other vendor would remain around 18 jets per year. All in all 5-7 squadrons by 2035 if things go as planned and IAF places firm orders as well.

3. Mirages and Mig-29s will serve at least till 2040. Why? because we cannot retire them and leave a massive capability gap in the air force. We still haven't retired Mig-21s despite it coming ridiculously old so the same will happen for Mirages and Fulcrums.

The final tally would something like this.

270 Su-30Mki(some 5 upgraded squadrons hopefully)
123 Tejas Mk1+Mk1A
90-126 Tejas Mk2 MWF
36(possible 54-72) Rafale
48 Mirages
87 Mig-29s
36 Jaguars D3.

603 to 762 jets. 33 to 42 squadrons, of which 171 jets(10 squadrons) would be obsolete aircraft. And these numbers are considering a replacement for losses of Su-30, Tejas, and Rafale and No losses for Mirages Fulcrums and Jaguars.

It is impossible for IAF to modernize and reach 42-45 squadrons it needs to spend less like a drunken sailor and spend carefully and GoI should also look towards increasing the CapEx as well as OpEx for all three branches.

 

[N4tsula67]

No idea what you're talking about.. I probably wouldn't know the answer to this.

I was talking about guided missile launcher in Tejas.

 

[Ar.gaurav28]

I was simply looking at how much we have to pay by 2035. We won't have 48 squadron as we will have to retire mirage Jaguar and mig29 by then.
( Only 37 Jaguar build in 2000-2008) might continue till 2040-45.

So by 2035 we might have
272 su30mki + 123 lca mk1a + 170-200 MWF + 108-144 Rafale. Total of 675 to 739 jets only.

Which equals to 37.5 to 41 squadron + 2 squadron of 37 Jaguar left. So total of either 39.5 or 43 squadron.

That is why number of MWF must touch 200 and rafale must be 144 for proper numbers.

Aren’t you missing AMCA??
739+120ish=859ish
6-7 squadrons of AMCA, aren’t you suppose to get it till 2035??
All that optimism wasted...2029 they are supposed to start production 2032 for mk2 version can’t we produce all of them 6 years??
if that’s the case cancel everything and fund amca only and buy more mk1a!
cos by that time even pak will be using fc31/azm!!

 

[Bleh]

I was talking about guided missile launcher in Tejas.

Oh, this I don't know.

 

[Lonewolf]

Aren’t you missing AMCA??
739+120ish=859ish
6-7 squadrons of AMCA, aren’t you suppose to get it till 2035??
All that optimism wasted...2029 they are supposed to start production 2032 for mk2 version can’t we produce all of them 6 years??
if that’s the case cancel everything and fund amca only and buy more mk1a!
cos by that time even pak will be using fc31/azm!!

. Really , fc 31 is basically developed for aircraft carrier , expensive , and will take atleast 10 year for export standard ,if they plan to export a non naval based fighter

 

[Ar.gaurav28]

. Really , fc 31 is basically developed for aircraft carrier , expensive , and will take atleast 10 year for export standard ,if they plan to export a non naval based fighter

The carrier/naval version is known as j35/fc35, can check at sinodefenceforum for more details.
ask yourself is jf17 export standard?? They(pak) are inducting them in bulk!!
they might be expensive but pak army will let their citizens die but will still purchase new weapons and platform!
&
forget them don’t you think that we should get AMCA by 2035 and whole 42 squadrons so that we can then focus on our navy and future drones with AI as that’s the future...

 

[Willy3]

Sheer brilliance by Kuntal.. Perfect work on the complicated landing-gears modifications from LCA to MWF! View attachment 91992View attachment 91993

Gripen E/F: who are you ?

Tejas Mk2 : I am you but better

Seriously... Swedish air force planning to keep Gripen E in service to 2060s, I bet Tejas Mk2 will become one of the prominent 5- jets continue to serve us till well beyond 2070s , unless some ground breaking technology developed to out class current jets, we can have budget get like Tejas Mk2 continue to protect our sky.

 

[IndianHawk]

Aren’t you missing AMCA??
739+120ish=859ish
6-7 squadrons of AMCA, aren’t you suppose to get it till 2035??
All that optimism wasted...2029 they are supposed to start production 2032 for mk2 version can’t we produce all of them 6 years??
if that’s the case cancel everything and fund amca only and buy more mk1a!
cos by that time even pak will be using fc31/azm!!

AMCA production might be streamlined by 2032 and we might get 2 squadron worth of jets by 2035.

I did forget about it as I was preoccupied with Rafale and mwf numbers. In which case squadron numbers will increase which is needed keeping in mind chinese expansion.

 

[IndianHawk]

The carrier/naval version is known as j35/fc35, can check at sinodefenceforum for more details.
ask yourself is jf17 export standard?? They(pak) are inducting them in bulk!!
they might be expensive but pak army will let their citizens die but will still purchase new weapons and platform!
&
forget them don’t you think that we should get AMCA by 2035 and whole 42 squadrons so that we can then focus on our navy and future drones with AI as that’s the future...

J31 doesn't have funding from pla. So if porkys want it they will have to fund it. And if it's going to be a decent jet than funding will be in tunes of multiple billions . Prokys don't have money.

 

[IndianHawk]

Gripen E/F: who are you ?

Tejas Mk2 : I am you but better

Seriously... Swedish air force planning to keep Gripen E in service to 2060s, I bet Tejas Mk2 will become one of the prominent 5- jets continue to serve us till well beyond 2070s , unless some ground breaking technology developed to out class current jets, we can have budget get like Tejas Mk2 continue to protect our sky.

All airforces will keep flying 4-4.5 gen jets till 2060 and beyond including usa.

 

[Willy3]

J31 doesn't have funding from pla. So if porkys want it they will have to fund it. And if it's going to be a decent jet than funding will be in tunes of multiple billions . Prokys don't have money.

Wait! Isn't J 31 supposed to me medium weight 5th generation fighter? Complementing it's heavier counterpart J 20.

Who going to fill the roll then?

 

[Lonewolf]

Wait! Isn't J 31 supposed to me medium weight 5th generation fighter? Complementing it's heavier counterpart J 20.

Who going to fill the roll then?

Not so soon ,they are more into making it for carrier operation

 

[IndianHawk]

Okay,

This is a really optimistic scenario and I do not think this will happen.
1. Rafales are too expensive and we cannot order any more of them anytime in the near future(2-3 years, factor in delivery times, and other shenanigans). Besides Dassault facility in France is totally booked right now for another 5-7 years. Orders are coming in from Croatia, possibly from Indonesia and more will come from Egypt. At most 18-36 more will be ordered and that's a big if and will most probably be delivered in the 2030s, by then would it really make sense to purchase such an expensive aircraft? I don't think so.

2. Metal cutting hasn't started for the Mk2 MWF so we cannot be sure about timelines now but probably it will have a much shorter development time than the OG Tejas. But it would still be ready for production at around 2030(Give or take 2 years or so).

Unless production is outsourced to some private vendor, do not expect HAL to crank out Tejas Mk2 MWF like pancakes because it will be in process of upgrading Su-30s which will consume a lot of its manpower and resources. So production figures unless not sourced to some other vendor would remain around 18 jets per year. All in all 5-7 squadrons by 2035 if things go as planned and IAF places firm orders as well.

3. Mirages and Mig-29s will serve at least till 2040. Why? because we cannot retire them and leave a massive capability gap in the air force. We still haven't retired Mig-21s despite it coming ridiculously old so the same will happen for Mirages and Fulcrums.

The final tally would something like this.

270 Su-30Mki(some 5 upgraded squadrons hopefully)
123 Tejas Mk1+Mk1A
90-126 Tejas Mk2 MWF
36(possible 54-72) Rafale
48 Mirages
87 Mig-29s
36 Jaguars D3.

603 to 762 jets. 33 to 42 squadrons, of which 171 jets(10 squadrons) would be obsolete aircraft. And these numbers are considering a replacement for losses of Su-30, Tejas, and Rafale and No losses for Mirages Fulcrums and Jaguars.

It is impossible for IAF to modernize and reach 42-45 squadrons it needs to spend less like a drunken sailor and spend carefully and GoI should also look towards increasing the CapEx as well as OpEx for all three branches.

About Rafale .
We have already build infra for 72 jets. So 72 is guaranteed.
We need Rafale on both fronts plus some reserved for nuclear strike role and attrition. So 100+ are required.
We wouldn't invest in india specific enhancement if we were to order just 36-54.
Iaf is hell bent for Rafale specially after cancelling fgfa . This is what they need against j20 when j20 matures in 7-10 years and untill we have AMCA operational in decent numbers. The money that was meant for fgfa can now flow to rafale procurement.
Yes Rafale are expensive but they are worth it and budget is there as I have previously explained .

On MWF.
Metal probably has started. Even if corona delayed it then delay is only few months.
We have already seen multiple tenders issued for MWF from jig assembly to fueslage to radar etc. Work is going on as planned.

HAL will only be lead integrator and most the work is planned to be outsourced already.
All preparation are for 24 jet per annum target.
MWF will be ready for production by 2026 not 2030.
As the prototypes will directly be production standard. And it will follow concurrent development model just as gripen ng.

HAL nasik line will handle su30 upgrade without disturbing Tejas or MWF production for which separate ecosystem is being developed with private parties.

21 mig 29 we are getting will serve till 2040 probably along with 37 Jaguar which are only 10-15 years old right now. Rest all will have to be retired they might have airframe life left but they won't find spares anymore in 2035 . Besides they will be pretty obsolete without aesa and modern weaponry.

Also MiG-21 retirement has been delayed due to delay in lca . MWF is much better planned and executed project with all components in place alredy. So chance of delay are almost nil.

 

[Ar.gaurav28]

AMCA production might be streamlined by 2032 and we might get 2 squadron worth of jets by 2035.

I was hoping you would say atleast 4 squadrons
2029-32 2squads(mk1) 2032-35 2squads..even with 2squads of amca & few squads of mig29(23 of which we are buying just now), mirages & jaguar will still get the score past 48 squads which will be good If possible!
another question on my mind as AMCA is costing same or less the same rafale why not have more AMCA??

I did forget about it as I was preoccupied with Rafale and mwf numbers. In which case squadron numbers will increase which is needed keeping in mind chinese expansion.

Agreed, and to keep China in its place we need AMCA asap!! they will be having 2 different 5th gen fighters in there airforce that too in huge no.

J31 doesn't have funding from pla. So if porkys want it they will have to fund it. And if it's going to be a decent jet than funding will be in tunes of multiple billions . Prokys don't have money.

Funds can come turkey after failed attempts of tfx or even the new player like iran they can fund with the oil they are supplying!
without investing anything pak can get it as usual!!

 

[IndianHawk]

Wait! Isn't J 31 supposed to me medium weight 5th generation fighter? Complementing it's heavier counterpart J 20.

Who going to fill the roll then?

That remains uncertain. Maybe pla will fund it in future when they have sufficient number of j20 in service. 5th gen is costly on both capex and opex.

 

[IndianHawk]

I was hoping you would say atleast 4 squadrons
2029-32 2squads(mk1) 2032-35 2squads..even with 2squads of amca & few squads of mig29(23 of which we are buying just now), mirages & jaguar will still get the score past 48 squads which will be good If possible!
another question on my mind as AMCA is costing same or less the same rafale why not have more AMCA??

Agreed, and to keep China in its place we need AMCA asap!! they will be having 2 different 5th gen fighters in there airforce that too in huge no.

Funds can come turkey after failed attempts of tfx or even the new player like iran they can fund with the oil they are supplying!
without investing anything pak can get it as usual!!

Well iaf and hal are planning to start production of AMCA from 2028 itself but it's a 5th gen plane with many many new technologies so delay might happen.
Also we have seen russia and china struggling with production rate of j20 and su57. It's not easy to ramp up 5th gen production on time as standards are very high.

AMCA will probably cost more than Rafale as standalone jet . ( Rafale 90 billion vs amca 150 million+). It will also need new base infrastructure and new maintenance system .

Things is you need fighter jets ready to fight in battle today . For which your jets must already be in proper squadrons training and developing tactics for a long time ( at least 3-4 years). Crew familiar and fast in maintainance. Spares available etc. You get the gist.

We might start getting AMCA by 2030 but it will only become a proper fighting system with proper internal weapons and ew capabilities and infrastructure after 2035.

Rafale is that fighter it's already developed and mature and battle proven. And it will steer the course till amca matures.

 

[kamaal]

Who told you that there's gonna be a 1:1 model (what does that mean anyway?) by end of 2021.

They were going to roll-out a fully functional prototype by August 2022. Add Covid delays and you'll get a few months delay to this timeline, but this thing is happening. ADA and HAL know fully well just how important it is to manage the timeline with the Mk2 program.

You can be skeptical, it's your choice, but without having ANY idea about just how complex this whole engineering program is, I would rather not see people rubbishing it out of sheer ignorance.

I was in your place in 2010, I know how you feel. When LSPs of LCA were rolling out we thought the day is not far when we'll have 200 LCAs at 24/annum. ADA and HAL along with IAF also knew how important how imp it was to maintain LCA timeline.

I am not skeptical, I am damn sure that behind that closed door the pseudo scientists of govt orgs are mostly busy in daily routine. The resources are limited, the testing facility has its own constraints, wind tunnel at ADA is still the legacy one, HAL's scientist are joke because they are hired through typical govt rule of non-merit system and on top of that leadership is based on seniority not talent.

Don't get me wrong here, I am optimistic about MK2 it's just that it won't come on time and as expected.

 

[Trololo]

Cross posting: https://defenceforumindia.com/threa...rmed-forces-ideas-news-and-discussions.82844/