Syria: Comment. Feedback directed NightWatch to a recent interview by retired US Major General Vallely with a senior leader of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The interview produced a number of interesting comments by the Syrian opposition leader.
The FSA controls only 60% of the fighters. Al Qaida fighters represent less than 1% of the fighters. The others are Salafists and various extremists and some moderates. A US TV news reporter from the Pentagon this week said the Defense Department has identified nine different Sunni opposition groups.
The FSA leader said his force numbers 100,000 fighters but lacks arms. He said most weapons enter Syria from Turkey and lots are lost. The opposition requires arms. He said the FSA knows how to control al Qaida and expected the Muslim Brotherhood would become the political leader of a post-Asad government because of it is so well organized.
The FSA leader said the Syrian government forces, essentially the Alawite defense forces, number 100,000 fighters.
Comment: The numbers are important because force ratios, firepower and logistics determine the winner. The side with the most and best guns always wins in a violent internal security problem.
The force ratios the FSA leader stated signify that the FSA cannot win, as those ratios now stand, even without taking into account Syrian government firepower. On the other hand, with only 100,000 soldiers, assuming the figure is roughly accurate, the Syrian government cannot cleanse every major town of Sunni fighters.
Thus the security situation is chronic, but not terminal for either side. For the government, the edge in Syrian government capabilities hinges on Russia. For the opposition, the supply line depends on Turkey. (The FSA leader probably should not have been so candid, assuming he was telling the truth.)
The FSA leader estimated that 50,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) soldiers are assisting the Syrian forces, without providing evidence.
Comment: It is credible that a significant number of IRGC are in Syria, just as it is certain that American special forces are assisting the Syrian opposition, but in smaller numbers. The number of IRGC soldiers is significant because the Syrian opposition cannot win if Iran has committed 50,000 IRGC troops to Syria. That would represent a large well-trained force.
Breaking apart the statements of the FSA leader, the FSA emerges as the most vocal of the opposition groups. It might be the largest, as it claims, but it is not the best armed. The numbers it claims to have mean that it stands no chance of overthrowing the Syrian government, as long as the Russians provide the supplies and Iran reinforces the Alawites. A one-to-one force ratio always favors the government, for obvious reasons.
The FSA leader was upbeat, but he failed to appreciate that his numbers undermined his optimism. No numbers are confirmed independently, of course. The only reason to credit some of his numbers is that the professional core of the Syrian Army was 140,000 two years ago, which included Sunni officers and soldiers. Considering defections by the Sunnis, a figure of 100,000 mainly Alawite and Baathist soldiers is credible. It also reinforces that the Alawite core remains loyal and responsive to central command and control.
There is no independent evidence that 50,000 IRGC are in Syria, but that number is well within Iranian capabilities, if the Tehran government has decided to defend Syria.
At the same time, the level of fighting in Syria in no way indicates there are 100,000 armed opposition fighters or that so many are under any chain of command or disciipline.
To put in perspective the significance of 100,000 fighters, in Iraq at the height of the insurgency, the Sunni fighters in Anbar Province had 100,000 fighters -- according to US reports about the number of monthly bribes paid to get them to stop fighting. They mounted and sustained 300 firefights and attacks a day against the 150,000 or so US armed forces almost indefinitely, until the money was paid.
The Syrian fighting is not close to that NightWatch benchmark, indicating there are far fewer opposition fighters than the FSA leader claimed.
NightWatch 20120807 - KGS
