OK.
French air force is very happy with Rafale.
Indian air force seems very happy with MKI (and with Mirage. Enough to give Mirage the deterrence role).
AdlA is happy with Rafale because they use it and they find its good for their requirement, and of course its french. The IAF is "happy" with MKI. IAF top brass was not keeping enough spares and then claiming that most of Su-30 MKI fleet is grounded, IAF was blaming everyone else, but the main reason for this mess is IAF thinking.
Mirage 2000 are being upgraded. The deterrence role is with Strategic Missiles now, and then it will go to Super Suhois. IAF does realise that for sending Mirage 2000 on nuclear strike mission, it will have to be accompanied by Su-30 MKI or at least MiG-29 to keep away the PAF F-16 block 52
It's not the french side who choose Rafale as L1. And IAF want it a lot, until years.
YES exactly it is WANT of IAF, and not the actual need. Whatever we need that is fulfilled by "heavier" Su-30 MKI, Medium MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 and Light Tejas. and further to be enhanced by FGFA.
- HAL is not a french subsidiary. And everybody knows the difficulties HAL had and has to induce Tejas and some others programm (turboprop trailer, drone) => Dassault prefer not to clinch a deal with a lot of risk, specially with HAL. It's a key point of the last MMRCA not deal.
It was Indian Air force which was changing the ASQR repeatedly to ensure that GoI feels that Tejas is useless and to buy more Rafale, It is clear from start for most experts and even the IAF brass that it is either one or other. The IAF brass knows that Light itnerceptor like MiG-21 cannot be replaced by Rafale, the missions are different. Rafale is not an interceptor further the cost of buying, using and maintaining are different. Thus MiG-21 should be replaced by another single engine plane. IAF first tried to do that with Mirage 2000 to start with, Rather IAF went into the game knowing it was the expert, but now realise that they can suggest but not decide what to buy. Thus buying of Tejas will automatically kill the want of Rafale, because then as the air force chief says we shall have planes in each weight category unless they make a special Mediuum Medium MRCA category to zero in on Rafale. and say we need MMMRCA.
- Nobody's here knows the real price of the deal.... and what kind or TOT and real offset and nature of support needed.
So let's see what happend.
There is not going to be ToT and the offsets would be abt 50% but ONLY IF THE DEAL HAPPENS. At the price of roughly US$ 230 million a pop, I dont think the GoI will risk to buy Rafale when 5th gen PAKFA is available at much cheaper rate and yes, both planes will come around same time With more than 100 Tejas Mk1 ordered, the Rafale will be one of the story that the french will be able to say about the cake baked but could not be eaten.
If India don't want Rafale, it's a pity, but not the end of the world. Others customers arrived soon, and are able to clinch until some month.
End of the story.
Surely it is not the end of the world, French can try and sell to other customers, but the only customers who can pay the price are the ones from Middle east, And in a way they are the countries who are passively supporting IS.. Anyway that is another issue and that is political, that is for some other topic.
One thing is fact that Tejas are coming to IAF in numbers and with more Tejas taken in that diminishes the chances of Rafale. After all even the Defence minister of India said that MiG-21 cannot be replaced by Rafales and now its question of what will replace the MIGs and the answer is TEJAS