Know Your 'Rafale'

[Yusuf]

May be the additional 63 will placed on the IAC 2 planned to Service by 2020

I dont think so. Right at the time of placing the RFP it was being said the order could go up to 200. IAF has to reach the goal of 45 squadrons in the near future and go up into 60 plus in the long term as India grows and its needs increse.

 

[BangersAndMash]

All this MMRCA, Rafale talk is not worth the paper it's written on! In India's case seeing is believing! You might as well lock this thread until the birds are in IAF's hands, then re-open it! Otherwise, it's just boring!

(Just saying!)

 

[hello_10]

"Rafale F3+" was the most favorable candidate for M-MRCA, but its also true that IAF is paying a price more than even PAK FA, the 5th generation aircraft........

with that, enough money gotto be invested in making infrastructure, training etc too, so its wise to have 63 more when its production line gets matured. but French side does understand that they have to make their arm worth enough for the price being placed on the table, with offering the most advanced version of it. I even favored partnership of India with this project as we do know that Rafale has only one, and very big customer, and its India, (except one small order they got from Switzerland, if I remember. while Brazil may find it hard to refuse Super Hornet.) :thumb:

 

[p2prada]

There is nothing new in the above news, everyone knows the option was already there. However, it will be atleast 2022 before 126 Rafales are inducted. Till then Tejas MK2 would be churning out of assembly line like anything. There would be no advantage in ordering more Rafales after that because the MMRCA program was basically started to meet our shortage or aircraft. By 2022 this shortage will have largely or wholly disappeared and if it exists, we can simply produce more LCAs. Also all the Technology that Rafale will bring will have already been given to us by Dassault. So, ordering more Rafales doesn't make any sense.

Well, at the time we thought IAF will retain at least 40 Mig-27s until 2022 at least. But FGFA has been delayed by 2 years, Mig-27s are going out by 2017 and Tejas Mk2's production may go well past 2022 (because there could be two extra years used for the new engine to be fitted).

Also we do not know who will receive the contract for the follow on orders. For eg: the orders for 42 MKIs was fought for (by HAL and Sukhoi). So, with timeline in mind, the 63 Rafales may be manufactured by Dassault in France (maybe as KDs and assembly in HAL) apart from the 18 flyaway. That would mean at least 81 Rafales (KD or full manufacture) may be made in France followed by 108 (combination of KDs and indigenous manufacture) by HAL, with most of them being assembled in India.

Seems pretty win-win for both countries. IAF gets to arrest the Mig-27 losses and FGFA / Mk2 delays with the 63 follow on orders. So, at least squadron strength is intact.

 

[p2prada]

May be the additional 63 will placed on the IAC 2 planned to Service by 2020

IAF

IN

IA

These are three different wings people!!!

There are rules to be followed, protocols to be adhered to, jurisdictions to be maintained.

 

[Armand2REP]

There is nothing new in the above news, everyone knows the option was already there. However, it will be atleast 2022 before 126 Rafales are inducted. Till then Tejas MK2 would be churning out of assembly line like anything. There would be no advantage in ordering more Rafales after that because the MMRCA program was basically started to meet our shortage or aircraft. By 2022 this shortage will have largely or wholly disappeared and if it exists, we can simply produce more LCAs. Also all the Technology that Rafale will bring will have already been given to us by Dassault. So, ordering more Rafales doesn't make any sense.

What is new is that India is negotiating even further orders. They feel if they can convince a lifetime purchase of Rafale, they are entitled to a discount. Price is always the issue. If the US can sell junk F-16s to Morocco providing half the cost in military aid to buy them, we should offer something too. It is the only way to make progress in this market.

 

[Defcon 1]

Well, at the time we thought IAF will retain at least 40 Mig-27s until 2022 at least. But FGFA has been delayed by 2 years, Mig-27s are going out by 2017 and Tejas Mk2's production may go well past 2022 (because there could be two extra years used for the new engine to be fitted).

Also we do not know who will receive the contract for the follow on orders. For eg: the orders for 42 MKIs was fought for (by HAL and Sukhoi). So, with timeline in mind, the 63 Rafales may be manufactured by Dassault in France (maybe as KDs and assembly in HAL) apart from the 18 flyaway. That would mean at least 81 Rafales (KD or full manufacture) may be made in France followed by 108 (combination of KDs and indigenous manufacture) by HAL, with most of them being assembled in India.

Seems pretty win-win for both countries. IAF gets to arrest the Mig-27 losses and FGFA / Mk2 delays with the 63 follow on orders. So, at least squadron strength is intact.

and that will decrease our indigenous production orders of MK2 and FGFA. The airforce has lived under strength force for many years, it can live for a few more, once are able to establish a set of companies, with technological capabilities to match western nations, it will keep bearing fruits always. Large orders of MK2 and FGFA are necessary in order to make these products economically viable.

Lets consider the issue objectively. Ideally, Su35 would have made a better choice for MMRCA than Rafale, we brought Rafale because it brought new technology to India. Now once we get 126, we already have the tech, what good is Rafale now?

Also, where did you read that Mig27s are going by 2017, it was Mig21s.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

What is new is that India is negotiating even further orders. They feel if they can convince a lifetime purchase of Rafale, they are entitled to a discount. Price is always the issue. If the US can sell junk F-16s to Morocco providing half the cost in military aid to buy them, we should offer something too. It is the only way to make progress in this market.

Price yes, but I suspect something else on offer because on paper the price shouln't reduce. May be all wrapped up without any details out.

A good decision!

 

[Armand2REP]

Price yes, but I suspect something else on offer because on paper the price shouln't reduce. May be all wrapped up without any details out.

A good decision!

Yes, we have a penchant for making package deals. It is a failing IMO.

 

[Defcon 1]

Also, where did you read that Mig27s are going by 2017, it was Mig21s.

Sorry about this last sentence, I forgot about that news.

 

[hello_10]

What is new is that India is negotiating even further orders. They feel if they can convince a lifetime purchase of Rafale, they are entitled to a discount. Price is always the issue. If the US can sell junk F-16s to Morocco providing half the cost in military aid to buy them, we should offer something too. It is the only way to make progress in this market.

good thought, specially when you have only one door for Rafale, with the facts that its future upgrades won't be possible without a big buyer like India, definitely not ....... you do know that once India buy Rafale, they will be worried for its future upgrades too, same as France. so whether by willingness or unwillingness, India will have to keep pushing for its future upgrades too this way, no matter how much will it cost in future. as once its inducted in IAF, India along with France, will have to live with bird

so i find, even providing military aid to get this deal done, 'anyhow', would definitely guarantee survival of this bird in future, even if French economy itself gets broken down due to high debt etc..... any news about downgrade by Credit Agencies due to high fiscal deficit and over 100% debt to GDP of France etc???? :ranger:

 

[p2prada]

and that will decrease our indigenous production orders of MK2 and FGFA. The airforce has lived under strength force for many years, it can live for a few more, once are able to establish a set of companies, with technological capabilities to match western nations, it will keep bearing fruits always. Large orders of MK2 and FGFA are necessary in order to make these products economically viable.

Not necessary that these aircraft will be affected. There are still a large number of Mig-21s and Mig-27s to be replaced. After that we need to replace Jaguars, Mirage-2000s and Mig-29s. That's over 400 aircraft in 2 decades.

Lets consider the issue objectively. Ideally, Su35 would have made a better choice for MMRCA than Rafale, we brought Rafale because it brought new technology to India. Now once we get 126, we already have the tech, what good is Rafale now?

Su-35 isn't as good a strike fighter as the Rafale is. Can't replace Mig-27s with an air to air rigged fighter. We will end up paying double money for the same aircraft when we are already getting the Super MKIs from 2015.

We are not buying just technology with Rafale. That is the benefit for the industry. The main and still the most important point for MRCA was to arrest squadron shortfall, nothing more, nothing less. With Mig-27s being phased out early and delays with FGFA/Tejas Mk2 would mean IAF won't have full squadron strength even in 2025.

Just count the number of potential aircraft losses here. 2 squadron of Mig-27s, at least 2 squadrons of FGFA and 2-4 squadrons of LCA Mk2 delayed. The 3 squadrons of extra Rafales are to cut down the shortfall and still achieve full squadron strength by 2022. At least that seems to be the plan.

Getting the 63 Rafales now would mean it won't get unnecessarily expensive later on too. That would save a lot more money, than simply waiting it out and paying double half a decade later.

 

[p2prada]

good thought, specially when you have only one door for Rafale, with the facts that its future upgrades won't be possible without a big buyer like India, definitely not .......

The more the number of Rafales sold. The more is the benefit for India.

Hope they clinch the UAE and Brazil deals quickly. Qatar and Kuwait will fall in line after that. The French armed forces will be allowed to increase their Rafale numbers as well.

 

[Defcon 1]

Not necessary that these aircraft will be affected. There are still a large number of Mig-21s and Mig-27s to be replaced. After that we need to replace Jaguars, Mirage-2000s and Mig-29s. That's over 400 aircraft in 2 decades.



Su-35 isn't as good a strike fighter as the Rafale is. Can't replace Mig-27s with an air to air rigged fighter. We will end up paying double money for the same aircraft when we are already getting the Super MKIs from 2015.

We are not buying just technology with Rafale. That is the benefit for the industry. The main and still the most important point for MRCA was to arrest squadron shortfall, nothing more, nothing less. With Mig-27s being phased out early and delays with FGFA/Tejas Mk2 would mean IAF won't have full squadron strength even in 2025.

Just count the number of potential aircraft losses here. 2 squadron of Mig-27s, at least 2 squadrons of FGFA and 2-4 squadrons of LCA Mk2 delayed. The 3 squadrons of extra Rafales are to cut down the shortfall and still achieve full squadron strength by 2022. At least that seems to be the plan.

Getting the 63 Rafales now would mean it won't get unnecessarily expensive later on too. That would save a lot more money, than simply waiting it out and paying double half a decade later.

Lets consider all points one by one.

1. Rafale is the last plane India is buying from foreign, all the follow ons will be JVs/Indian. Any increase in number of Rafales will ultimately hurt an Indian plane.

2. I do not buy that Rafale was selected because it is a better strike fighter, if that was so, EFT would not have probably made the final cut(given its performance in Libyan war)

3. If Sukhoi-35 is as expensive as you say, we could have simply ordered more MKIs, that would have been quicker as well(and would have brought added advantage of lower cost of later orders due to high amount of orders, advantages coming due to operating lesser kinds of aircraft).

4. Buying more MKI would have benefitted the industry more since MKI is being manufactured in India, while Rafale will just be assembled.

5. You seem to have the impression that if we don't order more Rafales now, we will have to do it sometime later. I don't understand what makes you think so.

 

[Anoop Sajwan]

and that will decrease our indigenous production orders of MK2 and FGFA. The airforce has lived under strength force for many years, it can live for a few more, once are able to establish a set of companies, with technological capabilities to match western nations, it will keep bearing fruits always. Large orders of MK2 and FGFA are necessary in order to make these products economically viable.

Lets consider the issue objectively. Ideally, Su35 would have made a better choice for MMRCA than Rafale, we brought Rafale because it brought new technology to India. Now once we get 126, we already have the tech, what good is Rafale now?

Also, where did you read that Mig27s are going by 2017, it was Mig21s.

Well you will surprised but mig27 are going to replace by 2017 & bison will serve afterward.:thumb:

 

[p2prada]

Lets consider all points one by one.

1. Rafale is the last plane India is buying from foreign, all the follow ons will be JVs/Indian. Any increase in number of Rafales will ultimately hurt an Indian plane.

No it won't. There are no major competing aircraft in the same timeline as the Rafale. Rafale is a medium weight aircraft. LCA is light while FGFA is heavy. Meaning all three aircraft types are catered for. AMCA's development and production may happen a decade after Rafale production stops, more or less. So no competition there.

2. I do not buy that Rafale was selected because it is a better strike fighter, if that was so, EFT would not have probably made the final cut(given its performance in Libyan war)

Rafales performance in Libya was first class. Typhoons did nothing in Libya except air patrols. It was the Tornados that did the bombing in Libya for the British.

3. If Sukhoi-35 is as expensive as you say, we could have simply ordered more MKIs, that would have been quicker as well(and would have brought added advantage of lower cost of later orders due to high amount of orders, advantages coming due to operating lesser kinds of aircraft).

I am not saying Su-35 is expensive. I am saying we will end up paying twice for the same class of aircraft. Like buying Gripen and LCA all at once. More MKIs would have helped, but MKIs production is booked until 2018. So, there was no scope for buying more MKIs.

4. Buying more MKI would have benefitted the industry more since MKI is being manufactured in India, while Rafale will just be assembled.

Rafale will be fully manufactured in India. It should follow MKIs production style. SKDs followed by CKDs followed by full indigenous manufacture from imported raw materials while making spares using our own raw materials.

5. You seem to have the impression that if we don't order more Rafales now, we will have to do it sometime later. I don't understand what makes you think so.

We are talking about a squadron shortfall of 150-200 aircraft as of today and will be followed by a replacement program for 200-300 Mig-27s and Mig-21s by 2017. Meaning by 2017, IAF will be short by over 400 aircraft if we don't add the remaining MKIs to be produced. Rafales are expected to fulfill at least half that demand followed by FGFA and LCA. After that we will need to replace another 250 aircraft by 2030, just to maintain the squadrons number to 42 which AMCA and FGFA are expected to cover.

We are at 34 squadrons today (down by 8 from original 42) and will be down by another 12 squadrons by 2017. That's something like 20 squadrons that need to be replaced by 2017. Of that we are getting only 6 squadrons (126) of Rafale. That followed by two Tejas Mk1 squadrons, if HAL gets its act together and starts serial manufacture of LCA, and 4 squadrons of Tejas Mk2, if ADA gets its act together and develops it in time. That's asking a lot and we may still end up being short by one or two squadrons even if LCA Mk2 is inducted in time by 2022.

 

[Defcon 1]

No it won't. There are no major competing aircraft in the same timeline as the Rafale. Rafale is a medium weight aircraft. LCA is light while FGFA is heavy. Meaning all three aircraft types are catered for. AMCA's development and production may happen a decade after Rafale production stops, more or less. So no competition there.

I don't understand why can't we change the ratio of medium to heavy class fighters in IAF? Did we have a 200 heavy class fighters before Su30 MKI? Why can't we have some more? If we can change this ratio, then there will be competition, won't you agree?

Rafales performance in Libya was first class. Typhoons did nothing in Libya except air patrols. It was the Tornados that did the bombing in Libya for the British.

Exactly my point. Still Typhoon made the final cut for MMRCA. That means it met all the IAF's requirement and was rejected on the basis of economics. If IAF wanted a strike fighter F18 was a better candidate than EFT.

I am not saying Su-35 is expensive. I am saying we will end up paying twice for the same class of aircraft. Like buying Gripen and LCA all at once. More MKIs would have helped, but MKIs production is booked until 2018. So, there was no scope for buying more MKIs.

Look at the scenario proposed by you. You want the additional 63 Rafales to bought directly from Russia, if buying directly from France is a good idea, why not buying directly from Russia.

Rafale will be fully manufactured in India. It should follow MKIs production style. SKDs followed by CKDs followed by full indigenous manufacture from imported raw materials while making spares using our own raw materials.

There is no source that Rafale will be manufactured in India. All the statements come down only to the CKDs and stop there. No manufacturing, only assembling.

We are talking about a squadron shortfall of 150-200 aircraft as of today and will be followed by a replacement program for 200-300 Mig-27s and Mig-21s by 2017. Meaning by 2017, IAF will be short by over 400 aircraft if we don't add the remaining MKIs to be produced. Rafales are expected to fulfill at least half that demand followed by FGFA and LCA. After that we will need to replace another 250 aircraft by 2030, just to maintain the squadrons number to 42 which AMCA and FGFA are expected to cover.

We are at 34 squadrons today (down by 8 from original 42) and will be down by another 12 squadrons by 2017. That's something like 20 squadrons that need to be replaced by 2017. Of that we are getting only 6 squadrons (126) of Rafale. That followed by two Tejas Mk1 squadrons, if HAL gets its act together and starts serial manufacture of LCA, and 4 squadrons of Tejas Mk2, if ADA gets its act together and develops it in time. That's asking a lot and we may still end up being short by one or two squadrons even if LCA Mk2 is inducted in time by 2022.

I do not deny the problem of shortage of aircraft. What I am saying is that, buying MKI directly from Russia is better when compared to buying Rafale from France. My personal opinion, however is still that IAF should wait for a few more years and fill the squadron strength with indigenous planes.

 

[Anoop Sajwan]

I don't understand why can't we change the ratio of medium to heavy class fighters in IAF? Did we have a 200 heavy class fighters before Su30 MKI? Why can't we have some more? If we can change this ratio, then there will be competition, won't you agree?

Ratio already changed. We put the order of 270 MKI & 100 FGFA/PAKFA will join till 2025. So half of our fighter are heavy weight, figure will be much more drastic after that.

Exactly my point. Still Typhoon made the final cut for MMRCA. That means it met all the IAF's requirement and was rejected on the basis of economics. If IAF wanted a strike fighter F18 was a better candidate than EFT.

Again same f18e is also too heavy & much more than that Rafales omnirole capability that make it true multirole.

 

[p2prada]

I don't understand why can't we change the ratio of medium to heavy class fighters in IAF? Did we have a 200 heavy class fighters before Su30 MKI? Why can't we have some more? If we can change this ratio, then there will be competition, won't you agree?

270 MKIs and followed by 144 (maybe 214) FGFAs and this may only be the initial numbers. That's 400-500 heavy fighters. Already more than half the sanctioned fleet there.

Exactly my point. Still Typhoon made the final cut for MMRCA. That means it met all the IAF's requirement and was rejected on the basis of economics. If IAF wanted a strike fighter F18 was a better candidate than EFT.

EF did make the cut, but IAF has openly said they prefer the Rafale to any other. This was right from the start. Plenty of speculations from Americans like Ashley Tellis where they claim the MRCA tender was rigged from the start to go to Rafale. During the time trials for F-16s engine change, it was noticed that the F-16 got a very low score because the trolley that carried the engine had some malfunciton which delayed the change from happening. The IAF did not allow a retry even if though it was a freak accident.

Including the fact that the IAF shortlisted the most expensive MRCA, EF, with Rafale to ensure there would be only one guaranteed winner.

Look at the scenario proposed by you. You want the additional 63 Rafales to bought directly from Russia, if buying directly from France is a good idea, why not buying directly from Russia.

Won't make sense to induct FGFA and MKIs in parallel. Rather we can have them manufacture FGFA in India as well as Russia, if requirement is there.

Dassault's assembly line in France is waiting to churn more Rafales. We can get there first before more export orders from other countries come. Irkut's isn't.

There is no source that Rafale will be manufactured in India. All the statements come down only to the CKDs and stop there. No manufacturing, only assembling.

Wait and watch. All I can say.

If it was only assembly then there wouldn't be such a massive requirement for ToT or industrial partnership. Anybody can assemble.

I do not deny the problem of shortage of aircraft. What I am saying is that, buying MKI directly from Russia is better when compared to buying Rafale from France. My personal opinion, however is still that IAF should wait for a few more years and fill the squadron strength with indigenous planes.

Their assembly plants are delivering SMs to VVS until 2016, 60 ordered to date. They are competing for follow on orders from Malaysia and will have to keep the plant freed up after 2016-17. So, there is no scope for exports to India.

No idea what would happen to the plant if they lose the Malaysia deal. But the timeline won't match India's plans because HAL would be free the next year. Maybe there is a chance IAF may order a follow on to the 42 Super MKIs in order to offset the 2 year FGFA delay.

You can say, as of today, both HAL and Irkut are packed with orders up to at least 2017.

 

[arya]

till now no paper singed everything is in air , are we waiting for wort thing