Russia Ukraine War 2022

[ww2historian]

Of course Odessa is right now, not commercially useful for Ukraine because of the Russian blockade.. But, if the war ends in a stalemate, and peace is established.. Ukraine keeps Odessa, and with it, will have a functioning economy.. Without Odessa, Ukraine has no economic future..

That is just one more great reason why Russia won't end this war. The other two reasons is a cease fire will allow Ukraine to rearm, and Ukraine will join NATO. This isn't me talking, the US and all of Europe guaranteed Ukraine will join NATO. Russia can without a doubt let this war go on for another ten years. Can Ukraine and Odessa last that long? The problem is a stalemate is a win for Russia, because even US generals have said the longer this goes on the more it favors Russia. I don't like the word stalemate because it implies a forced draw in chess. This is not anything like that. Russia has a winning advantage, probably even a forced win, but both sides can fuck up and blunder just like in chess. It's been said in chess forced wins are blown all the time. Russia understands this. That's why they are taking it slow, and building on their advantage. Patience is the key to victory. Forcing something could be very bad for Russia.

 

[Blademaster]

That is just one more great reason why Russia won't end this war. The other two reasons is a cease fire will allow Ukraine to rearm, and Ukraine will join NATO. This isn't me talking, the US and all of Europe guaranteed Ukraine will join NATO. Russia can without a doubt let this war go on for another ten years. Can Ukraine and Odessa last that long? The problem is a stalemate is a win for Russia, because even US generals have said the longer this goes on the more it favors Russia. I don't like the word stalemate because it implies a forced draw in chess. This is not anything like that. Russia has a winning advantage, probably even a forced win, but both sides can fuck up and blunder just like in chess. It's been said in chess forced wins are blown all the time. Russia understands this. That's why they are taking it slow, and building on their advantage. Patience is the key to victory. Forcing something could be very bad for Russia.

The Russians have recognized this as a war of attrition which is something that Russians have the resources and can win.

 

[KurtisBrian]

If Russia plans a move on Odessa, NATO weapon shipments to Ukraine will increase.. NATO cannot afford to lose Odessa..
Transinitria is more vulnerable to Ukranian invasion, than it being a real threat to Ukraine.. Transitria might have mattered if Russia had captured Mykolaiv in March 2022, when it could have played a role to cut off Odessa.. Now, with all Surprise gone.. Russia losing Transitria is more probable than Ukraine losing Odessa..

Ukraine retakes village of Andriivka near Bakhmut, military says

US President Joe Biden will host President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House next Thursday.

edition.cnn.com

says Ukraine has retaken the village of Andriivka. article includes this statement ...

 

[ww2historian]

Ukraine retakes village of Andriivka near Bakhmut, military says

US President Joe Biden will host President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House next Thursday.

edition.cnn.com

says Ukraine has retaken the village of Andriivka. article includes this statement ...

View attachment 222575

I think this is all bullshit. https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1702745765540495757?s=20

 

[blackjack]

Got this from russiadefence.net.

Today at 1:41 pm
by franco
Again mostly Ukrainian sources but units of the 25th Combined Arms Army are reportedly entering the SVO:
- 164th Motor Rifle brigade
- 36th Motor Rifle regiment of the 67th Motor Rifle Division
- another regiment is identified as the 31st Motor Rifle regiment

the combined arms army was formed when the call for partial mobilization happened last September, so basically 100s of 1000s Russian troops trained outside the operation zone of Ukraine. If its true I hope Ukraine is not too exhausted right now.

 

[Dharmapalas]

Chechen strong man Kadyrov allegedly in critical condition.

I wonder if they have a person to take over in case he dies, or are his people going to fight it out for control.

 

[Dharmapalas]

Airborne Forces of Russia hit a Ukrainian tank with strikes from the Lancet kamikaze UAV in the Kherson direction


Destruction of the Russian T-62M tank in the Zaporozhye region

 

[Master Chief]

I think this is all bullshit. https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1702745765540495757?s=20

Many sources ..even Suriyak saying Russian Arny has retreated from Andriivka, but Ukraine Army us unable to deploy in the small village because of Russian bombardment.. Anyway Klishchiivka just to the south of Bakhmut is much more important and Russia is fighting hard to keep a foothold in it..

 

[blackjack]

 

[blackjack]

The US Army War College just published a new paper on key lessons from the Ukraine War. There are plenty of users here that like to reference the Iraq and Afghanistan war as some grandiose achievement as superiority over Russia's operation in Ukraine in terms of comparison. Lets see what the US Army War College has said. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3240&context=parameters I will bold the important parts.

Command and Control Twenty years of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations in the Middle East, largely enabled by air, signals, and electromagnetic dominance, generated chains of command reliant on perfect, uncontested communication lines and an extraordinary and accurate common operating picture of the battlefield broadcast in real time to co-located staff in large Joint Operations Centers. The Russia-Ukraine War makes it clear that the electromagnetic signature emitted from the command posts of the past 20 years cannot survive against the pace and precision of an adversary who possesses sensor-based technologies, electronic warfare, and unmanned aerial systems or has access to satellite imagery; this includes nearly every state or nonstate actor the United States might find itself fighting in the near future. The Army must focus on developing command-and-control systems and mobile command posts that enable continuous movement, allow distributed collaboration, and synchronize across all warfighting functions to minimize electronic signature. Ukrainian battalion command posts reportedly consist of seven soldiers who dig in and jump twice daily; while that standard will be hard for the US Army to achieve, it points in a very different direction than the one we have been following for two decades of hardened command posts.

Casualties, Replacements, and Reconstitutions The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties.11 Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries.12 With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.1

In addition to the disciplined disobedience required to execute effective mission command, the US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall, nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic mobilization asset we will not have in 2031.14 The Individual Ready Reserve, which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000.15 These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation. The implication is that the 1970s concept of an all-volunteer force has outlived its shelf life and does not align with the current operating environment. The technological revolution described below suggests this force has reached obsolescence. Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.1

Another important detail is the will to fight, If a NATO army was to get involved how many would want to fight a war where the mortality rate chance far succeeds any operation that was conducted in the middle east? I know I didnt add the opinions of airforce or Navy(I know there is means of dealing with those branches as well based on what they have not used yet in this war) but this is the assessment they gave as their lessons from the war.

 

[Super Flanker]

"Fascist Indians are sponsoring Russia's illegal war against Peaceful innocent Ukraine! India is buying gas and fuel from Russia and funding Russia's illegal Invasion, India must be sanctioned as soon as possible!"

 

[Super Flanker]

I think if a conventional war breaks out between NATO and Russia then NATO will win hands down due to NATO's sheer numerical superiority.

NATO clearly has the upper hand against Russia in every field. NATO has a larger Airforce, Navy, and Army than Russia, also NATO has much more advanced weopons in comparison to Russia. E.g, See the F-35, today we have more than 900 F-35 serving various countries around the globe, the US alone has over 500 F-35s. How many Su-57s does Russia have? Not even a dozen. Russia's navy is not even very modern, the only Aircraft Carrier they have is Admiral Kuznetsov which is mirred with so many issues. NATO's Navy is again far superior. I think Russia might have a more advanced and superior Army and missile force in comparison to NATO but I think NATO army will still defeat Russian Army ofcourse with heavy casualties.

But a war breaking out between Russia and NATO is a bit unlikely and both parties know the devastating consequences of such a fiasco.

As long as Russia has these

"NUKES"

Even West has nukes though. A war between NATO and Russia is unlikely as the war may result in one of the parties going all hail Mary with nukes and we don't want nukes coming into the picture because we all know what a nuclear fallout would do to the world. We better pray that Putin or Western leaders aren't stupid enough to use nukes against each other because if one of them does, we all will disappear from the face of the earth.

Russia has given many nuclear threats throughout history though.

 

[kittoo420]

I think if a conventional war breaks out between NATO and Russia then NATO will win hands down due to NATO's sheer numerical superiority.

NATO clearly has the upper hand against Russia in every field. NATO has a larger Airforce, Navy, and Army than Russia, also NATO has much more advanced weopons in comparison to Russia. E.g, See the F-35, today we have more than 900 F-35 serving various countries around the globe, the US alone has over 500 F-35s. How many Su-57s does Russia have? Not even a dozen. Russia's navy is not even very modern, the only Aircraft Carrier they have is Admiral Kuznetsov which is mirred with so many issues. NATO's Navy is again far superior. I think Russia might have a more advanced and superior Army and missile force in comparison to NATO but I think NATO army will still defeat Russian Army ofcourse with heavy casualties.

But a war breaking out between Russia and NATO is a bit unlikely and both parties know the devastating consequences of such a fiasco.

As long as Russia has these
View attachment 222615View attachment 222616

"NUKES"

Even West has nukes though. A war between NATO and Russia is unlikely as the war may result in one of the parties going all hail Mary with nukes and we don't want nukes coming into the picture because we all know what a nuclear fallout would do to the world. We better pray that Putin or Western leaders aren't stupid enough to use nukes against each other because if one of them does, we all will disappear from the face of the earth.

Russia has given many nuclear threats throughout history though.
View attachment 222619

War is about numbers and sheer power for sure (where NATO has a huge upper hand), but it's also just as much about will to fight and appetite to sacrifice. I don't think NATO has that at all. Sure they will win an all out conventional war (without nukes), but are they willing to lose 100s of thousands, maybe more than a million, of their men? Not at all. Maybe some tiny eastern European nations have some appetite for bodybags, but Noone else.

Edit- and then there is a factor of other countries being involved. Add in China, North Korea, Iran, Belarus, Syria and the picture becomes much glimmer doesn't it? What if China attacks Taiwan when NATO is fully occupied? What if North Korea goes apeshit? What if Russia provides Iran with nuke tech? As we can see, numbers are just one of the benchmarks of war.

 

[blackjack]

I think if a conventional war breaks out between NATO and Russia then NATO will win hands down due to NATO's sheer numerical superiority.

NATO clearly has the upper hand against Russia in every field. NATO has a larger Airforce, Navy, and Army than Russia, also NATO has much more advanced weopons in comparison to Russia. E.g, See the F-35, today we have more than 900 F-35 serving various countries around the globe, the US alone has over 500 F-35s. How many Su-57s does Russia have? Not even a dozen. Russia's navy is not even very modern, the only Aircraft Carrier they have is Admiral Kuznetsov which is mirred with so many issues. NATO's Navy is again far superior. I think Russia might have a more advanced and superior Army and missile force in comparison to NATO but I think NATO army will still defeat Russian Army ofcourse with heavy casualties.

But a war breaking out between Russia and NATO is a bit unlikely and both parties know the devastating consequences of such a fiasco.

As long as Russia has these
View attachment 222615View attachment 222616

"NUKES"

Even West has nukes though. A war between NATO and Russia is unlikely as the war may result in one of the parties going all hail Mary with nukes and we don't want nukes coming into the picture because we all know what a nuclear fallout would do to the world. We better pray that Putin or Western leaders aren't stupid enough to use nukes against each other because if one of them does, we all will disappear from the face of the earth.

Russia has given many nuclear threats throughout history though.
View attachment 222619

because of satellites and underwater SONAR arrays powered by nuclear reactors that can get placed any where underwater at sea and 5 years ago the U.S. and Russia have been using cruise missiles or scramjets with just GPS guidance to hit mobile naval vessels. Depending how many Zircons are fielded on submarines all ships will be annihilated in a 1000km radius of one of those submarines. Based on range capabilities of torpedoes I have seen from Russia that will be a problem as well for NATO submarines

F-35s are known for crashing and S-200 from Syria downed an israeli F-16I with EW capabilities and for the entire war supposedly 1 S-400 launcher got destroyed and this is nothing compared to the S-400, S-350, soon to be S-500, S-550, S-300 variations and all the other short and medium range air defenses they have(along with PIC production starting next year for photonic radars). I think the long range SAM's are nonexistent in this war since I don't hear reports of them intercepting anything in the war as being used other than some possibly in Crimea and other regions in Russia. F-35s landing refueling and restocking on ammo will get whacked with hypersonic missiles in their air bases depending how seriously they want to take the war with NATO compared to Ukraine

With NATO aircraft and navy out of the way it will commence back to land warfare assuming no one wanted to use nukes by than. In other words, against a near pear rival, the US Army and those trained to NATO standard are FUCKED as Russia is not a third world hell scape with an economy long withered by sanctions, Russia has a professional army and not an army of illiterate and undereducated conscripts.

I pretty much made articles suggesting the possibility of what Russia has and what they can do with what they have. to summarize those articles there are no NATO air defenses that can deal with scramjets let alone the kinzhals that destroyed patriot SAMs in Ujraine that can hit airbases hosting F-35s or Naval air defenses against scramjets. Try to imagine an aircraft carrier carrying 100 F-35s heading to Europe getting sunk by one million dollar scramjet missile from 1000kms away fired underwater.

 

[ww2historian]

Many sources ..even Suriyak saying Russian Arny has retreated from Andriivka, but Ukraine Army us unable to deploy in the small village because of Russian bombardment.. Anyway Klishchiivka just to the south of Bakhmut is much more important and Russia is fighting hard to keep a foothold in it..

My interpretation after watching the MS channel is Andriivka is a kill zone trap. The Russians are using under ground tunnels to counter attack. What can be the point of taking all this losses? To show another worthless picture on social media of the Ukrainian flag? The rainy season is coming and if they are having this much trouble taking Andriivka, what are the chances of taking Bakhmut?

 

[ww2historian]

War is about numbers and sheer power for sure (where NATO has a huge upper hand), but it's also just as much about will to fight and appetite to sacrifice. I don't think NATO has that at all. Sure they will win an all out conventional war (without nukes), but are they willing to lose 100s of thousands, maybe more than a million, of their men? Not at all. Maybe some tiny eastern European nations have some appetite for bodybags, but Noone else.

Edit- and then there is a factor of other countries being involved. Add in China, North Korea, Iran, Belarus, Syria and the picture becomes much glimmer doesn't it? What if China attacks Taiwan when NATO is fully occupied? What if North Korea goes apeshit? What if Russia provides Iran with nuke tech? As we can see, numbers are just one of the benchmarks of war.

If China attacked Taiwan the world's economy would go into another great depression. China will only attack Taiwan if the US decides to escalate it by sending huge amounts of weapons. If we just leave that situation alone and mind our own business for once, the chance of China invading Taiwan is zero. I don't understand why people can't understand that.

 

[Corvus Splendens]

 

[ww2historian]

Necessity is the mother of invention. This is just another reason why US sanctions are worthless. Just more proof why Putin doesn't give a shit about the sanctions. They don't need the west and neither does China.
Did Huawei defy US Sanctions with its Mate 60 Pro?
With a locally made chip, Huawei is making a comeback, without blatant marketing, into the 5G smartphone race.

Is the Huawei Mate 60 Pro proof that US sanctions have failed?

Huawei claims its Mate 60 Pro is the "most powerful Mate model ever," without mentioning its CPU or the handset's 5G connectivity.

techhq.com

 

[ww2historian]

The US leaders need to wake up. China and Russia are not the enemy. The US is being destroyed from within. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-quantum-technology/

 

[Akim]

Who talked about 7% of Russian power?