Russia Ukraine War 2022

Who will win this war?.


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Immanuel

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First round:

On the military front: Ukraine wins this round as they are still standing whatever the reasons or strategy Russia played. Some very good trench warfare by Nato and Ukro nazis. Russia had good odds and still do but so far they have not achieved their goals of protecting donbass from terror attacks as they claimed.
On the economic front: Russia wins as they did not collapse and clearly surviving very well and strategically hurting west and with one blow removed trade blackmailing by west and 5th column nonsense.
I wouldn't say military front is victory for round-1 to Ukraine, Russia without mobilization still controls 18% of Ukraine and they are well entrenched there. Good spirited fighting by Ukr but they are only propped up by NATO thanks in billions in arms/ammo, fuel and funds. Russia is fighting NATO essentially, where US is call shots and Ukr gets all the actionable intel from NATO. So I would give round-1 to Russia just for being more Chad on the battlefield with limited resources (even at great cost to themselves) and continuing to put enormous pressure militarily and on the economic front. Despite sanctions, constant dire predictions of economic collapse, Russia has done fine and they have plenty of cards on the table.

Also, I don't see Russia as the instigating party, there enough evidence to show Ukr being a little whore to the West was planning a large offensive in the south before Feb 24 and this is more of a preemptive SMO. Furthermore, Russia doing this at this time in history is very important, this re-ordering in global power dynamics was absolutely needed, the unipolar, green-haired cucks were and are still running amok all over. This needs to end.
 

Varzone

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Why is russia mobilizing reserves and not active duty members? They say they have used only 2-2.5 lakh personnel till now and iirc Russian AF has a standing strength of nearly 1 million.
And only 6k or so Russians have been killed as per MoD. Go figure.
Active duty members have suffered losses and they need to replenish frontline infantry.
Specialization takes years, so they're only looking to absorb manpower, hold the status quo and then incorporate the 4 oblasts they have in control into russian territory after referendum.
There will be no russian advance on Ukraine anymore.
 

Waanar

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And only 6k or so Russians have been killed as per MoD. Go figure.
Active duty members have suffered losses and they need to replenish frontline infantry.
Specialization takes years, so they're only looking to absorb manpower, hold the status quo and then incorporate the 4 oblasts they have in control into russian territory after referendum.
There will be no russian advance on Ukraine anymore.
There was no point in mobilising for these meagre gains.
More than likely, they're going to push for Odessa. If they do, I reckon they'll have it before April.
 

Varzone

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There was no point in mobilising for these meagre gains.
More than likely, they're going to push for Odessa. If they do, I reckon they'll have it before April.
Nah, it takes more than bodies to fight a war. Ukraine also have reserve manpower. If they lose Odessa then good bye black sea access.

We're jumping the gun, why not wait and see how Russia absorbs the manpower from reserves?
 

1971ftw

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Why is russia mobilizing reserves and not active duty members? They say they have used only 2-2.5 lakh personnel till now and iirc Russian AF has a standing strength of nearly 1 million.
same reason India and china cant mobilize their 20 lakh troops on just one front line. They are needed elsewhere to fight their own battles , Russia is the biggest country on earth by a huge margin, they have plenty of conflict zones.

if china was invading tiwan ,it wouldn't call its troops from eastern theater and leave themselves defenseless with India, now imagine how Russia feels surrounded by nato and their lapdogs.

Also last i checked even propagana westren sources say russia has used only 135k troops, the total pro russian troops is around 180-200k , made up of separatists , militants and volenteers
 

1971ftw

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There was no point in mobilising for these meagre gains.
More than likely, they're going to push for Odessa. If they do, I reckon they'll have it before April.
i doubt that timeline , according to Chechnya representatives Russia is going to start a new wave after spring, there wont be any offensive till then, Russia is stocking up since winter is almost upon them , barely 1 month before it snows like crazy. Spring ends at March. they would need lot of firepower to reach Odessa in few weeks after they open a new wave.
 

Jimih

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There will always be people like this trying to flee conscription in a big country.. Before mobilization, Russians used to have a laugh over videos of Ukranians trying to avoid conscription. NOW, it's Ukranians turn..
You mean Russians turn?
 

Automatic Kalashnikov

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same reason India and china cant mobilize their 20 lakh troops on just one front line. They are needed elsewhere to fight their own battles , Russia is the biggest country on earth by a huge margin, they have plenty of conflict zones.

if china was invading tiwan ,it wouldn't call its troops from eastern theater and leave themselves defenseless with India, now imagine how Russia feels surrounded by nato and their lapdogs.

Also last i checked even propagana westren sources say russia has used only 135k troops, the total pro russian troops is around 180-200k , made up of separatists , militants and volenteers
Every country has reserve formations, which can be moved to any front in a few weeks time, eg 1 strike corps which was earlier dedicated to Pak, after Galwan reorganized to position some elements in Ladakh. If their trained military which has been undergoing training and combat hasn't achieved whatever they wanted to, how well are these reservist who haven't seen combat for some time going to fare?

Didn't the Russian defence minister recently give a how many Russian troops have been deployed?
 

Varzone

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Every country has reserve formations, which can be moved to any front in a few weeks time, eg 1 strike corps which was earlier dedicated to Pak, after Galwan reorganized to position some elements in Ladakh. If their trained military which has been undergoing training and combat hasn't achieved whatever they wanted to, how well are these reservist who haven't seen combat for some time going to fare?

Didn't the Russian defence minister recently give a how many Russian troops have been deployed?
Nibbas they need to rest their active members on the frontline as well.
6 months of active combat, need to cycle them with fresh recruits eventually to tackle falling battalion effectiveness.
 

Automatic Kalashnikov

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Nibbas they need to rest their active members on the frontline as well.
6 months of active combat, need to cycle them with fresh recruits eventually to tackle falling battalion effectiveness.
You take out those in combat and replace them with those who are serving members, well rested and who were training all this while looking at the shortcomings of their operations.
 

Varzone

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You take out those in combat and replace them with those who are serving members, well rested and who were training all this while looking at the shortcomings of their operations.
I don't know how "trained" these "reservists" are...only truths are outcomes on battlefield.
If they're going to go through another training process which I believe they will; they wont reach the battlefield in months from now at minimum.
Don't forget that the volunteer force of 3rd corps failed miserably and melted away in just a few days.
 

The Shrike

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There was no point in mobilising for these meagre gains.
More than likely, they're going to push for Odessa. If they do, I reckon they'll have it before April.

Time to place your bets gentlemen.
IMO the extra bodies will only let them consolidate the land they already hold (again Kharkiv type offensives and "partisan" activities). And maybe some more minor gains in land, Odessa is way too optimistic.
 

1971ftw

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Every country has reserve formations, which can be moved to any front in a few weeks time, eg 1 strike corps which was earlier dedicated to Pak, after Galwan reorganized to position some elements in Ladakh. If their trained military which has been undergoing training and combat hasn't achieved whatever they wanted to, how well are these reservist who haven't seen combat for some time going to fare?
Ukraine according to their own MOD has 700,000 troops. Russia started this war with 135k troops when ukrain had 200k troops. They need more manpower , 100k reserves isnt going to cut it when entire nato is funding Ukraine

Didn't the Russian defense minister recently give a how many Russian troops have been deployed?
Source, WP/NYT/BBC wouldn't be pulling numbers out their ass if this was true
 

Varzone

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Pooty lies, buttoskies dies.
Even before the war, he was spiting lies...no invasion...no conscripts...no mobilisation...no loss no damage. oops cigarettes caused fire on moskva...oops it sunk...no casualities...airfield in crimea blew up...no loss no damage...snake island goodwill gesture...no want it. Kharkhiv offensive from ukro? Ha! never wanted it...we regroup.

 

Varzone

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This will leave towns and towns devoid of young men just like after WW2.
This will cause social problems all across Russia for many many years...


After mobilization one thing is for sure, war will prolong and many more causalities for both sides.
Some hope it will fix things for Russia but it's bad for everyone else.
 

1971ftw

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This will leave towns and towns devoid of young men just like after WW2.
This will cause social problems all across Russia for many many years...

Ukrain mobalised 700k troops picture to picture same way russia is doing, only difrence is Westren PR and massive funding on information warfare, where were all this croc tears from couch potato's when ukrain closed its broders and downright dragged entire towns into the front-lines
 

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