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You know what is the problem in most of Chinas analysis. People assume that China is a rational actor. Or maybe, things that they do might be rational to them, but highly irrational to us.China will not fight a full fledged or even limited war with India. They know this to be a fatal mistake. A full fledged or limited war between India or China only benefits one country: America. How so? India and China would be engaged in a slugfest of a war, and whoever comes out on top, both the countries will be damaged and set back 50 years.
Now now, the reason China will not engage in this misadventure is not because they have any care for our economic and global status, on the contrary, they actively want to weaken us. But they don’t want to suffer losses while doing so. Instead, the Chinese have come up with a master plan to take what they feel is their appropriate claim lines; salami slicing. AKA- they will infiltrate during the winter and start patrolling no man’s land, while simultaneously distracting us with talks, while they build up and then launch a local offensive under the guise of self Defence. This is what happened in Galwan in 2020. The way the PLA were equipped in the videos makes it clear they were prepping for a brawl. If y’all do not remember, in April and May of 2020, there were reports of Indian and Chinese patrols clashing, and the Chinese were accusing us of aggression, even though they are the ones committing it.
They enjoy a logistical advantage over us in Ladakh, so this will work there. In Arunachal, well, Doklam and the Tawang 2021 clashes were a clear Indian victory, and even the Chinese admit we got the better of Doklam in an article.
Through my reading of many books (Including the Long Game) and articles (on ORF, on Baidu) , I have come to realise few fundamental points :
1) China doesn't sees India as an equal partner. And they like it that way. (Imo, most fundamental issue in the relationship)
2) China sees India through US prism. No matter what India does, (as has been done many times by now) - whether it creates distance with the US, closes in with US, balances or bandwagons. China calculates that it's technological and proximity might will allow it to overwhelm India alone but will get complicated if it gets alongwith the US. BUT they won't try to mitigate it or improve their own relations with India. Because that will be giving concessions and make obligations to India. They don't find India that worthy enough.
3) China wants to keeps its options open. And foremost among managing India, they like to cause trouble for India at borders. Because to them, that's a solid pressure point for India. So they won't in any way ever compromise on that issue. No matter what India becomes unless it favours them. They will like to continue trade (heavily in their favour of course) and will like India to forget about the borders. Due to some previous mistakes, the border problem overall favours China when we do negotiations. So Jaishankar tactic is to stonewall everything China offers because it's not going to equal anyway.
These are all irrational to our minds, but to China it's perfectly normal because to them India is not worth spending that much diplomatic capital on.