India opens bids in $10.4-bn combat plane tender.

[SpArK]

12 days already gone by in December.

Yes ...we will wait more.... We are Indians.

 

[agentperry]

one thing is guaranteed--- the scam and report sighting that IAF had went with inferior aircraft

 

[SADAKHUSH]

I along with other forum members have been reading the same statement about opening of the bid for $10.4 billion tender. So after 49 pages it is still sealed , Do I have to go there with a scissor to cut open the envelope? So that we can put an end to this waste of time on forum.

 

[nrj]

Don't believe it will. MRCA is very crucial and the IAF will exercise the follow on offer unless FGFA is simply too good comparatively.

MKI production has been delayed by a year, so the final lot of 42 aircraft will be delivered only by 2019, by HAL. It conflicts with Su-50 induction. The Russians have pending deliveries to Malaysia, Algeria, and Vietnam. Other than that they may receive orders from their own air force for the MKI and they have started production for Su-35 anyway.

Comparatively while MKI production ends and Su-50 starts, we can say the MRCA production will happen in parallel. So, we are adding one squadron of Su-50(may be more than one) and a squadron of MRCA every year. At the same time there is the LCA Mk2 production that will go on at a similar rate as MRCA. We will have 3 production lines for advanced aircraft by then, no point keeping a 4th open at the same time.

Starting Su-50 production would mean we are adding a superior aircraft instead of an inferior one as the MKI. So, capping MRCA numbers wouldn't mean increasing orders for MKI. Instead there may be an increase in orders for the Su-50. By then we may even know the progress of AMCA which will already be under flight tests. Why settle for less?

I'm worried about high sortie rate of MKIs in peacetime environment. It may reduce its lifetime or put them in early MLU.

I'm hopeful for Su-50 but honestly speaking very few top ranking people know about its status & delivery schedule. It'll be better if LCAMK2 & PAKFA/FGFA fill numbers simultaneously with MRCA, which would indeed help. So far IAF commitment on MK2 is not very clear, even though they believe that MK2 will be up-to-date than MRCAs post 2017.

Regarding AMCA, I think things will move fast once IAF person is included in HAL board. Much depends on MRCA result & May budget imo.

 

[p2prada]

I'm worried about high sortie rate of MKIs in peacetime environment. It may reduce its lifetime or put them in early MLU.

The current rate will reduce in time. New platforms always do a lot more and reduces during it's last legs. Mirage-2000s do 100 hours a year.

I'm hopeful for Su-50 but honestly speaking very few top ranking people know about its status & delivery schedule.

Of course, but we can look at production starting before 2020, considering FOC alone is in 2016-17.

It'll be better if LCAMK2 & PAKFA/FGFA fill numbers simultaneously with MRCA, which would indeed help. So far IAF commitment on MK2 is not very clear, even though they believe that MK2 will be up-to-date than MRCAs post 2017.

With the current plan, according to ACM Browne, we will have 42.5 squadrons by 2022. This is perhaps without exercising the follow on MRCA option. I am guessing he has assumed MRCA production for 126 jets will end in 2022. That's 6 years for 6 squadrons from 2017 onwards apart from the first squadron in 2015. Add 3 squadrons of Mig-29, 2 squadrons of Mirage-2000 and 7 squadrons of Jaguar to the mix. Apart from LCA and Su-50, and assuming the Mig-21 and Mig-27 are phased out, we know MKI(15), MRCA(7), Mig-29, M-2000 and Jaguar will make 34 squadrons or 33.5 squadrons to be exact. 2 squadrons of LCA have already been ordered. So, bring the total to 35.5.

The remaining 7 squadrons will be shared between LCA Mk2 and Su-50. If we consider 1 squadron a year for both aircraft and assuming full rate production and deliveries have begun in 2019. Then by 2022 we will have 3 squadrons of LCA Mk2 and 3 squadrons of Su-50. Considering one squadron of Su-50 will already be inducted by 2017, we can make it to 4 squadrons of Su-50 by 2022(out of 11, known). So, we got our remaining 7 squadrons. Hence 42.5 squadrons.

The follow on orders for MRCA will be needed to replace the Mirage-2000s and a follow on of Su-50 orders to replace our Mig-29s after 2025.

Our air force is quite well planned to take on both PLAAF and PAF with quality and quantity. PAF will have 26 squadrons of aircraft by then. PLAAF works differently and don't have squadrons as such. They will at least have 1200 J-10s/J-XXs and 400-700 Flankers/J-20s, maybe not by 2022 but eventually they will.

Regarding AMCA, I think things will move fast once IAF person is included in HAL board. Much depends on MRCA result & May budget imo.

AMCA orders will be needed to replace the Jags and build a larger air force. We are going to need 120 to replace the Jags and then add 300 or 400 or 500 or (addnumberhere)00 to match China's buildup after 2025-30.

By this time the MKIs will be falling apart and need to be replaced by a 6th gen fighter.

BTW, no air force official will run HAL. Govt has declined the offer. Rather there will be more synergy.

 

[nrj]

The current rate will reduce in time. New platforms always do a lot more and reduces during it's last legs. Mirage-2000s do 100 hours a year.

I hope their sortie rate will come down, which is ofcourse implication that compensatory platforms are passing FOC.

Of course, but we can look at production starting before 2020, considering FOC alone is in 2016-17.

FOC for PAKFA by 2016-17 is quite achievable. FGFA will take few more years over that.

With the current plan, according to ACM Browne, we will have 42.5 squadrons by 2022. This is perhaps without exercising the follow on MRCA option. I am guessing he has assumed MRCA production for 126 jets will end in 2022. That's 6 years for 6 squadrons from 2017 onwards apart from the first squadron in 2015. Add 3 squadrons of Mig-29, 2 squadrons of Mirage-2000 and 7 squadrons of Jaguar to the mix. Apart from LCA and Su-50, and assuming the Mig-21 and Mig-27 are phased out, we know MKI(15), MRCA(7), Mig-29, M-2000 and Jaguar will make 34 squadrons or 33.5 squadrons to be exact. 2 squadrons of LCA have already been ordered. So, bring the total to 35.5.

Who knows if MRCAs prove to be economical due to offset advantage & program show potential for future development, we may end up increasing numbers ? (immediate declaration of same isn't really obligation now )

The follow on orders for MRCA will be needed to replace the Mirage-2000s and a follow on of Su-50 orders to replace our Mig-29s after 2025.

M2K upgrade shouldnt be taking this long. If that schedule gets delayed maybe MRCA follow on orders will come down. And yes Su-50 orders will grow without doubt replacing Mig29s, IAF Northern command seems to be pretty firm on it.

Our air force is quite well planned to take on both PLAAF and PAF with quality and quantity. PAF will have 26 squadrons of aircraft by then. PLAAF works differently and don't have squadrons as such. They will at least have 1200 J-10s/J-XXs and 400-700 Flankers/J-20s, maybe not by 2022 but eventually they will.

We need total air superiority to control PLAAF imo.

AMCA orders will be needed to replace the Jags and build a larger air force. We are going to need 120 to replace the Jags and then add 300 or 400 or 500 or (addnumberhere)00 to match China's buildup after 2025-30.

AMCA prototype delivery timeframe & same meeting ASQR is crucial to determine its numbers and Jaguar replacement.

By this time the MKIs will be falling apart and need to be replaced by a 6th gen fighter.

And we'll be discussing about importing F/A-XX or revising AURA MK2 specs

BTW, no air force official will run HAL. Govt has declined the offer. Rather there will be more synergy.

Sad to know. Why political leadership fear uniforms? CDS pending too.

 

[Galaxy]

[h=1]MMRCA procurement at contract negotiations stage: Antony[/h]

 

[anoop_mig25]

would GoI would be negotiating with winner after declaring its name or before declaring its name

 

[Koovie]

so this means they have found the lowest bidder?

 

[p2prada]

I hope their sortie rate will come down, which is ofcourse implication that compensatory platforms are passing FOC.

Not worried about it. MKI will be going through MLUs anyway.

M2K upgrade shouldnt be taking this long. If that schedule gets delayed maybe MRCA follow on orders will come down. And yes Su-50 orders will grow without doubt replacing Mig29s, IAF Northern command seems to be pretty firm on it.

M-2000 will be upgraded at 1 every 2 months for the next 9 years.

We need total air superiority to control PLAAF imo.

Impossible for either of us. We have plenty of aircraft and the battlespace won't fit everything there. Squadrons will be replaced or replinished in case of major losses. Air denial is possible for both sides.

AMCA prototype delivery timeframe & same meeting ASQR is crucial to determine its numbers and Jaguar replacement.

AMCA's success is hypothetical looking at LCA right now.

Sad to know. Why political leadership fear uniforms? CDS pending too.

The Air force is better off running their own show rather than interfering in the industrial complex. We don't want our top leadership to become like the Pakistanis. They know more about running the country badly than winning a war, which they are paid for. They have become more like "Ghar ka na Ghat ka." They can neither run a country nor fight a war.

Better synergy between the two will be better off because the civilian directors will be very unhappy if an Air force guy is dictating everything. More importantly, if something goes wrong then the Air force will be blamed for it.

 

[Yusuf]

would GoI would be negotiating with winner after declaring its name or before declaring its name

so this means they have found the lowest bidder?

Nope they call the two of them and start negotiating on their quoted price. May be play one against the other with some leaks (bluffs) and see if they can hammer the prices down further from the quoted price. Thats how it works in other government contracts. I am sure that will be the case here.

 

[agentperry]

with weak indian rupee, the deal will be disaster if opened right now. 10 billion dollar today is 54000 crore vs 44000 crore some years back. direct loss of 10000 crores.

 

[p2prada]

I have seen a lot of discussions where people bring in this Dollar Rupee muddle. It is not the case. Actually it is Euro Rupee, but it still does not make a difference.

The sum amount will all be in Euros and not in Rupees. The deal will take 15 years to finish, so money is spent throughout the decade and not in a one off transaction. ToT and materials will come in as and when MoF releases funding in phases.

So, what is 62 to a Euro today could well become 10 to a Euro in 2020. The companies want Euro and not Rupees. So, the current exchange rate shouldn't matter in the long run. The Rupee may stabilize in a few months as it always has, so this may happen even before the contract is signed.

 

[agentperry]

I have seen a lot of discussions where people bring in this Dollar Rupee muddle. It is not the case. Actually it is Euro Rupee, but it still does not make a difference.

The sum amount will all be in Euros and not in Rupees. The deal will take 15 years to finish, so money is spent throughout the decade and not in a one off transaction. ToT and materials will come in as and when MoF releases funding in phases.

So, what is 62 to a Euro today could well become 10 to a Euro in 2020. The companies want Euro and not Rupees. So, the current exchange rate shouldn't matter in the long run. The Rupee may stabilize in a few months as it always has, so this may happen even before the contract is signed.

reason for your optimism. international transaction still takes place in dollar terms. moreover India will pay the amount decided at the time of purchase which will be sealed forever

 

[nrj]

Its not like MoD is cutting a cheque right away. Exchange rate is minor issue.

 

[bhramos]

MMRCA procurement at contract negotiations stage: Antony -  

 

[bhramos]

BAE Systems inks Hawk support deal in India

 

[p2prada]

reason for your optimism. international transaction still takes place in dollar terms. moreover India will pay the amount decided at the time of purchase which will be sealed forever

International transaction with Europe takes place in Euros. All other countries in Dollars. UK we can have Pounds or Euro and Japan in Yen.

China may follow suit in a few years once Yuan is more proven.

Had we chosen Gripen, we would have dealt in Swedish Kronor, not Euro, not Dollar.

The decision to chose one of these currencies is upto the company.

As for why I am optimistic, if this is even required because it is quite obvious, a deal like the MRCA will take place over a decade. Currency transactions will not differ because contract will not have Rupee amounts, only Euros. Rupee will strengthen as India's economy grows. We may even have 5 to a Dollar by the start of next decade. We cannot say for sure. We may end up like Japan and have 100 to a Dollar as well.

 

[weg]

As for why I am optimistic, if this is even required because it is quite obvious, a deal like the MRCA will take place over a decade. Currency transactions will not differ because contract will not have Rupee amounts, only Euros. Rupee will strengthen as India's economy grows.ll.

You are probably right and the Euro is going down, long term.

 

[ace009]

hy the hell is the Rupee doing so badly against the Euro or the Dollar? The US and European economy is in shambles - compared to that Indian economy is doing much better ...
Is it due to INR inflation?