Truth is, the Army is not worried, they know they have to downsize and they are doing it.
The biggest proof of this was Agniveer launch. You would have expected that with a 4 year service term and 0 recruitment for 3 years prior, they would recruit not just the usual 60,000 but maybe twice or thrice that to "make up the numbers". Yet, the Army only recruited 40,000, that should tell you all you need to know - there is no shortfall and the effort is now to cut down not make up the numbers.
You can project this on your own like the table below.
Year | Recruitment | Retirements | Assumed force size |
2019 | 60,000 | 60,000 | 12,60,000 |
2020 | 0 | 60,000 | 12,00,000 |
2021 | 0 | 60,000 | 11,40,000 |
2022 | 0 | 60,000 | 10,80,000 |
2023 | 40,000 | 60,000 | 10,60,000 |
2024 | 40,000 | 60,000 | 10,40,000 (today's size) |
2025 | 40,000 | 60,000 | 10,20,000 |
2026 | 40,000 | 60,000 | 10,00,000 |
2027 | 40,000 | 80,000*
(20,000 from 2023 Agniveer batch) | 9,60,000 |
* Assuming 50% of Agniveers will be retained based on news reports that the 25% one was too drastic.
This means more money for buying new equipment, less people to buy equipment for. Its good not bad imo.