TEDBF or ORCA Updates

[IndianHawk]

$5 Trillion by 2027 will be a bg thing too. Considering we are 3 trillion today. Budgets could double. But, I dont think Govt has that in mind. In the past, increased budgets have not been used by IAF effecively. The Sonia regime corrupted a lot of airforce requirements. Foreign buying became default. HAL became lazy. Indigenisation was systematically ignored.

Now, Modi govt has cracked the whip. IAF has to work in limited budgets. Seriously, did we expect 117 Rafales in a single shot? Someone wanted a huge commission.

G2G deal put paid to all plans.

Budget is only problem for imports. For domestic production budget is huge.

Here is our defense budget in
Nominal vs ppp
66 billion usd in nominal (1.5% of gdp)
240 billion pop $ (2% of gdp including pensions which are paid in rupees.)

 

[Flying Dagger]

Budget is only problem for imports. For domestic production budget is huge.

Here is our defense budget in
Nominal vs ppp
66 billion usd in nominal (1.5% of gdp)
240 billion pop $ (2% of gdp including pensions which are paid in rupees.)

Gov will be willing to release fund for domestic projects as it increase jobs keep the money inside economy and upgrade domestic manufacturing capabilities.

When it comes to import we need to consider our forex too. Domestic projects break the cycle of import so they will always be considered under project of National importance.

The only problem is we need learned defence minister with knowledge of products we need to make and procure.

Exactly . These refinement can only happen if you don't quit building. That is also why tedbf and orca are so important. They will bring optimization to our design / implementation and they will also de risk AMCA project in huge way.

Our numbers need to go way up. If we are serious about being a major power we need atleas 1000 combat jets. At least 50squadrons. We will need 400 stealth jets backed by 600 4.5 gen birds to be able to dominate our neighborhood.

49.5 was the required no. of squadron strength acc to old asr to deal with chinks and porks combined.

My only concern is to take down porks and destroy them forever, chinese will get the hint from there . Anyway I think once the current problem is resolved China will be target of west.

 

[IndianHawk]

Anyway I think once the current problem is resolved China will be target of west.

West is spineless. They won't fight china neither will they give up the Chinese market.

 

[IndianHawk]

49.5 was the required no. of squadron strength acc to old asr to deal with chinks and porks combined.

50 sq seems right . That's 1000 combat jets.


Looking at Chinese airforce which has 1200 combat jets out of which 300 something are 3rd gen bombers of the remaining 800-900 almost half are j7 and it's variants. Leaving with 400-500 modern 4th ,4.5 gen planes . But china will probably replace all older planes within this decade and by 2034 will field an all 4th-4.5 gen fleet with of 1000 jets including 100-200 j20.

We should Target the same numbers over long term we could achieve them 8-10 years behind china but that's not a problem. The issue is to continuously build Indian jets.

 

[aditya10r]

49.5 was the required no. of squadron strength acc to old asr to deal with chinks and porks combined.

Maybe more.

__________________________________

These numbers seem correct.After 1962 war it TATA commission said IAF should have 60-65 squadrons of combat aircrafts.

Definitely we cannot reach 40 in this decade 60 is a far off target.But this should be our long term goal.

_____________________________________

 

[IndianHawk]

50 sq seems right . That's 1000 combat jets.


Looking at Chinese airforce which has 1200 combat jets out of which 300 something are 3rd gen bombers of the remaining 800-900 almost half are j7 and it's variants. Leaving with 400-500 modern 4th ,4.5 gen planes . But china will probably replace all older planes within this decade and by 2034 will field an all 4th-4.5 gen fleet with of 1000 jets including 100-200 j20.

We should Target the same numbers over long term we could achieve them 8-10 years behind china but that's not a problem. The issue is to continuously build Indian jets.

My data on Chinese numbers is wrong. I was relying on old articles.

Now that I have checked it seems China has 1000 4th gen fighters already and another 500-600 3rd gen fighters.

Wiki says. J10 = 500+
Su30=76+su34=24=100
J11 346+ j16= 128 = 470+ = 1100 4th gen fighters.
Right now we have 450 4/4.5 gen against that
(260su30+ 116mig29/mirage + 40 lca + 36 rafale. )

And it seems Chinese will take their numbers to 2000 fighter by the end of this decade. All 4gen or higher.

So actually we will need 60 sq = 1200+ jets to maintain balance at the very least.

Looking at this it seems there is plenty of space for everything. For both rafale and orca .

Here is an estimate.
123 lca + 300 mwf + 72 rafale + 200 orca + 300 su30 + 200 AMCA by 2040 and then replace su30 with amca + next gen birds gradually.
== 1200 jets.
And if mwf retain at 250 and orca at100 then 100+ fgfa will also come.

 

[Steven Rogers]

My data on Chinese numbers is wrong. I was relying on old articles.

Now that I have checked it seems China has 1000 4th gen fighters already and another 500-600 3rd gen fighters.

Wiki says. J10 = 500+
Su30=76+su34=24=100
J11 346+ j16= 128 = 470+ = 1100 4th gen fighters.
Right now we have 450 4/4.5 gen against that
(260su30+ 116mig29/mirage + 40 lca + 36 rafale. )

And it seems Chinese will take their numbers to 2000 fighter by the end of this decade. All 4gen or higher.

So actually we will need 60 sq = 1200+ jets to maintain balance at the very least.

Looking at this it seems there is plenty of space for everything. For both rafale and orca .

Here is an estimate.
123 lca + 300 mwf + 72 rafale + 200 orca + 300 su30 + 200 AMCA by 2040 and then replace su30 with amca + next gen birds gradually.
== 1200 jets.
And if mwf retain at 250 and orca at100 then 100+ fgfa will also come.

Of all that china has deployed 175 jets against India and India has deployed around 270,and as per reports,indian jets are more advance in carrying out operations with payload.....

 

[IndianHawk]

Of all that china has deployed 175 jets against India and India has deployed around 270,and as per reports,indian jets are more advance in carrying out operations with payload.....View attachment 45250 View attachment 45251 View attachment 45252 View attachment 45253

That is correct for now as primary Chinese enemies are on east coast USA + Japan both Fielding hundred of very advanced f22 ,f35s ,f15 ,f2 etc.

But as China will build more j20/j31 and more j16 it will free up more j11 / j10 to be deployed against India. Chinese are in expansion mode we can't be sitting to let the gap grow much larger.

Even Russian maintain 1000+ combat jets despite their economy being much smaller than India. India can easily field 1200 jets if indigenous jets make the most of fleet. Lca and mwf will have to match j10 numbers while orca + rafale will have to match j16 numbers .

Chinese will soon start deploying jets on overseas bases in combodia / Laos and some African countries we will have to match then in these theatres too . We need massive airforce build up.

I think this is the reason behind orca even when mwf and rafale are coming up. We simply need way more numbers than previously predicted.

Good thing is that thanks to Russian / Chinese engine reliability/ availability of Chinese jets will be much lower than India . So we could probably field same numbers to battle even if we have 70-80% strength in a theatre against china.

 

[Steven Rogers]

That is correct for now as primary Chinese enemies are on east coast USA + Japan both Fielding hundred of very advanced f22 ,f35s ,f15 ,f2 etc.

But as China will build more j20/j31 and more j16 it will free up more j11 / j10 to be deployed against India. Chinese are in expansion mode we can't be sitting to let the gap grow much larger.

Even Russian maintain 1000+ combat jets despite their economy being much smaller than India. India can easily field 1200 jets if indigenous jets make the most of fleet. Lca and mwf will have to match j10 numbers while orca + rafale will have to match j16 numbers .

Chinese will soon start deploying jets on overseas bases in combodia / Laos and some African countries we will have to match then in these theatres too . We need massive airforce build up.

I think this is the reason behind orca even when mwf and rafale are coming up. We simply need way more numbers than previously predicted.

Good thing is that thanks to Russian / Chinese engine reliability/ availability of Chinese jets will be much lower than India . So we could probably field same numbers to battle even if we have 70-80% strength in a theatre against china.

For that they need enough air fields and bunkers......half of their fleet are kept in open against India....

 

[IndianHawk]

For that they need enough air fields and bunkers......half of their fleet are kept in open against India....

For now . I think it's deliberate. Both the less no. of jets against India and less airfelds. They want to keep there focus against USA japan and Taiwan. Against India they want to keep the theatre calm. They also don't want to provoke India into massive buildup which will become a headache for them down the road .

But it could all change within the matter of years.

Anyway our air strength should be driven by our own ambition. Investing in air power can actually save us from unnecessary wars by raising the cost of war too high. If Russian and today's china can maintain 1000+ combat jets India in 2030-40 can certainly maintain the same if not more.

 

[Steven Rogers]

For now . I think it's deliberate. Both the less no. of jets against India and less airfelds. They want to keep there focus against USA japan and Taiwan. Against India they want to keep the theatre calm. They also don't want to provoke India into massive buildup which will become a headache for them down the road .

But it could all change within the matter of years.

Anyway our air strength should be driven by our own ambition. Investing in air power can actually save us from unnecessary wars by raising the cost of war too high. If Russian and today's china can maintain 1000+ combat jets India in 2030-40 can certainly maintain the same if not more.

No it's not,after the 1962 war,India has reenforced what ever china has tried to put forward,today they are in no case to defend Tibet if they choose to fight india,if they prepare so,India will already be warned and equal no of reinforcement will be on the border from Indian side too,on air it will 24 ballastic missiles to take out a single indian air field for 24 hours,and if they do so,they will be out of stock within first few days. And then they have to use their stock which is meant for Russia,japan and USA....
Read this link
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide

 

[IndianHawk]

No it's not,after the 1962 war,India has reenforced what ever china has tried to put forward,today they are in no case to defend Tibet if they choose to fight india,if they prepare so,India will already be warned and equal no of reinforcement will be on the border from Indian side too,on air it will 24 ballastic missiles to take out a single indian air field for 24 hours,and if they do so,they will be out of stock within first few days. And then they have to use their stock which is meant for Russia,japan and USA....
Read this link
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide

I know that . Infact I posted that study on another forum to make the same point. China can't win today.

But in this thread we are looking at military buildup of next 10-15 years. When orca will enter service .

Point is there is plenty of room for orca in the IAF even if more rafale are bought .

 

[Steven Rogers]

I know that . Infact I posted that study on another forum to make the same point. China can't win today.

But in this thread we are looking at military buildup of next 10-15 years. When orca will enter service .

Point is there is plenty of room for orca in the IAF even if more rafale are bought .

Sorry I didn't got the context earlier...Anyways 10-15 years we will see reinforcement from our sides too and that will be heavier than the rate at today......

 

[Flying Dagger]

My data on Chinese numbers is wrong. I was relying on old articles.

Now that I have checked it seems China has 1000 4th gen fighters already and another 500-600 3rd gen fighters.

Wiki says. J10 = 500+
Su30=76+su34=24=100
J11 346+ j16= 128 = 470+ = 1100 4th gen fighters.
Right now we have 450 4/4.5 gen against that
(260su30+ 116mig29/mirage + 40 lca + 36 rafale. )

And it seems Chinese will take their numbers to 2000 fighter by the end of this decade. All 4gen or higher.

So actually we will need 60 sq = 1200+ jets to maintain balance at the very least.

Looking at this it seems there is plenty of space for everything. For both rafale and orca .

Here is an estimate.
123 lca + 300 mwf + 72 rafale + 200 orca + 300 su30 + 200 AMCA by 2040 and then replace su30 with amca + next gen birds gradually.
== 1200 jets.
And if mwf retain at 250 and orca at100 then 100+ fgfa will also come.

We don't have to match their number also drones will play major role along with huge arsenal of missiles and artilleries.

FGFA as in AMCA or Russian T-50 PakFA ?? I don't see a russian calling it will be taking a step backwards unless they offer something more.

We need to end the import cycle in short term Rafale will take care of porks along with Mirage Mig29 su 30 etc.

An orca will mean a twin engine jet with similar capabilities of a Rafale. With Israel on our side we can be assured it's not going to be anything less.

All Tejas lack is space and power which will be completely overcome with a 120kn dry thrust and 200 kn afterburner and increase in size with orca.

Even if we don't go for it AMCA in stripped version will be better than anything pak has to offer which will start rolling in by 2030.

While Tejas will free Su to concentrate on china. What we need is number in quick time.

 

[IndianHawk]

FGFA as in AMCA or Russian T-50 PakFA ?? I don't see a russian calling it will be taking a step backwards unless they offer something more.

Our original plan was to have both fgfa and amca. Now we will re-evaluate su57 when its ready with new engine by 2025-26. Depends on how many j20 Chinese field some su57 could be bought or of amca is delayed. But I hope amca comes in time and save us from fgfa/su57.

An orca will mean a twin engine jet with similar capabilities of a Rafale. With Israel on our side we can be assured it's not going to be anything less

Orca would be free of Israeli components mostly. We have everything in development in-house right now from aesa to sensor fusion to ew with maws/ digital rwr / high band jammer Siva pod and software defined radio even targeting pods.

With sfdr we will actually leapfrog Israel in air to air missile technology. Some small things may come for Israel but nothing major.

Orca may be fully Indian bar the engine and ejector seat.

Even if we don't go for it AMCA in stripped version will be better than anything pak has to offer which will start rolling in by 2030

Form what I am hearing even amca stripped version will be more stealthy than Chinese j20/j31.

 

[Kchontha]

Has India developed body conformal antenna for amca and radome for tejas indegeneously?

 

[fire starter]

Many defence enthusiasts and Experts thinks' ORCA(Is not even in papers) and TEDBF is a waste of money , and India should consider importing more Rafale for Airforce and a Naval Aircraft for under development INS Vikrant'. Some want India to procure stealth Aircrafts by avoiding 4th generation Aircraft.

But in our opinion India should go on with both TEDBF and ORCA . In future(within 10-15 years) we need huge quantities of fighter jets to counter Chinese and Pak Airforce and also to replace Su 30 MKI , Mirage ,Mig 29 and Jaguar.

Let's look at the current strength of Chinese Fighter Aircraft (4th and 5th).

Su 35 -24

Su 30 MKK- 76

Chengdu J10 - 500+

Shenyang J11-346

Shenyang J16- 128

Chengdu J20 - 20

Total- 1100 plus
--------------------------------------------------------

Pakistan Airforce :

Mirage - 180

F16- 76

JF 17- 107

Total -363+
----------------------------------------------
Indian Airforce:

Su 30 MKI -272

Mig 29 UPG- 66

HAL Tejas - 16 (16 More)

Rafale - 36 in order

Jaguar - 90

Total -450

----------------------------------------------------

Indian Airforce outnumbered in 3 to 1 if you add 3+ generation Aircraft in this then it is even worse for IAF.

Both China and Pakistan adding more and more 4th and 5th generation Aircraft's rapidly. in 2030-35 we can assume Chinese will have 1500 modern 4th and 5 th generation fighters . Pakistan will have 500 4th generation Aircraft's, fifth generation J31 from China may find a place in PAF.

To counter this grave threat India need atleast 1000 4th and 5th Aircraft's .

We will have AMCA as a 5+ generation Aircraft but the problem of this stealth aircrafts are its maintenance, the cost of maintenance is very high , and another major limitation of this stealth aircrafts is firepower . Stealth aircraft carrying missiles in its internal Weapon bay limits it's firepower.

For usual patrolling and reconnaissance we can't use stealth aircrafts reason is, high cost per sortie and frequent patrolling in border areas may reveal it's RCS figure's. For such missions we need aircrafts like ORCA with advanced sensors.

Another important thing is we can export these aircrafts and can earn money, strategic partnerships and crucial influence over friendly countries . Influence is one of the next generation Weapon which China already mastered and outperformed all other countries.

So in short it will be nice if we a develop a ORCA and TEDBF for our forces to replace old fighters of IAF, to get some revenue and to counter the extreme threat from China-Pak Nexus.

The lack of vision in Defence sector turned out into costly for India in the past it's the Time to act with vision.

 

[Flying Dagger]

Our original plan was to have both fgfa and amca. Now we will re-evaluate su57 when its ready with new engine by 2025-26. Depends on how many j20 Chinese field some su57 could be bought or of amca is delayed. But I hope amca comes in time and save us from fgfa/su57.



Orca would be free of Israeli components mostly. We have everything in development in-house right now from aesa to sensor fusion to ew with maws/ digital rwr / high band jammer Siva pod and software defined radio even targeting pods.

With sfdr we will actually leapfrog Israel in air to air missile technology. Some small things may come for Israel but nothing major.

Orca may be fully Indian bar the engine and ejector seat.


Form what I am hearing even amca stripped version will be more stealthy than Chinese j20/j31.

AMCA will start production in stripped version by 2030 which will be later upgraded. But may be orca will provide a buffer.

Su 57 is a dead idea if we have decided to fund Rafale and Orca. I love the jet.. beauty it is if we had fewer Su 30 we could have gone for it . But with 270 Su 30 we will be spending money to upgrade them first. And what you think will happen if we buy Su 57 ? China will get them too anyway.

Su 57 will come if AMCA is delayed Orca project dropped Rafale not procured onward. Now to get these 3 meal combo in line is a tough ask.

In a war there will be losses what we will need is numbers to flood the enemy airspace and neutralise it for us. Tejas can do that in western border on its own backed by a few su squadrons. Rest will be free for Chinks.

Israel is part of a lot of our projects . Those in Bangalore delhi working in aerospace sector do have some idea abt it. Regarding NextGen missile Israel is already working on it. There will be lot of things where we will need their help and nothing wrong with it . Ejector seat isn't a big deal and engine, we will have one in due course of time.

HAL went with the right approach with HTFE 25 kn I am sure later a 40-50 kn class engine will come up too and solve lots of our requirement and in next two decade we will have our own engine for AMCA .

 

[Bleh]

AMCA will start production in stripped version by 2030 which will be later upgraded. But may be orca will provide a buffer.

It can't... Practically India may only produce ORCA in time, by building on & beefing-up MWF design, after is completely finalised. So 2024-26. It will similar timeline as AMCA.
That is what mant "experts" are pointing out while calling ORCA useless/unfeasible, and they aint completely incorrect. Especially with LCA/MWF to take over all support roles from Mirages, Migs and Jags, leaving only top-end ops for the 5th Gen.

But they are overlooking the fact that Navy AMCA can't be ready before 2033, nor will they need a costly maintenance-hungry stealth fighter. Thus only TEDBF may see realisation, if India can contatin the import craving for few more years.

.

Corrected. (By 2023 before Mark1A delivery, MWF 1st.flt)

Mirage-2000 - 47

Su 30 MKI - 272-9 (+12)

Mig 29 UPG- 62 (+21)

HAL Tejas - 16+2 (+14)

Jaguar - 90

Rafale - (36 + ??)

MMRCA.2 - (???)

 

[Karthi]

In my opinion we should cancel 83 MK1A and Speed Up MWF . An export variant of MK1A Tej ex can develop for demonstration purposes. MWF is a better option than Mk 1A

And invest in ORCA and TEDBF set Rafale as bunch Mark , First prototype by 2027 Production in 2030 Similar like AMCA .