You can bet on gold that Russia will not launch any sort of anti-satellite missile towards ANY starlink chain..
I think you underestimate the amount and altitude of Starlink satellites, and don't understand the physics of orbit. Hitting a satellite physically does not mean it will simply deorbit -- instead thousands of pieces of debris will originate from it and only a small fraction of them will deorbit in the next 24 hours. The rest will scatter around staying in orbit, and then those debris will strike other satellites with a very fast relative velocity, creating even more debris.
It is over for LEO space insertions if that happens, and it is basically the closest we will get to WW3. Infact, I daresay, it will trigger WW3 itself.
View attachment 172047
View attachment 172048View attachment 172049
Each one of those dots is ONE starlink satellite...
This happened because of a rocket failure. They were released at about 1/3 the altitude they are usually released at.
.. now imagine what happens when all of them orbit at 500km above the Earth(very little drag), and someone blows up just
one satellite, and we create a Kessler syndrome?
Here's a Chinese anti-satellite test conducted in 2007:
View attachment 172050
View attachment 172052
It generated almost 3,000 pieces of new debris that could hit anything, and much of it is still in space after a decade and a half.. and the satellite that was blown up (FY-1C) was orbiting just 300km higher than the Starlink satellites.
This was just
ONE satellite. Now imagine what happens when a full chain of Starlinks is killed off?