Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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blackjack

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I guess we wont be seeing my Ka-52M radar combination with 2 staged Hermes missile launchers any time soon destroying tanks if drones and Krasnopol shells to them are enough. I mean there were a bunch of M777s that got destroyed by krasnopol shells on tweets so it must be 1. not enough Excalibur shells for Ukraine, 2. not enough drones for Ukraine, 3, russian EW is effective against Ukrainian drones.
 

temujin

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At the very least, they could have captured Kiev, Kharkiv, Sumy and Cherkiv and marched all the way to Dniper River & prevented the rest of Ukraine from coalescing into stiff resistance. At that point the rest of Ukraine would be too stunned or scared.

Now Russia will have to pay a bigger price, i.e., more blood and casualties. The entire Russian military will have a reckoning for sure.
Many of the towns and cities Russia is sacrificing thousands to capture now were occupied by DPR forces in 2014 without firing a shot (or very few shots in any case)- Ukrops were a spent force, Amerika was in the midst of the Obama live-in and the EU was too preoccupied with the Eurozone clusterfuck and, in 2015, the migrant crisis to really care. The average Ukrop was in the early stages of zombification and Putin was still very popular in the Russophone East and South of the country. It was a massive missed opportunity for Russia to capture most useful bits of Ukropia with the minimal use of force.
 

Blademaster

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I guess we wont be seeing my Ka-52M radar combination with 2 staged Hermes missile launchers any time soon destroying tanks if drones and Krasnopol shells to them are enough. I mean there were a bunch of M777s that got destroyed by krasnopol shells on tweets so it must be 1. not enough Excalibur shells for Ukraine, 2. not enough drones for Ukraine, 3, russian EW is effective against Ukrainian drones.
Still you need overlapping coverage to ensure no gap exists.
 

blackjack

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Still you need overlapping coverage to ensure no gap exists.
Ka-27M radar can identify a tank 50-70kms away, the coverage is there so I am assuming the new radar for the Ka-52M will be better for the helicopters to coordinate the Hermes missiles.
 

ww2historian

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At the very least, they could have captured Kiev, Kharkiv, Sumy and Cherkiv and marched all the way to Dniper River & prevented the rest of Ukraine from coalescing into stiff resistance. At that point the rest of Ukraine would be too stunned or scared.

Now Russia will have to pay a bigger price, i.e., more blood and casualties. The entire Russian military will have a reckoning for sure.
It would be great to know the exact number of losses by both sides. Maybe they should go all out, but who knows, if Russia has a 7 to 1 kill ratio, or even closer to a 10 to1, this strategy might be the best. At this point I'm giving the benefit of the doubt to Russia, because they have the true numbers.
 

Flying Dagger

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Good thing because otherwise Russia has a legitimate excuse to take out those Starlink satellites and turn the LEO into a graveyard unfit for anything.
Fake news .. only long range drone strike have been disabled after chemical attack even that too looks like just posturing , nothing else.
 

Knowitall

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Many of the towns and cities Russia is sacrificing thousands to capture now were occupied by DPR forces in 2014 without firing a shot (or very few shots in any case)- Ukrops were a spent force, Amerika was in the midst of the Obama live-in and the EU was too preoccupied with the Eurozone clusterfuck and, in 2015, the migrant crisis to really care. The average Ukrop was in the early stages of zombification and Putin was still very popular in the Russophone East and South of the country. It was a massive missed opportunity for Russia to capture most useful bits of Ukropia with the minimal use of force.
Russian economy would have been toast had they done that. Their economy simply did not have the ability to withstand sanctions back then which is why Putin backed out.
 

DumbPilot

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At the very least, they could have captured Kiev, Kharkiv, Sumy and Cherkiv and marched all the way to Dniper River & prevented the rest of Ukraine from coalescing into stiff resistance. At that point the rest of Ukraine would be too stunned or scared.

Now Russia will have to pay a bigger price, i.e., more blood and casualties. The entire Russian military will have a reckoning for sure.
I think the problem was that they were not flexible. There's a really great book called "Maneuver Warfare Handbook" that goes into the details of this - but the main things that I feel really bogged the Russians down was the poor command, control & comms, poor logistics deep into enemy territory.

Also their failure of hitting their strength against the Ukrainian strength(as it is now - attrition) instead of hitting their strength against the Ukrainian weakness(bypassing areas like Chernihiv or Sumy, where entire Ukrainian divisions were prepared with ATGMs etc)

Manpower was also a detriment. Even the Soviets took double the amount of men into Czhekoslovakia as compared to Ukraine, a country with 8 times less the area.

1676103137935.png


If they are to improve their performance this season, it is clear they can't exactly continue this attrition warfare without killing a lot of their own people as well - unless the political and military command is OK with that.
 

DumbPilot

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I think the problem was that they were not flexible. There's a really great book called "Maneuver Warfare Handbook" that goes into the details of this - but the main things that I feel really bogged the Russians down was the poor command, control & comms, poor logistics deep into enemy territory.

Also their failure of hitting their strength against the Ukrainian strength(as it is now - attrition) instead of hitting their strength against the Ukrainian weakness(bypassing areas like Chernihiv or Sumy, where entire Ukrainian divisions were prepared with ATGMs etc)

Manpower was also a detriment. Even the Soviets took double the amount of men into Czhekoslovakia as compared to Ukraine, a country with 8 times less the area.

View attachment 193165

If they are to improve their performance this season, it is clear they can't exactly continue this attrition warfare without killing a lot of their own people as well - unless the political and military command is OK with that.
Which is kind of ironic actually, since the entire reason for the BTG concept was to increase flexibility. However the Russian doctrine doesn't really allow that, which to my knowledge still has an immense amount of rigidity in command. Self-initiative is frowned upon and you are expected to follow everything your command says without chanding anything in the plan, etc.

I really recommend Maneuver Warfare Handbook by William Lind, it certainly opens up your mind regarding this topic.
 

Anirbann Datta

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Russian economy would have been toast had they done that. Their economy simply did not have the ability to withstand sanctions back then which is why Putin backed out.
but now, situation is quite different, world envies strength, which Russia indeed showed ( though even being portrayed as an aggressor), infact Russia successfully did gave a jolt to US led world order really bad.
It gave an eye opener to all independent economy states that 21st century warfare is more of economic crippler than direct combat via weaponization of currency( which even russia failed to assess prior ), and US and so called 1st world plunged to each kind of possible means imaginable be it to any low to guess to flag up their hegemony.
Even russia falls, it showed the true colour of west or rest of the world.
US and NATO's fall is now inevitable... even it takes 30 more years, it will surely happen.
 

DumbPilot

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1676120670459.png


The effect of accurate artillery fired in mass. (Ukrainian artillery shells landing on a road used by Russians mech)
 

mist_consecutive

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Railway bridge in Odessa, part of a key logistical route for Urkops from Romania, hit by the marine drone yesterday. The damage doesn't look too bad to be fair but it may disrupt supplies for a few weeks.
Not too bad but will take at least a month to repair if not more, that is if Russians don't retarget it.

 

R A Varun

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IDN why they both target the the deck always!!! while a direct attack on pier/s can make the truss bridge permanently inoperable !! 1 blow sufficient enough and 2 years again backtrack!!
attack against piers using the unmanned drones doesn't always work successfull it requires a lot of ordinance to blow it up. that is why during this sabotage missions they always targets the spans it is easy and disrupts the traffic for weeks.
 

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