India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021 onwards)

[Crazywithmath]

 

[ezsasa]

Right , so they're poised to carry on something spectacular to gain eyeballs. We'd have to adjust our tactics accordingly. Pulwama was about what our redlines were.

Subsequently through chatter on SM , I recall 2-3 instances where PA informed their counterparts about similar operations being planned which we were able to thwart.

Looks like Hafiz wants us on the negotiation table & he's decided brinkmanship is the way to get it . Let's see how the situation pans out

this is not brinkmanship, the jihadi masters are testing waters on whether reduced political mandate means reduced intent. in other words, they are probably probing for political weakness. what would the paki jernails be reading to get news on current modi regime, the usual AL-JAZEERA, the Hindu, the wire, NYT, wapo, BBC. all of them are saying the same thing, modi has been cut to size, he has a weakened mandate.

ideally response should be an act which loudly proclaims, political resolve of GoI against terrorism remains the same.

 

[AnantS]

Yes I remember him. I also remember excruciatingly long deployments where we lost tons of men while deploying and later extracting men. Heck there were fire/blasts in convoys going to deployment . Remember this was second time. Gen Padnambhan was excellent Genera.l But really changes needed aftermath of Kargil are pending till now. I measure General's performance in modernization of army or bringing paradigm shift in Army thinking. Last such Gen was Gen Sundarji.

 

[AnantS]

this is not brinkmanship, the jihadi masters are testing waters on whether reduced political mandate means reduced intent. in other words, they are probably probing for political weakness. what would the paki jernails be reading to get news on current modi regime, the usual AL-JAZEERA, the Hindu, the wire, NYT, wapo, BBC. all of them are saying the same thing, modi has been cut to size, he has a weakened mandate.

ideally response should be an act which loudly proclaims, political resolve of GoI against terrorism remains the same.

EXactly!!!! And remember response to Jehadi and Chinese need to be seen by wide audience & heard loudly. Otherwise they are very well adept to hide any harm done to them.

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[Inderjeet Singh]

x.com

x.com

 

[Azaad]

this is not brinkmanship, the jihadi masters are testing waters on whether reduced political mandate means reduced intent. in other words, they are probably probing for political weakness. what would the paki jernails be reading to get news on current modi regime, the usual AL-JAZEERA, the Hindu, the wire, NYT, wapo, BBC. all of them are saying the same thing, modi has been cut to size, he has a weakened mandate.

ideally response should be an act which loudly proclaims, political resolve of GoI against terrorism remains the same.

Had what you're proposing been the case , it'd have been a one off event with the gunning down of innocent civilians & there'd be a reprieve before the next outrage which'd be separated by a considerable interval .

Clearly that incident was part of a series of many in quick succession as events unfolding seem to suggest.

Not ruling out what you're stating as PA has often miscalculated before. But I think there's a larger game afoot.

 

[Truthsoldier]

Does anybody know why is Delhi so keen on maintaining ceasefire even to its own peril ? Why aren't we blasting the heads of Pakistan army officer corps after all the attacks on forces in last few yrs? Why is Delhi so indifferent to the loss of lives?

 

[AnantS]

To begin with , this isn't a war . This is an insurgency. Once you've decided on the description you can proceed with seeking solutions to the problems at hand . This is important as ONLY once the differentiation is established can you determine your policies.

The reasoning is as simple as the common phrase of wrestling a pig eventually going over to the other extreme on the same spectrum best exemplified by the Hindi phrase - Hum toh doobe sanam ... which need not be mandatory .

The former describes the prevalent mindset of the PA. Our aggressive responses IN THE CONVENTIONAL DOMAIN CONSISTENTLY , if we go down that road , to which they'd have no counter will gradually get them to the latter Hindi phrase as a state of mind .

Our strategy in the recent past has been to emphasize covert operations against the Paxtani establishment. Every now & then they'd come up with a victory on our soil. We need to adjust our tactics accordingly. For further perspective focus on the daily toll of casualties , the PA & their para militaries are facing in the Paxtani thread.

As far as the PA targeting our senior officers go , let's not forget that our approach & our capabilities along with our economy & standing in the comity of nations was different in the 1990s & early 2000s to what it is today . This also includes our political leadership across parties & the pathetic responses they came up with then which was a reflection of all the variables described above .

The objective was always for us to emphasize economic growth & not become caught up in tit for tat responses to the PA. The downside was we'd have to brace for casualties. The issue then is how much was too much . The parliament attack , the attack on the J&K assembly , the attacks on our Corps Command resulting in casualties of some very senior officers came around the same time & resulted in Operation Parakram.

While that didn't exactly solve our problems , it brought about a tenous peace & more importantly for us - time , which we spent fencing the borders. How much has that contributed to lowering infiltration can't be quantified ! But that's another example of diplomacy although many here would scoff at it . .

Meanwhile the question to be asked is how did Paxtan utilise that time period ? Did they improve their lot ? If yes how did land up where they are today. See , one can grow ones military prowess all one can , it's the economic standing which determines how far that'd take ones military. A good example of this is China.

Paxtan would continue doing what it did & we'd continue with our responses to them - some in the public domain , the rest which would comprise the majority of the response would be mostly in the shadows.

To conclude , find me a similar situation in the past decade of the PA INTENTIONALLY targeting our senior officers .

Sigh.. mate you wrote a very long para. I am at work cant give you exact answer. Our officers were targeted by Tangos plenty of times. Infact even in peaceful areas eg: Col Honey Bakshi, Gen Vaidya etc.

To repeat what I said in previous answer to ezsasa, Pakistan and entities like it need forceful reprisal. It wont change there intention of harming us, but it does diminishes their strength and will power enough to give you required peaceful period for growth spurt.

You forget that Pakistan's core success mantra has been to be somebody's bitch. Let me state that today if Pakistan is not able to secure benefits from Chinese, it shall sell of itself to US again to be used itself against China. Their idea is to get the next Baksheesh for their "Laskhar" to act against us. So killing off random Jeehardi abduls have not effect on them. From their POV: You are simply improving their unemployability index. You are Jeehardis operate on the dictum hum chahe oobey na doobey .. tujhey ley doobenge . Its not question of they will go into that mode. They have always operated in that mode. Thats why pakistan fanned insurgency all over India which targetted common people, higher up politicians etc.

If they are not repeating 80-90 on us today.. its not out of favor but its because of lack of capability. When snake is injured strike... If Pakistan is having its tempo low.. go GIVE BACK to them along with interest! We can philosophize later.. One thing I understood scimalsi are Raktabija asura... You cant rest & spare even one instance.

 

[daya]

Does anybody know why is Delhi so keen on maintaining ceasefire even to its own peril ? Why aren't we blasting the heads of Pakistan army officer corps after all the attacks on forces in last few yrs? Why is Delhi so indifferent to the loss of lives?

So simple, don't have will power..

 

[ezsasa]

Does anybody know why is Delhi so keen on maintaining ceasefire even to its own peril ? Why aren't we blasting the heads of Pakistan army officer corps after all the attacks on forces in last few yrs? Why is Delhi so indifferent to the loss of lives?

give your ideas on building convergence between economy; military strength; internal cohesion; governance; human capital; science & technology; knowledge and information; geography and natural resources; foreign policy and diplomacy; and, national will and leadership.

folks who want to indulge in these scenarios, also will have give options/ideas on building consensus with in other silos of comprehensive national power. don't leave it at, it's not my job, it's gormint's job.

the solution has to work in it's entirety, not just in silos.

when war happens, it's the entire nation that is going to war, not just the army or military component of the nation.
=====
What is the concept of Comprehensive National Power (CPN), and where does India stand in terms of CPN ranking?

There are many definitions of Comprehensive National Power (CNP). As per one of the more acceptable definitions, CNP is "comprehensive capability of a country to pursue its strategic objectives by taking the necessary actions internationally". It can also be defined as "degree of ability to mobilize and utilize strategic resources of a country to realize national objectives." It provides an intrinsic analytical tool for identifying gaps and boundaries of national power and extrinsically balances interests in the international relations loop. Although there are different factors considered by different people to measure CNP, the most commonly accepted factors are: economy; military strength; internal cohesion; governance; human capital; science & technology; knowledge and information; geography and natural resources; foreign policy and diplomacy; and, national will and leadership. All these factors are consequential in denoting the power of a nation state in the present environment.

One of the first studies for measuring Comprehensive Index of Power was attempted by an American named Ray Cline in 1977. Subsequently it was modified by the Chinese think tanks, like China Academy of Social Sciences and Academy of Military Sciences. In India, the NSCS has also been publishing National Security Index from time to time.

The respective positions of various countries in all these studies vary. Therefore, it is not possible to state exactly the position of India in CNP index. However, it is commonly agreed that India is presently behind USA, China, Russia, Japan and Germany but has the potential to improve its position by overtaking the last three in about a decade or so. It will of course depend on taking adequate measures to fill the gaps and make course correction in policy implementation.

Vipin asked: What is the concept of Comprehensive National Power (CPN), and where does India stand in terms of CPN ranking? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Rumel Dahiya replies: There are many definitions of Comprehensive National Power (CNP). As per one of the more acceptable definitions, CNP is "comprehensive capability of a country to pursue its strategic objectives by taking the necessary actions internationally". It can also be defined as...

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[mokoman]

Right , so they're poised to carry on something spectacular to gain eyeballs. We'd have to adjust our tactics accordingly. Pulwama was about what our redlines were.

Subsequently through chatter on SM , I recall 2-3 instances where PA informed their counterparts about similar operations being planned which we were able to thwart.

Looks like Hafiz wants us on the negotiation table & he's decided brinkmanship is the way to get it . Let's see how the situation pans out

brinkmanship wont be possible when leader on one side is busy doing yoga

if what they want is confrontation , then these attacks will flop , just like their economy .

 

[Crazywithmath]

Does anybody know why is Delhi so keen on maintaining ceasefire

To protect the jawans.

 

[mokoman]

 

[Azaad]

brinkmanship wont be possible when leader on one side is busy doing yoga

if what they want is confrontation , then these attacks will flop , just like their economy .

If Fauji Foundation keeps up the tempo , they'd get their wish fulfilled.

To put in Bombay Hindi - Modi apni hoshiyari xhodne gaya & phass gaya.

As I've pointed out earlier the CI grid in Kashmir is intact while in Jammu it's weakened coz of redeployment on the LAC. He can't re redeploy them back without opening up a hole on the LAC .

Why ? Coz the IA is down more than 2 lakh personnel coz of non recruitment during COVID. Baniya here was saving money to spend on infrastructure & his other pet projects .

He also thinks or has been advised the Chinese won't wage anything beyond a border war which he's bought lock stock & barrel .

Hence the IA top brass knows there's little they can do to stem the losses. Whatever incremental changes they can bring about to cut down casualties thru procurement of various gears , they aren't expediting for reasons they know best.

So , short of a Pulwama you're not going to get a Balakote as Modi will be disinclined to redraw the red lines for the loss of 10-15 civilians. Does that mean this will go unanswered ? No , not at all.

The SFs may well hop across the border in a few weeks to slit a dozen civilian throats to send the message across but we as in the general public , won't get full confirmation of it or any at all denying us our vicarious pleasure whilst all this would be water down a duck's back as far as PA is concerned.

That's the situation in a nutshell.

 

[ezsasa]

As I've pointed out earlier the CI grid in Kashmir is intact while in Jammu it's weakened coz of redeployment on the LAC. He can't re redeploy them back without opening up a hole on the LAC .

Why ? Coz the IA is down more than 2 lakh personnel coz of non recruitment during COVID. Baniya here was saving money to spend on infrastructure & his other pet projects .

He also thinks or has been advised the Chinese won't wage anything beyond a border war which he's bought lock stock & barrel .

one of the perils of being a transparent society, is that opeds written here are also read by the enemy, irrespective of whether opeds are true or not, the enemy can go ahead presuming it is true and act accordingly.

 

[mokoman]

If Fauji Foundation keeps up the tempo , they'd get their wish fulfilled.

To put in Bombay Hindi - Modi apni hoshiyari xhodne gaya & phass gaya.

As I've pointed out earlier the CI grid in Kashmir is intact while in Jammu it's weakened coz of redeployment on the LAC. He can't re redeploy them back without opening up a hole on the LAC .

Why ? Coz the IA is down more than 2 lakh personnel coz of non recruitment during COVID. Baniya here was saving money to spend on infrastructure & his other pet projects .

He also thinks or has been advised the Chinese won't wage anything beyond a border war which he's bought lock stock & barrel .

Hence the IA top brass knows there's little they can do to stem the losses. Whatever incremental changes they can bring about to cut down casualties thru procurement of various gears , they aren't expediting for reasons they know best.

So , short of a Pulwama you're not going to get a Balakote as Modi will be disinclined to redraw the red lines for the loss of 10-15 civilians. Does that mean this will go unanswered ? No , not at all.

The SFs may well hop across the border in a few weeks to slit a dozen civilian throats to send the message across but we as in the general public , won't get full confirmation of it or any at all denying us our vicarious pleasure whilst all this would be water down a duck's back as far as PA is concerned.

That's the situation in a nutshell.

infiltration at jammu is mostly from IB under the BSF , army redeployment wont have impact there

even in the beheading ambush , there were no redeployment in that sector .

i dont think any big attack will happen this week - there is no grand plan here . this is just pakistan poking us in small doses . i mean u cant stop the jihadi factory - u may not be able to restart it . gotta keep them running .

 

[Azaad]

one of the perils of being a transparent society, is that opeds written here are also read by the enemy, irrespective of whether opeds are true or not, the enemy can go ahead presuming it is true and act accordingly.

Much of the information is pretty much in the public domain. In fact I would be surprised if the Chinese actually pushed PA to do what they've done for if the situation escalates on the LoC with the situation on the LAC seeing the status quo being maintained , it'd become glaringly obvious we're short of personnel for a 2 front scenario.

 

[SKC]

 

[SKC]

tweet are not getting populated?
Something at twitter end?