How do you preempt a move by an adversary if you don't know their capability?
Do we know for sure if they have 101 nukes or 102 nukes or 231 nukes? even one nuke we forget to count can land up on our shores.
First let me clarify I am not trying to prove you are wrong or your opinion is wrong.
I am just pitching my views and nothing more. In real world my opinions will matter jack shit .
You raised the issue of no of nukes held by porkies.
I hope you realise the inherent ambiguity associated with respect to the claim " this no of nukes are held by porkistan "
AFAIK whoever ( eg. Intel agencies ) makes the claim that " this no of nukes are avalable with the porkies " based on best of their capabilities via HUMIT and technical sources etc will be beset by the problem of
1. Information reliability
2. Source reliability
3. Assessment reliability
to varying levels
and to make things worse all three are interdependent , bungle up one the others too will get bungled
End result will be, the analysts incharge of determining the no of nukes will have to settle for a best case scenario and a worse case scenario and come up with a probability figure for the same.
Still a far ask from your question regarding the actual no of nukes held by the porkies.
And even then the ambiguity factor associated with the assessment of the no of nukes held by porkies will be high enough that it be a
total risk based assessment.
Now in that case counter response to the no of nukes targeting us will be a number ( of nukes ) which can cater for both the best and the worse case scenario.
And additionally any prudent decision maker ( if we have any ) will add in a significant margin to the numbers agreed on to factor in any last minute surprises ( as nuclear conflict is a do or die situation with no retake option)
Let me end with this quip
The world is not full of surprises , it is full of probabilities. Think about it