India-China Border conflict

[Knowitall]

Do u really believe while war ll be going on china ll be manufacturing fighter jet to replace its lost jets ?? Is that how fighter jets are made ... Pushing the button in factory and a new fighter jet flying to LAC in next 48 hrs ? Alu dalo sona niklega scheme ..
Why do u think IAF has nt arrenged enough spare parts for its fighter jets for a war ... Are they dumb ? In operation gagan shakti they did 11k shorties in 13 day .. Do u think without rapid service and spare parts availability it was possible ?

Do u really believe while war ll be going on china ll be manufacturing fighter jet to replace its lost jets ??

What is this statement like seriously i don't get it. Every single country ups their production during wartime which also includes the production of aircraft. This has literally been the norm since ww1 and every country has done this including India.

Our first indigenous aircraft HAL HF-24 Marut too had reached 70 percent indigenization and HAL had plans to manufacture 2 aircraft a month in wartime situations.

As for your second point during Balakot and Galwan we saw a slew of emergency purchases from both Russia and Israel to fill our capability gaps. Some of these missiles and equipment arrived as late as 2 months.

India requests quick delivery of missiles, ammo from Russia; Amethi factory to launch before summit

It is learnt that India has requested in particular for Igla S anti air missiles, assault rifles and ammunition for various Russian origin systems – things that would be needed if the border conflict with China is extended over the coming weeks.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Army, Navy, Air Force get three more months to buy weapons under emergency clause

Amid the ongoing border conflict with China, the Modi government has given three more months to the defence forces for buying weapon systems under the emergency clause to be better prepared for warfighting.

www.indiatoday.in

Gagan shakti was a planned exercise and equipment was already in place. Wartime situation can be much different.

 

[sachincba]

True in fact in some domains the chinese did have an outright edge over us despite their lack of experience in the overall theatre.

Their deployment speed and the ability to move the bulk of their tail end units in matter of days is truly remarkable. They had a well established solid logistics chain which showed it's resilience with the constant induction and de-induction of troops at a fast pace.

Better gear and equipment (Ex: Riot shields and vests) along with good a surveillance network. If i am not mistaken i remember reading about chinese camps in despang being as far as 7 km away while Indian camps were around 3 km away but they were still able to intercept our patrols due to better inputs.

They also have a better strategy in place and a set of objectives towards which they have been working throughout the years with varying degrees of success. The cohesion between civilians and the PLA is also excellent which enables them to properly leverage the grey zones and our diplomatic corps.

In some domains they have a huge lead. Their arms manufacturing capabilities dwarf anything we have in comparison they can churn out more of anything which is extremely important in a high intensity war. They have a solid supply or spares due to inhouse construction and design while ours is very unreliable.

At the end of the day it really comes down to how well each side can exploit it's advantage. If china can properly leverage it's deployment speed along with a better intel network and the aggressors advantage they could try and knock out the IAF which is the weakest branch due to the lack of numbers and the inability to withstand attrition out of the fight in a matter of hours or days. In such a scenario it will become extremely difficult for the army to hold on to major sectors or mount offenses in any meaningful way.

If India on the other hand can manage to repeal such a surprise attack through scattering and high temp sorties we can very well contest for air domination and give the army sufficient rooms for long drawn battles which could then result in China finally giving up due to increasing diplomatic pressure isolation if they are unable to score major victories which would be a massive blow to their superpower dreams while our prestige would grow manifolds for stopping a superpower in progress.

It could turn upside down again if India is unable to garner enough diplomatic support which would then lead to a a battle of attrition where India is severely disadvantaged and this is something that we must avoid at all costs due to the weakness of our manufacturing Industries.

China will never like a battle of attrition. It will be almost impossible for them to hold any area during winters. Plus when the body bags start going home, even CCP can fall because Chinese people have no appetite for battle. Add international pressure to the scene.

They will go for capturing area swiftly and then fall back quickly to show that their intention was to punish India. But, we will not let them go back so easily this time.

 

[doreamon]

What is this statement like seriously i don't get it. Every single country ups their production during wartime which also includes the production of aircraft. This has literally been the norm since ww1 and every country has done this including India.

Our first indigenous aircraft HAL HF-24 Marut too had reached 70 percent indigenization and HAL had plans to manufacture 2 aircraft a month in wartime situations.

As for your second point during Balakot and Galwan we saw a slew of emergency purchases from both Russia and Israel to fill our capability gaps. Some of these missiles and equipment arrived as late as 2 months.

India requests quick delivery of missiles, ammo from Russia; Amethi factory to launch before summit

It is learnt that India has requested in particular for Igla S anti air missiles, assault rifles and ammunition for various Russian origin systems – things that would be needed if the border conflict with China is extended over the coming weeks.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Army, Navy, Air Force get three more months to buy weapons under emergency clause

Amid the ongoing border conflict with China, the Modi government has given three more months to the defence forces for buying weapon systems under the emergency clause to be better prepared for warfighting.

www.indiatoday.in

Gagan shakti was a planned exercise and equipment was already in place. Wartime situation can be much different.

Giving example of world war 1 with respect to indo china conflict .. World war 1 lasted for 4 years .. Those days are gone .

Yes there was emergency purchase after PLA made advancement . It gave us time to be prepared better ... Like any other countries wld do . Even PLAF made many preparation on their side . But giving such general statements as in war IAF wont last hours / days because they purchased foreign equipments and just on the basis of feelings of anxity is wrong .

 

[mokoman]

There is zero scope for war , 2 front or 1 front.

makes no sense for Chinese to start one over some small peices of land in AP or ladakh.

we wont start one either - cause u know

only possibility remaining is *any* sort of action that is below threshold of war , goal will be to capture some peice of land . for sake of negotiation.

if u think China will start one , plz tell me over what territory they will want to start one over . what will their end goal be

 

[Knowitall]

Giving example of world war 1 with respect to indo china conflict .. World war 1 lasted for 4 years .. Those days are gone .

Yes there was emergency purchase after PLA made advancement . It gave us time to be prepared better ... Like any other countries wld do . Even PLAF made many preparation on their side . But giving such general statements as in war IAF wont last hours / days because they purchased foreign equipments and just on the basis of feelings of anxity is wrong .

Don't put words into my mouth did you even read my statements properly. As for production is cold war and kargil war too old for you?

I said in case of a successful preemptive strike. First read my answer properly and as i said in the next para Indian airforce can evade that fight for air domination.

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

 

[mokoman]

really sucks for the people there.

look at the water

 

[Abdus Salem killed]

There is zero scope for war , 2 front or 1 front.

makes no sense for Chinese to start one over some small peices of land in AP or ladakh.

we wont start one either - cause u know

only possibility remaining is *any* sort of action that is below threshold of war , goal will be to capture some peice of land . for sake of negotiation.

if u think China will start one , plz tell me over what territory they will want to start one over . what will their end goal be

Taking over Ladakh and Arunachal

 

[Jimih]

Taking over Ladakh and Arunachal

Nope mate.

It's all posturing.

India is no more pushover, and saying this without being a Fanboy.

 

[sorcerer]

The next wave of fast spreading wuhan virus will spread from china via nepal to India.


China’s Covid-19 outbreak developing rapidly, virus control situation complicated, says health official

China’s Covid-19 outbreak developing rapidly, virus control situation complicated, says health official

China’s latest outbreak of Covid-19 cases is developing rapidly, a health official said, adding that the virus control situation is severe and complicated.

www.indiatoday.in

China Imposes New Curbs Over "Serious" Covid Outbreak

China Imposes New Curbs Over "Serious" Covid Outbreak

Beijing introduced new Covid-19 curbs on Saturday to stamp out a "serious" outbreak as the Chinese capital maintains its strict zero-tolerance policy, with less than 100 days before it hosts the Winter Olympics.

www.ndtv.com

India would need to keep a tight lid on border control.
if china says serious..that means its already fucked up and getting to a FUBAR in xina

 

[mist_consecutive]

There is zero scope for war , 2 front or 1 front.

makes no sense for Chinese to start one over some small peices of land in AP or ladakh.

we wont start one either - cause u know

only possibility remaining is *any* sort of action that is below threshold of war , goal will be to capture some peice of land . for sake of negotiation.

if u think China will start one , plz tell me over what territory they will want to start one over . what will their end goal be

You are completely wrong nibba.

First of all, you are thinking from a democracy's point of view. China isn't looking for gaining any resources or strategic advantage by capturing these lands, they already have both in Ladakh and Arunachal.
It's about announcing their world dominance, bringing their glory days back, sending a message to its rivals that China is not someone to be messed with, and finally, eliminating future competition.

Now, why now (2020-2025) period? The reason is, China is in its best condition right now to fight a war, and the difference in strength and geopolitical situation is ideal.

Economical reasons:-

• India is heavily dependent on Chinese markets for importing raw materials now, thanks to the UPA rule Suffocating us will be easy.
• The Chinese economy is nearly at its peak, its production capacity and human resources at their peak. 10 years from now that will steadily decline, plateau, or maybe even dip depending on circumstances.

Military reasons :-

• India is struggling with manufacturing its own weapons and we are still heavily reliant on foreign weapons. A war of equal powers is a war of attrition, and China can fight that very well now.
• Our airforce was at weakest (now steadily recovering with induction of Rafale & Tejas), our Army is still at its weakest, thanks to previous two decades of corruption, incompetent governments and wrong decisions.
• China has better infrastrucutre than India at border areas, but India is catching up very quickly. Within 2025 we will be nearly par with them at 100% of the LAC points.

Geopolitical reasons :-

• Pakistan has accumulated a large armed forces relative to its GDP or size, and is willing to help China with its body and soul.
• The fall of Afghanistan has ensured a lot of Taliban and other militia mercenaries are now free to be bought and be used as a proxy (we are already seeing it in Kashmir).
• Weak NATO leader (America) has regressed due to its own internal turmoil (LGBTQ/BLM/Woke culture) and will not be proactive in defending its allies (India, Taiwan, Japan).

==================================================================

What territory they will start -

• Depsang + DBO (Chinese armoured thrust, will fall quickly)
• Gogra peninsula (we are surrounded by 3 sides, we have only 1 supply line)
• Karakoram pass + Siachen (after DBO falls), might be assisted by Pakistani
• NEFA Arunachal Pradesh, they can take control of snowly passes and upper valleys, but controlling any further won't be possible. So shallow incursions in upper valleys.
• Simultaneous Pakistani armour thrust in Rajasthan + Punjab to stretch our forces.
• Simultaneous attacks on Kashmir from Jammu-Sialkot sector, a large number of guerrillas pushed into Kashmir.

End goal -

• Snatching parts of Ladakh & Kashmir. Whatever they can get. Afghanistanization of Kashmir using militants.
• Snatching parts of Arunachal Pradesh, dominate the passes to establish a strategic presence for any future conflict.
• Teaching India a lesson, and sending a message to the world. Weak countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar will just give up without a fight after this.
• Heavily crippling Indian economy and war reserves, so that we won't become a threat to them in the next 50 years.

 

[mokoman]

You are completely wrong nibba.

First of all, you are thinking from a democracy's point of view. China isn't looking for gaining any resources or strategic advantage by capturing these lands, they already have both in Ladakh and Arunachal.
It's about announcing their world dominance, bringing their glory days back, sending a message to its rivals that China is not someone to be messed with, and finally, eliminating future competition.

Now, why now (2020-2025) period? The reason is, China is in its best condition right now to fight a war, and the difference in strength and geopolitical situation is ideal.

Economical reasons:-

• India is heavily dependent on Chinese markets for importing raw materials now, thanks to the UPA rule Suffocating us will be easy.
• The Chinese economy is nearly at its peak, its production capacity and human resources at their peak. 10 years from now that will steadily decline, plateau, or maybe even dip depending on circumstances.

Military reasons :-

• India is struggling with manufacturing its own weapons and we are still heavily reliant on foreign weapons. A war of equal powers is a war of attrition, and China can fight that very well now.
• Our airforce was at weakest (now steadily recovering with induction of Rafale & Tejas), our Army is still at its weakest, thanks to previous two decades of corruption, incompetent governments and wrong decisions.
• China has better infrastrucutre than India at border areas, but India is catching up very quickly. Within 2025 we will be nearly par with them at 100% of the LAC points.

Geopolitical reasons :-

• Pakistan has accumulated a large armed forces relative to its GDP or size, and is willing to help China with its body and soul.
• The fall of Afghanistan has ensured a lot of Taliban and other militia mercenaries are now free to be bought and be used as a proxy (we are already seeing it in Kashmir).
• Weak NATO leader (America) has regressed due to its own internal turmoil (LGBTQ/BLM/Woke culture) and will not be proactive in defending its allies (India, Taiwan, Japan).

==================================================================

What territory they will start -

• Depsang + DBO (Chinese armoured thrust, will fall quickly)
• Gogra peninsula (we are surrounded by 3 sides, we have only 1 supply line)
• Karakoram pass + Siachen (after DBO falls), might be assisted by Pakistani
• NEFA Arunachal Pradesh, they can take control of snowly passes and upper valleys, but controlling any further won't be possible. So shallow incursions in upper valleys.
• Simultaneous Pakistani armour thrust in Rajasthan + Punjab to stretch our forces.
• Simultaneous attacks on Kashmir from Jammu-Sialkot sector, a large number of guerrillas pushed into Kashmir.

End goal -

• Snatching parts of Ladakh & Kashmir. Whatever they can get. Afghanistanization of Kashmir using militants.
• Snatching parts of Arunachal Pradesh, dominate the passes to establish a strategic presence for any future conflict.
• Teaching India a lesson, and sending a message to the world. Weak countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar will just give up without a fight after this.
• Heavily crippling Indian economy and war reserves, so that we won't become a threat to them in the next 50 years.

u just listed the chinese fantasy.

my argument is simply , either all of that will happen which is insanely impossible (this isnt 1962) or nothing.

there is no inbetween - once they resort to hot weapons - shit will hit the fan.

Chinese wouldnt want that , simply because there is no guarantee , instead of teaching India a lesson , they may well get humiliated , and they very well know this.

 

[srevster]

I have a theory, the restriction of Beidou GPS systems is to switch to the fiber optic radio towers they installed. I’m guessing each tower has its GPS coordinates logged. The Chinese plan to use the timing signals from the towers to enable positioning while suppressing that capability for India

 

[mist_consecutive]

u just listed the chinese fantasy.

my argument is simply , either all of that will happen which is insanely impossible (this isnt 1962) or nothing.

there is no inbetween - once they resort to hot weapons - shit will hit the fan.

Chinese wouldnt want that , simply because there is no guarantee , instead of teaching India a lesson , they may well get humiliated , and they very well know this.

Well, I listed the possibilities for Chinese, of course never said all these will happen. Some might, (like an attack on Depsang + DBO).

Notice I did not write a single Indian-side scenario, I just listed why they will attack with what motive in mind.

 

[mokoman]

Well, I listed the possibilities for Chinese, of course never said all these will happen. Some might, (like an attack on Depsang + DBO).

Notice I did not write a single Indian-side scenario, I just listed why they will attack with what motive in mind.

you are right about depsang , DBO and gogra .

but the thing is , chinese are not asking for any of that . they are not pushing their claims in their press release.

if they wanted just gogra tip , they could have taken it last year. we literally had no presence there in july.

if they use tanks,artys,rockets to take *anything* , we will take something from them . maybe chumbi . so there will be war along the entire LAC.

i just dont see the Chinese doing that

if u think there will be war , give us a date then

 

[mist_consecutive]

you are right about depsang , DBO and gogra .

but the thing is , chinese are not asking for any of that . they are not pushing their claims in their press release.

if they wanted just gogra tip , they could have taken it last year. we literally had no presence there in july.

Well, then what is the point of all these mujra then? They really wanted 1km of barren rocky land by spending millions in sustaining a large force for 1.5 years and soldiers dying due to cold and broken necks ?

What they probably thought -> We will cave and give in to their early demands (our infrastructure in Ladakh, their claims on F4, etc). We did not and instead reinforced so now they are in a catch 22 situation.

What they now decided -> They will teach us a lesson because we tried to challenge them, especially after the Kailash ridge capture. Reason you see accelerated development of air fields as well as arming Pakistan with SAMs and jets.

if they use tanks,artys,rockets to take *anything* , we will take something from them . maybe chumbi . so there will be war along the entire LAC.

i just dont see the Chinese doing that

Yep, our counter-attacks will be in central sector (opposite Sumdo, H.P), Chumbi valley, and Tawang.

if u think there will be war , give us a date then

According to encrypted communication, I am hearing from deployed commanders on the Chinese border, it might start on 29th Feb 2022.

 

[sachincba]

Well, then what is the point of all these mujra then? They really wanted 1km of barren rocky land by spending millions in sustaining a large force for 1.5 years and soldiers dying due to cold and broken necks ?

What they probably thought -> We will cave and give in to their early demands (our infrastructure in Ladakh, their claims on F4, etc). We did not and instead reinforced so now they are in a catch 22 situation.

What they now decided -> They will teach us a lesson because we tried to challenge them, especially after the Kailash ridge capture. Reason you see accelerated development of air fields as well as arming Pakistan with SAMs and jets.



Yep, our counter-attacks will be in central sector (opposite Sumdo, H.P), Chumbi valley, and Tawang.



According to encrypted communication, I am hearing from deployed commanders on the Chinese border, it might start on 29th Feb 2022.

India has shown spine on the border. Now, Chinese can't bear Indians showing spine. For them, their time has come to prove they are superpower. India should have already kowtowed. But no. So, they will aim to teach Indians a lesson.
Some of our areas are vulnerable, like Depsang. We can't and we shouldn't aim to repel Chinese from where they attack.
We will play to our strengths . Apart from counter-capturing large tracts of land, if we become successful in killing and capturing a large number of Chinese, all Chinese objectives will fail. Kills they will try to deny. But having a handful of Chinese as hostage will bow Chinese during negotiations because their propaganda will fail if we were to release their footage. Loss of face is much bigger threat for them than the loss of claims and loss of favorable boundary settlement.

 

[Cheran]

lol, warning the entire g20. I mean, even for wolf pup warriors, this is a bit insane

 

[Jimih]

What territory they will start -

• Depsang + DBO (Chinese armoured thrust, will fall quickly)
• Gogra peninsula (we are surrounded by 3 sides, we have only 1 supply line)
• Karakoram pass + Siachen (after DBO falls), might be assisted by Pakistani
• NEFA Arunachal Pradesh, they can take control of snowly passes and upper valleys, but controlling any further won't be possible. So shallow incursions in upper valleys.
• Simultaneous Pakistani armour thrust in Rajasthan + Punjab to stretch our forces.
• Simultaneous attacks on Kashmir from Jammu-Sialkot sector, a large number of guerrillas pushed into Kashmir.

End goal -

• Snatching parts of Ladakh & Kashmir. Whatever they can get. Afghanistanization of Kashmir using militants.
• Snatching parts of Arunachal Pradesh, dominate the passes to establish a strategic presence for any future conflict.
• Teaching India a lesson, and sending a message to the world. Weak countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar will just give up without a fight after this.
• Heavily crippling Indian economy and war reserves, so that we won't become a threat to them in the next 50 years.

Not bad analysis. Seems plausible. But again you are writing this through China's POV.

In exam sometimes questions come out of syllabus. Don't you think India has wargamed all of this, it surely did.

Time to ponder over why IN was at SCS aftermath Galwan episode?

 

[Viper316]

You are completely wrong nibba.

First of all, you are thinking from a democracy's point of view. China isn't looking for gaining any resources or strategic advantage by capturing these lands, they already have both in Ladakh and Arunachal.
It's about announcing their world dominance, bringing their glory days back, sending a message to its rivals that China is not someone to be messed with, and finally, eliminating future competition.

Now, why now (2020-2025) period? The reason is, China is in its best condition right now to fight a war, and the difference in strength and geopolitical situation is ideal.

Economical reasons:-

• India is heavily dependent on Chinese markets for importing raw materials now, thanks to the UPA rule Suffocating us will be easy.
• The Chinese economy is nearly at its peak, its production capacity and human resources at their peak. 10 years from now that will steadily decline, plateau, or maybe even dip depending on circumstances.

Military reasons :-

• India is struggling with manufacturing its own weapons and we are still heavily reliant on foreign weapons. A war of equal powers is a war of attrition, and China can fight that very well now.
• Our airforce was at weakest (now steadily recovering with induction of Rafale & Tejas), our Army is still at its weakest, thanks to previous two decades of corruption, incompetent governments and wrong decisions.
• China has better infrastrucutre than India at border areas, but India is catching up very quickly. Within 2025 we will be nearly par with them at 100% of the LAC points.

Geopolitical reasons :-

• Pakistan has accumulated a large armed forces relative to its GDP or size, and is willing to help China with its body and soul.
• The fall of Afghanistan has ensured a lot of Taliban and other militia mercenaries are now free to be bought and be used as a proxy (we are already seeing it in Kashmir).
• Weak NATO leader (America) has regressed due to its own internal turmoil (LGBTQ/BLM/Woke culture) and will not be proactive in defending its allies (India, Taiwan, Japan).

==================================================================

What territory they will start -

• Depsang + DBO (Chinese armoured thrust, will fall quickly)
• Gogra peninsula (we are surrounded by 3 sides, we have only 1 supply line)
• Karakoram pass + Siachen (after DBO falls), might be assisted by Pakistani
• NEFA Arunachal Pradesh, they can take control of snowly passes and upper valleys, but controlling any further won't be possible. So shallow incursions in upper valleys.
• Simultaneous Pakistani armour thrust in Rajasthan + Punjab to stretch our forces.
• Simultaneous attacks on Kashmir from Jammu-Sialkot sector, a large number of guerrillas pushed into Kashmir.

End goal -

• Snatching parts of Ladakh & Kashmir. Whatever they can get. Afghanistanization of Kashmir using militants.
• Snatching parts of Arunachal Pradesh, dominate the passes to establish a strategic presence for any future conflict.
• Teaching India a lesson, and sending a message to the world. Weak countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar will just give up without a fight after this.
• Heavily crippling Indian economy and war reserves, so that we won't become a threat to them in the next 50 years.

I agree with your point that unlike India, China is not Democratic. But china wont confront India directly to a war even small scale as china will be isolated by west. A grand military alliance may be built against chinese ambitious goals.

Why would china take a risk of losing billions of trade with India just for small peace of land.
Instead china is already using its proxy (pak) to bleed & contain indias growth. China has been enpowering pak with weapons and fighter jets. They will force pak to use those weapons against India. We have been hearing already that company of PLA officials working with PA at LoC to assist terrorist infiltration. China will continue to hold pressure on pain points at LAC so that our reaources stay scattered. Pak already sending large no of jihadis, we are in a fix now neither we cud retaliate or end ceasefire.

My opinion is either we need settle border dispute with china on mutual benefits or play the bad boy. We need to take on the weaker adversary (pak) and decimate it completely, make a statement to china and world that we are back to our of glorious past.