Know Your 'Rafale'

[BON PLAN]

There is not going to be ToT and the offsets would be abt 50% but ONLY IF THE DEAL HAPPENS. At the price of roughly US$ 230 million a pop, I dont think the GoI will risk to buy Rafale when 5th gen PAKFA is available at much cheaper rate and yes, both planes will come around same time With more than 100 Tejas Mk1 ordered, the Rafale will be one of the story that the french will be able to say about the cake baked but could not be eaten.

The European consortium Eurofighter Typhoon announced Friday, September 11 the sale of twenty- eight aircraft Typhoon Kuwait. According to the website of the Italian daily Corriere della Sera, the value of the order would amount to 7 or 8 billion

that is 250 to 285 $million each. It seems it's the price of this kind of fighter.

 

[BON PLAN]

One thing is fact that Tejas are coming to IAF in numbers and with more Tejas taken in that diminishes the chances of Rafale. After all even the Defence minister of India said that MiG-21 cannot be replaced by Rafales and now its question of what will replace the MIGs and the answer is TEJAS

Sure Tejas is the replacement fighter of Mig21. They are two point defense fighters.
MMRCA is more a replacement of Mig23 /27.

Last performances of HAL in developpment and induction of plane, even widely simpler, inspires confidence. And IAF and top Indian officials know that. Tejas is not a stabilized programm (Mk 1, Mk1A, Mk2 ... hard to follow)

 

[BON PLAN]

But by how much from current levels ?

The budget break even price for most countries is above 90$ a barell

Main of these country are not indebted. They can obtain money easily.
These kind of purchase (fighters, nuclear plant, harbours....) are long term item. Oil price will necessarily increase, because it's a limited resource.

 

[Tactical Frog]

The European consortium Eurofighter Typhoon announced Friday, September 11 the sale of twenty- eight aircraft Typhoon Kuwait. According to the website of the Italian daily Corriere della Sera, the value of the order would amount to 7 or 8 billion

that is 250 to 285 $million each. It seems it's the price of this kind of fighter.

That is consistent with the Rafale deal with Qatar : € 6,3 billions for 24 planes, with Scalp missiles, Exocet and Meteor. Maybe India can reduce the bill with a different weapon load.
Maintenance, training, spare parts, flight simulators... complex negotiations.

 

[BON PLAN]

That is consistent with the Rafale deal with Qatar : € 6,3 billions for 24 planes, with Scalp missiles, Exocet and Meteor. Maybe India can reduce the bill with a different weapon load.
Maintenance, training, spare parts, flight simulators... complex negotiations.

Indeed.
And the weapon package of Qatar is important.

 

[smestarz]

So, this deal is a no-go. The only deal that can possibly go now is FGFA as its a FRESH ONE The french have already lost this deal. And if GoI signs it, the political party will be going into implosion and not become a major power for atleast 2 decades... BJP at this juncture is poised to be in power for atleast a decade or two but signing this deal will ensure that they will lose the next General elections would you risk signing this deal after knowing all these numbers and risking the political future?

 

[smestarz]

That is consistent with the Rafale deal with Qatar : € 6,3 billions for 24 planes, with Scalp missiles, Exocet and Meteor. Maybe India can reduce the bill with a different weapon load.
Maintenance, training, spare parts, flight simulators... complex negotiations.

You miss the important point, PRICE. As its highly publicised thing, Let me ask you some question and you can understand it.
Lets say france wants to buy Maritime Strategic Reconaisance plane it floats a requirement say 10 planes for 500 million dollars (Indian MMRCA 126 planes for 10 billion dollars) and then many companies put their bids like say Boeing, Airbus, Tupilev, Embaer for example.. and lets say that finally Boeing is selected as Winner. (in MMRCA it was Rafale) and the govt changes and due to complications of the deal, the new govt fels its best to go for Govt to Govt. and they ask Boeing to give say 3 planes and advice the package, Boeing quotes 400 million.
Now the earlier RFP stated 10 planes for 500 million and it included, producing in France, ToT etc, and now for the 3 planes France will be charged 450 million. Without any tech transfer or producing in France, Would you as a leader be able to explain the difference to your people?

as a matter of fact, its worse for Rafale deal. The RFP was 10 billion dollars for 126 planes coming to about 80 million a plane, out of which 18 were to be produced in France, and balance to be produced in India, There would be a line set up and also there would be tech transfer and offset. Now Dassault at many times confirmed the prices will be 80 million a plane at least they did not reject the notion of the price. And rather it seems Dassault did leave it vague so that it can later milk india for the various costs Lines, ToT weapons etc. But what was implied that the 10 billion dollas will bring in 126 planes (18 + 108), training + weapons and capabilities. Of course spares and maintenance was not part of the package. So just look at the number 10 billion and 126 planes making it 80 million a plane. Now as per various sources, France and India agreed in Paris that India will buy from france 36 planes at PRICES LOWER THAN MMRCA and the same price as AdlA.. and the price for 36 planes will be at least US$ 6.5 billion that comes to US$ 180 million a plane.So how can 180 million be cheaper than 80 million?
Now most of India does not really understand the details of the deal etc, and so, all the opposition have to say that Modi was trying to please the french, we were getting the planes at 80 million but Modi govt cancelled that and gave higher price to French, and that too without any tech transfer. Further what about the Make in India Modi was promoting, he purchased 36 planes MADE IN FRANCE.
Do you see Modi Govt coming in power after signing this deal? The deal is political suicide. Even Congress knew it and so they were reluctant to sign it.

So whatever you sell to Qatar is good price for you, but for India now Rafale is like poisoned water, whoever tastes it, is politically dead.

Almost a decade ago, The Congress govt lost power due to Bofors scam and then there was long time that opposition was in power, till the assassination of Rajeev Gandhi which brought a sympathy wave and Congress to power.

So, this deal is a no-go. The only deal that can possibly go now is FGFA as its a FRESH ONE The french have already lost this deal. And if GoI signs it, the political party will be going into implosion and not become a major power for atleast 2 decades... BJP at this juncture is poised to be in power for atleast a decade or two but signing this deal will ensure that they will lose the next General elections would you risk signing this deal after knowing all these numbers and risking the political future?

 

[smestarz]

With your "old" Mirage, maybe. Mith new radar and Mica, not need to be acccompagnied. 6 MICA are enough for self defense.

Lol 6 MICA vs F-16 armed with AIM-120C-5 ?
AIM 120 C-5 has range of about 100 kms, where as MICA is almost half that.
6 MICA are enough for self defence if they expect PAF F-15 to come close within the Range of MICA but then AMRAAM are able to target the Mirage 2000 comfortably well outside the range of MICA armed Mirage 2000.
Unfoftunately MICA does not have the long range and that is why French are buying 100 units of METEOR. Did you think that France is buying Meteor because it has excessive cash?
AMRAAM 100 kms + vs MICA much lower than 100 kms
I think for the tactical part, IAF knows much better than you. Even for Kargil operations they had sent Mirage 2000 for strike and MiG-29 to ensure that the F-16 keep away. Mrage 2000 is out matched by the PAF F-16 block 52. Mirage 2000 is simply no match.

 

[smestarz]

The European consortium Eurofighter Typhoon announced Friday, September 11 the sale of twenty- eight aircraft Typhoon Kuwait. According to the website of the Italian daily Corriere della Sera, the value of the order would amount to 7 or 8 billion

that is 250 to 285 $million each. It seems it's the price of this kind of fighter.

We are not buying them either are we? We are happy buying Tejas MK1, MK2 in future and PAKFA. So the question of Eurofighter cost does not really excite me

 

[smestarz]

Sure Tejas is the replacement fighter of Mig21. They are two point defense fighters.
MMRCA is more a replacement of Mig23 /27.

Last performances of HAL in developpment and induction of plane, even widely simpler, inspires confidence. And IAF and top Indian officials know that. Tejas is not a stabilized programm (Mk 1, Mk1A, Mk2 ... hard to follow)

MiG-23/27 will be again replaced by Tejas, The role for MiG-23/27 was that of Ground attack, so, Tejas which has been developed as Light MRCA will be handling that role.
As I said, all the roles of planes in IAF have been taken by other new planes, and Rafale is just surplus as it does not bring anything new to the table.

 

[BON PLAN]

You miss the important point, PRICE. As its highly publicised thing, Let me ask you some question and you can understand it.
Lets say france wants to buy Maritime Strategic Reconaisance plane it floats a requirement say 10 planes for 500 million dollars (Indian MMRCA 126 planes for 10 billion dollars) and then many companies put their bids like say Boeing, Airbus, Tupilev, Embaer for example.. and lets say that finally Boeing is selected as Winner. (in MMRCA it was Rafale) and the govt changes and due to complications of the deal, the new govt fels its best to go for Govt to Govt. and they ask Boeing to give say 3 planes and advice the package, Boeing quotes 400 million.
Now the earlier RFP stated 10 planes for 500 million and it included, producing in France, ToT etc, and now for the 3 planes France will be charged 450 million. Without any tech transfer or producing in France, Would you as a leader be able to explain the difference to your people?

as a matter of fact, its worse for Rafale deal. The RFP was 10 billion dollars for 126 planes coming to about 80 million a plane, out of which 18 were to be produced in France, and balance to be produced in India, There would be a line set up and also there would be tech transfer and offset. Now Dassault at many times confirmed the prices will be 80 million a plane at least they did not reject the notion of the price. And rather it seems Dassault did leave it vague so that it can later milk india for the various costs Lines, ToT weapons etc. But what was implied that the 10 billion dollas will bring in 126 planes (18 + 108), training + weapons and capabilities. Of course spares and maintenance was not part of the package. So just look at the number 10 billion and 126 planes making it 80 million a plane. Now as per various sources, France and India agreed in Paris that India will buy from france 36 planes at PRICES LOWER THAN MMRCA and the same price as AdlA.. and the price for 36 planes will be at least US$ 6.5 billion that comes to US$ 180 million a plane.So how can 180 million be cheaper than 80 million?
Now most of India does not really understand the details of the deal etc, and so, all the opposition have to say that Modi was trying to please the french, we were getting the planes at 80 million but Modi govt cancelled that and gave higher price to French, and that too without any tech transfer. Further what about the Make in India Modi was promoting, he purchased 36 planes MADE IN FRANCE.
Do you see Modi Govt coming in power after signing this deal? The deal is political suicide. Even Congress knew it and so they were reluctant to sign it.

So whatever you sell to Qatar is good price for you, but for India now Rafale is like poisoned water, whoever tastes it, is politically dead.

Almost a decade ago, The Congress govt lost power due to Bofors scam and then there was long time that opposition was in power, till the assassination of Rajeev Gandhi which brought a sympathy wave and Congress to power.

So, this deal is a no-go. The only deal that can possibly go now is FGFA as its a FRESH ONE The french have already lost this deal. And if GoI signs it, the political party will be going into implosion and not become a major power for atleast 2 decades... BJP at this juncture is poised to be in power for atleast a decade or two but signing this deal will ensure that they will lose the next General elections would you risk signing this deal after knowing all these numbers and risking the political future?

If India want a Rafale at Tejas price or even at F16 price, good bye !
It's India which lauch the MMRCA programm, it's India which choose Rafale, It's India who decide to cancel MMRCA and baught on the shelf 36 unit.

FGFA is far from being induct.... (The russian model was to be induce in 2016)

Tejas is already on the drawing board.

And during all this time, Mig 21 continue to crash.

The game is not over.

 

[BON PLAN]

MiG-23/27 will be again replaced by Tejas, The role for MiG-23/27 was that of Ground attack, so, Tejas which has been developed as Light MRCA will be handling that role.
As I said, all the roles of planes in IAF have been taken by other new planes, and Rafale is just surplus as it does not bring anything new to the table.

Tejas is far, far from having loading capacity + range to replace Mig23/27. From the beginning it's a pin point fighter. A Mig 21 replacement.

 

[smestarz]

Tejas is far, far from having loading capacity + range to replace Mig23/27. From the beginning it's a pin point fighter. A Mig 21 replacement.

Tejas : Combat radius: 500 km
MiG-27: Combat radius: 780 km

But then Tejas has aerial refueling capability and carries 20% more load than MiG-27, MiG-27 carries 4 tons, Tejas can carry 5 tons. Thus that is better useful load,

Also as I had mentioned in my earlier post, we have 3 planes that can fulfill the missions done by MiG-27. Those are Jaguar, Mirage 2000 and MiG-29. Also we have BAe Hawk which is known ground attack plane.
There is also the vaunted Su-30 MKI which will be an overkill, but the point is, that for MiG-27 roles we already have enough planes. Rafale does not bring something new.

 

[smestarz]

If India want a Rafale at Tejas price or even at F16 price, good bye !
It's India which lauch the MMRCA programm, it's India which choose Rafale, It's India who decide to cancel MMRCA and baught on the shelf 36 unit.

FGFA is far from being induct.... (The russian model was to be induce in 2016)

Tejas is already on the drawing board.

And during all this time, Mig 21 continue to crash.

The game is not over.

Now the French seems to be getting the drift..
The french wanted to milk the proverbial indian cow.

India did not buy Rafale. MoU was signed then IGA, but then when the price is not fixed, nothing happens, Surely Modi can give you his word and the french can start delivering for his word. A

FGFA is not going to be inducted, But we are geting 3 models for our testing, which will then be tested well and other modfications or avionics will be suggested and that will be FGFA

Tejas on drawing board? Wake up boy, Tejas recently fired Derby and qualified for it, The FOC is this year, by next year more than 16 Tejas will be on the production line.. so good bye Frencies..

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

If India want a Rafale at Tejas price or even at F16 price, good bye !
It's India which lauch the MMRCA programm, it's India which choose Rafale, It's India who decide to cancel MMRCA and baught on the shelf 36 unit.

FGFA is far from being induct.... (The russian model was to be induce in 2016)

Tejas is already on the drawing board.

And during all this time, Mig 21 continue to crash.

The game is not over.

When was the last.mig 21/crash in iaf ?

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

If India want a Rafale at Tejas price or even at F16 price, good bye !
It's India which lauch the MMRCA programm, it's India which choose Rafale, It's India who decide to cancel MMRCA and baught on the shelf 36 unit.

FGFA is far from being induct.... (The russian model was to be induce in 2016)

Tejas is already on the drawing board.

And during all this time, Mig 21 continue to crash.

The game is not over.

Tejas is flying on fic stutus due to stupidity of iaf

 

[Tactical Frog]

$ 10 billion for 124 planes : was it an estimation or an official cap ?
$ 8 billion for 36 planes with a good weapon load : very fair price for getting the best fighter-bomber in the world.
It is not about milking Inda. It is about France offering to a friendly country the very best of its engineering, some real gem crafted with love and against formidable resistance. It comes with. a price .. but the Rafale is unique and will prove it I am afraid in years to come.
You will learn to like the Rafale

 

[smestarz]

$ 10 billion for 124 planes : was it an estimation or an official cap ?
$ 8 billion for 36 planes with a good weapon load : very fair price for getting the best fighter-bomber in the world.
It is not about milking Inda. It is about France offering to a friendly country the very best of its engineering, some real gem crafted with love and against formidable resistance. It comes with. a price .. but the Rafale is unique and will prove it I am afraid in years to come.
You will learn to like the Rafale

Now the French are talking? A few years back when Rafale was selected the as L1 then Dassault did not deny saying anything about the nos of the price, rather they were confirming that the the price of 126 planes would come to US$ 10 billion, and then they came up with "rider" that the planes made by HAL would be expensive and so the price have to be raised. The point to note is that Dasault did not have any objection when the RFP was issued (they did sign the RFP accepting the terms set forth in the RFP) and after they were declared as L1 suddenly Dassault "realised" that HAL is not competent and the price have to be raise.

10 billion was the Official CAP.

Rafale might be good, but not worth the price because India has other options at far less price (read Su-30 MKI, Su-35, MiG-35, maybe even F/A-18 E/F..

Further for the "Medium" weight category, we have the MiG-29 and Mirage 2000, and for the Ground attack/Strike we have Jaguar, Mirage 2000, MiG-29, HAWK, also to be complimented by Tejas in few years We dont actually have a requirement for "Rafale type" plane nor in weight category nor in role.

Tejas getting the FOC this year will the final indication to France that we really do not need Rafale.

Even we dont really need PAKFA at this stage, but having them will give us the "first day of war" advantage of using a 5th Gen plane against these opponents, rather these planes might actually prove as a deterrent for China as they might have second thought of trying any mischief with india

 

[Immanuel]

OK.
French air force is very happy with Rafale.
Indian air force seems very happy with MKI (and with Mirage. Enough to give Mirage the deterrence role)

- It's not the french side who choose Rafale as L1. And IAF want it a lot, until years.
- HAL is not a french subsidiary. And everybody knows the difficulties HAL had and has to induce Tejas and some others programm (turboprop trailer, drone) => Dassault prefer not to clinch a deal with a lot of risk, specially with HAL. It's a key point of the last MMRCA not deal.
- Nobody's here knows the real price of the deal.... and what kind or TOT and real offset and nature of support needed.

So let's see what happend.

If India don't want Rafale, it's a pity, but not the end of the world. Others customers arrived soon, and are able to clinch until some month.

End of the story.

Well it is ze french who bunged up their costing, the way the L-1 was determined was tainted to say the least, Dassault had tons of hidden costs in their bid, the truth became quite apparent over time, the real costs had risen by nearly 50%. Rafale was one of the two finalists and the prudent thing to do then would have been to evaluate both instead of focusing on the L-1. This was a grave mistake by the then MOD and UPA stooges.

You of all people shouldn't be saying much about HAL, HAL has its own challenges some of them stem directly from the ineffective MOD of the past years, IAF's fickle attitude towards anything domestic. LCA is a fantastic aircraft that since day 1 has incorporated everything the IAF has wanted over time, IAF has always changed its requirements often while having bastardly approach to the LCA, had they given a flying fuck since the start, they would have had a truly great aircraft by now.

HAL works well with-in the red tape that it's submerged in, if the other orgs. and ministries are efficient, they too can be brought quickly in line.

Dassault is run by pimps, liars and bigots and that is a fact. The MRCA RFP always stated HAL was the lead integrator, why then did Dassult do a U-turn when clearly since day one there was no option but to work with HAL. All of a sudden they were bitching about how HAL couldn't absord tech (biggest joke of that time), how the promised 100% TOT was dropped to less then 70%. Why did Dassult respond to the bid in the first place if working with HAL was such a risk, RFP was always clear on this. HAL by then was already making 90% of the MKI in India, which apart from AESA is just as advanced as the Rafale and in many cases would run circles around the Rafale any day.

No body knows the price but based on previous deals, its quite clear Rafale's costs per unit is well over €120 million and life cycle costs can easily be well over 220 million excluding one time costs of MLU which looking at the Mirage deal would be quite easily around 60 million per bird.

India doesn't need Rafale and its no pity, its a boon with over 9-10 billion saved which can be invested on the LCA/MKI and others, as for other customers for Rafale who gives a flying fuck.

 

[BON PLAN]

Lol 6 MICA vs F-16 armed with AIM-120C-5 ?
AIM 120 C-5 has range of about 100 kms, where as MICA is almost half that.
6 MICA are enough for self defence if they expect PAF F-15 to come close within the Range of MICA but then AMRAAM are able to target the Mirage 2000 comfortably well outside the range of MICA armed Mirage 2000.
Unfoftunately MICA does not have the long range and that is why French are buying 100 units of METEOR. Did you think that France is buying Meteor because it has excessive cash?
AMRAAM 100 kms + vs MICA much lower than 100 kms
I think for the tactical part, IAF knows much better than you. Even for Kargil operations they had sent Mirage 2000 for strike and MiG-29 to ensure that the F-16 keep away. Mrage 2000 is out matched by the PAF F-16 block 52. Mirage 2000 is simply no match.

MICA demonstrate a real range of 67km in 1997 with a fire from a Taiwanese M2000 against a flying drone. And don't expect Taiwanese air force to give China the real max range of one of its weapon, so real max range of MICA is more than 67km. It was in 1997.... we can expect it has been ameliorated since (MBDA doesn't add to its products information about batch, as AMRAAM A, C5, D ....).
French force baught only 100 missile because :
1) They think such a range is quite useless, except against target like tanker, awacs, C17 like... It why next gen of MICA will not emphasize on range, but on speed. Why? Because in a real hard intensity war the sky will be too encombrate and with such electronic signals perturbations all around it would be impossible to fire at such a range without risk of friendly shoot.
2) When your main competitors has such missile (Meteor on EF and Gripen, New AMRAAM on american plane...) you must have something identical.

During Kargil, your M2000 wasn't "-5" one, ie without MICA, but Magic like and SUPER 530D. To carry bombs, you must put tanks under wings, so no SUPER 530D. Is as simple as that.

You lack of true information Guy. It's not first time I realized that.