Sukhoi PAK FA

gadeshi

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This is bullshit.

1 - If you say that "some analyst" stated anything, you must name that analyst.
2 - Production base for N050 radar is in Fryazino (Moscow region) Istok facility which produces various TRMs about 30 years in enerprise scales and qualities (beginning from Zaslon for MiG-31 through N035 Irbis and ending with N050). And those TRMs are $70-75 a piece, which is impressively cheap.
3 - Composite panels will be produced in Kazan (KAPO-Composites), where a completely new giant facility has been built this year.

Don't mention those shit, it has no facts in the background.
 

p2prada

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It won't become an "either or" situation for India. Looking at the timelines, FGFA will happen when Rafale production will be nearing its end.

MKI production will have at least two years left before Rafale production starts. The same line may end up being used for FGFA. If we can afford building MKI, Rafale and LCA together when we are poorer than UK or France, then we can handle our lone FGFA program 10 years later when we will be 4 or 5 times bigger.

Even if the reports of the FGFA production cuts are real, it is still more than what both Rafale and LCA have been contracted for. There was a recent news report that the numbers are still undecided, so it could go higher or lower.
 

Defcon 1

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It won't become an "either or" situation for India. Looking at the timelines, FGFA will happen when Rafale production will be nearing its end.

MKI production will have at least two years left before Rafale production starts. The same line may end up being used for FGFA. If we can afford building MKI, Rafale and LCA together when we are poorer than UK or France, then we can handle our lone FGFA program 10 years later when we will be 4 or 5 times bigger.

Even if the reports of the FGFA production cuts are real, it is still more than what both Rafale and LCA have been contracted for. There was a recent news report that the numbers are still undecided, so it could go higher or lower.
You overestimate our potential size of our economy in 2022. Other than that, I agree with your post. Both Rafale and FGFA are going to happen and people should simply accept it.
 

p2prada

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You overestimate our potential size of our economy in 2022. Other than that, I agree with your post. Both Rafale and FGFA are going to happen and people should simply accept it.
I included the appreciation of the rupee against the USD as well, not just real growth, since dollar will be involved in a JV.
 

Defcon 1

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I included the appreciation of the rupee against the USD as well, not just real growth, since dollar will be involved in a JV.
well any appreciation is not expected since the inflation rate of Rupee has traditionally been higher than dollar. Currently the equilibrium value of rupee is close to 60 which will only come down further down in the future. So actually this will act in the opposite direction. Another reason we need to cut back on imports.
 

p2prada

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well any appreciation is not expected since the inflation rate of Rupee has traditionally been higher than dollar. Currently the equilibrium value of rupee is close to 60 which will only come down further down in the future. So actually this will act in the opposite direction. Another reason we need to cut back on imports.
Not if investment in the country increases by many times during the next decade, which has been growing faster than the economy. Anyway, the point I was making is that our economy will be much larger when we are handling one program when we are capable of handling three major programs right now with a smaller economy.
 

Defcon 1

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Not if investment in the country increases by many times during the next decade, which has been growing faster than the economy. Anyway, the point I was making is that our economy will be much larger when we are handling one program when we are capable of handling three major programs right now with a smaller economy.
That is pure speculation at this point of time. With US economy recovering and EU getting out of crisis, not to mention Japan going for reflation, incentives for the investors to come to india are low. Not to mention that we are expected to run a CAD in near to medium term to incapability to curb down petro imports, a bulk of investments will use to finance CAD, latest data available showed net inflows to CAD ratio was mere 100.7 percent, i.e. current inflows are just enough to finance our imports.

Even the size of the economy won't be larger significantly. Compounding a 7.5 growth in terms of real GDP for 9 years, we find that our economy will only be 1.91 times the current size in 2022. But yes, a fifth gen project will be easier to handle than today.
 

ersakthivel

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It won't become an "either or" situation for India. Looking at the timelines, FGFA will happen when Rafale production will be nearing its end.

MKI production will have at least two years left before Rafale production starts. The same line may end up being used for FGFA. If we can afford building MKI, Rafale and LCA together when we are poorer than UK or France, then we can handle our lone FGFA program 10 years later when we will be 4 or 5 times bigger.

Even if the reports of the FGFA production cuts are real, it is still more than what both Rafale and LCA have been contracted for. There was a recent news report that the numbers are still undecided, so it could go higher or lower.
If the clean config RCS of FGFA is between 0.3 to 0.5 meters as per various open source articles there is no point in going for higher number of FGFA fighters because

1. J-20 and J-31 by simply aping the US designs will have lesser RCS than the FGFA

2. With stealth compliant external weapon bays even RAFALE and TEJAS mk-2 can have the same RCS with ASEA radars as well.

With the absence of two seater version demanded by IAF there is no incentive for IAF to increase its order size with the availability of long range cruise missiles and stealth 5th gen UCAVs there is simply no p[lace for more numbers of FGFA in IAF.

Also since HAL is going to do most of the sensor fusion and avionics in India there is nothing significant that comes to India in FGFA program other than a bare air frame and an engine with below par RCS due to exposed fan blades and radar blocker solution.

Even in composites it is India which leads not russia.

IAF can better use the money it saves in ordering more UCAVs and AMCA numbers.

All this may change if Sukholi tweak their design to achieve the near identical RCS of F-22, but by all accounts it is not happening.

Russians are simply viewing FGFA as just another export product and not an equivalent of F-22 , thats where the problems arise for IAF.

With technologies like hypersonic cruise missiles and stealth UCAVS available IAF will be hard pressed to justify a 0.3 to 0.5 meter RCS plane that can be easily detected by next gen ASEA radars at long range BVR missile ranges for a 30 billion dollar budget with no tech transfers in the avionics ,radars or composites and sensor suite and with a very limited strike capability as well.

Doing cobras in front of tomorrows air to air missiles that will be far more agile is going to be of no use. the platform should deliver an f-22 like frontal RCS in case it wants to be inducted in 200 plus numbers in IAf fleet, if you have any doubts please read up why IAf sought close to 100 percent stealth from 94 percent stealth design being offered for AMCA by ADA.

So availability of production line alone wont mean we are going to funnel down 30 billion dollar into a bottom less pit.
 
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ersakthivel

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That is pure speculation at this point of time. With US economy recovering and EU getting out of crisis, not to mention Japan going for reflation, incentives for the investors to come to india are low. Not to mention that we are expected to run a CAD in near to medium term to incapability to curb down petro imports, a bulk of investments will use to finance CAD, latest data available showed net inflows to CAD ratio was mere 100.7 percent, i.e. current inflows are just enough to finance our imports.

Even the size of the economy won't be larger significantly. Compounding a 7.5 growth in terms of real GDP for 9 years, we find that our economy will only be 1.91 times the current size in 2022. But yes, a fifth gen project will be easier to handle than today.
Most of India's CAD problems are arising out of the stupid UPA govt policy of running massive deficit with China which baffles any strategic expert .

If a govt with spine assumes office in next elections it can easily curb this. For example india's trade deficit with China was around a billion or two. Now it is close to 40 billions or so.

The UPA allowed even boiler equipments for power projects to be imported from china citing a cheaper rate. Now with looming forex crisis and spiraling own rupee we can all see how any cost savings would have evaporated by now.

There are always incentives for foreign investors to come here and they will come because for another market the size of india thay have to go beyond Mars.

it is the stupid trade policies followed by UPA which has comeback to bite, if a new govt corrects this then there will be no dearth of investors confidence either.

So if remedial measures are taken ,"net inflows to CAD ratio was mere 100.7 percent" this will reverse itself

A case in point is the reopening of the Micromax mobile manufacturing unit in india a few months back.

Due to the stupid policy of levying just 7 percent duty on crap chinese handsets micromax 's indian manufacturing unit became unviable. Now after a slight duty hike from the govt and depreciating rupee the unit has gone on stream.

So reversing this net inflows to CAD ratio of 100.7 percent is not a herculean task either.

the depreciating currency alone solves most of the CAD problems and if govt takes more steps by giving concrete incentives for big FAB units then it can easily reverse this ratio.

So the size of Indian economy has nothing to do with any 5th gen fighter production.
 
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p2prada

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Da hell? Which sources say that?! You've gotta be $hitting me... it can't possibly be that bad.
RCS changes based on different conditions, especially range. The best I can say is that the Russians calculate it differently compared to the Americans.

Pogosyan placed PAKFA in the 0.5m2 range while comparing to the F-22's "0.3m2."

The Americans take RCS figures from distances of 150 Km, and that's for the F-16 with 1m2 RCS. The Russians, probably different.

We don't know how we should take Sukhoi's figure of 0.3m2 for the Su-47 either. All we can say about Su-47 is that it is probably in the Rafale or EF level, but with internal bays while PAKFA is bound to be better.

There was also news that PAKFA is 40 times more stealthy than the Su-35S and Su-35S is anywhere as high as the F-16 and as low as Rafale/EF, but we don't know for sure.
 

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