India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021 onwards)

[FalconZero]

Picture of terrorists who got killed in yesterday rajouri encounter near LoC.
View attachment 99079

Weew another beautiful bastard goes into my collection, add the spoiler tag lad.

We are going to have to be very careful the next few years. The Pakistanis are just about winning in Afghanistan and they are going to be gloating about it. Only a matter of time before they get it into their heads to do something stupid in India.
We haven’t done nearly enough on improving our military situation on the LoC, artillery purchase should be fast tracked. A Pakistan that believes it has defeated the US will be emboldened to do something similar to us. We need to be prepared.

Any Pakistani double speak about how Pakistan will itself be threatened by the Taliban etc is BS being fed to the west. Also anyone in India, if any are that stupid, who believe that we can work a deal with the Taliban is completely mad. We might be able to get a few not in ISI’s picked to occasionally be supportive but they will be in a minority and the Taliban are not going to pick the side of any kafirs, while we may not be as hated as the Americans, let’s not sugar coat this - Modi and the BJP are not going to be the Talibans favourite people. I’m afraid Afghanistan is written off as a country but can be useful for us to keep the Pakistanis occupied, atleast in the non Pashtun parts and with the occasional Pashtun warlord. Will cost us money but it’s doable. We need to stop being muddle headed about this. The Taliban are going to be an uncomfortable reality and we need to quickly work on that while also shoring up our security grid.

We are not in 90s anymore, USA is not a protectorate of pakis anymore. So if they are going to be used along LOC then pakis will be paid back.

Now coming to Taliban alone, I think everyone who is making one-sided comment is wrong, comments like :
> talibanis won
> china and taliban are going to have a honeymoon in the resourceful mines of Afghanistan
> Pakistan now owns Afghanistan and so on ( This one is paki delusion which you were referring too )

From what it seems, taliban wants to be recognised as the legitimate entity and still i refuse to accept the fact that there's only one group or some centralised group of taliban which is being used in every assessment or memes i am seeing so far but overall they have widespread support that's true with tribes haveing their own interests and games.
Taliban if actually wants to sustain its rule in Afghanistan it would require to have cooperation with any friendly entities which means China, India or russia or anyone, especially these countries since they have nothing against them, these are not the countries who bombed them ( except USSR but it was decades ago ). So your point that talks with taliban is futile is not a good suggestion, not doing talks would been giving up the leverage to our enemies.

There are groups of taliban which are proly directly doing the bidding of CIA, remember those reports of USA troops leaving behind US weapon, military vehicles etc. ? It gives possible deniability for CIA ops against likes of china, they can funnel any amount of the weapon and people will think these are old leftover, I don't know why people are not talking about this whole opium angle and what happens to that after USA leaves? Did it become unprofitable or the USA got reliable ground workers?

China will most proly try to indirectly develop relationship and control mines, resources of Afghanistan so on with pakis doing their bidding as they did for USA in the past, this is where pakis will try to play a double/triple game with USA(narcotics and containing china and russia in afg) and China and Taliban, this is where they may negotiate the deal outcome of which will indeed affect how India can operate against talibanis or with talibanis to an extent.

There's also Russian, Iranian angle but for now, no idea what is going to happen with them.

There's lots of ifs-else here, i don't think it's so direct as people are saying out it to be.

Yes, it's certain that we will see some influx of taliban but same can be said for Pakistan too, further attacks in Pakistan and so on.

Also, what are the chances of long lasting civil war with total turmoil, this one seems slim but can be done if as members in the other thread suggestion. Unrionically that would be the best case scenario for USA and other entities except pakis and chinks.
Point being, it's good that we are talking to Taliban, i don't think their influx in POK is going to affect much rather i am of the opinion that pakis may have to pay dearly due to that.
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ps : I wrote it but realised it was too incoherent so didn't post it but later realised that dfi doesn't remove a comment even if you close the tab so sort of i guess it keeps em cached in 'drafts'...so I guess i will post it anyway.

 

[Jimih]

(Anyways according to pakis... Hindus have only 2 caste: brahman & shuddar)

Only One: Hindu Baniyas

 

[Indrajit]

Weew another beautiful bastard goes into my collection, add the spoiler tag lad.



We are not in 90s anymore, USA is not a protectorate of pakis anymore. So if they are going to be used along LOC then pakis will be paid back.

Now coming to Taliban alone, I think everyone who is making one-sided comment is wrong, comments like :
> talibanis won
> china and taliban are going to have a honeymoon in the resourceful mines of Afghanistan
> Pakistan now owns Afghanistan and so on ( This one is paki delusion which you were referring too )

From what it seems, taliban wants to be recognised as the legitimate entity and still i refuse to accept the fact that there's only one group or some centralised group of taliban which is being used in every assessment or memes i am seeing so far but overall they have widespread support that's true with tribes haveing their own interests and games.
Taliban if actually wants to sustain its rule in Afghanistan it would require to have cooperation with any friendly entities which means China, India or russia or anyone, especially these countries since they have nothing against them, these are not the countries who bombed them ( except USSR but it was decades ago ). So your point that talks with taliban is futile is not a good suggestion, not doing talks would been giving up the leverage to our enemies.

There are groups of taliban which are proly directly doing the bidding of CIA, remember those reports of USA troops leaving behind US weapon, military vehicles etc. ? It gives possible deniability for CIA ops against likes of china, they can funnel any amount of the weapon and people will think these are old leftover, I don't know why people are not talking about this whole opium angle and what happens to that after USA leaves? Did it become unprofitable or the USA got reliable ground workers?

China will most proly try to indirectly develop relationship and control mines, resources of Afghanistan so on with pakis doing their bidding as they did for USA in the past, this is where pakis will try to play a double/triple game with USA(narcotics and containing china and russia in afg) and China and Taliban, this is where they may negotiate the deal outcome of which will indeed affect how India can operate against talibanis or with talibanis to an extent.

There's also Russian, Iranian angle but for now, no idea what is going to happen with them.

There's lots of ifs-else here, i don't think it's so direct as people are saying out it to be.

Yes, it's certain that we will see some influx of taliban but same can be said for Pakistan too, further attacks in Pakistan and so on.

Point being, it's good that we are talking to Taliban, i don't think their influx in POK is going to affect much rather i am of the opinion that pakis may have to pay dearly due to that.
----------------------------------------

ps : I wrote it but realised it was too incoherent so didn't post it but later realised that dfi doesn't remove a comment even if you close the tab so sort of i guess it keeps em cached in 'drafts'...so I guess i will post it anyway.

A few points - Pakistani delusions are their problem except when it gets to their head and is directed at us. You are right that isn’t the 90’s and I’m not worried about any major push of Taliban fighters into J&K. That won’t happen and even if they tried, it will just result in a lot of human manure. That’s not my point, it is that the Pakistani delusion will likely go a bit haywire, just like it did in the 90’s. Which means we need to get our deterrence right.

As far as talks with the Taliban goes, I wasn’t suggesting that we shouldn’t do it or it’s absolutely pointless, just that we must be clear headed about what we can achieve there. We need to do what’s necessary but no point in harbouring outlandish hopes.

 

[FalconZero]

A few points - Pakistani delusions are their problem except when it gets to their head and is directed at us. You are right that isn’t the 90’s and I’m not worried about any major push of Taliban fighters into J&K. That won’t happen and even if they tried, it will just result in a lot of human manure. That’s not my point, it is that the Pakistani delusion will likely go a bit haywire, just like it did in the 90’s. Which means we need to get our deterrence right.

Fair but think about it, that could be the best thing that can happen ngl. Pakis are under massive debt with economy in shitters and grey list. If they even remotely try any such g*ndmasti, it is going to blow up on their faces. It would be the perfect opportunity to cripple them forever, no one is going to come to their support, not even their iron biradars, this time maybe not even USA will try to do anything about them.

As far as talks with the Taliban goes, I wasn’t suggesting that we shouldn’t do it or it’s absolutely pointless, just that we must be clear headed about what we can achieve there. We need to do what’s necessary but no point in harbouring outlandish hopes.

There are no direct confirmation that we are having any dialogue or relation with Taliban officially, unofficially everyone is aware that we are doing that so i guess that takes care of that. It's not official for a reason cuz talks may result in nothing...

 

[hit&run]

A few points - Pakistani delusions are their problem except when it gets to their head and is directed at us. You are right that isn’t the 90’s and I’m not worried about any major push of Taliban fighters into J&K. That won’t happen and even if they tried, it will just result in a lot of human manure. That’s not my point, it is that the Pakistani delusion will likely go a bit haywire, just like it did in the 90’s. Which means we need to get our deterrence right.

As far as talks with the Taliban goes, I wasn’t suggesting that we shouldn’t do it or it’s absolutely pointless, just that we must be clear headed about what we can achieve there. We need to do what’s necessary but no point in harbouring outlandish hopes.

Pakistan gaining strategic depth back in Afghanistan means they can run back, hide their terror assets and start harming our missions more freely. Your fears therefore are quite accurate and we must be watchful because Pakistani will start getting new ideas in their heads.

On the flip side with nationalist goverment in place one part of my heart is saying that Pakistan should try a new misadventure so that we can go beserk. But obviously risks are too high and reaction of our government is very hard to predict.

 

[Indrajit]

Also, Taliban is expanding far too quickly. Most of these newly captured areas would be lightly defended, and would fall quickly if there is a counter offensive.. But, at the end of the day, it comes to morale. The Afghan armed forces are well equipped to take on the Taliban. But, do the soldiers think that the Kabul Government is an entity and idea, worth dying for, is another question..

Not likely to be a counter offensive, the Afghan army simply doesn’t have the spirit even if they are better equipped. Morale is very low and the government is tainted with American contact. Still some areas will likely see some fight and we still have to see how the Americans react to a Taliban surge. Will be politically damaging to Biden and the democrats if the visuals and commentary are about an complete American defeat. It will be on Biden’s head and will taint his presidency. So, we will have to wait and see on that.

 

[another_armchair]

If Afghan Army decides to dig in, where do they get their supplies from?

Do they have enough ammo, vehicles etc to continue fighting the Taliban which will get its steady supply from Pakistan, Ummah and possibly China?

I don't think they do which is why most of ANA has quietly ceded territory to the Tallis and left space. What good is fighting spirit if your supplies get exhausted within a few days of intense fighting?

I wonder what discussions we are holding with the Taliban. They are largely regarded as ISI puppets and do their bidding if it suits them. What are we negotiating?

 

[Indrajit]

Pakistan gaining strategic depth back in Afghanistan means they can run back, hide their terror assets and start harming our missions more freely. Your fears therefore are quite accurate and we must be watchful because Pakistani will start getting new ideas in their heads.

An important point made by you, one I meant to highlight but missed. With Afghanistan available, almost all terrorist camps will shift there and be pretty much unhindered. The flip side is that the Americans may feel less inhibited to target Pakistan in international forums. Pakistan’s great trick was in running with the hares and hunting with the hounds simultaneously. That may no longer be on the table. Early days still and I prefer being cautious, we will have to wait and watch.

 

[Indrajit]

If Afghan Army decides to dig in, where do they get their supplies from?

Do they have enough ammo, vehicles etc to continue fighting the Taliban which will get its steady supply from Pakistan, Ummah and possibly China?

I don't think they do which is why most of ANA has quietly ceded territory to the Tallis and left space. What good is fighting spirit if your supplies get exhausted within a few days of intense fighting?

I wonder what discussions we are holding with the Taliban. They are largely regarded as ISI puppets and do their bidding if it suits them. What are we negotiating?

The Afghan army is not short of ammo, just short of fighting spirit except for some small groups.

 

[Jimih]

If Afghan Army decides to dig in, where do they get their supplies from?

Do they have enough ammo, vehicles etc to continue fighting the Taliban which will get its steady supply from Pakistan, Ummah and possibly China?

I don't think they do which is why most of ANA has quietly ceded territory to the Tallis and left space. What good is fighting spirit if your supplies get exhausted within a few days of intense fighting?

I wonder what discussions we are holding with the Taliban. They are largely regarded as ISI puppets and do their bidding if it suits them. What are we negotiating?

No one is talking about importance and role of Iran in this whole game.

Why Iran prez met EAM India and what discussions done?

These all should be analysed before coming to any conclusions.

 

[another_armchair]

The Afghan army is not short of ammo, just short of fighting spirit except for some small groups.

Where will help come from?

Anyway, early days. Lets see when the Talli's make a move for Kabul.

Too early to speculate till the last US troops fly out of Afghanistan and the much anticipated move on Pakistan that is being discussed. Let's see.

 

[Lost user]

If Afghan Army decides to dig in, where do they get their supplies from?

Do they have enough ammo, vehicles etc to continue fighting the Taliban which will get its steady supply from Pakistan, Ummah and possibly China?

I don't think they do which is why most of ANA has quietly ceded territory to the Tallis and left space. What good is fighting spirit if your supplies get exhausted within a few days of intense fighting?

I wonder what discussions we are holding with the Taliban. They are largely regarded as ISI puppets and do their bidding if it suits them. What are we negotiating?

The supply lines to far flung outposts is compromised. So, even if enough ammo lands in Kabul or Bagram, there is no reliable way to get them to places where they are needed. Atleast Najibullah was able to secure the supply lines to areas under his control, for 2 years until Soviets withdrew support. But, that is not the case with Ghani gov.
Any coherent opposition had to come from the North. But the surprise Taliban rampage in the north means, means it is much harder for the opposition to come together.
Also, the Taliban has taken control of almost all the border districts and trading posts in the north, there choking supplies and revenues of the Kabul government.
Today they took control of a large trading outpost on Iran border and Turkmenistan border. The Taliban are strangling the government

 

[hit&run]

An important point made by you, one I meant to highlight but missed. With Afghanistan available, almost all terrorist camps will shift there and be pretty much unhindered. The flip side is that the Americans may feel less inhibited to target Pakistan in international forums. Pakistan’s great trick was in running with the hares and hunting with the hounds simultaneously. That may no longer be on the table. Early days still and I prefer being cautious, we will have to wait and watch.

During Kandahar hijack Americans out rightly refused to help us. Probably it was same administration of Democrats under Clinton.

On US-Pak equations I know you have quite a strong faith in good US intentions on matters pertaining to India and their commitment to have good relationships with us.

But in my case under current administration I have fully decoupled them and don’t think anything good will out from US for us. Pakistan and China are going to be net beneficiaries during Biden’s tenure. It was Pakistani and Chinese diaspora which supported him and he will not spoil that domestic equation/winning formula especially when they are very proactive and vocal on issues concerning their countries of origin.

 

[Indrajit]

Excellent read, I highly recommend.

What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

That the war went on so long may be tragic, but it is hardly surprising.

www.politico.com

“I have found no single answer to why we lost the war. While various explanations address different parts of the puzzle, the one I want to highlight here can perhaps be seen most clearly in the conversations I’ve had with the Taliban themselves, often in their native Pashto. “The Taliban fight for belief, for janat (heaven) and ghazi (killing infidels). … The army and police fight for money,” a Taliban religious scholar from Kandahar told me in 2019. “The Taliban are willing to lose their head to fight. … How can the army and police compete?”...”

“The Taliban exemplified something that inspired, something that made them powerful in battle, something tied to what it meant to be Afghan. They cast themselves as representatives of Islam and called for resistance to foreign occupation. Together, these two ideas formed a potent mix for ordinary Afghans, who tend to be devout Muslims but not extremists. Aligned with foreign occupiers, the government mustered no similar inspiration. It could not get its supporters, even if they outnumbered the Taliban, to go to the same lengths. Given its association with the Americans, the government’s claim to Islam was fraught, even while the Taliban were able to co-opt Afghans’ religiosity in service of their extremist vision. However wrongly, the Taliban could use U.S. occupation to differentiate themselves from the government as truer representatives of Islam. More Afghans were willing to serve on behalf of the government than the Taliban. But more Afghans were willing to kill and be killed for the Taliban. That edge made a difference on the battlefield.”

“

An Afghan army officer and a Taliban commander were insulting each other over their radios while shooting back and forth. The Taliban commander taunted: “You are puppets of America!” The army officer shouted back: “You are the puppets of Pakistan!” The Taliban commander replied: “The Americans are infidels. The Pakistanis are Muslims.” The Afghan officer had no response.

Or in the shorter Afghan proverb form: “Over an infidel, be happy with a weak Muslim.”...”

 

[Indrajit]

On US-Pak equations I know you have quite a strong faith in good US intentions on matters pertaining to India and their commitment to have good relationships with us.

But in my case under current administration I have fully decoupled them and don’t think anything good will out from US for us. Pakistan and China are going to be net beneficiaries during Biden’s tenure. It was Pakistani and Chinese diaspora which supported him and he will not spoil that domestic equation/winning formula especially when they are very proactive and vocal on issues concerning their countries of origin.

It’s not about faith in American intentions but an assessment of convergence of national interest in some areas with India. In any case, we have to do what we have to. With America or without.

 

[Indrajit]

During Kandahar hijack Americans out rightly refused to help us. Probably it was same administration of Democrats under Clinton.

Actually not true. India had used US help to allow for the plane to land in the UAE and also get permission for another aircraft with NSG commandos to land there and to conduct an operation if necessary. UAE authorities were spooked when a dead body of the passenger killed was offloaded there and with the terrorists threatening more deaths, they allowed the plane to leave before the NSG got there.

 

[IndianYonko]

Yeh kya hua kaise hua kab hua?

 

[Lost user]

Excellent read, I highly recommend.

What America Didn’t Understand About Its Longest War

That the war went on so long may be tragic, but it is hardly surprising.

www.politico.com

“I have found no single answer to why we lost the war. While various explanations address different parts of the puzzle, the one I want to highlight here can perhaps be seen most clearly in the conversations I’ve had with the Taliban themselves, often in their native Pashto. “The Taliban fight for belief, for janat (heaven) and ghazi (killing infidels). … The army and police fight for money,” a Taliban religious scholar from Kandahar told me in 2019. “The Taliban are willing to lose their head to fight. … How can the army and police compete?”...”

“The Taliban exemplified something that inspired, something that made them powerful in battle, something tied to what it meant to be Afghan. They cast themselves as representatives of Islam and called for resistance to foreign occupation. Together, these two ideas formed a potent mix for ordinary Afghans, who tend to be devout Muslims but not extremists. Aligned with foreign occupiers, the government mustered no similar inspiration. It could not get its supporters, even if they outnumbered the Taliban, to go to the same lengths. Given its association with the Americans, the government’s claim to Islam was fraught, even while the Taliban were able to co-opt Afghans’ religiosity in service of their extremist vision. However wrongly, the Taliban could use U.S. occupation to differentiate themselves from the government as truer representatives of Islam. More Afghans were willing to serve on behalf of the government than the Taliban. But more Afghans were willing to kill and be killed for the Taliban. That edge made a difference on the battlefield.”

“

Or in the shorter Afghan proverb form: “Over an infidel, be happy with a weak Muslim.”...”

More than the country.. Soldiers in the Indian Army fight for the honor of their platoon and Regiment (Their tribe), and for the pride that they feel by being part of the Army and the Regiment.. for which they are willing to risk their life.
The same does not seem to be true with the Afghan Armed forces..

 

[Jimih]

More than the country.. Soldiers in the Indian Army fight for the honor of their platoon and Regiment (Their tribe), and for the pride that they feel by being part of the Army and the Regiment.. for which they are willing to risk their life.

IA strives and fights for the 3 'N'

"Naam, Namak aur Nishaan"

 

[Suhaldev]

Yeh kya hua kaise hua kab hua?

So, taliban isn't designated terrorists organisation?