Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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GaudaNaresh

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The 2000 number is from Oryx.. and I have followed him since the beginning of the war.. Although, pro Ukranian and has not much enthusiasm to update Ukranian losses..
On following his list closely for a few days, I was able to track the Russian tank losses he added to the list.. Now, of course some of the tanks listed as damaged might have been recovered by Russia..But, it does look like Russian tank losses [considering the fact that Russia is the side that has been more consistently on the offensive, and the attacking side is more prone to equipment losses] are more than Ukraine and are close to 2000.
Oryx = western propaganda.
It is not a neutral source, it does not have independent third party verification of its claims.
 

Master Chief

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Oryx = western propaganda.
It is not a neutral source, it does not have independent third party verification of its claims.
They are all video backed claims.. although not audited from any third party
Russia has had probably the largest pre war stocks of tanks.. The fact that its mostly Russian infantry led slow grind in the past 6 months [with annexed mother Russian territory of 4 provinces still under Ukranian occupation ( sarcasm :) ) ], tells you that Russian tank losses have been severe..

There have been zero Russian armoured offensives for a long time now..
 

GaudaNaresh

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They are all video backed claims.. although not audited from any third party
Russia has had probably the largest pre war stocks of tanks.. The fact that its mostly Russian infantry led slow grind in the past 6 months [with annexed mother Russian territory of 4 provinces still under Ukranian occupation ( sarcasm :) ) ], tells you that Russian tank losses have been severe..

There have been zero Russian armoured offensives for a long time now..
What is severe ? 400 is severe. 500 is severe. 1000 is severe, 5000 is severe. Severity is dependent on what % of committed forces are destroyed/disabled, along with overshooting ' expected' losses by a significant margin.
Regardless, video evidence is of zero relevance if its not independently verified by a third party.
Especially given the grainy quality of most of those oryx videos.
bottomline is, Oryx is a western source and is about as credible as a Kremlin source.
 

Master Chief

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What is severe ? 400 is severe. 500 is severe. 1000 is severe, 5000 is severe. Severity is dependent on what % of committed forces are destroyed/disabled, along with overshooting ' expected' losses by a significant margin.
Regardless, video evidence is of zero relevance if its not independently verified by a third party.
Especially given the grainy quality of most of those oryx videos.
bottomline is, Oryx is a western source and is about as credible as a Kremlin source.
I would say Russian tank losses were severe only for the period of the first year of war. It's not something that would cripple Russian Army capability for a longer period in time..Russian Navy and air force have barely suffered a scratch..

Meanwhile, in the past 1 year, Russia has turned into a partial war economy, and has reconfigured supply chains of certain dual use components (many from China) which would have somewhat stabilized by now..
So, Russia is producing a lot more tanks now [both new and refurbished] and I expect new large scale Russian armoured offensives in the future..
 

Ylside

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Total : 137 billion. This puts Ukraine in 3rd spot for military expenditures by a comfortable margin. So i may've been wrong about nearly half a trillion ( which is the figure if one includes the humanitarian assistance, including settlement & support of ukrainian refugees but is not relevant to war itself) but i was correct in saying that Ukraine's actual military budget for this conflict is significantly higher than Russia's.
Those 137 billions include all support to the Ukrainian government, actual military expenditures are much smaller.

However, I am more interested in the other side of the equation. Which accounting method did you use to calculate Russian resources committed to the war in the Ukraine? :cool3: For example, Russian air force. What price tag did you put on all airplanes and helicopters participating in the war in the Ukraine?
 

GaudaNaresh

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Those 137 billions include all support to the Ukrainian government, actual military expenditures are much smaller.

However, I am more interested in the other side of the equation. Which accounting method did you use to calculate Russian resources committed to the war in the Ukraine? :cool3: For example, Russian air force. What price tag did you put on all airplanes and helicopters participating in the war in the Ukraine?
Almost all support outside of strictly humanitarian support IS military support, you numpty. Money given to pay soldiers is also military support. Money given to hire mercs, is also military support.
So stuff your western propaganda numbers where the sun doesn't shine.

Since Russia has deployed less than 5% of its air force for Ukronazi denazification, i think its fairly easy to calculate its ' dollar value', given the sticker price of the rooskie equipment.
 

vishnugupt

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They are all video backed claims.. although not audited from any third party
Russia has had probably the largest pre war stocks of tanks.. The fact that its mostly Russian infantry led slow grind in the past 6 months [with annexed mother Russian territory of 4 provinces still under Ukranian occupation ( sarcasm :) ) ], tells you that Russian tank losses have been severe..

There have been zero Russian armoured offensives for a long time now..
Many lost tanks pics are taken in different seasons and different angles.

Many vehicles are Ukrainian where they just paint Z on it and did photo ops. Look at colour scheme which is Ukrainian.

This issue has already been brought up last year about how Ukrainian are exaggerating Russia loss.

Russian losses around 1000-1200 heavy vehicles while Ukrainian losses are more than 3000 (Whole armoured)
 

vishnugupt

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I would say Russian tank losses were severe only for the period of the first year of war. It's not something that would cripple Russian Army capability for a longer period in time..Russian Navy and air force have barely suffered a scratch..

Meanwhile, in the past 1 year, Russia has turned into a partial war economy, and has reconfigured supply chains of certain dual use components (many from China) which would have somewhat stabilized by now..
So, Russia is producing a lot more tanks now [both new and refurbished] and I expect new large scale Russian armoured offensives in the future..
Russia will not do any offensive. They just want to keep front small and continuously bleed the West. Remember America says they do not support Ukraine attacking Russian mainland.

Russian Know well it Ukraine which desperate to show the their masters something on ground Hence need to do relentless counter offensives.

Russia just need to lie down in waiting because Ukrainian has no other place to fight except crawling in front of Russians in Danbas.

Russian will do offensive only when Ukrainian AD is annihilated.
 

Lonewarrior

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Usually it happens in a war that a country claims of winning but large number of people points out that no, they're not winning.

This would be the first war where the actual country itself is showing all the signs of losing but a large number of people are claiming that no, they are winning.

It'd be so much fun to look at some (most) of the posts on this thread after few months. I'm so glad there's a bookmark option here on DFI
 

kittoo420

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Russia will not do any offensive. They just want to keep front small and continuously bleed the West. Remember America says they do not support Ukraine attacking Russian mainland.

Russian Know well it Ukraine which desperate to show the their masters something on ground Hence need to do relentless counter offensives.

Russia just need to lie down in waiting because Ukrainian has no other place to fight except crawling in front of Russians in Danbas.

Russian will do offensive only when Ukrainian AD is annihilated.
But will the west let Ukranian AD go completely kaput? They keep saying they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.
 

Doggerland

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I need to find sources about the Russo-Ukrainian war outside of Europe because only one narrative is allowed, even here in little Denmark. One of my favorite mappers is "Defense policy Asia" some guy from Singapore who is reasonably neutral even though 70% of his audience is pro Russian. In my 50 years I have never seen such one-sided coverage and I find it frightening that people just buy into it.
 

DumbPilot

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I need to find sources about the Russo-Ukrainian war outside of Europe because only one narrative is allowed, even here in little Denmark. One of my favorite mappers is "Defense policy Asia" some guy from Singapore who is reasonably neutral even though 70% of his audience is pro Russian. In my 50 years I have never seen such one-sided coverage and I find it frightening that people just buy into it.
The best sources for Russian side are those from Russia(Rybar OSINT group). Defense Policy Asia is unreliable as I've seen instances where the account owner on twitter has engaged in petty conversation. That's my personal view on it anyway
 

GaudaNaresh

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Usually it happens in a war that a country claims of winning but large number of people points out that no, they're not winning.

This would be the first war where the actual country itself is showing all the signs of losing but a large number of people are claiming that no, they are winning.

It'd be so much fun to look at some (most) of the posts on this thread after few months. I'm so glad there's a bookmark option here on DFI
Are you talking about yourself and you Amriki lund-choos-es ?
Because last i checked, holding territory of the enemy and winning a Verdun-like meat-grinder after months of fighting, is not showing ANY signs of losing, but actual, empirical sign of winning.
I guess yankee propaganda has so addled your brain, that you think holding enemy ground and GAINING ground is sign of losing & not winning.
But then again, you are a hindi speaker learning hindi transliteration from a bengali who hasn't spoken hindi in 20 years, so it figures.
 

GaudaNaresh

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2,000 tanks taken out of action is not an unbelievable number after a year of fighting. Uralvagonzavod refurbishes recovered tanks alongside mothballed stuff too. And a separate production line for new tanks.
View attachment 208532
No, it isnt unbelievable number. But an inflated number doesn't have to be in the realms of unbelievable for it to be spurious and questionable.
Russia could've lost 500-600 tanks and that still would be a humongous loss ( to most nations that alone is enough to wipe out their entire tank force) and it can easily be overcounted by uncorroborated sources like Oryx.
 

Lonewarrior

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Are you talking about yourself and you Amriki lund-choos-es ?
Because last i checked, holding territory of the enemy and winning a Verdun-like meat-grinder after months of fighting, is not showing ANY signs of losing, but actual, empirical sign of winning.
I guess yankee propaganda has so addled your brain, that you think holding enemy ground and GAINING ground is sign of losing & not winning.
But then again, you are a hindi speaker learning hindi transliteration from a bengali who hasn't spoken hindi in 20 years, so it figures.
Tomar songe torko kore besh kono laabh nei Kaku.
Aami bolbo ki Rus er khoti hochhe. Tumi bole debe ki na, sob mithhe.
Aami bolbo ki dekho chhobi, tumi aabar bole debe ki eita bhul chhobi, komputer diye banano.
Aami bolbo ki taale video dekho, tumi bole debe ki na, aita to deepfake.
Aami bolbo ki dekho aekta Pantsir engage hochche, tumi bole debe ki na tumi aita maano na kaeno ki aite dekhte paao jachhe na ki ki aeshe maarchhe.
Aami bolbo ki kichhu na thik to tumi bisfot ta to dekhte pachho, tumi porishkar bole debe ki na 'Did anything even hit?'

To Kaku tomar songe torko kora maane faaltu somoye noshto kora.
Aami aophekka korbo, aek din tumi nijei bolbe ki Rus jitlo na haarlo. Han jodi bhitu r moton id delete kore dile sei din tahole to kichhu bolar ei nei.
 

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