LOC, LAC & IB skirmishs

[SanjeevM]

In case of war, I wish our special forces guys sneak into Chinese territory and sabotage their ground resources, weapons dumps, their air bases etc. I am not sure in huge fire exchange, that will be possible.

 

[Bornubus]

Chinese amphibious assault capabilities developed over the years keeping in mind their neighbor Tiwan. China has 2 Mechanized amphibious infantry division apart from Airborne, Armour assets and Marine Brigade.


But Indian coastline is well defended and India has it's own amphibious assault Brigade ( 91 Infantry Brigade ) and assets albeit not comparable with Chinese.


But we need to replace our Costal defense weapon systems which still still relies on old soviet stuff -


such as 4K40 Rubezh

 

[Chinmoy]

If we read at the ground that war has become inevitable. Then striking pre-emptive is the logical thing to do. Loosing advantage is a folly in art of war.

About perceptions it doesn't matter who started war only who wins. The countries who have disputes with china will remain anti-china regardless of what we do or don't. Same for anti - India countries.

The important things for us to hold the ground any how. We can always blame chinese for firing first. And historians can keep debating it for decades to come.

Our righteousness didn't help us in 62. Only victory will do.

What you are saying is good to hear or write. It would even look good in cinema scope. But do always remember a fact, war was, is and would always be a political decision. In between countries like India-China or India-Pakistan, its always been politics.

This war, if it happens, would not be like a all out invasion or attack from any side. Both side would try to contain it in in a minimal way. Don't even think that it would be a full blown war. The interests of world does lies in this both country. They have invested a lot in both to let their dollars or pounds sink in a stupid dispute. The moment the first shot is fired, the whole world would converge to deescalate the issue. At that time it would count that who had fired the first round.

Like it or not, but we all are living in a fish market. No matter who is on your side or supports you, but the moment your fish starts stinking a bit, they would start supporting the one who has been able to control the stink of their fish.

 

[IndianHawk]

The moment the first shot is fired, the whole world would converge to deescalate the issue.

See that is the whole point. The moment the mayhem begins international pressure would build up. World will call for immediate ceasefire. The politics will happen on the ground reality after the ceasefire.

If china attacks first and by bluster captures some more ground do you think china will loose that ground in international pressure , I don't think so. They still hold axai chin.

We need to hold the ground whenever talks happen. How do we hold it is irrelevant.
If we lose ground we loose it forever.
If we hold we hold forever.

So we can't just wait for china to build up disproportionate force. As my first line side "if the war becomes inevitable."

 

[Screambowl]

Chairman Jiang Zemin officially made a "Revolution in Military Affairs" (RMA) part of the official national military strategy in 1993 to modernise the Chinese armed forces. A goal of the RMA is to transform the PLA into a force capable of winning what it calls "local wars under high-tech conditions" rather than a massive, numbers-dominated ground-type war. Chinese military planners call for short decisive campaigns, limited in both their geographic scope and their political goals. In contrast to the past, more attention is given to reconnaissance, mobility, and deep reach. This new vision has shifted resources towards the navy and air force. The PLA is also actively preparing for space warfare and cyber-warfare.

 

[Hari Sud]

If they, the Chinese want to attack in a localized war, how would they begin say in Dokala?

I do not believe that they would risk boots on the ground and get pulverized. They would begin with a local rocket/missile attack with short range missiles which are beyond the artillery fire range and set Indian advance posts on fire, kill a number of soldiers and then wait for an Indian response.

Indian response will not come for a number of days and Chinese will claim victory as their advance guards will occupy the Indian post left smouldering in the rocket/missile fire.

Indian response in a few days may set Chinese advance bases on fire with Brahmos or burn Lhasa airfield. That will deny Chinese a victory.

Now the negotiations begin.....

 

[IndianHawk]

Like it or not, but we all are living in a fish market. No matter who is on your side or supports you, but the moment your fish starts stinking a bit, they would start supporting the one who has been able to control the stink of their fish.

We are also living in the world of Trump. He has called for trade probe against china from Monday. The fish is already stinking.

 

[IndianHawk]

Indian response in a few days may set Chinese advance bases on fire with Brahmos or burn Lhasa airfield. That will deny Chinese a victory.

Again victorious will be the one who will hold most of the ground. Death count will be forgotten in few years . Negotiation will take forever. The ground is what matters.

No matter at what price , it's the ground that counts.

 

[Chinmoy]

See that is the whole point. The moment the mayhem begins international pressure would build up. World will call for immediate ceasefire. The politics will happen on the ground reality after the ceasefire.

If china attacks first and by bluster captures some more ground do you think china will loose that ground in international pressure , I don't think so. They still hold axai chin.

We need to hold the ground whenever talks happen. How do we hold it is irrelevant.
If we lose ground we loose it forever.
If we hold we hold forever.

So we can't just wait for china to build up disproportionate force. As my first line side "if the war becomes inevitable."

Now when you ahve mentioned Aksai-Chin, what about Tawang, Bomdila, Anini and half of AP? Are they still in posession of the landscape which they had conquered in 62? Aksai Chin is whith China not because they have a hell of armed power. It is with them because of our weak political influence and unwillingness for start.

Lets talk about what if India wins. Do you think India would be able to make Tibet a free country? Would it be able to get back Aksai-Chin? All in all it would be able to do is to save Doklam and smear the face of Xi in black. Neither China nor India would be able to negotiate on any of the border dispute by holding back any other part of land.

Let me quote Xi here....

“Troops across the entire military, you must be unwavering in upholding the bedrock principle of absolute party leadership of the military,” Xi said at the parade, held on a dusty training base in Inner Mongolia region, 270 miles northwest of Beijing. “Always obey and follow the party. Go and fight wherever the party points.”

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-shows-off-its-military-might-as-xi-jinping-tries-to-cement-his-power/articleshow/59844616.cms

Even Stalin asked its force to fight for Mother Russia instead of party. Xi simply wants to cash this opportunity for upcoming election instead of any strategic implication. He is well aware of what China would go through if any war is brought upon India right now.

 

[Screambowl]

I do not believe that they would risk boots on the ground and get pulverized. They would begin with a local rocket/missile attack with short range missiles which are beyond the artillery fire range and set Indian advance posts on fire, kill a number of soldiers and then wait for an Indian response.

What is the counter to their rocket arty?
sy300-sy400
...................................

 

[Chinmoy]

We are also living in the world of Trump. He has called for trade probe against china from Monday. The fish is already stinking.

Is Trump ready to celebrate Christmas this time without a Christmas tree which doesn't have a "Made in China" label on it?

 

[IndianHawk]

Now when you ahve mentioned Aksai-Chin, what about Tawang, Bomdila, Anini and half of AP? Are they still in posession of the landscape which they had conquered in 62?

Yes exactly . Chinese captured areas in both east and west and then sued for peace by only leaving the east. They controlled the narrative of peace negotiation because they controlled the ground .

Lets talk about what if India wins. Do you think India would be able to make Tibet a free country? Would it be able to get back Aksai-Chin?

If the war escalated the most logical thing for us to do is gain back aksai chin.

Chinese have two options here.
A) take dokalm anyhow and then call for negotiation. For this they will have to first cut supply line for indians at the platue and then capture or kill indians physically present at the location.
India will have to kill the Chinese then .
Again move in china court ? They will escalate for sure otherwise they won't attack in the first place.

B) capture more territory elsewhere and then offer a swap.
Indian response either free that new caputured territory or capture any other Chinese Territory.
Ball again in chinese court. They will again have to escalate as none of their initial objectives will be met.

No matter how you play it if chinese attack the war is going to be escalated because without getting doklam road back china looses. Why would china start a skirmish to loose?? China will stop at skirmish only if it capture the area it needs for road or more area somewhere else for swap.

We can't give them road back. We can't allow them to capture area anywhere.

If chinese understand this there is no point in attacking at all . Then they must negotiate right now and compromise.

But If they don't understand this, war is going to be escalated to other sectors. And we must then capture and hold axai chin.
We can also capture area between bhutan and Sikkim to hold forever or to swap for axai.

If war escalated it will be battle of nerves. We must hold what we capture . No matter how much chinese escalate short of nukes in which case we must nuke them too.
And world population should decrease substantially.

 

[IndianHawk]

Is Trump ready to celebrate Christmas this time without a Christmas tree which doesn't have a "Made in China" label on it?

He is launching trade probe. It's a done deal . It will be announced on Monday.

 

[Screambowl]

I feel that if there is a small skirmish with China it will after few time be followed by skirmish with Pakistan.

By the way what is the counter to their rocket arty? sy300 and sy400?

 

[IndianHawk]

I feel that if there is a small skirmish with China

An small skirmish with Chinese point of view only works if India gives up. If India comes up with advantage. The Chinese would either meltdown or escalate.

If chinese meltdown paki would meltdown too.

 

[Filtercoffee]

I feel that if there is a small skirmish with China it will after few time be followed by skirmish with Pakistan.

No one is up for a war since the upgrade of the two nations is going on. People and places cannot wipe out ideals of progression and infrastructure planning. No money here or parties involved would try. Its a joint operation to drive out the old Axis. Remember 45'. They are actually relaying by tearing open japanese tankers.

 

[Kazah]

Latest video from sikkim where local kids are giving cards & flowers to soldiers....... :'-)

btw check what's going in the truck

@Screambowl @Bornubus @Screambowl @Kunal Biswas @aditya g @NeXoft007 @captscooby81 @IndianHawk @Chinmoy

 

[SanjeevM]

What is the counter to their rocket arty?
sy300-sy400
...................................

Can our radars or satellites locate these rockets and once we have location coordinates, fire with Agni or Bhramos. Will that work?

 

[roma]

WAR is imminent it seems, I request senior members to shut any pinky when first shots are fired .. ..

meghnad desai our famous nri eonomist thinks so too ...infact he thinks it will be full-scale
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/...likely-soon-says-meghnad-desai/1/1019794.html

Full-scale India-China war likely soon, Washington will back New Delhi: Meghnad Desai

So it has finally come to that.Good Luck everyone.

War or a skirmish?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

see above as well --- full scaçle accd to Meghnad
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...ghnad-desai/story-S74VHhbMKI4xqbUJqDcuAP.html

That will be decided after the dust settles.
Chinese will try to gain the upper hand in a skirmishes and declare victory and offer Peace. A redux of 1962 .

But India might just be too strong to be moved in doklam and thus might force chinese to open other frontiers , India itself might open other theaters if things escalate at doklam .

In above two cases it will be a war.

Do you think we have reached the point where a war or at-least limited skirmish is inevitable? When is their 15 day ultimatum ending? If we have sufficient intelligence of a possible Chinese strike, can we launch pre-emptive trikes? Are we days/weeks away from getting into conflict?

We must hope war is not in cards as this will pushed us decades back .But if War is pushed on us,make sure we take the maximum out of it which includes tibet and aksai chin.

Nope, war sure should be avoided but it will not push us back by decades. Nuking is out of option since both India and China have nukes. At most local skirmish may happen. The way things are going on in Korean peninsula China has to devote large amount of Naval & air power dedicated to its East. It will not go for a full scale war with India at this time. I think a lot of behind scene negotiations will be done with US before India commits to war with China. If US agrees then only we will go full steam otherwise we will try to buy time and solve diplomatically.
Also time is not yet ripe to take out Tibet or Aksai Chin. A hot exchange will be directed towards maintaining the status quo rather than altering it.

also meghnad said USA will ask idia for help on lorean conflict

China has changed a lot!!!
They are SINGLE BABY EMPERORS of a Nuclear Family, thanx to ONE CHILD POLICY.
if a Chinese Soldier Dies, he will left behind Two Parents, Four Grand Parents (Six in total), whom there will be no-one to look after.
And now Chinese have gone richer also (Middle Income Country).
.

all true but this tie it is with sophisticated machines .... and perhaps they have the better machines ?

The one child policy can cause more pain, but IMO its restricted to that family. China is still very hierarchical. The communist party will care 2 hoots about who dies and they are the ones that set the narrative.

I will suggest that we should ask Tibetans to form an army. In case of war, while we are engaged with China on other borders, Tibetans can march to their country and capture as much area with local support as they can. They should cut Chinese supply lines including bridges that connect Tibet with China. We can show that it's local Tibetans who are fighting the war of freedom from China. The same as China is doing by inciting and financing and arming our dissidents in north east, naxals and also supporting kashmiris through Pakistan as proxy.

We are also living in the world of Trump. He has called for trade probe against china from Monday. The fish is already stinking.

Now when you ahve mentioned Aksai-Chin, what about Tawang, Bomdila, Anini and half of AP? Are they still in posession of the landscape which they had conquered in 62? Aksai Chin is whith China not because they have a hell of armed power. It is with them because of our weak political influence and unwillingness for start.

Lets talk about what if India wins. Do you think India would be able to make Tibet a free country? Would it be able to get back Aksai-Chin? All in all it would be able to do is to save Doklam and smear the face of Xi in black. Neither China nor India would be able to negotiate on any of the border dispute by holding back any other part of land.

Let me quote Xi here....


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...-to-cement-his-power/articleshow/59844616.cms
Even Stalin asked its force to fight for Mother Russia instead of party. Xi simply wants to cash this opportunity for upcoming election instead of any strategic implication. He is well aware of what China would go through if any war is brought upon India right now.

An small skirmish with Chinese point of view only works if India gives up. If India comes up with advantage. The Chinese would either meltdown or escalate.
If chinese meltdown paki would meltdown too.

i had thought that it would be a limited war in some theatre ending quickly with a stalemate and china claiming a huge victory and india asllowing them to do that in order to put an end to the whole thind ......b

but expert nri Lord Meghnad desai thinks otherwise -....just google --he thinks it will be a full scale war with usa helping india and in retrun asking india to help them in korea ? sounds a bit unusual to me that usa should ask india for manpower help but the big man thinks so ....lets see

frankly ....im uneasy about this ....our equipment is smaler in quantity to theirs they mfg their own and con produce spares , ammo basicalty at will

the only thing inverted commas "good " about this is that it iwll be another wake up call like 1962 -- where we totally changed our policies regarding armaments ......

we should have pushed manufacuring a lot earlier but wonderful congi let us down very badly ..... we have to take indegenus manufacturing much more seriously ....someone posted above that all computers basically made in china ....its a lousy situation

we shoudl preferably have delayed a war till our mfg and arms level are up to at least chinas level let alone china plus pak

situation looks grim and we would now have to depend to usa to give support .....but when is it coming ?? they should be sending equipment and supplies NOW rather than wait for a war to break out and then send supplies and equipment ???

well brahma chellaney had predicted years ago about 6 yearas ago that china india war would be around 2014 -2019 time frame - beause after that the populatin dividend and the gerneral situationin india would be very positive plus our manufacturing and equipment supplies and aircraft wuld come online so most likely china would attack us to put us down before that happened

he might be right - hope we can pull through and if we do and get our systems in order after this - we should then turn the tables around and start harassing them at every opportunity - i mean including squeeze them at the malacca straits and start targetting their cpec alternative route - missile on it every now and then - give to baluch the missiles and to pashtun the shoulder carried missiles to hit the cpec route weekly

 

[SanjeevM]

meghnad desai our famous nri eonomist thinks so too ...infact he thinks it will be full-scale
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/...likely-soon-says-meghnad-desai/1/1019794.html

Full-scale India-China war likely soon, Washington will back New Delhi: Meghnad Desai






see above as well --- full scaçle accd to Meghnad
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...ghnad-desai/story-S74VHhbMKI4xqbUJqDcuAP.html









also meghnad said USA will ask idia for help on lorean conflict



all true but this tie it is with sophisticated machines .... and perhaps they have the better machines ?












i had thought that it would be a limited war in some theatre ending quickly with a stalemate and china claiming a huge victory and india asllowing them to do that in order to put an end to the whole thind ......b

but expert nri Lord Meghnad desai thinks otherwise -....just google --he thinks it will be a full scale war with usa helping india and in retrun asking india to help them in korea ? sounds a bit unusual to me that usa should ask india for manpower help but the big man thinks so ....lets see

frankly ....im uneasy about this ....our equipment is smaler in quantity to theirs they mfg their own and con produce spares , ammo basicalty at will

the only thing inverted commas "good " about this is that it iwll be another wake up call like 1962 -- where we totally changed our policies regarding armaments ......

we should have pushed manufacuring a lot earlier but wonderful congi let us down very badly ..... we have to take indegenus manufacturing much more seriously ....someone posted above that all computers basically made in china ....its a lousy situation

we shoudl preferably have delayed a war till our mfg and arms level are up to at least chinas level let alone china plus pak

situation looks grim and we would now have to depend to usa to give support .....but when is it coming ?? they should be sending equipment and supplies NOW rather than wait for a war to break out and then send supplies and equipment ???

China is the imperialist. India stands in its way to becoming a super power and show its hegemony on its neighbors and SCS countries.

Unless China defeats India, China cannot expect other countries to obey Chinese commands to give away their territories. In case China is defeated by India, every dog will shit on China. So they have this opportunity to show their power.

Modi should himself visit ordinance factories and get ammunition production going at faster pace. Even involve private sector to quickly build up ammunition production lines. No time should be wasted for ammunition production.

Army should accept Indian guns and let the production start at faster pace, instead of wasting time on endless trials. If certain guns have proved successful, get them in large numbers. Imports can't win us wars. Only indigenous production can win us wars.

I'm not sure how many missiles of 400km range we have, we need to multiply their production in case we need to take on Chinese rockets.